Frank Thomas vs. Derek Jeter

[Eminor3rd]

Frank is a Hall of Famer. We all love him more than most. We all obviously think he should have gotten in. But there was legitimate question, maybe even worry, among us that he might not get in on the first ballot. We were all pleasantly surprised at 80%+.

 

There's talk about Derek Jeter being the first ever unanimous, first ballot choice. Some people call him among the best ten players of alltime. No one on Earth questions his worthiness of the HOF, nor his chances to get in on the first ballot. People consider 95%+ a given.

 

Yet, take a look at these charts: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=255,826

 

By fWAR to date, thus implying total value added during regular seasons, Derek Jeter and Frank Thomas are almost identical, with 73.7 and 72.4 respectively over 18 seasons. By this measure, Jeter has been just one Connor Gillaspie season better than Thomas.

 

So my topic titled rephrased: what makes Jeter a member of the baseball Mt. Rushmore? I think the voters evaluated Thomas very fairly, so I'm not going to argue that he should be up there too. But was Derek Jeter... gulp... overrated?

 

The simple answer is playoff prowess. His playoff slash line is eerily similar to his career line to date -- a sexy 121 wRC+ over a staggering 158 games. But while 121 wRC+ is really nice, it isn't up to snuff with his peak seasons, nor really with the peak seasons of any HOFer of this era. So his playoff performance essentially adds up to one extra season of career-average Jetering.

 

I'm not saying Jeter wasn't better than Frank. After this additional season and with the playoffs factored in, it's a clear case. But I think Jeter may really be more like a top 25-35 player, not a top ten guy. What say you?

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

He's absolutely not a top 10 player ever. I'm not sure he's top 50 ever. He is a OF'er. The only reasons he's being blown up like he is is A) his off-field and professional demeanor, which has been excellent and B) He led so many Yankees teams to the post-season as their captain.

 

He's vastly overrated, but no doubt a hall of famer. Excellent hitting SS who led the empire to so many post-season wins, a leader in every sense, and an average (at best, across his career) defensive shortstop.

 

[southsider2k5]

If Greg Maddux didn't get 100%, Derick Jeter won't.

[witesoxfan]

I'm glad you brought this up, and I will comment seriously on this later, but initially, I just want to add YEAH JEETS YEAH JEETS

[Reddy]

Derek Jeter is statistically the worst defensive player of all time.

 

ALL. TIME.

 

That doesn't merit you top 10 best players ever.

[southsider2k5]

Derek Jeter is statistically the worst defensive player of all time.

 

ALL. TIME.

 

That doesn't merit you top 10 best players ever.

 

That is funny in a thread that includes Frank Thomas's name.

[Quin]

Frank was a much scarier hitter.

[LittleHurt05]

It's funny that Jeter is given so much credit for the Yankees' success in such a team sport, where each player has such a limited impact on the game.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Derek Jeter is statistically the worst defensive player of all time.

 

ALL. TIME.

 

That doesn't merit you top 10 best players ever.

I believe this but by what metric?

[Balta1701]

I believe this but by what metric?

Either Defensive Runs Saved or UZR, I think they show the same thing. But of course those are position-adjusted, so to pile up a large negative number a player has to play a single position for a long, long time.

[Reddy]

Either Defensive Runs Saved or UZR, I think they show the same thing. But of course those are position-adjusted, so to pile up a large negative number a player has to play a single position for a long, long time.

absolutely.

 

but he's cost his team more runs on defense than any other player in history. I forget the exact number but it's about ~140 runs given up because of his defense

[LittleHurt05]

absolutely.

 

but he's cost his team more runs on defense than any other player in history. I forget the exact number but it's about ~140 runs given up because of his defense

 

But five Gold Gloves!!!!!

[Eminor3rd]

It's entirely possible (likely) that I'm hearing more hype than you guys here in NY. It's crazy to realize how much of the MAINSTREAM media is actually in NY. So maybe I'm overblowing it.

 

Interesting component: when you look at his Defensive Runs at FG, you see Jeter with a career -25.7 (compared to Thomas' -267.4 LOL holy s***), and think, "Oh that's not so bad over an 18 year career." That is until you realize that number INCLUDES positional adjustment, which gives him +7.5 runs per year just for being at SS. Multiply that by 18 seasons, and you see that compared to other SS's, he is -160.7 runs below average. An astonishing -16 fWAR lost through bad defense alone.

 

Which begs further analysis of Frank Thomas. If he would have been a scratch defender, either by being a good first baseman or an average, say, third baseman or RF or something, he would have nearly 27 more fWAR over the course of his career, making him a 99 fWAR player, which would put him ahead of guys like Cal Ripken, Joe Morgan, and Carl Yastrzemski.

Edited February 19, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[TaylorStSox]

I don't need defensive stats to tell me Jeter was a statue. One game of the eye test will tell you that. I don't care how good of a hitter you are, if you play awful defense at a premium position, you aren't among the top 100 players of all time. He wasn't a lumbering 1st baseman. He was a SS. Not all positions are created equal.

[Jake]

But that one cool play! The low error totals!

[Texsox]

He should have just DH'd

[Swingandalongonetoleft]

I believe this but by what metric?

 

Gold Glove metric (GGAwa).

[ChiSox_Sonix]

He's absolutely not a top 10 player ever. I'm not sure he's top 50 ever. He is a OF'er. The only reasons he's being blown up like he is is A) his off-field and professional demeanor, which has been excellent and B) He led so many Yankees teams to the post-season as their captain.

 

He's vastly overrated, but no doubt a hall of famer. Excellent hitting SS who led the empire to so many post-season wins, a leader in every sense, and an average (at best, across his career) defensive shortstop.

 

Derek Jeter is one of the most overrated players of all time. Yes, he's a HoF'er, there's no denying that, but the way people have talked about him and treated him throughout the years have painted a picture of him as one of the few best ever. It's possible to be a great player and still be vastly overrated and that's him. Jeter isn't even one of the Yankees all-time top 5 or 6 players.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

But that one cool play! The low error totals!

 

Ugh. That one play where due to his lack of range he caught the ball on full sprint and took 6 steps before launching himself into the stands. BUT OHMYGOD THAT PLAY!

[witesoxfan]

I don't need defensive stats to tell me Jeter was a statue. One game of the eye test will tell you that. I don't care how good of a hitter you are, if you play awful defense at a premium position, you aren't among the top 100 players of all time. He wasn't a lumbering 1st baseman. He was a SS. Not all positions are created equal.

 

That's pretty narrow minded though too, especially considering he has the 45th most fWAR of all time, even with shoddy defense. Frankly, he should have moved to 3B or 2B when the Yankees brought in Rodriguez, but it was "his" team and whatever, but this also shows the volatility of statistics like UZR. In '98, his UZR was 10.1. That's a full win earned due to defense. In '99, '00, and '01, he was hurting the team there (dropping as low as -16.4 in 2000), yet the Yankees made the World Series all 3 years and won it in '01, which goes to show that defensive deficiencies can be hidden. From '02-'04, he was back to being a positive player, '05-'07 was negative, '08-'10 was positive (and a 12.2 UZR as recently as 2009), and '11-'13 have been negative. Can players' defense fluctuate that greatly and that consistently over the course of a career?

 

On top of that, Jeter is one of the greatest offensive shortstops of all time. He's 4th all time. The 3 "shortstops" with more? Honus Wagner, Alex Rodriguez (hence, the quotes), and Arky Vaughn. In case you're not keeping track at home, that's a player from the deadball era, a player who has been caught using PEDs twice and spent the second half of his career at 3B, and a player from the 30s and 40s who derived most of his offensive value from 6 seasons.

 

On the defensive scale, he was probably a 40 at shortstop overall. Still, he never embarrassed himself out there, he was incredibly durable, and he played very good baseball 17 seasons. Frankly, because he was able to do all of that from shortstop leaves him much higher on this list than I think people are readily willing to admit. The guy was consistently good (and sometimes very good to great) for 17 years.

[witesoxfan]

Regarding this entire debate, I tend to believe that if people think Jeter is overrated, then they underrate how good he actually was, especially offensively. If they think he was underrated, then they overrate and forget how poor of a defender he actually was.

 

At the end of the day, he is what he is - a consistently good offensive player who was consistently below average defensively at a prime position for a very long period of time.

 

-----

 

For reference's sake, when people canonize the careers of Favre, do they mention that he also threw the most interceptions of any quarterback in NFL history (by a lot)? Had Jeter been a 10 year player or moved to 1B at the midway point of his career like Ernie Banks, then the defensive aspect of this conversation wouldn't be happening. Whether that's on Jeter or the manager is entirely debatable, but what is not debatable is that Jeter spent his entire career at SS and was an incredibly talented offensive shortstop for entirety of his career.

[TaylorStSox]

That's pretty narrow minded though too, especially considering he has the 45th most fWAR of all time, even with shoddy defense. Frankly, he should have moved to 3B or 2B when the Yankees brought in Rodriguez, but it was "his" team and whatever, but this also shows the volatility of statistics like UZR. In '98, his UZR was 10.1. That's a full win earned due to defense. In '99, '00, and '01, he was hurting the team there (dropping as low as -16.4 in 2000), yet the Yankees made the World Series all 3 years and won it in '01, which goes to show that defensive deficiencies can be hidden. From '02-'04, he was back to being a positive player, '05-'07 was negative, '08-'10 was positive (and a 12.2 UZR as recently as 2009), and '11-'13 have been negative. Can players' defense fluctuate that greatly and that consistently over the course of a career?

 

On top of that, Jeter is one of the greatest offensive shortstops of all time. He's 4th all time. The 3 "shortstops" with more? Honus Wagner, Alex Rodriguez (hence, the quotes), and Arky Vaughn. In case you're not keeping track at home, that's a player from the deadball era, a player who has been caught using PEDs twice and spent the second half of his career at 3B, and a player from the 30s and 40s who derived most of his offensive value from 6 seasons.

 

On the defensive scale, he was probably a 40 at shortstop overall. Still, he never embarrassed himself out there, he was incredibly durable, and he played very good baseball 17 seasons. Frankly, because he was able to do all of that from shortstop leaves him much higher on this list than I think people are readily willing to admit. The guy was consistently good (and sometimes very good to great) for 17 years.

 

TL;DR.

 

I'll make this really short. Very good hitter. Awful defender. Yes, awful. Not among top 100 players of all time.

 

[Eminor3rd]

So what's your stance on it, wite? Is he a top 10 player or a top 50 player to you?

[witesoxfan]

TL;DR.

 

I'll make this really short. Very good hitter. Awful defender. Yes, awful. Not among top 100 players of all time.

 

It was f***ing 2 paragraphs, how is that ever a teal deer? And no, not awful. A -25.7 career UZR over 17 years is -1.5 per season. That's below average, not "awful." If you want to see an awful defender, you look towards guys like Adam Dunn.

 

So what's your stance on it, wite? Is he a top 10 player or a top 50 player to you?

 

Top 50. I don't think I'd take him over Thomas, but he was a far healthier player over the course of his career while playing a more rigorous position too. It's hard to take a stance on that. The Yankees allure will surely draw him more votes in 6 years though.

 

What I honestly think gets underrated and even cast as a negative for a lot of people voting and discussing Hall of Famers is longevity. It took Bert Blyleven 15 years to get into the Hall of Fame after pitching in 4 decades and being one of the best pitchers of his era(s). That should be celebrated and applauded, not held against them. If a guy is an average player for 20 years, that's one thing, but a guy like Jeter was good to great player for 17 years. There's something to be said for showing up and doing your job that well for that long.

Edited February 19, 2014 by witesoxfan

[Eminor3rd]

It was f***ing 2 paragraphs, how is that ever a teal deer? And no, not awful. A -25.7 career UZR over 17 years is -1.5 per season. That's below average, not "awful." If you want to see an awful defender, you look towards guys like Adam Dunn.

 

It's not -25.7 UZR, of -25.7 Defensive Runs above average. The UZR is like -150. So I think it's most accurate to say "awful shortstop" while acknowledging that anyone who can even fake SS isn't an "awful defender." Being a bad SS is much better than being an average 1B, for example, and that is reflected in fWAR (although I personally have some issues with the accuracy of 'set in stone' positional adjustments).

Edited February 19, 2014 by Eminor3rd