Analysis of the Toolsy Outfield Four - who rebounds?

[NorthSideSox72]

All four very talented with some plus tools, all came in raw, all had disappointing 2013's but still have pretty high ceilings. I take a look for FutureSox at each and see where things may head for them in 2014.

 

How about you folks in here? Who do you think will have the big rebound year(s)? Who still has a reasonable shot to be a major league starter?

 

[flavum]

Wow, you talk about 4 guys that need to have good years.

 

Mitchell and Walker---not going to make it.

 

Thompson--maybe, but he needs to put up 5 good months.

 

Hawkins--play well enough to get to Birmingham in 2015. If not, how's his pitching arm?

[witesoxfan]

Wow, you talk about 4 guys that need to have good years.

 

Mitchell and Walker---not going to make it.

 

Thompson--maybe, but he needs to put up 5 good months.

 

Hawkins--play well enough to get to Birmingham in 2015. If not, how's his pitching arm?

 

I don't believe Walker will, but I want to see Mitchell one more year. The AFL was encouraging, even if it was younger competition. The bottom line is that it's still, for the most part, the best players in the minors.

 

I think you want Hawkins in Birmingham in 2015, but he's only 20 this year. Even if he repeats again, he's still age appropriate for A+. That's how ridiculous that assignment was for him.

[harfman77]

I think Mitchell has one more shot thanks to the AFL, but is a candidate to be DFA'ed this summer if things dont click. I think Buddy Bell may have ruined Hawkins. He should start in Kanny this season and build his confidence back up and move up to WS in the summer. If he performs well there he could make it to Birmingham for the last month or playoffs, but really no need to push him. Let him regain some confidence and swagger.

[southsider2k5]

Unless there is someone pushing Mitchell, there really isn't a big hurry to push him off of the roster.

[harfman77]

Unless there is someone pushing Mitchell, there really isn't a big hurry to push him off of the roster.

 

No, no hurry, but if the Sox need to make another Surkamp type move, Mitchell is probably second or third on the list of guys that get removed from the 40 man roster. That is unless he carries over his success from the AFL, than someone else moves ahead of him on that list.

[NorthSideSox72]

Wow, you talk about 4 guys that need to have good years.

 

Mitchell and Walker---not going to make it.

 

Thompson--maybe, but he needs to put up 5 good months.

 

Hawkins--play well enough to get to Birmingham in 2015. If not, how's his pitching arm?

I'd contend that Hawkins and Walker don't even need particularly big years - just improved years. They are both still quite raw and the Sox can afford to be patient with them.

 

Thompson and Mitchell are different. Mitchell requires a darn good 2015 to even stay with the team. Thompson is close to that level, though he's not been as bad as Mitchell anyway.

 

And as I said in the article, I'd actually bet that Walker has the biggest rebound. Problem is, he has the lowest ceiling value.

 

[winninguglyin83]

Great stuff.

 

enjoyed the research and analysis you put into it.

 

If I had to rank them as most likely to make it to US Cellular Field, I'd go this way:

 

1. Thompson -- best overall offense to date and chance to be a plus outfielder.

 

2. Hawkins -- power potential to separate himself from the others.

 

3. Walker -- ability to play multiple spots and not consumed with HRs.

 

4. Mitchell -- honestly don't see any way this guy ever becomes who sticks on a big-league roster.

[Quin]

People seem to keep forgetting Hawkins is 20.

[Chisoxfn]

Great stuff.

 

enjoyed the research and analysis you put into it.

 

If I had to rank them as most likely to make it to US Cellular Field, I'd go this way:

 

1. Thompson -- best overall offense to date and chance to be a plus outfielder.

 

2. Hawkins -- power potential to separate himself from the others.

 

3. Walker -- ability to play multiple spots and not consumed with HRs.

 

4. Mitchell -- honestly don't see any way this guy ever becomes who sticks on a big-league roster.

I'd flip Walker and Mitchell but otherwise completely agree. Thompson is a major league bench player at a minimum due to his speed and defensive ability although I still think his bat, overall tools, and periphs will help him be an everyday starting centerfielder. Here's to hoping this is the year it all finally clicks. He definitely goes through periods where it looks like everything comes together.

[NorthSideSox72]

Great stuff.

 

enjoyed the research and analysis you put into it.

 

If I had to rank them as most likely to make it to US Cellular Field, I'd go this way:

 

1. Thompson -- best overall offense to date and chance to be a plus outfielder.

 

2. Hawkins -- power potential to separate himself from the others.

 

3. Walker -- ability to play multiple spots and not consumed with HRs.

 

4. Mitchell -- honestly don't see any way this guy ever becomes who sticks on a big-league roster.

Thanks!

 

If I had to order them in how likely they are to be on a 25 man roster AT ALL, I'd go...

 

1. Thompson

2. Mitchell

3. Hawkins

4. Walker

 

I just think the org is so doggedly focused on Mitchell, they'll find a way to shoe-horn him in there at some point even if he clearly isn't ready.

 

Now, as far as who I think has the best shot of being an every day player for at least a season or two...

 

1. Thompson

2. Hawkins

3. Walker

4. Mitchell

 

With Thompson and Hawkins nearly interchangeable. And finally, chances of being an above average, possibly even star player...

 

1. Hawkins

2. Thompson

 

...

 

98. Walker

99. Mitchell

 

Big gap there if you are talking about ceiling, in my view.

 

[witesoxfan]

Thanks!

 

If I had to order them in how likely they are to be on a 25 man roster AT ALL, I'd go...

 

1. Thompson

2. Mitchell

3. Hawkins

4. Walker

 

I just think the org is so doggedly focused on Mitchell, they'll find a way to shoe-horn him in there at some point even if he clearly isn't ready.

 

Now, as far as who I think has the best shot of being an every day player for at least a season or two...

 

1. Thompson

2. Hawkins

3. Walker

4. Mitchell

 

With Thompson and Hawkins nearly interchangeable. And finally, chances of being an above average, possibly even star player...

 

1. Hawkins

2. Thompson

 

...

 

98. Walker

99. Mitchell

 

Big gap there if you are talking about ceiling, in my view.

 

I would actually rank Mitchell 3 behind Thompson on your very last list. Walker would still be 98.

[southsider2k5]

Great stuff.

 

enjoyed the research and analysis you put into it.

 

If I had to rank them as most likely to make it to US Cellular Field, I'd go this way:

 

1. Thompson -- best overall offense to date and chance to be a plus outfielder.

 

2. Hawkins -- power potential to separate himself from the others.

 

3. Walker -- ability to play multiple spots and not consumed with HRs.

 

4. Mitchell -- honestly don't see any way this guy ever becomes who sticks on a big-league roster.

 

I'd say just by sheer age and level, Jared Mitchell has the best shot at ending up in Chicago. It might be for a cup of coffee or something, but the guy plays a mean CF. If we had an injury that required a CF, he might top the list for a call up, assuming he gets off to a decent start.

 

Walker and Hawkins have to be the last two just because of their age, and length to go until they even have a chance at making it to Chicago.

[winninguglyin83]

I just can't imagine a guy who hit .167 during his fourth pro season while getting demoted to AA being in the big leagues. And striking out in more than a third of his at bats.

 

The guy can't hit -- no matter what Buddy Bell says.

[Chicago White Sox]

I just can't imagine a guy who hit .167 during his fourth pro season while getting demoted to AA being in the big leagues. And striking out in more than a third of his at bats.

 

The guy can't hit -- no matter what Buddy Bell says.

Totally agree, I think a lot of people are being fooled by his strong AFL performance. He was absolute garbage last year in both AAA & AA. I'm not buying into the hype until see him put up some numbers in Charlotte.

 

Also, if there's going to be a callup needed for CF, it's going to be Danks (if De Aza is the 4th OF) or Thompson. Everything I have read suggests that Trayce is a superior defender to Mitchell, plus he's actually shown some ability with the bat. I don't think Mitchell is really on the radar anymore, IMO the fluff we're hearing about his AFL performance is just trying rebuild some of his lost value. That could change with a strong start to the 2014 season, but I just don't think it's likely at this point.

[Balta1701]

Totally agree, I think a lot of people are being fooled by his strong AFL performance. He was absolute garbage last year in both AAA & AA. I'm not buying into the hype until see him put up some numbers in Charlotte.

 

Also, if there's going to be a callup needed for CF, it's going to be Danks (if De Aza is the 4th OF) or Thompson. Everything I have read suggests that Trayce is a superior defender to Mitchell, plus he's actually shown some ability with the bat. I don't think Mitchell is really on the radar anymore, IMO the fluff we're hearing about his AFL performance is just trying rebuild some of his lost value. That could change with a strong start to the 2014 season, but I just don't think it's likely at this point.

Does Danks have any options left?

[Chicago White Sox]

Does Danks have any options left?

Yeah, he was never put on the 40 until last year right? If so, he should have two options left.

[GreenSox]

My main hope is for Thompson to continue to improve and develop and for Hawkins to catch up from what seems like a lost year and get back on track.

I suspect we'll see Mitchell look okay - 4th outfielderish.

[ShandyMan]

I really hope Hawkins has a rebound year. If he can return to his previous self, that will do wonders for our system.

 

 

I think Trayce is going to flame out, but I hope I'm wrong.

[GreenSox]

Looking at Mitchell, Walker and Thompson stats aside, it's conceivable that any of the three could be a 4th outfielder. They all have speed, defense and a semblance of discipline at the plate. Obviously their contact issues are horrid, but if anyone of these guys could hit .250 in the bigs they belong a 25 man roster. Mitchell is an absolute gazelle in CF. He could feasibly be a late inning, defensive replacement/pinch runner. Walker could be the same type of player but with more speed and lesser but still strong defense. Considering the two abortions of a seasons these guys had last year, it's easy to forget they weren't too far under .800 OPS guys in 2012.

I consider 4th outfielder from any of them a failure. Don't really care if they make that or not. If Mitchell looks like a 4th OF, as I suspect he will, give him more time to develop into more. He was a raw college player and had injuries.

[Boopa1219]

Its clearly Hawkins in my opinion and I think some people are forgetting that the dude just turned 20 not too long ago. That assignment was ridiculous for him or any 19 year old with only a half season of professional ball on your belt. I think that he is still the best prospect in the system and has the highest ceiling as well. I think that Hawking is going to have a bounce back year, he is going to cut down the strike out rate, he will improve his OBP and his BA considerably. I still think that once he develops that he could be a guy who can hit 25-30 home runs in the major league level while he swipes 20+ bags a year, while maintaining a respectable average. And I think that he needs to be taken out of CF and put in RF, it could help the progress with his bat.

[Señor Ding-Dong]

I think Mitchell will see the bigs this year if he's anything but terrible. Conversely, I can easily see him performing poorly again to the point where we give up on him. Either way, I can't see him ever being anything more than a 4th OF.

 

I'm still as high on Hawkins as ever. He has the highest ceiling out of all these guys and probably our entire organization as well. He should repeat A+, hopefully cut down on the Ks, improve his contact, and be ready for Birmingham next season.

 

Thompson probably has the highest floor and will at worst be a solid starter,

 

I've never been high on Walker and I can't see him ever getting more than a cup of coffee.

 

 

[harfman77]

Its clearly Hawkins in my opinion and I think some people are forgetting that the dude just turned 20 not too long ago. That assignment was ridiculous for him or any 19 year old with only a half season of professional ball on your belt. I think that he is still the best prospect in the system and has the highest ceiling as well. I think that Hawking is going to have a bounce back year, he is going to cut down the strike out rate, he will improve his OBP and his BA considerably. I still think that once he develops that he could be a guy who can hit 25-30 home runs in the major league level while he swipes 20+ bags a year, while maintaining a respectable average. And I think that he needs to be taken out of CF and put in RF, it could help the progress with his bat.

 

The assignment was terrible, but age really has nothing to do with it. Carlos Sanchez was starting at AAA at the same age, and there have been quite a few phenoms in the majors at the same age. Age is not a qualifier, skill progression is, and I agree the Sox made a terrible decision moving him up, but because his skillset wasn't developed enough, not because of his age.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The assignment was terrible, but age really has nothing to do with it. Carlos Sanchez was starting at AAA at the same age, and there have been quite a few phenoms in the majors at the same age. Age is not a qualifier, skill progression is, and I agree the Sox made a terrible decision moving him up, but because his skillset wasn't developed enough, not because of his age.

While I agree that developmental level is a much better point here than calendar age, I wouldn't go as far as to say age wasn't a factor at all. There is an aspect to this which involves maturity, as a person, not just as a ballplayer. That doesn't mean it is impossible for a 19 year old to handle A+, but it does increase the risk of struggles. A 19 year old who just left high school simply lacks some maturity and problem-solving skills that a 22 year old does not, on average. That plays a role.

 

[harfman77]

While I agree that developmental level is a much better point here than calendar age, I wouldn't go as far as to say age wasn't a factor at all. There is an aspect to this which involves maturity, as a person, not just as a ballplayer. That doesn't mean it is impossible for a 19 year old to handle A+, but it does increase the risk of struggles. A 19 year old who just left high school simply lacks some maturity and problem-solving skills that a 22 year old does not, on average. That plays a role.

 

I am not trying to say it wasn't a factor, obviously inexperience contributed significantly, but throughout this thread people saying he is 20 like it is a reason for his performance. A factor, yes, the reason, no.