Over/under on Boggs as closer by 6/1? Then Goldberg in 2015

[Feeky Magee]

Lindstrom hasn't been a closer for a few years, so why try again with him? He closed with Houston one year, then lost the job. Strictly a set up guy now. I think he and Boggs should be fighting for the same roster spot, but they will both probably go North in April. I don't get the Boggs' signing.

Because he's been a good reliever for 3 straight years, because our best reliever is arb-eligible next year and it would be very profitable to prevent him from closing, because saves would increase his trade value and because the other options aren't as stable as him?

[ILMOU]

Because he's been a good reliever for 3 straight years, because our best reliever is arb-eligible next year and it would be very profitable to prevent him from closing, because saves would increase his trade value and because the other options aren't as stable as him?

True, but if there are guys in the system that you like better for closer long-term; Webb, Goldberg, you can increase Jones' trade value by getting him the saves this season, while never bearing the burden of the arb year costs. Not saying that's their strategy for certain, as I don't know how they view Webb and Goldberg internally, but it's another plausible scenario, especially given the Santos and Reed moves.

Edited March 2, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[caulfield12]

He has no where near that level of stuff as the guys who you just referenced. A middle inning guy? Sure. Set up guy? Ok. Closer? No.

 

When you’re a guy like Boggs who has a nasty mid 90′s sinker and an even nastier 90 MPH slider – both pitches with sharp downward movement – the only way hitters can make quality contact with you is if you leave the ball up in the zone. Everything flattens out.

 

Sounds like two pitches that could be better than what Addison Reed was using to be an above-average MLB closer for two seasons.

[Feeky Magee]

True, but if there are guys in the system that you like better for closer long-term; Webb, Goldberg, you can increase Jones' trade value by getting him the saves this season, while never bearing the burden of the arb year costs. Not saying that's their strategy for certain, as I don't know how they view Webb and Goldberg internally, but it's another plausible scenario, especially given the Santos and Reed moves.

Right, but delay Jones being the closer out of the gate and you can have it both ways. Lindstrom closes until the trade deadline, Jones takes over when Lindstrom gets traded but is not properly considered a closer for arbitration as he merely took it over for the run-in. Then you have Jones close for as long as you want, so he's considered a closer by other teams but his arb is based mostly on set-up because years 2 and 3 are based on year 1. All it means is you can't shop Jones as a closer at the 2014 trade deadline but I'm not sure they'd be shopping him then anyway.

Edited March 2, 2014 by Feeky Magee

[ILMOU]

Right, but delay Jones being the closer out of the gate and you can have it both ways. Lindstrom closes until the trade deadline, Jones takes over when Lindstrom gets traded but is not properly considered a closer for arbitration as he merely took it over for the run-in. Then you have Jones close for as long as you want, so he's considered a closer by other teams but his arb is based mostly on set-up because years 2 and 3 are based on year 1. All it means is you can't shop Jones as a closer at the 2014 trade deadline but I'm not sure they'd be shopping him then anyway.

 

Yeah, I don't think Lindy will be thought of as a closer to potential trade partners, even if we put him in that role. But Jones, with 100mph heat, yes.

[caulfield12]

It would probably be a lot easier to sell Webb as a closer than Lindstrom...but that would be pretty unheard of to trade a rookie closer coming into July with let's say 15-25 saves.

 

Can't ever recall it happening in recent memory.

[Feeky Magee]

Yeah, I don't think Lindy will be thought of as a closer to potential trade partners, even if we put him in that role. But Jones, with 100mph heat, yes.

If a contender is struggling with it like Detroit last year and Lindstrom has around 25 saves with an ERA around 3, I think he could be, at least for a couple of months.

[southsider2k5]

When you’re a guy like Boggs who has a nasty mid 90′s sinker and an even nastier 90 MPH slider – both pitches with sharp downward movement – the only way hitters can make quality contact with you is if you leave the ball up in the zone. Everything flattens out.

 

Sounds like two pitches that could be better than what Addison Reed was using to be an above-average MLB closer for two seasons.

 

Reality isn't even close to that.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?play...&position=P

[Eminor3rd]

I don't think GMs care nearly as much for whether or not a guy has been a "closer" anymore. It's extremely unlikely a contender would be acquiring Boggs to be a closer anyway -- I think they'll hand the job to whoever pitches the best. Boggs may get that shot if someone else drops the ball.

[ILMOU]

If we're choosing our closer on the basis of who would bring back the most in a trade Jones should be the guy.

 

Lindstrom doesn't offer enough upside. He's a decent reliever who'll have hitters driving the ball into the ground and is valuable in several roles but he's not someone a playoff team can sell as a closer. The guy cannot get LH hitters out well enough to close IMO.

 

Webb is too young and would drive up his salary in future years by stacking up saves. Make Webb one of the guys in the pen and hopefully he has a great year and is heir to the closer throne.

 

Jones has two good years under his belt, has the stuff and could very well be a tradable commodity come June.

Agree with all of this. Well said.

 

I see Goldberg in this year's Webb role NEXT year, maybe closing in '16. Time will tell.

Edited March 3, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[caulfield12]

Yeah I don't know where Caulfield got that article from but it seems like a fluff piece. It does show how down Boggs's velocity was last year. Hopefully Boggs comes back this year hitting 95+ instead of sitting 92-94 like last year.

 

 

Yeah, it was written by a St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter, so it would the equivalent of a Colleen Kane, Mark Gonzales or Paul Sullivan article...not Scott Merkin writing for chisox.com, though.

 

If there weren't any actual physical problems last year, mental/mechanical ones would seem to be the cause.

 

I would imagine the readings would be just fine in 2012 or 2011...and superior, or no worse than equal to Addison Reed, who almost always has thrown 93-95 MPH fastballs.

 

He's gone from 95-96 over that time span (2011-12) down to 93-94ish. We'll see. It's not like we're talking about the difference between John Danks' fastball pre and post surgery here.

Edited March 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[ShandyMan]

hopefully all of them perform the way that they should, which will give us many options for games as well as the trade market

[caulfield12]

hopefully all of them perform the way that they should, which will give us many options for games as well as the trade market

 

 

Since Paulino and Abreu are terrible (teal) and not going to draw any interest...

 

In all seriousness, though, other than Ramirez...all of those relievers (if they have decent seasons) should end up bringing a lot more back in terms of trade return than Dunn, Beckham, DeAza, Gillaspie, Keppinger, Phegley, etc.

 

It has gone from the biggest weakness of the ballclub to one that could end up being a relative strength.

 

Listening to the game yesterday, had already completely forgotten about Purcey, Omogrosso and Heath as I attempted to block out the entire 2nd half of 2013. We have quite a few bullpen options. Anyone but Troncoso or Axelrod would be okay.

Edited March 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[Feeky Magee]

If we're choosing our closer on the basis of who would bring back the most in a trade Jones should be the guy.

 

Lindstrom doesn't offer enough upside. He's a decent reliever who'll have hitters driving the ball into the ground and is valuable in several roles but he's not someone a playoff team can sell as a closer. The guy cannot get LH hitters out well enough to close IMO.

 

Webb is too young and would drive up his salary in future years by stacking up saves. Make Webb one of the guys in the pen and hopefully he has a great year and is heir to the closer throne.

 

Jones has two good years under his belt, has the stuff and could very well be a tradable commodity come July or next offseason.

Delaying that until after July though and make him the full-time closer then, and there could be savings of up to $10m in arb. Even if you still count on trading him, it's a pretty good selling point in that he'd be relatively cheap, or leverage in that the Sox can easily afford to keep him. That's worth skipping one trade deadline for me.

[Buehrle>Wood]

Over.

[GreenSox]

Hold onto Jones for a couple of years. Try to get Lindstrom or Bellasario all primped up for a trade.

I hope Jones doesn't close anyway - need to use him to get out of jams.

[Marty34]

Loading up a reliever with saves to boost his trade value doesn't work anymore. If a reliever pitches well in a set up role that's enough.

[caulfield12]

Over.

 

 

Not my best prediction, especially since I hadn't even watched Boggs pitch recently...guess it's the classic Bobby Thigpen/Marmol/Linebrink/Scott Shields diminished stuff from overuse or aging.

 

From everything I read, his problems seemed more mental than physical. But, as Dick Allen always points out, Cooper can't work miracles.

 

At least we SEEM for the moment to be right on Cleto and Belisario. Keeping Lindstrom and the wisdom of signing Downs remains to be seen.

 

 

That said, there's always a possibility he stays in the organization and goes to Charlotte. Remote.

Edited March 24, 2014 by caulfield12

[LittleHurt05]

Over.

 

Well done, I was gonna do the same thing.

[caulfield12]

Well done, I was gonna do the same thing.

 

Sox general manager Rick Hahn said the team wanted to give Boggs an opportunity to latch on with another team before opening day, but the club would welcome him back if he wanted to start at the Triple-A level.

 

Not quite yet, he could start in AAA. The odds are probably 50/50 he will be at Charlotte.

[southsider2k5]

Loading up a reliever with saves to boost his trade value doesn't work anymore. If a reliever pitches well in a set up role that's enough.

 

Addison Reed says that Arizona is lovely this time of year.

[Feeky Magee]

Loading up a reliever with saves to boost his trade value doesn't work anymore. If a reliever pitches well in a set up role that's enough.

*cough* Addison Reed* cough

 

Not that he's not a talented pitcher but Kevin Towers definitely thought of 40 saves at some point during evaluating Reed.

[Feeky Magee]

Addison Reed says that Arizona is lovely this time of year.

Snap

[Feeky Magee]

I think Lindstrom gets it. Jones is the outstanding candidate, but with the arbitration system over-valuing players who close before their first year, the Sox could save $5-10m on his arb years by delaying having him close for one year. Lindstrom is the most stable option behind him, and I think Hahn would like if he racked up some saves to be enticing to a contender looking for someone with closing experience at the deadline.