Dodgers looking for a 2B

[caulfield12]

No way in hell Semien gets us Pederson.

 

If they did make a trade for an established 2B, it would be someone much more experienced and with a track record.

 

If anything, from reading the articles in the LA Times, it seems they're leaning towards Dee Gordon, who then would go back to utility (2B/SS/OF/PR) upon Guerrero's call up to the big leagues.

[Vance Law]

Moustakas is still more highly valued in the Royals' organization because of the position he plays...it's much easier to find a 2B than a power-hitting 3B.

 

 

Beckham career SLG .380

Moustakas .385

 

and Beckham out-slugged him last year

[Eminor3rd]

Gordon Beckham sucks, and even though Pederson is better than Semien, we actually need Semien more. Unless you're ready to give up on Viciedo, which...

[Vance Law]

Gordon Beckham sucks, and even though Pederson is better than Semien, we actually need Semien more. Unless you're ready to give up on Viciedo, which...

 

If they want Guerrero to start in AAA, I can think of a short-term stopgap named Keppinger...

[harfman77]

Gordon Beckham sucks, and even though Pederson is better than Semien, we actually need Semien more. Unless you're ready to give up on Viciedo, which...

 

No, but I think Viciedo will be the DH and we need another OF for 2015. Gordan Beckham does not suck. Maybe compared to what was expected of him, but he is at least a big league average player. With Sanchez, Johnson, and Anderson in the wings and no OF prospects that can hit, I am not sure we need Semien more.

 

But, yes there is probably no way that deal gets made, more wishful thinking on my part.

[Eminor3rd]

No, but I think Viciedo will be the DH and we need another OF for 2015. Gordan Beckham does not suck. Maybe compared to what was expected of him, but he is at least a big league average player. With Sanchez, Johnson, and Anderson in the wings and no OF prospects that can hit, I am not sure we need Semien more.

 

But, yes there is probably no way that deal gets made, more wishful thinking on my part.

 

He isn't average though, that's the problem.

 

Career fWAR by season since his rookie year: 2.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.9, 1.0

 

A league average player is 2.0 fWAR. He's been substantially below average for 4 consecutive seasons, making up 80% of his career. His career wRC+ is 86, or 14% below league average. UZR grades himout as about scratch on defense, and even if you think he's a little better than that, it's not nearly enough to turn him into an average player.

 

EDIT: this is Gordon Beckham, for clarity. He is not just disappointing to those with high expectations, he is an all out bustaroo

Edited March 4, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[witesoxfan]

He isn't average though, that's the problem.

 

Career fWAR by season since his rookie year: 2.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.9, 1.0

 

A league average player is 2.0 fWAR. He's been substantially below average for 4 consecutive seasons, making up 80% of his career. His career wRC+ is 86, or 14% below league average. UZR grades himout as about scratch on defense, and even if you think he's a little better than that, it's not nearly enough to turn him into an average player.

 

This is about the one area where we disagree at all because I still think that Viciedo has a good chance to develop into a good hitter, but at his current numbers, he's a platoon partner.

[Eminor3rd]

This is about the one area where we disagree at all because I still think that Viciedo has a good chance to develop into a good hitter, but at his current numbers, he's a platoon partner.

 

That was referring to Gordon Beckham, srry 4 confus

 

But yes, I also do think nothing of Viciedo. I will (very) gladly eat it if he turns into something, but I don't think he can see the ball well enough to recognize what it's going to do. Hacker 4 Lyfe

Edited March 4, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[witesoxfan]

That was referring to Gordon Beckham, srry 4 confus

 

But yes, I also do think nothing of Viciedo. I will (very) gladly eat it if he turns into something, but I don't think he can see the ball well enough to recognize what it's going to do. Hacker 4 Lyfe

 

Yeah I don't think anything of Beckham either, but I'm willing to be wrong.

 

With Viciedo, he looked incredible coming back from injury last year. I think he does see the ball pretty well, but he always seems so overanxious and wants to put everything into the left field seats. That's why I''m hopeful having someone like Abreu on the roster will help him, and that perhaps Abreu himself will even work with Viciedo personally on being more patient.

 

I don't think he will, but, unlike Beckham, I certainly feel he has the tools still at this point.

[caulfield12]

Beckham career SLG .380

Moustakas .385

 

and Beckham out-slugged him last year

 

 

That's true....

 

But Moustakas hasn't had 4 1/2 years to create a track record for himself at the major league level.

 

2nd, his minor league numbers would tell you that Moustakas is much more likely to end up a 25-30 homer type of player than Beckham over the next 2-3 seasons.

 

The stories of Alvarez or Alex Gordon would tell you that they're going to be patient with him...maybe not 3 more years of flailing/struggling patient, but at least 1 1/2 more seasons if not 2.

 

I understand you could probably do the same thing for Erik Hosmer (comparison with Beckham), but that doesn't mean I would take Beckham over either one of those two guys....or two Beckhams for one Hosmer/Moustakas.

Edited March 5, 2014 by caulfield12

[Y2Jimmy0]

That's true....

 

But Moustakas hasn't had 4 1/2 years to create a track record for himself at the major league level.

 

2nd, his minor league numbers would tell you that Moustakas is much more likely to end up a 25-30 homer type of player than Beckham over the next 2-3 seasons.

 

The stories of Alvarez or Alex Gordon would tell you that they're going to be patient with him...maybe not 3 more years of flailing/struggling patient, but at least 1 1/2 more seasons if not 2.

 

I understand you could probably do the same thing for Erik Hosmer (comparison with Beckham), but that doesn't mean I would take Beckham over either one of those two guys....or two Beckhams for one Hosmer/Moustakas.

 

Beckham doesn't have 1.5 or 2 more seasons. Semien, Sanchez, and Micah Johnson are all pushing him for a spot. I supported Gordon for a long time but the Sox have a ton of middle infield depth in their system right now. I would say that Gordon's days in a Sox uniform are numbered.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Beckham career SLG .380

Moustakas .385

 

and Beckham out-slugged him last year

 

Moustakas has been demonstrably better than Beckham.

 

2011

Moustakas: 84 wRC+, -1.1DRAA, 0.2 fWAR

Beckham: 72 wRC+, 4.9 DRAA, 0.5 fWAR

 

2012

Moustakas: 89 wRC+, 18.0 DRAA, 3.1 fWAR

Beckham: 80 wRC+, 3.7 DEF runs, 0.9 fWAR

 

2013:

Moustakas: 77 wRC+, 9.0 DRAA, 1.1 fWAR

Beckham: 88 wRC+, 1.0 DRAA, 1.0 fWAR

[ron883]

get garbage beckham out of here! i'd rather give semien a shot than keep playing beckham.

[Balta1701]

Moustakas has been demonstrably better than Beckham.

 

2011

Moustakas: 84 wRC+, -1.1DRAA, 0.2 fWAR

Beckham: 72 wRC+, 4.9 DRAA, 0.5 fWAR

 

2012

Moustakas: 89 wRC+, 18.0 DRAA, 3.1 fWAR

Beckham: 80 wRC+, 3.7 DEF runs, 0.9 fWAR

 

2013:

Moustakas: 77 wRC+, 9.0 DRAA, 1.1 fWAR

Beckham: 88 wRC+, 1.0 DRAA, 1.0 fWAR

So basically he's been demonstrably better than him based almost entirely on his defensive performance in 2012?

[Eminor3rd]

So basically he's been demonstrably better than him based almost entirely on his defensive performance in 2012?

 

That's the plurality, yes, but it's more accurate to say he's been better because of ALL of 2012. The difference between 80 and 89 wRC+ is nothing to sneeze at. Further, last year's defensive ratings corroborate the idea that he's a true talent ~10-12 defender, which is a level Beckham has never touched.

 

EDIT: Another way to look at it: Moustakas had a rough rookie year, in which he substantially outhit Beckham's THIRD year in the majors. He then had a breakout sophomore season in which he was better than any season Beckham has ever had, including his rookie year. Finally, he had a rough third year that added up to marginally more value than Beckham's "injury-interrupted comeback" last year.

 

 

Edited March 5, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[Balta1701]

That's the plurality, yes, but it's more accurate to say he's been better because of ALL of 2012. The difference between 80 and 89 wRC+ is nothing to sneeze at. Further, last year's defensive ratings corroborate the idea that he's a true talent ~10-12 defender, which is a level Beckham has never touched.

 

EDIT: Another way to look at it: Moustakas had a rough rookie year, in which he substantially outhit Beckham's THIRD year in the majors. He then had a breakout sophomore season in which he was better than any season Beckham has ever had, including his rookie year. Finally, he had a rough third year that added up to marginally more value than Beckham's "injury-interrupted comeback" last year.

But similarly, Beckham outperformed Moustakas with the bats last year. He was injured a portion of the time so it didn't pile up the fWAR, but to borrow a phrase, the difference between 77 and 88 wRC+ is nothing to sneeze at.

[Vance Law]

Moustakas has been demonstrably better than Beckham.

 

2011

Moustakas: 84 wRC+, -1.1DRAA, 0.2 fWAR

Beckham: 72 wRC+, 4.9 DRAA, 0.5 fWAR

 

2012

Moustakas: 89 wRC+, 18.0 DRAA, 3.1 fWAR

Beckham: 80 wRC+, 3.7 DEF runs, 0.9 fWAR

 

2013:

Moustakas: 77 wRC+, 9.0 DRAA, 1.1 fWAR

Beckham: 88 wRC+, 1.0 DRAA, 1.0 fWAR

 

Not exactly. A more accurate way of describing it would be Beckham ('09) and Moustakas ('12) have each only had one good season in their careers.

[Eminor3rd]

Not exactly. A more accurate way of describing it would be Beckham ('09) and Moustakas ('12) have each only had one good season in their careers.

 

If you're going to go there, you have to note that Moustakas has played 2.5 seasons, and Beckham has played just under 5. So we could say almost half of Moustakas' career is good seasons, and only 20% of Beckham's.

 

There are lots of ways to cherry pick the numbers. The reality is that of his two full seasons, Moustakas' best season is significantly better than Beckham's best season (which was four years ago and not even a full season), and his bad season is better than all of Beckham's four other seasons. They have both been dissapointing on some level, but it seems pretty cut and dried to me that Beckham is worse.

[Eminor3rd]

But similarly, Beckham outperformed Moustakas with the bats last year. He was injured a portion of the time so it didn't pile up the fWAR, but to borrow a phrase, the difference between 77 and 88 wRC+ is nothing to sneeze at.

 

And yet that better hitting wasn't even enough to end up with a better fWAR number because Moustakas added so much more value on defense. Beckham only played 33 fewer games, so it's reasonable that he may have picked up another 0.2 fWAR or something, but whichever way you shake it, they both had similarly mediocre seasons. The difference is that Moustakas is younger and one year removed from a 3.1 fWAR season, whereas Beckham is four years removed from even eclipsing 1.0 fWAR

[Vance Law]

If you're going to go there, you have to note that Moustakas has played 2.5 seasons, and Beckham has played just under 5. So we could say almost half of Moustakas' career is good seasons, and only 20% of Beckham's.

 

There are lots of ways to cherry pick the numbers. The reality is that of his two full seasons, Moustakas' best season is significantly better than Beckham's best season (which was four years ago and not even a full season), and his bad season is better than all of Beckham's four other seasons. They have both been dissapointing on some level, but it seems pretty cut and dried to me that Beckham is worse.

 

There are lots of ways to cherry pick the numbers, and you have done that. If you want to compare Beckham and Moustakas' respective best seasons using only fWAR, you are making an apples to oranges comparison. Moustakas needed 149 games and 614 PA to accumulate 3.1 WAR while Beckham only had 103 games and 430 PA to accrue 2.5 WAR On a per game or per PA basis, Beckham was the better and more valuable player. On top of it, he was playing out of position at 3rd base. The exact same argument (excluding the Beckham at 3B) applies to 2013 when Beckham played 103 games to Moustakas' 136 but still only bested Beckham 1.1 to 1.0 on raw fWAR. Beckham on average was the better player last year.

 

 

Moustakas is a "power hitting" third baseman who hasn't yet topped a .708 OPS. All of his value thus far is tied up in his defense and I for one tend to think his +18 in 2012 is an anomaly or downright incorrect. I'll believe it when he repeats it.

[Eminor3rd]

There are lots of ways to cherry pick the numbers, and you have done that. If you want to compare Beckham and Moustakas' respective best seasons using only fWAR, you are making an apples to oranges comparison. Moustakas needed 149 games and 614 PA to accumulate 3.1 WAR while Beckham only had 103 games and 430 PA to accrue 2.5 WAR On a per game or per PA basis, Beckham was the better and more valuable player. On top of it, he was playing out of position at 3rd base. The exact same argument (excluding the Beckham at 3B) applies to 2013 when Beckham played 103 games to Moustakas' 136 but still only bested Beckham 1.1 to 1.0 on raw fWAR. Beckham on average was the better player last year.

 

 

Moustakas is a "power hitting" third baseman who hasn't yet topped a .708 OPS. All of his value thus far is tied up in his defense and I for one tend to think his +18 in 2012 is an anomaly or downright incorrect. I'll believe it when he repeats it.

 

It is silly to judge a player by the role that the media assigns him. His ability or lack of ability to be a "power hitter" is just one factor of his value. A run saved is a run earned. How is citing OPS and "power hitting third baseman" less "apple & oranges" than citing fWAR -- a league-adjusted, era-adjusted, park-adjusted, context neutral statistic that is designed precisely for the purpose of being "apples to apples?"

 

But the point about playing time is valid. WAR is a counting stat. So we should use career rates, which should address all concerns of arbitrary endpoints and outliers (Moustakas +18 2012):

 

Beckham has been a better offensive contributor by 3 runs per season (-8.18 RAA/500PA against -11.45)

 

Moustakas has been a better defender by a 7.7 runs per season (8.3 UZR/150 against 0.6)

 

The difference? Moustakas has been a better player by 4.7 runs per season.

 

And this is beside the fact that Moustakas is almost exactly two years younger with almost exactly 2 years less experience, which leads to the very reasonable implication that he has more upside.

 

So, Moustakas has been better to date and has more upside. What am I missing? How is Moustakas not demonstrably > Beckham?

 

 

[Vance Law]

It is silly to judge a player by the role that the media assigns him. His ability or lack of ability to be a "power hitter" is just one factor of his value. A run saved is a run earned. How is citing OPS and "power hitting third baseman" less "apple & oranges" than citing fWAR -- a league-adjusted, era-adjusted, park-adjusted, context neutral statistic that is designed precisely for the purpose of being "apples to apples?"

 

But the point about playing time is valid. WAR is a counting stat. So we should use career rates, which should address all concerns of arbitrary endpoints and outliers (Moustakas +18 2012):

 

Beckham has been a better offensive contributor by 3 runs per season (-8.18 RAA/500PA against -11.45)

 

Moustakas has been a better defender by a 7.7 runs per season (8.3 UZR/150 against 0.6)

 

The difference? Moustakas has been a better player by 4.7 runs per season.

 

And this is beside the fact that Moustakas is almost exactly two years younger with almost exactly 2 years less experience, which leads to the very reasonable implication that he has more upside.

 

So, Moustakas has been better to date and has more upside. What am I missing? How is Moustakas not demonstrably > Beckham?

 

I see now that you are not the poster who claimed Moustakas was more valuable because "power hitting 3B is harder to find than a second baseman." That was my initial impetus to join this discussion- That the power hitting 3B had a similar SLG to our second baseman. Feel free to ignore my mention of Moustakas' OPS.

 

But you are making a different argument now. I refuted your claim that Moustakas was better than Beckham in their best seasons as well as in 2013. The opposite was true. Beckham was demonstrably better. Moustakas was demonstrably playing in more games.

 

Moustakas may well end up the better player, or he may never hit. I don't know. If I had to put my money on anything, it'd be that Moustakas won't routinely put up the defensive number he did in 2012, which is currently accounting for the big part of his career value. Skewing it perhaps. But if he ever actually hits, he'll make that point moot.

 

[Eminor3rd]

I see now that you are not the poster who claimed Moustakas was more valuable because "power hitting 3B is harder to find than a second baseman." That was my initial impetus to join this discussion- That the power hitting 3B had a similar SLG to our second baseman. Feel free to ignore my mention of Moustakas' OPS.

But you are making a different argument now. I refuted your claim that Moustakas was better than Beckham in their best seasons as well as in 2013. The opposite was true. Beckham was demonstrably better. Moustakas was demonstrably playing in more games.

 

Moustakas may well end up the better player, or he may never hit. I don't know. If I had to put my money on anything, it'd be that Moustakas won't routinely put up the defensive number he did in 2012, which is currently accounting for the big part of his career value. Skewing it perhaps. But if he ever actually hits, he'll make that point moot.

 

Ahh, I see. Yeah I was barking up the wrong tree.

 

But yeah, Moustakas aside, if the Dodgers need a 2B so badly they end up looking at Beckham, they might as well just use Dee Gordon, who is similarly bad, albeit in different ways.

[witesoxfan]

Ahh, I see. Yeah I was barking up the wrong tree.

 

But yeah, Moustakas aside, if the Dodgers need a 2B so badly they end up looking at Beckham, they might as well just use Dee Gordon, who is similarly bad, albeit in different ways.

 

Or Chone Figgins or Brendan Harris or Justin Turner.

 

I think I said if they make a trade for a 2B, I'd eat the entirety of a peel of an orange. I stand by that.

[brian310]

Or Chone Figgins or Brendan Harris or Justin Turner.

 

I think I said if they make a trade for a 2B, I'd eat the entirety of a peel of an orange. I stand by that.

I honestly think Turner would get a lot of playing time. Like many articles and by Turner himself, he was shocked to get non-tendered by the Mets this off-season.