Big Ten Tournament

[whitesoxfan99]

So that to you points to tournament LOCK?

 

We have two of the best 6 or 7 freshmen in the conference and the best freshman in the conference will be going pro. Hill and Nunn are clearly going to be very good players. Aaron Cosby was a damn good player in the Big East and becomes eligible next year. We have two other transfers becoming eligible that are proven solid college players and Paul will also likely benefit from essentially undergoing a freshman to sophomore jump. We lose very few senior minutes. Not that hard to predict.

[RockRaines]

We have two of the best 6 or 7 freshmen in the conference and the best freshman in the conference will be going pro. Hill and Nunn are clearly going to be very good players. Aaron Cosby was a damn good player in the Big East and becomes eligible next year. We have two other transfers becoming eligible that are proven solid college players and Paul will also likely benefit from essentially undergoing a freshman to sophomore jump. We lose very few senior minutes. Not that hard to predict.

So that to me looks like wishful thinking and I wouldnt call anything a lock. But hey, good to be positive.

[whitesoxfan99]

So that to me looks like wishful thinking and I wouldnt call anything a lock. But hey, good to be positive.

 

Lol. It is called using predictive models and there is no wishful thinking with respect to Cosby. If he isn't really good that would be stunning considering he was really good in a comparable conference. You want to bet on Illinois being better than OSU if Ross goes pro? Cause Illinois will be.

[RockRaines]

Lol. It is called using predictive models and there is no wishful thinking with respect to Cosby. If he isn't really good that would be stunning considering he was really good in a comparable conference. You want to bet on Illinois being better than OSU if Ross goes pro? Cause Illinois will be.

Ross is definitely leaving, but I'll put my chips on Thad Matta every day of the week. Even in a down year we are a lock for the tournament. But I want you to apply your predictive models to the OSU squad real quick and tell me how good we will be.

[bigruss]

Illini fans are going to be more optimistic about next year about their chances, 1) we know more about the transfers and how they fill huge needs for us 2) every fan is more likely to be optimistic of their team than others (besides B>w ).

 

Personally, if we aren't making it to the 2nd weekend of the tourney next year I would be disappointed. We'll be deep, experienced, and have strong starting talent with much more balance in our offensive skill sets. Obviously injuries, etc can impact that viewpoint, but again this team is pointing up.

[Boogua]

So that to me looks like wishful thinking and I wouldnt call anything a lock. But hey, good to be positive.

Which part of that post was wishful thinking and please explain why you think so. You don't have to, obviously, but it just seems like you're being dismissive and condescending without actually discussing the roster.

[RockRaines]

Which part of that post was wishful thinking and please explain why you think so. You don't have to, obviously, but it just seems like you're being dismissive and condescending without actually discussing the roster.

I'm not being condescending at all, just saying that calling something a lock when there are so many question marks and so much improvement needed is silly. Look at the "predictive formula" that is being applied to Illinois that is never looked at in regards to the rest of the conference that they have to play day in and day out. I am being skeptical since the program and the players havent made much noise since about 2005.

 

I dont understand why there is such a problem with me being skeptical.

Edited March 14, 2014 by RockRaines

[Boogua]

LOL. What about the team says they are a lock for the tournament? The Big Ten was way down this year and they didnt make it. Other teams in the conference are bringing in and have brought in more talent. Connect the dots for me here

How many teams have brought in more talent? And would you take a 4 star freshman over a guy like Cosby who has already performed at a big east school? Other teams might be bringing in better freshmen talent, but I wouldn't be shocked if the newcomers for illinois have more impact in comparison to some other teams freshmen.

[Boogua]

I'm not being condescending at all, just saying that calling something a lock when there are so many question marks and so much improvement needed is silly. Look at the "predictive formula" that is being applied to Illinois that is never looked at in regards to the rest of the conference that they have to play day in and day out. I am being skeptical since the program and the players havent made much noise since about 2005.

 

I dont understand why there is such a problem with me being skeptical.

So it's wishful thinking because they haven't made much noise since 2005, with 6 of those years coming under a completely different coach. Got it.

 

Completely disagree with the question marks. The starting lineup returns for a team that won 5 out of their last 7 including 3 road wins against 3 likely tournament teams and was a blown bunny away from beating #8 michigan.

[RockRaines]

How many teams have brought in more talent? And would you take a 4 star freshman over a guy like Cosby who has already performed at a big east school? Other teams might be bringing in better freshmen talent, but I wouldn't be shocked if the newcomers for illinois have more impact in comparison to some other teams freshmen.

So you dont think anyone has brought in better recruiting classes?

 

We are bringing in 2 top 25 kids, to me that's more talent.

[RockRaines]

So it's wishful thinking because they haven't made much noise since 2005, with 6 of those years coming under a completely different coach. Got it.

 

Completely disagree with the question marks. The starting lineup returns for a team that won 5 out of their last 7 including 3 road wins against 3 likely tournament teams and was a blown bunny away from beating #8 michigan.

No we are skeptical because of that. And that was my point from the get go.

[Boogua]

So you dont think anyone has brought in better recruiting classes?

 

We are bringing in 2 top 25 kids, to me that's more talent.

Where did I say that? I asked how many. I wasn't disputing that Ohio state had a better recruiting class.

[Jenksismyhero]

Illini fans are going to be more optimistic about next year about their chances, 1) we know more about the transfers and how they fill huge needs for us 2) every fan is more likely to be optimistic of their team than others (besides B>w ).

 

Personally, if we aren't making it to the 2nd weekend of the tourney next year I would be disappointed. We'll be deep, experienced, and have strong starting talent with much more balance in our offensive skill sets. Obviously injuries, etc can impact that viewpoint, but again this team is pointing up.

 

I don't disagree. Things are looking better. I just can't go so far as to predict this team is a "lock" for a top 25ish, top 7ish seed. That's insane with so many question marks. I would have said Indiana was a lock for the tourney this year and it didn't work out. And not because of injury, just because they had a lot of good talent on paper that didn't really pan out as their fans had hoped.

 

I mean, you guys realize it'll be basically the same team next year but with a slightly better supporting cast right? It'll be the same starting five next year. You hope that the transfers can be better than Ekey and Bertrand. But that's not a certainty.

 

Here are my issues with next years team:

 

(1) Too many guards for this expected mass turn around - Abrams/Rice/Nunn are your starters. How do Starks and Crosby fit in? How do they play defense? Nunn shows flashes. Rice shows flashes. And both, Rice especially though, disappear for long stretches.

 

(2) The four spot is a sophomore and a freshman. How's that going to work out over 40 minutes a game? Or do you go small (Starks is 6'2", Crosby is under 6') and give up rebounding?

 

(3) The PG and C on the team aren't consistent threats offensively. Abrams will have a good game and then have 5 games with less than 5 pts. He didn't progress this year, why would you think that would change next year? Same with Egwu. All that stuff about him shooting 10000 shots, and by the end of the year he couldn't hit a jump shot to save his life. You can't rely on that.

 

[RockRaines]

At least this took my attention away from this horrific team that "should" have been better this year. Ugh.

[Jenksismyhero]

So it's wishful thinking because they haven't made much noise since 2005, with 6 of those years coming under a completely different coach. Got it.

 

Completely disagree with the question marks. The starting lineup returns for a team that won 5 out of their last 7 including 3 road wins against 3 likely tournament teams and was a blown bunny away from beating #8 michigan.

 

Come on now...

 

MSU was a gift. They were hurt, not at full strength. Iowa was/is terrible right now. And Minnesota is about as average as you can get.

 

It's nice to see them finish the season well, but I wouldn't call that some amazing sign that this team has what it takes to compete for a top 25 spot all season.

 

Where the hell is all this blind optimism coming from? We're freaking Illinois people. We rarely meet or exceed expectations.

[RockRaines]

Dont even bother with evening out the calls, its too late. Just keep the game moving.

[Jenksismyhero]

At least this took my attention away from this horrific team that "should" have been better this year. Ugh.

 

Another example of "locks" being a bunch of nonsense. OSU was supposed to be a final four contender. They're not even a top 25 team.

Edited March 14, 2014 by Jenksismybitch

[Boogua]

Come on now...

 

MSU was a gift. They were hurt, not at full strength. Iowa was/is terrible right now. And Minnesota is about as average as you can get.

 

It's nice to see them finish the season well, but I wouldn't call that some amazing sign that this team has what it takes to compete for a top 25 spot all season.

 

Where the hell is all this blind optimism coming from? We're freaking Illinois people. We rarely meet or exceed expectations.

Alright, so just throw out the wins and lets focus on the losses. Sorry for the blind optimism. Also, we exceeded expectations last year and met expectations this year.

 

[RockRaines]

We rarely meet or exceed expectations.

Depends on whose expectations. They are about what most people thought they would be this year.

[illinilaw08]

I'm not being condescending at all, just saying that calling something a lock when there are so many question marks and so much improvement needed is silly. Look at the "predictive formula" that is being applied to Illinois that is never looked at in regards to the rest of the conference that they have to play day in and day out. I am being skeptical since the program and the players havent made much noise since about 2005.

 

I dont understand why there is such a problem with me being skeptical.

 

I agree with you if this is an argument about semantics. Nothing in sports is a "lock." Next year's Illinois team should be much improved, but unless a team is an NC contender, no one is a lock for the tournament. The weaknesses this year, in my mind, were (1) depth, and (2) shooting. It's not a coincidence that the best stretch for Illinois this year came when Hill and Nunn were ready for big minutes (helping with both 1 and 2).

 

Illinois doesn't have a top 10 recruiting class next year by an ordinary metric (incoming freshmen), but I would be surprised if anyone in the B1G gets greater production from newcomers next year than Illinois (save maybe Ohio State with as good as their class looks). Cosby averaged better than 12 ppg on 40% 3 pt shooting in the Big East last year. Starks averaged better than 10 ppg on 40% 3 pt shooting in the Pac-12. Darius Paul has the lowest pedigree of the three, but averaged 10 and 6 as a freshman. Add to that Leron Black, a top 40 incoming freshman at a position of need, and it's reasonable to see why Illinois is adding a LOT to next year's roster (and that's without taking into account reasonable improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 for Hill and Nunn).

 

Illinois loses very, very little this year. Ekey was useful. Bertrand had his moments. But both were really limited players whose minutes should easily be replaced (Bertrand by Cosby; Ekey by either greater minutes for Hill or some combination of Paul/Black).

 

So Illinois improves both depth and shooting next year from a team that won 5 of its last 7 (Nebraska, @Minnesota, @MSU, @Iowa, Indiana) with both losses coming to Michigan. I don't think anyone here is saying that Illinois is going to be a National Championship contender next year, but anything less than the NCAA tournament would be an extreme disappointment. Contrast that to this season when lots of people expressed concern about depth (10 eligible scholarship players, 5 of whom were freshmen) and shooting before the season.

 

The point here... Groce has done a very impressive job of remaking this roster after the end of last season. This year was always going to be a down year because of the roster turnover. It's unreasonable to not be optimistic about Illinois basketball next year.

[RockRaines]

Another example of "locks" being a bunch of nonsense. OSU was supposed to be a final four contender. They're not even a top 25 team.

A first round loss wouldnt be surprising if they faced someone like Mercer.

 

We lose defense and "heart" but add a lot of shooting. Our offense "should" be better.

Edited March 14, 2014 by RockRaines

[Jenksismyhero]

Alright, so just throw out the wins and lets focus on the losses. Sorry for the blind optimism. Also, we exceeded expectations last year and met expectations this year.

 

I'm saying let's look at both. They also lost games this year too. They didn't play well at times. They had the worse losing streak in 70 something years. You have to factor that in as well.

[illinilaw08]

I don't disagree. Things are looking better. I just can't go so far as to predict this team is a "lock" for a top 25ish, top 7ish seed. That's insane with so many question marks. I would have said Indiana was a lock for the tourney this year and it didn't work out. And not because of injury, just because they had a lot of good talent on paper that didn't really pan out as their fans had hoped.

 

I mean, you guys realize it'll be basically the same team next year but with a slightly better supporting cast right? It'll be the same starting five next year. You hope that the transfers can be better than Ekey and Bertrand. But that's not a certainty.

 

Here are my issues with next years team:

 

(1) Too many guards for this expected mass turn around - Abrams/Rice/Nunn are your starters. How do Starks and Crosby fit in? How do they play defense? Nunn shows flashes. Rice shows flashes. And both, Rice especially though, disappear for long stretches.

 

(2) The four spot is a sophomore and a freshman. How's that going to work out over 40 minutes a game? Or do you go small (Starks is 6'2", Crosby is under 6') and give up rebounding?

 

(3) The PG and C on the team aren't consistent threats offensively. Abrams will have a good game and then have 5 games with less than 5 pts. He didn't progress this year, why would you think that would change next year? Same with Egwu. All that stuff about him shooting 10000 shots, and by the end of the year he couldn't hit a jump shot to save his life. You can't rely on that.

 

On 1, you can never have too many guards in CBB. It's reasonable to have a 5 guard rotation. Starks spells Tracy at the 1. Whoever doesn't start out of Cosby/Rice/Nunn takes on the Bertrand role this year. Plenty of minutes to go around. And are you really complaining about too many guys at a position?

 

On 2, there are tons of options at the 4. Paul/Black/Hill should reasonably be able to give you consistent rebounding/effort points. The small lineups will feature Hill at the 4.

 

On 3, some combination of Abrams and Cosby will provide offense at the 1. And you don't need Egwu to score if he's as much of a difference maker on defense as he was down the stretch. Today was a perfect example of Egwu. He got second chance points and influenced the game significantly defensively. It is also reasonable to expect that Morgan will make a leap from Year 1 to Year 2 allowing Egwu to play less minutes which, hopefully, translates to better jump shooting.

 

This team closed the season really well (we all know how hard it is to win on the road in the B1G - especially when you are a mediocre team - so I find it odd that you are saying the win @East Lansing wasn't a really, really good win). Yeah, there are question marks but if you can't see why next year's team should be much better than this year, I don't know what to tell you.

[Boogua]

I'm saying let's look at both. They also lost games this year too. They didn't play well at times. They had the worse losing streak in 70 something years. You have to factor that in as well.

The lineup during that streak was different than the lineup that has played of late. Groce took too long to make the switch, although Nunn and hill were much worse players earlier in the season.

[RockRaines]

Pitchford again with contact after the whistle. When is that a T?