Dunn not in the best shape of his life

[witesoxfan]

And you'll defend his right to think it!

 

To the death.

[The Ultimate Champion]

TUC sounds like he's a little sore from so many people pointing out that he's wrong. Einstein said that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. I guess that makes me insane for thinking that logic will prevail in this instance.

 

 

 

I have chosen my friends in life well, but thanks for your opinion. I have considered it and do not agree with it.

SoxTalk: "The world is flat, so don't go sailing too far or you'll fall right off of it and into Heaven, which we currently believe is a giant bowl of jello."

 

Wite: "I like jello."

 

SS2K5: JELL-O ‏@JELLO Aug 26

It doesn’t cure hair loss, but creamy chocolatey JELL-O Pudding can make even the toughest day easy to swallow. http://tinyurl.com/jw5ne74

[The Ultimate Champion]

To the death.

Prove it.

[RockRaines]

That would be a terrible gamble my friend.

 

Dunn as a FA right now is lucky to get $2M. Hell, he'd be lucky to even get a guaranteed MLB contract. Check Thome, Jim for a recent example of a better hitter with a better career coming off a better season & still no one wants him. And what's Thome now anyway? 40 or so? Jim Thome still is a better hitter than Adam Dunn, no bulls***, I'd absolutely f***ing bet on it. And Thome's a better leader too and actually gets it. Baseball brain vs. donkey brain. Dump Adam & make the DH spot the Paulie & Jimmy farewell tour instead.

LOL, brain power still didnt come back for you huh? The fact you think they can "dump" Adam Dunn just like that is hilarious to me. Can you please explain how the White Sox or any professional baseball team could just "dump" a player like Adam Dunn.

[witesoxfan]

Prove it.

 

Are you trying to take away Oldsox's power to an opinion? Then you are taking away his freedom of speech. Unless there is something doing that, then I have no need.

[witesoxfan]

LOL, brain power still didnt come back for you huh? The fact you think they can "dump" Adam Dunn just like that is hilarious to me. Can you please explain how the White Sox or any professional baseball team could just "dump" a player like Adam Dunn.

 

He is going to say "Easy. Release him." because that's easy and teams are often so willing to simply just give away $15 million.

[Dick Allen]

He is going to say "Easy. Release him." because that's easy and teams are often so willing to simply just give away $15 million.

On the other hand, paying him $15 million to play like he's played is giving $15 million away anyway. I don't agree with releasing him, but I doubt he suddenly becomes the hitter the Sox thought they were getting this season. 2 out of the 3 seasons he's been with the team, he has been a negative WAR. If you think he's going to do that again and you have to pay him anyway, paying $15 million for a zero WAR is better than paying $15 million for one less than that.

[witesoxfan]

On the other hand, paying him $15 million to play like he's played is giving $15 million away anyway. I don't agree with releasing him, but I doubt he suddenly becomes the hitter the Sox thought they were getting this season. 2 out of the 3 seasons he's been with the team, he has been a negative WAR. If you think he's going to do that again and you have to pay him anyway, paying $15 million for a zero WAR is better than paying $15 million for one less than that.

 

I don't necessarily disagree, nor have I ever disagreed with this, but there's no reason not to try and save some money. That means it's going to roll all the way into September and personally, I don't see any way Dunn is on the White Sox come September 1st. The guy does hit righties pretty well still and he can be relatively cheap at that point in the year. Why eat $15 million if you can even save $1.5 or $2 or $3 mill or whatever?

 

By all accounts he's great in the clubhouse, they are going to need him if they are going to compete at all, and they'll likely end up saving some money at the end of the day anyways. There is absolutely 0 point in releasing him.

Edited March 17, 2014 by witesoxfan

[Dick Allen]

Didn't the Dodgers release Andruw Jones owing him a lot more money than the Sox owe Dunn?

It isn't going to happen, and I don't think it should, at least now. Maybe if he is struggling on June 1st, you pull the plug, but releasing him and eating that sum of cash isn't unprecedented.

Edited March 17, 2014 by Dick Allen

[The Ultimate Champion]

I don't necessarily disagree, nor have I ever disagreed with this, but there's no reason not to try and save some money. That means it's going to roll all the way into September and personally, I don't see any way Dunn is on the White Sox come September 1st. The guy does hit righties pretty well still and he can be relatively cheap at that point in the year. Why eat $15 million if you can even save $1.5 or $2 or $3 mill or whatever?

 

By all accounts he's great in the clubhouse, they are going to need him if they are going to compete at all, and they'll likely end up saving some money at the end of the day anyways. There is absolutely 0 point in releasing him.

So let's say you play Dunn all the time & you end up saving $3M because of it. Really, I think that's a seriously generous amount but whatever. You spend half a season's worth of PA against RHP to get that & those come at the expense of DeAza and Viciedo. Maybe you have to take 50 cents on the dollar for one of those guys to make it happen, and you lose the ability to carry a true CF backup with it. Is that measly $3M savings worth taking a lesser return on a piece that could conceivably actually bring back something worthwhile? I'll answer for you since you can't do it correctly yourself: NO, it is not.

 

What are the Sox giving to Belisario, something like $3.5M IIRC? What do they get for him at the deadline or over the offseason if he's pretty good? IMO they don't get nearly as much as they could get for DeAza if he's even decent, and it's far less of a return than they'd get out of Viciedo if he shows a pulse this season. And do the Sox REALLY need Belisario? No, they don't. Like Boggs and Paulino, he's someone who hopefully turns into something useful which you can then flip. Keeping Dunn to save a couple mil at the expense of a potentially larger & more meaningful return later is absolutely stupid.

 

And I've said this a thousand times but you guys still don't get it:

1) The Chicago White Sox alone, and none of the other 29 teams in the league, are obligated to pay Adam Dunn $15M this year no matter what he does.

2) No other team wants to help subsidize Dunn's salary.

3) This all means that the money is gone, bye bye, it left in the form of a guaranteed contract over the 2011-12 offseason. You don't get any of that back UNLESS some team just decides they want to help you. And the only way that happens is if Dunn is good. And even if he is, do you REALLY want a couple mil savings? No, you want a prospect with a pulse. And looking at Dunn's Sox career, and looking at his age, and his swing, and the fact that by sitting vs. LHP he'll see even less live pitching (remember these games aren't played on paper and Dunn standing there in the box actually does not have the makeup of your prototypical platoon player), when factoring in all this, how likely is it that you get the return you are looking for? What are those odds? Compare those odds to those of DeAza improving his game & Viciedo also improving. The best odds say that you go with those 2 over Dunn, and you take the 4th OF candidate in Danks which allows you to keep your LFers comfortable in CF as you look to build their value.

Edited March 17, 2014 by The Ultimate Champion

[ScottyDo]

So let's say you play Dunn all the time & you end up saving $3M because of it. Really, I think that's a seriously generous amount but whatever. You spend half a season's worth of PA against RHP to get that & those come at the expense of DeAza and Viciedo. Maybe you have to take 50 cents on the dollar for one of those guys to make it happen, and you lose the ability to carry a true CF backup with it. Is that measly $3M savings worth taking a lesser return on a piece that could conceivably actually bring back something worthwhile? I'll answer for you since you can't do it correctly yourself: NO, it is not.

 

What are the Sox giving to Belisario, something like $3.5M IIRC? What do they get for him at the deadline or over the offseason if he's pretty good? IMO they don't get nearly as much as they could get for DeAza if he's even decent, and it's far less of a return than they'd get out of Viciedo if he shows a pulse this season. And do the Sox REALLY need Belisario? No, they don't. Like Boggs and Paulino, he's someone who hopefully turns into something useful which you can then flip. Keeping Dunn to save a couple mil at the expense of a potentially larger & more meaningful return later is absolutely stupid.

 

And I've said this a thousand times but you guys still don't get it:

1) The Chicago White Sox alone, and none of the other 29 teams in the league, are obligated to pay Adam Dunn $15M this year no matter what he does.

2) No other team wants to help subsidize Dunn's salary.

3) This all means that the money is gone, bye bye, it left in the form of a guaranteed contract over the 2011-12 offseason. You don't get any of that back UNLESS some team just decides they want to help you. And the only way that happens is if Dunn is good. And even if he is, do you REALLY want a couple mil savings? No, you want a prospect with a pulse. And looking at Dunn's Sox career, and looking at his age, and his swing, and the fact that by sitting vs. LHP he'll see even less live pitching (remember these games aren't played on paper and Dunn standing there in the box actually does not have the makeup of your prototypical platoon player), when factoring in all this, how likely is it that you get the return you are looking for? What are those odds? Compare those odds to those of DeAza improving his game & Viciedo also improving. The best odds say that you go with those 2 over Dunn, and you take the 4th OF candidate in Danks which allows you to keep your LFers comfortable in CF as you look to build their value.

Assumption. All that follows is based on this assumption. If others disagree with your assumption, they are not stupid for disagreeing with the claims that follow.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Assumption. All that follows is based on this assumption. If others disagree with your assumption, they are not stupid for disagreeing with the claims that follow.

I think you can reasonably assume that owners of one team with extra $$$ in their pockets don't cut checks to their rivals just because they can.

 

Head, take it out of the sand. The only way anyone wants Dunn is if he's good, looks useful, and the only way anyone takes on ANY salary is because it would save them from giving up a prospect. Which is why I mentioned Belisario & Boggs, Paulino as well, we signed those guys because we did NOT want the savings (we could have put Rienzo and Webb in the pen, maybe Petricka too), we signed them because we want to flip a vet for a prospect. So if some team thought Dunn was worth $2-3M in savings of a halfway decent spect the Sox would want the spect. They added $1M to the Texas deal just to get Leury.

 

[witesoxfan]

I think you can reasonably assume that owners of one team with extra $$$ in their pockets don't cut checks to their rivals just because they can.

 

Head, take it out of the sand. The only way anyone wants Dunn is if he's good, looks useful, and the only way anyone takes on ANY salary is because it would save them from giving up a prospect. Which is why I mentioned Belisario & Boggs, Paulino as well, we signed those guys because we did NOT want the savings (we could have put Rienzo and Webb in the pen, maybe Petricka too), we signed them because we want to flip a vet for a prospect. So if some team thought Dunn was worth $2-3M in savings of a halfway decent spect the Sox would want the spect. They added $1M to the Texas deal just to get Leury.

 

They signed them because they feel those players help the Sox to compete this year. You continue to trumpet the idea that the Sox have known all along that they have no intentions of competing, and while they may not be the favorite, they absolutely will do everything in their power to compete. We did not believe they would be competitive in 2008, 2010, or 2012 and they went out and were competitive to the very end on all 3 of those seasons.

 

And there will certainly be teams interested in taking on some money to have Dunn in their lineup the last 2 months. At the time he was traded, Soriano was hitting .254/.287/.467/.754. Dunn will almost certainly be hitting at or above that level. People also understand that his value comes against RHP, and with no commitment into next year, they will be far more willing to include some money. Desperation increases the amount that you are willing to pay for a service or good, which is how a typically conservative ownership group headed by Jerry Reinsdorf paid $4 million for 1 month of Manny Ramirez.

 

At this juncture, you are virtually the only person on this entire board who believes the right move is to release Dunn prior to opening day. If there is a right/wrong, that should tell you everything you need to know.

Edited March 17, 2014 by witesoxfan

[The Ultimate Champion]

Didn't the Dodgers release Andruw Jones owing him a lot more money than the Sox owe Dunn?

It isn't going to happen, and I don't think it should, at least now. Maybe if he is struggling on June 1st, you pull the plug, but releasing him and eating that sum of cash isn't unprecedented.

THey deferred a lot of that money as well. And it was a deal that the MLBPA had to sign off on & did so immediately because it made a ton of sense. The Dodgers didn't want to play Jones and Jones wanted to continue his playing career, so that deal allowed Jones to reinvent himself as a bench guy with the Rangers, and he extended his career because of it, playing in Texas, then here, then with the Yankees. I mentioned that model before because it would be a great one to follow. Dunn doesn't need to be here & he doesn't seem to want to be here either. So let him go.

 

Otherwise, if you straight release him and he signs for $1M elsewhere you automatically save $500K. So if you're only looking at saving $2-3M anyway you're already talking about a good chunk of that.

 

You just have to look around the market & see what Dunn would be worth right now as a FA. Could he even get a guaranteed MLB contract? If so, it probably tops out at $2M or so and it's likely to be more like $1-1.5M as a base plus incentives. That great disparity between what his market value currently is and what the Sox are obligated to pay him ($15M) absolutely HAS to be bridged by the Sox for any deal to happen at any point. And once you bridge that gap you're looking at an insignificant savings for a team already supposedly under budget, and the real thing you need to consider is whether or not it's worth it to run him out there in the hope that you can get enough of a prospect in return to justify taking the PA away from someone else.

 

And it's obviously not worth it, because both DeAza & Viciedo are "competing" for a LF spot. Those guys could split 2 positions and each get a full season of AB without Dunn on the roster.

[RockRaines]

On the other hand, paying him $15 million to play like he's played is giving $15 million away anyway. I don't agree with releasing him, but I doubt he suddenly becomes the hitter the Sox thought they were getting this season. 2 out of the 3 seasons he's been with the team, he has been a negative WAR. If you think he's going to do that again and you have to pay him anyway, paying $15 million for a zero WAR is better than paying $15 million for one less than that.

Would you pay 15 million for him to play for the Sox or another team. There is your choice. Dont forget this is the White Sox and not a large payroll big market team.

[The Ultimate Champion]

They signed them because they feel those players help the Sox to compete this year. You continue to trumpet the idea that the Sox have known all along that they have no intentions of competing, and while they may not be the favorite, they absolutely will do everything in their power to compete. We did not believe they would be competitive in 2008, 2010, or 2012 and they went out and were competitive to the very end on all 3 of those seasons.

 

And there will certainly be teams interested in taking on some money to have Dunn in their lineup the last 2 months. At the time he was traded, Soriano was hitting .254/.287/.467/.754. Dunn will almost certainly be hitting at or above that level. People also understand that his value comes against RHP, and with no commitment into next year, they will be far more willing to include some money. Desperation increases the amount that you are willing to pay for a service or good, which is how a typically conservative ownership group headed by Jerry Reinsdorf paid $4 million for 1 month of Manny Ramirez.

 

At this juncture, you are virtually the only person on this entire board who believes the right move is to release Dunn prior to opening day. If there is a right/wrong, that should tell you everything you need to know.

Even Hawk thinks we're about 2015. Hahn has basically said as much himself. The only thing the Sox don't want to do is "punt" the season looking to Tank for the draft pick, and when you look at even their MiLB philosophy, the organization as a whole seems to prefer bringing guys along in more of a winning environment. That doesn't mean they think they are going to compete this year. They are just looking to continue building their core & they would like to do so without having to exist in a period of absolutely brutal, unwatchable baseball.

 

Who can play Dunn & give him any PAs? Teams like versatile players. Soriano has some speed & even as a butcher he has an arm and can play the OF a bit. And still, you're talking about the Yankees who also covered a chunk of Vernon Wells. When they have a need they'll take on some cash to save a spect, but there aren't many teams like that, especially those in need of a Dunn. If there are only 2 suitors out there & both of them would rather acquire ADA from the Sox and get some speed, more contact, and some versatility then the Sox have no leverage at all. Just try to think who would want Dunn and for what reason, and then remember that teams like the Cubs and Astros and Mets who also project as sellers will have LH bats on the market as well. I'd much rather have a ADA or Schierholtz than Dunn on the roster, especially if I already had pop elsewhere. Sox will be very lucky to find someone who will give up a mediocre prospect or take on $2-3M savings in order to keep that prospect. Both? Good f***ing luck, and since I'm the crazy Jesus lover you can go ahead & kiss Saint Peter for me while your head is in the f***ing clouds.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Would you pay 15 million for him to play for the Sox or another team. There is your choice. Dont forget this is the White Sox and not a large payroll big market team.

If his WAR is negative then the Sox should be willing to pay him $17M to play for the Tigers.

[ScottyDo]

If his WAR is negative then the Sox should be willing to pay him $17M to play for the Tigers.

Dunn's WAR depends on what position he plays. He won't be a negative WAR for all teams, particularly not a team that will use him more situationally than the Sox have. He's got a skill left intact, specifically pretty massive power, and that will provide positive value in many situations, lineups and parks.

 

I don't know why you can't just admit that those of us who believe Dunn has a modicum of value are holding a reasonable position. Instead, you end up like the guy on the street corner raving about how everyone else is doomed because of their ignorance. Keep waving your cardboard sign, man. You'll convince the passersby one of these days!

[Dick Allen]

Would you pay 15 million for him to play for the Sox or another team. There is your choice. Dont forget this is the White Sox and not a large payroll big market team.

The fact is they are going to have to pay him anyway. If he can't help you win, there is no reason to have him on the roster. I wouldn't get rid of him yet. But if he isn't doing anything in the middle of May or the beginning of June, it's not like he will bring you back anything. It would probably be best for all involved to let him go.

 

Unlike TUC, I would definitely see where he is at this season, first. I am not expecting much,, but stranger things have happened than Adam Dunn being somewhat productive, and he is a good guy so it's not like he is poisoning the clubhouse. It will be interesting to see how this develops. If he sucks, I doubt he lasts the entire season with the White Sox, even if they have to eat the maximum.

Edited March 17, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

Guys! Guys, guys.

 

Is the chance to save $2m worth taking 200 ABs away from Jordan Danks?

 

It doesn't matter.

 

Whoever is right on this isn't right by much. It's okay.

[Dick Allen]

Dunn's WAR depends on what position he plays. He won't be a negative WAR for all teams, particularly not a team that will use him more situationally than the Sox have. He's got a skill left intact, specifically pretty massive power, and that will provide positive value in many situations, lineups and parks.

 

I don't know why you can't just admit that those of us who believe Dunn has a modicum of value are holding a reasonable position. Instead, you end up like the guy on the street corner raving about how everyone else is doomed because of their ignorance. Keep waving your cardboard sign, man. You'll convince the passersby one of these days!

The fact is anyone who says Dunn has some value or is holding out hope he can build some, is basing it on how much money he is owed. If he were making $4-5 million, I doubt many would be arguing any post saying release him, and it is highly unlikely the White Sox get anything of value for him at the deadline even if he is productive. Look what Rios brought back.

 

I think we all agree Adam Dunn sucks.

Edited March 17, 2014 by Dick Allen

[RockRaines]

The fact is they are going to have to pay him anyway. If he can't help you win, there is no reason to have him on the roster. I wouldn't get rid of him yet. But if he isn't doing anything in the middle of May or the beginning of June, it's not like he will bring you back anything. It would probably be best for all involved to let him go.

 

Unlike TUC, I would definitely see where he is at this season, first. I am not expecting much,, but stranger things have happened than Adam Dunn being somewhat productive, and he is a good guy so it's not like he is poisoning the clubhouse. It will be interesting to see how this develops. If he sucks, I doubt he lasts the entire season with the White Sox, even if they have to eat the maximum.

I think you've nailed the White Sox thinking on this as well.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Dunn's WAR depends on what position he plays. He won't be a negative WAR for all teams, particularly not a team that will use him more situationally than the Sox have. He's got a skill left intact, specifically pretty massive power, and that will provide positive value in many situations, lineups and parks.

 

I don't know why you can't just admit that those of us who believe Dunn has a modicum of value are holding a reasonable position. Instead, you end up like the guy on the street corner raving about how everyone else is doomed because of their ignorance. Keep waving your cardboard sign, man. You'll convince the passersby one of these days!

OK so here it is, what you guys just can't understand.

 

You admit (once again) that Dunn's value is very, very small.

 

You all also know that the Sox are having both DeAza & Viciedo compete for 1 position BECAUSE Dunn is taking up the DH slot.

 

You all also know that as a result, Dunn is going to take PA from both DeAza & Viciedo, AND that the Sox will lose a bench spot because of Dunn.

 

So you are all willing to sacrifice a full season of PA for both ADA & Viciedo AND you also will accept a less versatile bench BECAUSE you insist on capitalizing on this "modicum" of value.

 

Now how does that make any sense?

 

You've got potentially a bullpen of 7 relievers all with prior MLB experience who could all bring back at least as much if they're quality, and you've got 2 guys in ADA & Viciedo who could potentially bring in real returns. How does keeping Dunn make any sense?

[ScottyDo]

The fact is anyone who says Dunn has some value or is holding out hope he can build some, is basing it on how much money he is owed. If he were making $4-5 million, I doubt many would be arguing any post saying release him, and it is highly unlikely the White Sox get anything of value for him at the deadline even if he is productive. Look what Rios brought back.

 

I think we all agree Adam Dunn sucks.

But I bet I can get a jersey dirt cheap right now

[Dick Allen]

But I bet I can get a jersey dirt cheap right now

Really cheap. Especially last year's model since he changed numbers.