Tyler Flowers is your 2014 starting catcher

[southsider2k5]

Really, the Sox fan base should be grateful for the job the Reinsdorf ownership group has done.

 

Honestly it is comical that some seem to believe that the organization operates with no influence from its customer base. As if the team functions in a vacuum.

[Marty34]

Honestly it is comical that some seem to believe that the organization operates with no influence from its customer base. As if the team functions in a vacuum.

 

Is it not ownership's responsibility to grow the customer base.

[witesoxfan]

Really, the Sox fan base should be grateful for the job the Reinsdorf ownership group has done.

 

I don't think I've ever agreed this much with something you've said. Because it's such a fickle bunch, Williams' hands were tied when it came to any sort of rebuilding project (though I think Williams' inherent competitiveness drove that too, while Hahn seems to be a bigger picture kind of guy with an eye towards the present as well). The fact is, in the last 15 years, the Sox have been to the playoffs 3 times, nearly made the playoffs on 3 other occasions, won a World Series, and very rarely put a bad product on the field. Ask almost any other team in baseball if they'd trade that time frame in their history with the Sox. In the AL, I can only think of LAA, New York, and Boston that would keep theirs, and in the NL St. Louis, San Francisco, and then maybe Arizona and Philadelphia, but both of those two had some really hard times in that period as well.

 

(Note that this is looking in a vacuum and isn't considering the last 15 years while moving forward, where a team like the Dodgers absolutely would take their history and the Magic takeover compared to the Sox, but that's a different conversation).

 

The Sox have been an incredibly successful franchise, and it's already looking pretty good moving forward right now too. There are a lot of other decisions and moves to be made, but so far so good.

[southsider2k5]

Is it not ownership's responsibility to grow the customer base.

 

Which is why they have to be sensitive to the fans. Because a large portion of the fanbase is still hung up on 20/30/40/50 years ago, they have to take stupid things like White Flag into account. If they don't, all of the fair weathers abandon the team in droves, while taking to the airwaves b****ing about stuff that happened before they were born.

[southsider2k5]

I don't think I've ever agreed this much with something you've said. Because it's such a fickle bunch, Williams' hands were tied when it came to any sort of rebuilding project (though I think Williams' inherent competitiveness drove that too, while Hahn seems to be a bigger picture kind of guy with an eye towards the present as well). The fact is, in the last 15 years, the Sox have been to the playoffs 3 times, nearly made the playoffs on 3 other occasions, won a World Series, and very rarely put a bad product on the field. Ask almost any other team in baseball if they'd trade that time frame in their history with the Sox. In the AL, I can only think of LAA, New York, and Boston that would keep theirs, and in the NL St. Louis, San Francisco, and then maybe Arizona and Philadelphia, but both of those two had some really hard times in that period as well.

 

(Note that this is looking in a vacuum and isn't considering the last 15 years while moving forward, where a team like the Dodgers absolutely would take their history and the Magic takeover compared to the Sox, but that's a different conversation).

 

The Sox have been an incredibly successful franchise, and it's already looking pretty good moving forward right now too. There are a lot of other decisions and moves to be made, but so far so good.

 

Prepare for the goalposts to be moved.

[royoung]

It's unlikely that all of these prospects turn out well, that said aside from catcher and probably another LH hitter somewhere I'm willing to roll dice on the position players.

 

I think it's still debatable whether Quintana is a #2 or #3 on a playoff team with the contract he signed though it doesn't matter because if nothing else that boosted his trade value. If Quintana settles in as a #3, he may be able to be packaged with a Beck or Bassit for an established #2 with Johnson hopefully sliding in at #3.

 

 

For the sake of the argument, let's assume Q "settles in as a #3," which I am not agreeing to. But if he's a #3 starter, why in the world would you trade a #3 starter with a very team friendly contract for a slightly better pitcher and throw one of our top pitching prospects??? If Johnson slides in at #3 and you trade Beck who would be our #4 and #5 in that scenario?

 

Hahn gave Q this contract because he is going to pitching with Sale at the top of our rotation for a long time. He's not going anywhere.

[caulfield12]

For the sake of the argument, let's assume Q "settles in as a #3," which I am not agreeing to. But if he's a #3 starter, why in the world would you trade a #3 starter with a very team friendly contract for a slightly better pitcher and throw one of our top pitching prospects??? If Johnson slides in at #3 and you trade Beck who would be our #4 and #5 in that scenario?

 

Hahn gave Q this contract because he is going to pitching with Sale at the top of our rotation for a long time. He's not going anywhere.

 

 

It only makes sense if you're setting up a playoff rotation.

 

For a 162 game season, you need an ace, three solid starters and a fifth who gives you a chance to win 50% of the time...at least not a black hole like in 2003.

[Eminor3rd]

Is it not ownership's responsibility to grow the customer base.

 

They're trying to do that now by creating a sustainable model for wins instead of stupid, flashy moves that impress people like you for about 19 games until you start b****ing about Adam Dunn.

[southsider2k5]

They're trying to do that now by creating a sustainable model for wins instead of stupid, flashy moves that impress people like you for about 19 microseconds until you start b****ing about Adam Dunn.

 

[2nd_city_saint787]

It's unlikely that all of these prospects turn out well, that said aside from catcher and probably another LH hitter somewhere I'm willing to roll dice on the position players.

 

I think it's still debatable whether Quintana is a #2 or #3 on a playoff team with the contract he signed though it doesn't matter because if nothing else that boosted his trade value. If Quintana settles in as a #3, he may be able to be packaged with a Beck or Bassit for an established #2 with Johnson hopefully sliding in at #3.

 

IMO Q is a solid #2. When you look at his stats, and I'm not even looking at fangraph stats here, you can make a real good argument that he was one of the top 25 pitchers in the league last year.

 

Among pitcher who pitched at least 120 innings...

 

23rd in era

19th in whip

18th in Ks

 

It's pretty hard to argue against those numbers. If the Sox had a better offense/bullpen and even 1/4th of his no decisions turned into Ws he'd have 13 wins. Only 14 pitchers had more than that.

 

Hell, looking at those numbers you could really build a case that he's a #1 on a bad team. For sure a solid #2 on a good team if he pitches like he did last year.

 

He's not that dominate ace who has lights out stuff but we saw with a guy named Mark Buehrle that having that lights out stuff doesn't necessarily mean you can't be a really good pitcher.

 

 

As for the other part of your post, I agree there's a chance some of them flame out, but that's also why I wouldn't go balls out on a guy like Ervin Santana who's getting up there in age and could flame out before they either they contend. Lets see what these guys got before we go all willy nilly with the payroll.

 

[beautox]

I think Q is a #2 all around and there aren't many staffs in baseball that wouldn't love to have him, especially with his recent contract extension. My big prediction is that Q will actually out pitch Sale this year to the tune of a 6WAR season and a CY.

[caulfield12]

I think Q is a #2 all around and there aren't many staffs in baseball that wouldn't love to have him, especially with his recent contract extension. My big prediction is that Q will actually out pitch Sale this year to the tune of a 6WAR season and a CY.

 

 

Wow. That's quite a limb you are out there on.

[Balta1701]

Wow. That's quite a limb you are out there on.

I agree it's out on a limb, but there's a valid point buried in there. Quintana is going into his 3rd year after a solid first year and a dramatic improvement his 2nd year. He picked up extra velocity and his offspeed stuff became much more effective.

 

I doubt he'll make another velocity jump this year (I attribute that to his arm being better-adjusted to the workload), but continued refinement of his offspeed stuff could well give him a chance to continue improving.

[witesoxfan]

I think Q is a #2 all around and there aren't many staffs in baseball that wouldn't love to have him, especially with his recent contract extension. My big prediction is that Q will actually out pitch Sale this year to the tune of a 6WAR season and a CY.

 

Even if Quintana improves, I just don't think the stuff is there for him to be that good. You can see this with his SwStr%. Sale is consistently above average in the 10.5%. Kershaw has typically been around 11% in recent years and it was a ridiculous 17.7% last year. Last year, even with an increase in SwStr%, Quintana's 8.8% was below the 9.3% league average. He could improve that and still be only about average.

 

I honestly don't feel bad in saying that this one is going to be wrong. Unless he gets more tilt or slide on his slider to help differentiate from his cutter, he simply doesn't have the stuff capable of doing that. In fact, I'm actually expecting him to regress back to about a 2.5-3 WAR pitcher this year with his K-rate normalizing and being in the 6.75 range.

[Eminor3rd]

Even if Quintana improves, I just don't think the stuff is there for him to be that good. You can see this with his SwStr%. Sale is consistently above average in the 10.5%. Kershaw has typically been around 11% in recent years and it was a ridiculous 17.7% last year. Last year, even with an increase in SwStr%, Quintana's 8.8% was below the 9.3% league average. He could improve that and still be only about average.

 

I honestly don't feel bad in saying that this one is going to be wrong. Unless he gets more tilt or slide on his slider to help differentiate from his cutter, he simply doesn't have the stuff capable of doing that. In fact, I'm actually expecting him to regress back to about a 2.5-3 WAR pitcher this year with his K-rate normalizing and being in the 6.75 range.

 

Agree 100%. I think we saw his peak last year, but the improvements in his stuff are likely to be sustainable, so he should still be solid.

[witesoxfan]

Agree 100%. I think we saw his peak last year, but the improvements in his stuff are likely to be sustainable, so he should still be solid.

 

And that's not a bad thing. Realistically, I think Quintana evolves into an inning eating #3 starter who you have no problem running out in the postseason. His stuff is good enough and deceptive enough to get good hitters out on a consistent basis, but unlike a guy like Sale, Verlander, Kershaw, or whoever, he really doesn't have the ability to shut down opponents when he isn't on.

 

Again, this is not a bad thing. Jose Quintana is a very good pitcher and this is a very good contract.

Edited March 25, 2014 by witesoxfan

[caulfield12]

That's why we need to hit it on the head with the college pitchers in June...

 

It's doubtful that Beck ever becomes a 2 at the major league level, and the price keeps going up and up for free agents, so the only true source of #2 starters for 75% of MLB is either through the draft or getting lucky with a Japanese/Korean/Cuban pitcher.

 

Time will tell with Tanaka, but with the huge amount of mileage already on his arm, I think we're going to be glad in the end we didn't end up winning that bidding war. Just a hunch.

 

He's reliant on a ton of movement more than velocity/explosiveness (Darvish), so just have a feeling he might do pretty well for a couple of seasons but that contract will more than likely end up like Dice K's. New York can be the most unforgiving place to pitch, everyone knows that, and he's going to be under the microscope from the first week of the season, with all of the money they've invested in free agents to get back to a competitive level again this year.

[witesoxfan]

That's why we need to hit it on the head with the college pitchers in June...

 

It's doubtful that Beck ever becomes a 2 at the major league level, and the price keeps going up and up for free agents, so the only true source of #2 starters for 75% of MLB is either through the draft or getting lucky with a Japanese/Korean/Cuban pitcher.

 

Time will tell with Tanaka, but with the huge amount of mileage already on his arm, I think we're going to be glad in the end we didn't end up winning that bidding war. Just a hunch.

 

He's reliant on a ton of movement more than velocity/explosiveness (Darvish), so just have a feeling he might do pretty well for a couple of seasons but that contract will more than likely end up like Dice K's. New York can be the most unforgiving place to pitch, everyone knows that, and he's going to be under the microscope from the first week of the season, with all of the money they've invested in free agents to get back to a competitive level again this year.

 

I'm far more optimistic about Beck than most and while I don't necessarily think he has the highest ceiling in the minor leagues, he was once considered a surefire top 5 pick. The kid has a nice arm.

[harfman77]

I'm far more optimistic about Beck than most and while I don't necessarily think he has the highest ceiling in the minor leagues, he was once considered a surefire top 5 pick. The kid has a nice arm.

 

Right there with you on Beck, but I do think he is the pitcher with the highest ceiling that we have in the minors now. If he puts it altogether, he has the makings of a solid #2 behind Sale.

[southsider2k5]

Right there with you on Beck, but I do think he is the pitcher with the highest ceiling that we have in the minors now. If he puts it altogether, he has the makings of a solid #2 behind Sale.

 

The guy was a potential top 5 pick. No one has the ceiling of Beck from any pitcher in the Sox system. That doesn't mean he will realize it, but it is there.

[witesoxfan]

He is close for me, but everything I'm hearing about Tyler Danish made me question it, so I didn't want to say he did for sure. Still, saying both have high upside is OK.

[southsider2k5]

He is close for me, but everything I'm hearing about Tyler Danish made me question it, so I didn't want to say he did for sure. Still, saying both have high upside is OK.

 

I can't argue with any of the Danish stuff. He is an intriguing one. Seems like scouts either love him, or hate him. No real in between.

[Marty34]

For the sake of the argument, let's assume Q "settles in as a #3," which I am not agreeing to. But if he's a #3 starter, why in the world would you trade a #3 starter with a very team friendly contract for a slightly better pitcher and throw one of our top pitching prospects??? If Johnson slides in at #3 and you trade Beck who would be our #4 and #5 in that scenario?

 

Hahn gave Q this contract because he is going to pitching with Sale at the top of our rotation for a long time. He's not going anywhere.

 

If they were sold on Quintana as a #2 why didn't they pick up a mid-rotation starter this year in free agency?

 

My thought is they either trade for another top-of-the-rotation starter or Quintana proves to be a #2 and they sign a mid-rotation free agent.

[Feeky Magee]

Given the last few comments, can the thread title be changed to 'Kolek, Beede and Danish - Tylers who could actually help the White Sox'

Edited March 25, 2014 by Feeky Magee

[witesoxfan]

If they were sold on Quintana as a #2 why didn't they pick up a mid-rotation starter this year in free agency?

 

My thought is they either trade for another top-of-the-rotation starter or Quintana proves to be a #2 and they sign a mid-rotation free agent.

 

I don't necessarily believe that Quintana is a #2 starter, but frankly, a mid-rotation starter doesn't put them over the top and they have a lot of younger or cheaper pitchers that they want to see pitch. You can't do that if you bring in said pitcher, and it stunts the development of those other pitchers.