I want Jose Tabata

[Eminor3rd]

The Pirates are shopping Jose Tabata because they have too many OF and don't want to block Polanco. He is signed for three or four more years at between $3m - $6m each and then has a bunch of options. He put up .282/.342/.429 last year, good for a 118 wRC+, over about two thirds of a season. His baserunning seems a little below average. His defense, by TZ/UZR, seems a tick above average.

 

For some reason, I keep reading that all they'll get is salary relief. What am I missing?

 

He hit only 6 homers, so he has a lot less power than your typical corner OF, but .340+ OBP doesn't grow on trees anymore.

 

I want him. The Pirates need a 1B. I want them to have Viciedo.

 

Am I crazy?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/pira...ose-tabata.html

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

We already have extra OFers we are trying to trade, so I don't see the reason to acquire even more.

[Eminor3rd]

We already have extra OFers we are trying to trade, so I don't see the reason to acquire even more.

 

Well, that's why we'd trade Viciedo. Tabata is 25 and already on an affordable extension. And is a plus defender. So he's better than all of our extras.

 

Otherwise, yeah, we'd have to DFA De Aza or something

[The Ultimate Champion]

I like him too but I don't think there's a fit.

 

Maybe some kind of 3-way where the Yanks get Beckham, Sox get Tabata, and Pirates get Cervelli with prospects/pieces thrown in to even things out. Maybe that's fair though as it is, since Cervelli is pretty decent, Tabata's only good when he's on the field, and Beckham has a nickname that used to be cool.

[The Ultimate Champion]

^There would have to be another deal to make that work though where the Sox trade an OF.

 

I'd be curious to know what the Twins would give up for DeAza, especially if the Sox threw something decent in with him. Supposedly they are thinking about dealing some spects due to slow ticket sales.

[Jose Abreu]

Well, that's why we'd trade Viciedo. Tabata is 25 and already on an affordable extension. And is a plus defender. So he's better than all of our extras.

OK, fine. We exchange an outfielder for an outfielder... problem solved!

[GreenSox]

He's an incremental upgrade. That's not what we need right now. Fill a couple of more holes first with plus players and then settle for some incremental talents.

[Eminor3rd]

He's an incremental upgrade. That's not what we need right now. Fill a couple of more holes first with plus players and then settle for some incremental talents.

 

Man I don't know about that. He's a substantially better defender and substantially better hitter than both Viciedo and De Aza, or at least he was last year. Neither one of those dudes even sniffed a 118 wRC+.

 

Projection systems like him to regress, but still. We're starving for that kind of OBP and he's 25 and extended already. De Aza is 30 and going to be a FA soon. I imagine Tabata being that #2 hitter we haven't really had since like Ray Durham or something.

[Eminor3rd]

^There would have to be another deal to make that work though where the Sox trade an OF.

 

I'd be curious to know what the Twins would give up for DeAza, especially if the Sox threw something decent in with him. Supposedly they are thinking about dealing some spects due to slow ticket sales.

 

Which, then leads me to predict that Tabata just goes straight to the Twins :'(

[witesoxfan]

Which, then leads me to predict that Tabata just goes straight to the Twins :'(

 

Trading history with the Pirates, and they were willing to take Pressley as pretty much the main piece for Morneau.

 

I could give or take Tabata. In today's game, he seems like the prototypical "different" option, the .725 OPS, high OBP, steal bases kind of player that teams want. The problem I see is that, in 1500+ plate appearances, he's yet to really improve as a ball player in the majors.

 

And be careful who you're calling a good defender. Even the fans think he's mediocre (or worse).

[hammerhead johnson]

We all know that a tree stump could probably match Viciedo's defensive ratings. Now check the 2013 wRC+ splits:

 

Tabata's wRC+ against righties: 122

De Aza's wRC+ against lefties: 123

 

Viciedo's wRC+ against righties: 98

Viciedo's wRC+ against lefties: 89

 

And it looks like Tabata is only beginning to figure things out, whereas, Viciedo is on the fast track to being a Triple A lifer.

 

It's really a no-brainer.

[harfman77]

Tabata seems more like a fourth OF. Not enough power to be a corner guy and not good enough defense to play CF. He does not hit LHP's that well and has a pretty high BABIP to average discrepancy, showing that a lot of his success against RHP is likely artificial. Viciedo is younger (6 months) and has real power in his bat. Definitely not willing to give up on Viciedo until after we see him this season.

[Eminor3rd]

Tabata seems more like a fourth OF. Not enough power to be a corner guy and not good enough defense to play CF. He does not hit LHP's that well and has a pretty high BABIP to average discrepancy, showing that a lot of his success against RHP is likely artificial. Viciedo is younger (6 months) and has real power in his bat. Definitely not willing to give up on Viciedo until after we see him this season.

 

I don't think that's how you want to use BABIP. You want to compare it to league average, and then make concessions for batted ball type. So his BABIP last year was .340 against a league average .297. But he has a career 60% GB rate, which is high compared to a league average of 45%. Groundballs have an inherently high BABIP. So we expect his BABIP to regress toward around .300, but less so than a player with normal batted ball splits. ZIPS/Steamer have him projected in the .306 - .308 range, which seems about right to me -- or maybe just a touch low, depending on how you feel about his speed.

[harfman77]

I don't think that's how you want to use BABIP. You want to compare it to league average, and then make concessions for batted ball type. So his BABIP last year was .340 against a league average .297. But he has a career 60% GB rate, which is high compared to a league average of 45%. Groundballs have an inherently high BABIP. So we expect his BABIP to regress toward around .300, but less so than a player with normal batted ball splits. ZIPS/Steamer have him projected in the .306 - .308 range, which seems about right to me -- or maybe just a touch low, depending on how you feel about his speed.

 

A .340 BABIP is not something that is generally sustainable, even if he does remain on the high end around .315-.320, his profile looks even more like a fourth OF. He is what he is, a contact bat without much else going for him. Even in the post PED era, that is not enough to play a corner spot.

[witesoxfan]

I should say, this is all cost prohibitive. If he came cheap, absolutely I would, and I'd prefer him over Danks. I doubt that's what Pittsburgh has in mind though.

[Eminor3rd]

A .340 BABIP is not something that is generally sustainable, even if he does remain on the high end around .315-.320, his profile looks even more like a fourth OF. He is what he is, a contact bat without much else going for him. Even in the post PED era, that is not enough to play a corner spot.

 

Yeah, that's what my post just said: that he wouldn't sustain a .340 BABIP. If he held .315 though, it would be reasonable to expect a wRC+ in the 105 - 110 range (given his 118 last year), which is above average for a corner OF any way you slice it.

[Eminor3rd]

I should say, this is all cost prohibitive. If he came cheap, absolutely I would, and I'd prefer him over Danks. I doubt that's what Pittsburgh has in mind though.

 

Me too, in fact that's why I started the thread. I read a couple different places that the Pirates should be hoping for little more than salary relief. Don't know if that;s true or not, but if it is, I'm all for it. I think he's better than both Viciedo and De Aza today and over the next several seasons.

[harfman77]

Yeah, that's what my post just said: that he wouldn't sustain a .340 BABIP. If he held .315 though, it would be reasonable to expect a wRC+ in the 105 - 110 range (given his 118 last year), which is above average for a corner OF any way you slice it.

 

Or you could expect it to be in 80-90 range as he put up in 2012. Tabata has Podsednik power without strong defense or plus speed on the base paths as his SBs have declined dramatically. This is similar to the Rangel Ravelo situation, the guy can hit but does not have the defensive profile to fit in a position that his bat will play. Hes a one tool player that the Pirates have been trying to dump for a while and keep acquiring players like Byrd and Snider to try and get him out of the lineup.

 

The median wRC+ for eligible RF's last season was 122. The median for eligible LF's was 112. So no, 105-110 is not above average for a corner OF anyway you slice it.

[Eminor3rd]

Or you could expect it to be in 80-90 range as he put up in 2012. Tabata has Podsednik power without strong defense or plus speed on the base paths as his SBs have declined dramatically. This is similar to the Rangel Ravelo situation, the guy can hit but does not have the defensive profile to fit in a position that his bat will play. Hes a one tool player that the Pirates have been trying to dump for a while and keep acquiring players like Byrd and Snider to try and get him out of the lineup.

 

The median wRC+ for eligible RF's last season was 122. The median for eligible LF's was 112. So no, 105-110 is not above average for a corner OF anyway you slice it.

 

What? Median? Why would you use median? Especially to refute my claim of "above average?"

 

And what are you defining as "eligible"? Number 125 of the 250 OFs Fangraphs is showing is Ben Revere at 92 wRC+. Filtering out anything under 50 PA gives me Gerardo Parra at 96.

 

Major League avg. wRC+ by position, 2013: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

OF: 102

RF: 105

CF: 99

LF: 99

 

Yeah, guys look bad if you predict that they will repeat their worst season. No idea why we'd expect that though, given that he's coming off his best season. My guess of 105-110 factors regression. Even his career number is 103, which is, in fact, above average any way you slice it.

[Dick Allen]

Bottom line is this guy isn't a difference maker. Pass. The White Sox need to aim higher.

[Chicago White Sox]

Bottom line is this guy isn't a difference maker. Pass. The White Sox need to aim higher.

100% agree on this. At some point in the very near future, we'll need to add a left-handed impact bat that can replace Dunn in the lineup if we're serious about competing. IMO, that player is likely to be an OF regardless of the specific position. Why add Tabata when we already have three young OFs at the major league level, two of whom are thought of highly within the organization? Don't get me wrong, Tabata is a safer player than Viciedo right now, but I'd much rather roll the dice on Dayan in 2014 given that competing is a long-shot. We need to develop/acquire several impact bats before we can become serious contendors and I don't see how trading for Tabata helps us achieve that goal.

[harfman77]

What? Median? Why would you use median? Especially to refute my claim of "above average?"

 

And what are you defining as "eligible"? Number 125 of the 250 OFs Fangraphs is showing is Ben Revere at 92 wRC+. Filtering out anything under 50 PA gives me Gerardo Parra at 96.

 

Major League avg. wRC+ by position, 2013: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

OF: 102

RF: 105

CF: 99

LF: 99

 

Yeah, guys look bad if you predict that they will repeat their worst season. No idea why we'd expect that though, given that he's coming off his best season. My guess of 105-110 factors regression. Even his career number is 103, which is, in fact, above average any way you slice it.

 

 

I used median because I am too lazy to add them all together to determine what the average is, but the median should act as the divining point between a league average player and and above average player. I should have said qualified players instead of eligible, as there were 16 qualified LF's last season and Alfonso Soriano was eighth with a wRC+ of 112. There were 23 qualified RF's and Shane Victorino was 12th with wRC+ of 119.

[Eminor3rd]

I used median because I am too lazy to add them all together to determine what the average is, but the median should act as the divining point between a league average player and and above average player. I should have said qualified players instead of eligible, as there were 16 qualified LF's last season and Alfonso Soriano was eighth with a wRC+ of 112. There were 23 qualified RF's and Shane Victorino was 12th with wRC+ of 119.

 

Why? I don't understand why you would use the median of the top 16 LFs as the point where a guy is valuable or not. You're just saying "he's not a top 8 LFer."

Edited March 20, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[witesoxfan]

The average splits in LF last year was .259/.323/.412/.735. As an example, De Aza was at .264/.323/.405/.728, so he's almost a perfect example of it. His wRC+ was 97, but that's weighted down because of USCF. It's safe to assume that's your average production out of left field.

 

Tabata was better than that and can certainly still improve considering he's only 25. I think he's certainly a guy whose offensive production will be dependent upon his average, but I don't see splits of .280/.340/.410 as unlikely or unreasonable moving forward especially considering he was even better than that last year, and that's an extremely valuable player in the game today.

 

Yes, I'd prefer elite type talent, but you have to have the pieces to acquire that. Come the 2014-15 offseason, with Tabata coming off a good season, you then have an additional piece that you can trade as well.

 

Like I said, the price has to be right, and I have my doubts about that, but I have no problem bringing him in if it is.

[Eminor3rd]

The average splits in LF last year was .259/.323/.412/.735. As an example, De Aza was at .264/.323/.405/.728, so he's almost a perfect example of it. His wRC+ was 97, but that's weighted down because of USCF. It's safe to assume that's your average production out of left field.

 

Tabata was better than that and can certainly still improve considering he's only 25. I think he's certainly a guy whose offensive production will be dependent upon his average, but I don't see splits of .280/.340/.410 as unlikely or unreasonable moving forward especially considering he was even better than that last year, and that's an extremely valuable player in the game today.

 

Yes, I'd prefer elite type talent, but you have to have the pieces to acquire that. Come the 2014-15 offseason, with Tabata coming off a good season, you then have an additional piece that you can trade as well.

 

Like I said, the price has to be right, and I have my doubts about that, but I have no problem bringing him in if it is.

 

Just FYI -- wRC+ is park-adjusted. Woo! What a great stat.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/