Nieto makes 25 man roster

[ILMOU]

Theoretically, we could acquire Grandal in trade and sign Kendrys to be our DH next year. Begin 2015 with six Cubans, five in the starting lineup. Crazy.

 

[caulfield12]

Because all former football players flame out in the Sox organization, lol.

 

I think 25% of it is having another young Cuban on the bench...and the fact that there's nothing to lose, maybe they simply wanted Flowers to know "he's the guy" until he isn't. If he's looking over his shoulder at Phegley's AAA stats again, then he's not going to make it.

 

Or if he keeps suffering these lingering injuries because of his large size, then you can't have Nieto starting more than once every seven to ten days and you simply don't have the luxury with Konerko on the roster of carrying 3 catchers, either, since there are 3 1B/DH's...at least until Dunn's gone.

[SCCWS]

Theoretically, we could acquire Grandal in trade and sign Kendrys to be our DH next year. Begin 2015 with six Cubans, five in the starting lineup. Crazy.

 

OR JR is getting ready to sell the team to a Cuban owner and they become the Havana Bananas

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I think it helps that Nieto hits left-handed as well.

That and keeping him away from Jizzo are the keys.

[harfman77]

OR JR is getting ready to sell the team to a Cuban owner and they become the Havana Bananas

 

Yes, Mark Cuban.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Nieto with only 22 PA's this spring, less than any position player going north.

[southsider2k5]

Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN 12m

 

Robin Ventura also says Adrian Nieto has earned the job even though there's still a little time left in camp. #WhiteSox

[NorthSideSox72]

So my post earlier inspired me to write a piece for FutureSox. It's up now for your perusal.

 

The article doesn't go in-depth on roster dynamics, Rule V considerations, or org philosophy. Just a nearly-pure comparison piece, at Smith vs Nieto.

 

For my money, they are pretty darn similar, and I think in a vacuum, Smith is probably more ready than Nieto is. Just my opinion. What is lacking is better information on how they are both doing with handling a pitching staff.

 

[Vance Law]

I just want to point this out, something to think about...

 

Adrian Nieto last year, age 23, 6th MiLB year, High A: .282/.371/.446, 11 HR, 18.3% K/PA

Kevan Smith last year, age 24, 3rd MiLB year, High A: .286/.370/.484, 12 HR, 14.9% K/PA

 

Offensively, I am not convinced Nieto is any better than Smith at this point. In fact I'm fairly sure I'd take Smith's bat over Nieto.

 

Defensively, Smith was considered raw, but also has improved and there are positive reports about his pitcher handling. His CS% in 2012 (2013 I can't find) was 33%, and he had 14 PB in 92 games. Nieto is considered better defensively overall, and the pitchers seem to like him in camp (which is big), but.... His CS% in 2012 (I can't find 2013 data) was 32%. He had 14 PB in 85 games.

 

Numbers aren't the full story of course, especially with catchers. But looking at the body of work, I am not sure Nieto is any better as a total package than Kevan Smith would be. Similar hit and OBP results, Smith more power, Smith better contact rate, similar CS% numbers, and defensively I think Nieto may be at best only slightly better. And Nieto has had 3 more years to develop.

 

Why are people convinced Nieto is ready for the majors and Smith isn't?

 

"Ready" is a relative term. Nieto is in the majors because it's the only way we could steal him from the Nats and we're a rebuilding team so it doesn't matter what actually happens in the season. I will bet, though, that Nieto puts up a better OBP than Phegley's .223 last year. There were like 7 or 8 pitchers who were better hitters than Phegley last year.

[NorthSideSox72]

"Ready" is a relative term. Nieto is in the majors because it's the only way we could steal him from the Nats and we're a rebuilding team so it doesn't matter what actually happens in the season. I will bet, though, that Nieto puts up a better OBP than Phegley's .223 last year. There were like 7 or 8 pitchers who were better hitters than Phegley last year.

Sure, we all know the reason he's there is primarily the Rule V thing. I said that in the article too. But that point has been beaten into submission, so I wanted to look at the two players as compared in a vacuum, just to make an illustration.

 

Also yeah, hard for anyone not to do better than what was there last year. But Phegley may have beaten that this year too, and Gimenez probably would. My biggest concern though, is this reversed development curve idea the Sox are trying for with Nieto has a high likelihood of backfiring in terms of his development. If they think he's a real potential future starter, that is.

 

[ptatc]

Sure, we all know the reason he's there is primarily the Rule V thing. I said that in the article too. But that point has been beaten into submission, so I wanted to look at the two players as compared in a vacuum, just to make an illustration.

 

Also yeah, hard for anyone not to do better than what was there last year. But Phegley may have beaten that this year too, and Gimenez probably would. My biggest concern though, is this reversed development curve idea the Sox are trying for with Nieto has a high likelihood of backfiring in terms of his development. If they think he's a real potential future starter, that is.

I think there is a maturity factor as well. It make just be blowing smoke up the fans a$% but for this to work he has to be very poised. There is a personality besides the numbers that must be present. It sounds like the defense is there already. The Sox must be confident the flowers is healthy and Nieto will only play once a week or so.

[NorthSideSox72]

I think there is a maturity factor as well. It make just be blowing smoke up the fans a$% but for this to work he has to be very poised. There is a personality besides the numbers that must be present. It sounds like the defense is there already. The Sox must be confident the flowers is healthy and Nieto will only play once a week or so.

Intangibles are key for any player, but catchers particularly. I've met and spoken with Kevan, but not Adrian. I think Kevan Smith has "it" as far as the personality goes - but I haven't seen him working with the pitchers.

 

[ptatc]

Intangibles are key for any player, but catchers particularly. I've met and spoken with Kevan, but not Adrian. I think Kevan Smith has "it" as far as the personality goes - but I haven't seen him working with the pitchers.

Would Kevan have the poise to come to the MLB and work through failure? Does he already have the defensive ability to be in the MLB?

I don't know either one so those are serious questions. The Sox must be confident that Nieto can handle it at least defensively to be able to stick at the MLB level. They will shelter his hitting if flowers can play most of the time.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Sure, we all know the reason he's there is primarily the Rule V thing. I said that in the article too. But that point has been beaten into submission, so I wanted to look at the two players as compared in a vacuum, just to make an illustration.

 

Also yeah, hard for anyone not to do better than what was there last year. But Phegley may have beaten that this year too, and Gimenez probably would. My biggest concern though, is this reversed development curve idea the Sox are trying for with Nieto has a high likelihood of backfiring in terms of his development. If they think he's a real potential future starter, that is.

I don't think you ever mentioned that besides the Rule V thing is the fact Phegley and Smith are righties and the Sox think Nieto is a better lefthanded hitter than righthanded. If all else is equal (besides the Rule V ) the fact we lack lefthanders counts for something.

[NorthSideSox72]

Would Kevan have the poise to come to the MLB and work through failure? Does he already have the defensive ability to be in the MLB?

I don't know either one so those are serious questions. The Sox must be confident that Nieto can handle it at least defensively to be able to stick at the MLB level. They will shelter his hitting if flowers can play most of the time.

It's really hard to say with two guys that haven't played above A ball. The Sox obviously think Nieto has that poise, or they wouldn't be doing this, even with him as a backup. I personally think Smith has it too, but I don't see him work with the pitchers every day. In terms of in-game defense, everything I see tells me they are probably on about the same footing. But again, I don't see them every day in camp.

 

Hitting-wise I think Smith is more ready than Nieto, but I also think neither one is really ready yet.

 

[Balta1701]

Sure, we all know the reason he's there is primarily the Rule V thing. I said that in the article too. But that point has been beaten into submission, so I wanted to look at the two players as compared in a vacuum, just to make an illustration.

 

Also yeah, hard for anyone not to do better than what was there last year. But Phegley may have beaten that this year too, and Gimenez probably would. My biggest concern though, is this reversed development curve idea the Sox are trying for with Nieto has a high likelihood of backfiring in terms of his development. If they think he's a real potential future starter, that is.

The reality is that we don't care about "screwing up Neito's development" unless we get to keep him.

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't think you ever mentioned that besides the Rule V thing is the fact Phegley and Smith are righties and the Sox think Nieto is a better lefthanded hitter than righthanded. If all else is equal (besides the Rule V ) the fact we lack lefthanders counts for something.

Sort of. If you are looking at 2014 purely, then yeah, he complements Flowers better since he can hit left-handed. Wasn't really looking at it purely short-term though. My view is, they are really pretty similar prospects, so if you think they both have a chance to start in the future, your focus should be on development and overall value.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The reality is that we don't care about "screwing up Neito's development" unless we get to keep him.

Interesting circular logic.

 

If we assume that the ideal route - keeping him in our minors - is out of the picture... then the alternatives aren't pretty either way.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Interesting circular logic.

 

If we assume that the ideal route - keeping him in our minors - is out of the picture... then the alternatives aren't pretty either way.

Given the 2 possibilities...screwing him up but keeping him in our system, and not having him in our system at all...1 of those options has a nonzero chance of him contributing long term to the white sox, while the other does not.

[NorthSideSox72]

Given the 2 possibilities...screwing him up but keeping him in our system, and not having him in our system at all...1 of those options has a nonzero chance of him contributing long term to the white sox, while the other does not.

Yes, which is why they kept him.

 

I'm not arguing that, with him in camp, this wasn't the best way to keep him. I just have doubts about his readiness, and about his future after this year. And I found it interesting how much interest he's getting, while a very similar prospect isn't mentioned. That was all I was really going for.

 

[southsider2k5]

Yes, which is why they kept him.

 

I'm not arguing that, with him in camp, this wasn't the best way to keep him. I just have doubts about his readiness, and about his future after this year. And I found it interesting how much interest he's getting, while a very similar prospect isn't mentioned. That was all I was really going for.

 

If Nieto had been in the Sox organization all along, he wouldn't be in the majors. That is why the comp doesn't work. I get the numerical similarities and all, but the situations can't really be compared because Nieto's situation is unique.

[Balta1701]

If Nieto had been in the Sox organization all along, he wouldn't be in the majors. That is why the comp doesn't work. I get the numerical similarities and all, but the situations can't really be compared because Nieto's situation is unique.

If the White Sox went into this season thinking they cared about W's and L's, they also would not be doing this.

[NorthSideSox72]

If Nieto had been in the Sox organization all along, he wouldn't be in the majors. That is why the comp doesn't work. I get the numerical similarities and all, but the situations can't really be compared because Nieto's situation is unique.

It's actually a very strong comp in terms of their prospects for the future. The Rule V aspect is the wildcard. People can debate that part all day, but the key thing here isn't that Smith should have had the job - he shouldn't. It is that people's expectations of Nieto should be tempered, and Smith is a good description of why. Further, while Nieto may be with the team this year, that doesn't mean he's likely to be a starting C with the club in 2015. I think his chances at that are only as likely as Smith's. That's the long-term view, for me.

 

[GreenSox]

Yes, which is why they kept him.

 

I'm not arguing that, with him in camp, this wasn't the best way to keep him. I just have doubts about his readiness, and about his future after this year. And I found it interesting how much interest he's getting, while a very similar prospect isn't mentioned. That was all I was really going for.

Why should Smith be mentioned though? We all know that Nieto wouldn't be on the ML club if he didn't have to be. I've probably been the most bullish poster on this site all along re Nieto, but I don't think he's ready. It's just worth the risk. We can send him to AA or AAA next year. Yes, his development could get stunted - but Nieto's up for it, under advice of his agent, so I'm not worried about the human aspect of it. And from the Sox perspective, if he gets stunted, nothing lost.

I agree with your point that while the bar is very low, it's also likely that Phegley or the other guy will exceed that bar as well.

 

One other factor to consider....this substantially increases our leverage for a trade. Rizzo wasn't happy losing him (reading between the lines), he'd probably demand a real prospect in return; Rizzo is renown for being difficult as it is. Hahn basically said as much the other day. At this point, we've shown that we're willing to ride Nieto on the ML roster, which should decrease Rizzo's demands in a trade.

Edited March 25, 2014 by GreenSox

[southsider2k5]

It's actually a very strong comp in terms of their prospects for the future. The Rule V aspect is the wildcard. People can debate that part all day, but the key thing here isn't that Smith should have had the job - he shouldn't. It is that people's expectations of Nieto should be tempered, and Smith is a good description of why. Further, while Nieto may be with the team this year, that doesn't mean he's likely to be a starting C with the club in 2015. I think his chances at that are only as likely as Smith's. That's the long-term view, for me.

 

I really can't take two guys A Ball numbers and use them to define expectations down the road. I think everyone involved here has said he probably won't be that good this year, and it could be years, if ever, before he is any good.

 

The reality is, if he does stick out the team for this season, by very definition his chances of being on the team in 2015 are way higher than Kevan Smith, or any other catcher in the minor leagues, no matter what their A ball numbers looked like. Those numbers can be a useful too, but they sure as heck aren't the be all, end all. I remember making that mistake in comparing Jeff Bajenaru's AAA numbers to some guy in AA named Bobby Jenks, because they were favorable to Bajenaru.