Nieto makes 25 man roster

[NorthSideSox72]

Why should Smith be mentioned though? We all know that Nieto wouldn't be on the ML club if he didn't have to be. I've probably been the most bullish poster on this site all along re Nieto, but I don't think he's ready. It's just worth the risk. We can send him to AA or AAA next year. Yes, his development could get stunted - but Nieto's up for it, under advice of his agent, so I'm not worried about the human aspect of it. And from the Sox perspective, if he gets stunted, nothing lost.

 

One other factor to consider....this substantially increases our leverage for a trade. Rizzo wasn't happy losing him (reading between the lines), he'd probably demand a real prospect in return; Rizzo is renown for being difficult as it is. Hahn basically said as much the other day. At this point, we've shown that we're willing to ride Nieto on the ML roster, which should decrease Rizzo's demands in a trade.

Smith is mentioned for the reasons I've stated, and that people seem to ignore - in terms of their prospect profile, their performance per level, and their prospects of being a future piece with the Sox are very similar.

 

As for a trade, if Nieto goes to Chicago for Opening Day, there is no longer a trade happening. It means, first, as you said, Rizzo is probably being a jerk about it so the demands are too high. Second, if the Sox call Rizzo's bluff and keep him for April at least, then they're going to ride him out for a while. If he is terrible for a few months, unless the team is in contention and really needs the upgrade at backup C, they might as well ride him the rest of the year. Basically, if a trade isn't happening by 3/31, then it isn't happening. So the leverage aspect is irrelevant at that point.

 

Of course, something people aren't saying here... it is still possible a trade occurs before 3/31. There could be a lot of posturing, and Rizzo may call Hahn Friday (realizing Hahn is willing to call the bluff), and makes a last-ditch offer so that he gets SOMETHING for Nieto.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I really can't take two guys A Ball numbers and use them to define expectations down the road. I think everyone involved here has said he probably won't be that good this year, and it could be years, if ever, before he is any good.

 

The reality is, if he does stick out the team for this season, by very definition his chances of being on the team in 2015 are way higher than Kevan Smith, or any other catcher in the minor leagues, no matter what their A ball numbers looked like. Those numbers can be a useful too, but they sure as heck aren't the be all, end all. I remember making that mistake in comparing Jeff Bajenaru's AAA numbers to some guy in AA named Bobby Jenks, because they were favorable to Bajenaru.

Well first, you can certainly take some evaluation from multiple years of two players in A and A+, when they are at the same position and a similar age. Especially if you look at the right numbers. You can't just throw out those numbers, they do mean something.

 

Baj and Jenks had very different paths through the minors.

 

You think sticking with the team in 2014 means he's got an inside ticket - and there is some truth to that. But it isn't as cut and dried as people think. Smith gets to develop and move up, while Nieto is likely to be overwhelmed. You want a comparison, look at Jesus Flores, who took this route and never put it together to be a starter. I think a year from now, barring injuries or trades obviously, that Smith is just as likely to have a shot at the team as Nieto does. Smith looks like a better prospect to me overall, if only by a little, which is offset by Nieto's early exposure to the majors. And after 10/1 of this year, the Sox don't have to keep Nieto on the active roster any more than they do Smith.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I want to point this out too - Smith has only 3, or really 2.5, years in the minors to get to what he did last year. Nieto took 6, or really more like 4.5 or 5 with missed time, to get to that level and put up slightly lesser numbers offensively and defensively. Challenging a player level-wise, like they are doing with Nieto in a big way, requires the ability to adapt quickly. Smith has shown better performance at doing that than Nieto has - so far.

 

[GreenSox]

Smith is mentioned for the reasons I've stated, and that people seem to ignore - in terms of their prospect profile, their performance per level, and their prospects of being a future piece with the Sox are very similar.

 

As for a trade, if Nieto goes to Chicago for Opening Day, there is no longer a trade happening. It means, first, as you said, Rizzo is probably being a jerk about it so the demands are too high. Second, if the Sox call Rizzo's bluff and keep him for April at least, then they're going to ride him out for a while. If he is terrible for a few months, unless the team is in contention and really needs the upgrade at backup C, they might as well ride him the rest of the year. Basically, if a trade isn't happening by 3/31, then it isn't happening. So the leverage aspect is irrelevant at that point.

 

Of course, something people aren't saying here... it is still possible a trade occurs before 3/31. There could be a lot of posturing, and Rizzo may call Hahn Friday (realizing Hahn is willing to call the bluff), and makes a last-ditch offer so that he gets SOMETHING for Nieto.

Re Smith, so Nieto and Smith are about equal; fine, now we have 2 prospects at a similar development point. No harm in that. We all know that the odds are that a AA C prospect won't make it, so we doubled our chances.

I'm don't see why a trade couldn't happen in April or May. We're willing to leave him on the ML roster, but probably would prefer not to; if Rizzo wants something, anything, he's got to come to the table. He and Hahn could play chicken for a little while; or not. We'll see.

Anyway, it's another interesting aspect to what should be a very interesting season.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Re Smith, so Nieto and Smith are about equal; fine, now we have 2 prospects at a similar development point. No harm in that. We all know that the odds are that a AA C prospect won't make it, so we doubled our chances.

I'm don't see why a trade couldn't happen in April or May. We're willing to leave him on the ML roster, but probably would prefer not to; if Rizzo wants something, anything, he's got to come to the table. He and Hahn could play chicken for a little while; or not. We'll see.

Anyway, it's another interesting aspect to what should be a very interesting season.

Yeah, now that I re-think it, I suppose an early season trade is possible, though I think it is unlikely. And don't get me wrong, I'd love to have Nieto stay in the system.

 

[southsider2k5]

Well first, you can certainly take some evaluation from multiple years of two players in A and A+, when they are at the same position and a similar age. Especially if you look at the right numbers. You can't just throw out those numbers, they do mean something.

 

Baj and Jenks had very different paths through the minors.

 

You think sticking with the team in 2014 means he's got an inside ticket - and there is some truth to that. But it isn't as cut and dried as people think. Smith gets to develop and move up, while Nieto is likely to be overwhelmed. You want a comparison, look at Jesus Flores, who took this route and never put it together to be a starter. I think a year from now, barring injuries or trades obviously, that Smith is just as likely to have a shot at the team as Nieto does. Smith looks like a better prospect to me overall, if only by a little, which is offset by Nieto's early exposure to the majors. And after 10/1 of this year, the Sox don't have to keep Nieto on the active roster any more than they do Smith.

 

Except Nieto has jumped to the front of the line. Smith doesn't have that get out of jail free card, no matter what their numbers look like.

 

And at the end of the day Nieto and Smith now have very different paths through the minors.

[ScottyDo]

Question: when you trade for a guy you got through the Rule V draft, what are you then allowed to do with them? How long are they allowed to be in the new team's minors before becoming eligible for the Rule V draft again?

[witesoxfan]

Question: when you trade for a guy you got through the Rule V draft, what are you then allowed to do with them? How long are they allowed to be in the new team's minors before becoming eligible for the Rule V draft again?

 

If you trade for a guy that was a Rule V draft, he is yours just as if it were any other ordinary trade. They did this with Jason Grilli about 10 years ago.

 

In the case of Angel Sanchez last year, the Sox actually offered him back to the Angels, and they didn't want to pay the $25,000 to bring him back, so the Sox got to keep him for free.

[harfman77]

I want to point this out too - Smith has only 3, or really 2.5, years in the minors to get to what he did last year. Nieto took 6, or really more like 4.5 or 5 with missed time, to get to that level and put up slightly lesser numbers offensively and defensively. Challenging a player level-wise, like they are doing with Nieto in a big way, requires the ability to adapt quickly. Smith has shown better performance at doing that than Nieto has - so far.

 

But thats part of the difference as well. Smith is a year older and has had a consistent development timeline. Nieto's development was interrupted by a variety of hiccups that slowed his development. Nieto played his first full season last season after being drafted in 2008, Smith was a college player and has two full seasons since being drafted. Odds are neither are going to make it given their profiles.

[NorthSideSox72]

Except Nieto has jumped to the front of the line. Smith doesn't have that get out of jail free card, no matter what their numbers look like.

 

And at the end of the day Nieto and Smith now have very different paths through the minors.

If you want to use analogies here, the better one is that Nieto is on probation, with hard conditions. And he'll be out of probation, if he makes it, around the same time Smith gets out of "jail".

 

Flores got the same deal, and never made it work as a starter. Flores and Nieto aren't the same either, but the Rule V aspect and going straight from A+ are the same. Flores was a backup part-time in the majors, and spent some time in the minors, over a 5 year period and never made it stick. Meanwhile, other prospects passed him up as time went on, which could just as easily happen here. This opportunity is not a guaranteed ticket.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

But thats part of the difference as well. Smith is a year older and has had a consistent development timeline. Nieto's development was interrupted by a variety of hiccups that slowed his development. Nieto played his first full season last season after being drafted in 2008, Smith was a college player and has two full seasons since being drafted. Odds are neither are going to make it given their profiles.

Sure - Nieto has 100 more games under his belt, and more time beyond that in camps even when he wasn't on a roster. He's had more development time and made less ground.

 

I agree by the way, neither are likely to be major league starters.

 

[witesoxfan]

If you want to use analogies here, the better one is that Nieto is on probation, with hard conditions. And he'll be out of probation, if he makes it, around the same time Smith gets out of "jail".

 

Flores got the same deal, and never made it work as a starter. Flores and Nieto aren't the same either, but the Rule V aspect and going straight from A+ are the same. Flores was a backup part-time in the majors, and spent some time in the minors, over a 5 year period and never made it stick. Meanwhile, other prospects passed him up as time went on, which could just as easily happen here. This opportunity is not a guaranteed ticket.

 

Didn't Flores suffer a pretty serious injury? He was looking like a pretty solid player, and then the injury came and it was like his career was over.

[GreenSox]

But thats part of the difference as well. Smith is a year older and has had a consistent development timeline. Nieto's development was interrupted by a variety of hiccups that slowed his development. Nieto played his first full season last season after being drafted in 2008, Smith was a college player and has two full seasons since being drafted. Odds are neither are going to make it given their profiles.

So maybe you're saying that because he's likely not going to make it, it isn't worth the risk of essentially being woefully overmatched at C when Flowers doesn't play, esp. if we happen to be in this thing?

 

Could be. Heck I think Mitchell still has a good shot, so I can be a little sunny on prospects.

 

[southsider2k5]

If you trade for a guy that was a Rule V draft, he is yours just as if it were any other ordinary trade. They did this with Jason Grilli about 10 years ago.

 

In the case of Angel Sanchez last year, the Sox actually offered him back to the Angels, and they didn't want to pay the $25,000 to bring him back, so the Sox got to keep him for free.

 

Depends on what you mean by "trade". If you trade the player to a team that isn't the team you drafted him from, they inherit the roster requirements for that players.

 

A team can make a deal for the rights to the Rule 5 player from the team they drafted him from, then all roster restrictions are dropped, because he is now "your" player.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Basically Nieto was in the right place at the right time .That's pretty much all the analysis it needs. What it means to his future is at least he should qualify for the MLB pension and health benefits a lot sooner than he might've thought.

[ptatc]

I want to point this out too - Smith has only 3, or really 2.5, years in the minors to get to what he did last year. Nieto took 6, or really more like 4.5 or 5 with missed time, to get to that level and put up slightly lesser numbers offensively and defensively. Challenging a player level-wise, like they are doing with Nieto in a big way, requires the ability to adapt quickly. Smith has shown better performance at doing that than Nieto has - so far.

All of this may be true. However, you are over looking one major factor: The White Sox organization evaluations. If the Sox thought the two were equal they would have brought up Smith or at least not taken Nieto in the Rule V. There must be something the Sox saw that convinced them that at this point they do not have anyone as ready as Nieto is. It may just be the defensive abilities right now and that Smith may be the better overall player later. However, as of this point the Sox believe that Nieto has something that Smith doesn't.

 

Again, I'm not saying I agree or disagree as I don't know the situation well but at least the Sox believe Nieto has something that the catchers in our organization currently do not.

[NorthSideSox72]

All of this may be true. However, you are over looking one major factor: The White Sox organization evaluations. If the Sox thought the two were equal they would have brought up Smith or at least not taken Nieto in the Rule V. There must be something the Sox saw that convinced them that at this point they do not have anyone as ready as Nieto is. It may just be the defensive abilities right now and that Smith may be the better overall player later. However, as of this point the Sox believe that Nieto has something that Smith doesn't.

 

Again, I'm not saying I agree or disagree as I don't know the situation well but at least the Sox believe Nieto has something that the catchers in our organization currently do not.

Not so much overlooking that, in fact it is acknowledged multiple times in the article and my posts. I'm not there in "the room" to know that, nor is anyone else.

 

However, I don't necessarily think the reason they keep him is because they saw something signifcantly more than Smith. Think of it this way - they may have in fact seen Smith part 2. Now, if you have a dire catching situation in MLB and a farm system nearly empty of catching prospects, and you have a chance to get another guy at a similar level to your currently best catching prospect... don't you think about making a move for that guy? Point is, they may not see him as better than Smith. They at least see him better than most catchers in the system though, and want to load up on possibilities. Just that in this case, because of the way they got him (Rule V), you have to handle his path differently.

 

[harfman77]

Sure - Nieto has 100 more games under his belt, and more time beyond that in camps even when he wasn't on a roster. He's had more development time and made less ground.

 

I agree by the way, neither are likely to be major league starters.

 

Comparing games is an apples and oranges comparison though since Smith was drafted out of college and Nieto out of high school. Smith played 142 games in college in the same period of time, so he really has more game experience under his belt. You can say that his development was curbed by playing football, but he hasn't had the track record of interruptions that Nieto has. In six years of pro ball, Nieto has one full season played, Smith already has two in his first two years.

[NorthSideSox72]

Comparing games is an apples and oranges comparison though since Smith was drafted out of college and Nieto out of high school. Smith played 142 games in college in the same period of time, so he really has more game experience under his belt. You can say that his development was curbed by playing football, but he hasn't had the track record of interruptions that Nieto has. In six years of pro ball, Nieto has one full season played, Smith already has two in his first two years.

I think you are stretching here. Because Nieto's seasons have been shortened, they don't count? He's played 66% more pro games than Smith, and has been around pro clubhouses and coaches for twice as many years. And Nieto isn't a 19 year old anymore, he's only a year younger than Smith.

 

If we put Nieto's rookie, SS and first A ball seasons as a parallel to Smith's college time (which still gives Nieto an advantage, since it was pro ball with pro coaches and regimens, and no football), and just look at their 2011-2013 together (when they were both in pro ball and a year apart in age), Smith has simply performed better those three years - in an almost identical number of games (246 for Nieto, 265 for Smith).

[witesoxfan]

I wanted to bring this up in here because of the discussion that has taken place - I asked Dan a question about the character of players and how it factors in to their evaluation of a player and if they quantify it on scouting reports, and after going through how important it is and the process they go through, he mentioned Adrien Nieto by name and mentioned that Marco had spoken to teammates, scouts, instructors, and coaches regarding his character and they were impressed with him the entire way. In fact, from what Dan implied, it seemed they had him in mind the entire time for their Rule V pick.

[Jake]

There has been a lot of talk about how enthusiastic Nieto has been with working with the pitching staff. Very inquisitive, busts his balls learning each pitcher's strategy, etc.

[southsider2k5]

Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN 8m

 

Rule 5 catcher Adrian Nieto could get a start tomorrow for the #WhiteSox, per Robin Ventura.