Avisail Garcia's Flaws

[Feeky Magee]

Despite hitting .283 with decent power last year, Garcia managed to be worth minus WAR. The reason - horrible defence and refusal to take a walk. Per Fangraphs, he was worth -11.5 runs in just 72 games. He also walked in just 3.5% of his plate appearances, consistent with his minor league stats. He hits the ball hard into the ground a lot, which means his high BABIP is not necessarily something which will regress, but if he doesn't start hitting the ball in the air, he won't be able to harness his plus-power potential.

 

The obvious disclaimer is that he's 22 and that's an age where you'll typically see someone at High-A or AA. On the other hand, his weaknesses are not the typical ones which tend to get better with time, particularly his approach: there's a strong argument to be made that a batter's approach is what it is and no amount of playing experience or coaching changes that to any huge amount. Defence can improve with more reps but I would think instinctively that it should peak more towards the start of a player's career and tail away as he loses some speed and shape. Plus, he's pretty much stuck in RF, it's not like he can potentially be moved to an easier position.

 

We've heard the likes of the Hawk and Bo Jackson say he's the most impressive and talented of the young crew the White Sox have, but is there a chance that his flaws severely limit the surplus value the White Sox can get out of him?

 

I'm particularly interested to hear thoughts on his defence and whether it's something people see improving with more reps.

[GGajewski18]

If you're going to critique him. At least spell defense right.

 

He's 22 years old. This team is young and inexperienced. This season will be full of emotion just like Hawk said during the game today. Exciting and heartbreaking all year. This team will grow and the young players (hopefully) will grow as the season goes along. It was game 3 of 162 today...

[Feeky Magee]

If you're going to critique him. At least spell defense right.

 

He's 22 years old. This team is young and inexperienced. This season will be full of emotion just like Hawk said during the game today. Exciting and heartbreaking all year. This team will grow and the young players (hopefully) will grow as the season goes along. It was game 3 of 162 today...

Defence isn't the wrong spelling, it's a color/colour type of thing, I'm from Ireland.

 

And in case you didn't notice, every stat I quoted about Avi was from last season. I also noted his age.

[oldsox]

His defenSe will be fine; plus, he can hit. Fase it, he's the second best position player on the team.

[Balta1701]

Yes, there is a chance his flaws severely limit what the White Sox can get out of him.

 

However, he's a 22 year old playing big league ball. There are 22 year olds in A-ball right now who will be successful MLB players. He's raw in every facet of his game. His potential is virtually unlimited. He has ridiculous power potential plus speed. He simply is extremely raw.

 

There is a reason why I keep calling this a rebuilding year. Avisail Garcia should be expected to struggle. That was suggested by his performance last year as you say - even his high batting average was due to all the bloop singles he collected. He's exactly the kind of guy the White Sox should be giving playing time to in 2014. He will hurt this team this year. In 2015, if the Sox can develop him, he has a phenomenal level of ability. A team contending this year should not be giving time to players like him. A team rebuilding this year should be doing exactly that.

 

His defense is like his offense. It should be expected to be extremely raw. If he is coached well, he has the toolset to turn "oops" into "wow'. He could turn what is today poor defense into solid or even really good defense with playing time and coaching. With guys like him, the goal is not what they give us tomorrow, it's what they give us in 2015. It's all about development with him and several other guys in this org, including Eaton, Viciedo, Johnson, and probably Semien and others later in the year when they come up.

 

That's why this is a rebuilding year.

[Feeky Magee]

Yes, there is a chance his flaws severely limit what the White Sox can get out of him.

 

However, he's a 22 year old playing big league ball. There are 22 year olds in A-ball right now who will be successful MLB players. He's raw in every facet of his game. His potential is virtually unlimited. He has ridiculous power potential plus speed. He simply is extremely raw.

 

There is a reason why I keep calling this a rebuilding year. Avisail Garcia should be expected to struggle. That was suggested by his performance last year as you say - even his high batting average was due to all the bloop singles he collected. He's exactly the kind of guy the White Sox should be giving playing time to in 2014. He will hurt this team this year. In 2015, if the Sox can develop him, he has a phenomenal level of ability. A team contending this year should not be giving time to players like him. A team rebuilding this year should be doing exactly that.

 

His defense is like his offense. It should be expected to be extremely raw. If he is coached well, he has the toolset to turn "oops" into "wow'. He could turn what is today poor defense into solid or even really good defense with playing time and coaching. With guys like him, the goal is not what they give us tomorrow, it's what they give us in 2015. It's all about development with him and several other guys in this org, including Eaton, Viciedo, Johnson, and probably Semien and others later in the year when they come up.

 

That's why this is a rebuilding year.

Thanks, this is more what I was looking for.

 

Is there a history of guys who graded awfully on defence to start off with but turned into average or plus defenders with more coaching and reps? Do guys playing MLB way ahead of schedule tend to grade a lot poorer on defence than they will go onto do, simply because of lack of experience? Instinct would tell me that defensive performance would tend to be more stable regardless of age for the level than offensive (not to say it can't improve).

[Balta1701]

Thanks, this is more what I was looking for.

 

Is there a history of guys who graded awfully on defence to start off with but turned into average or plus defenders with more coaching and reps? Do guys playing MLB way ahead of schedule tend to grade a lot poorer on defence than they will go onto do, simply because of lack of experience? Instinct would tell me that defensive performance would tend to be more stable regardless of age for the level than offensive (not to say it can't improve).

I feel like that is entirely what you should expect, that guys who have skills will become gradually better defenders with time (and then after they hit 30 and their speed starts deteriorating their defense starts worsening). Someone else can tell me if I'm wrong.

 

My worry is that until proven otherwise, based on 2013 and how everyone got worse, I still have no confidence in the ability of this coaching staff to help people with defense.

[Wanne]

Despite hitting .283 with decent power last year, Garcia managed to be worth minus WAR. The reason - horrible defence and refusal to take a walk. Per Fangraphs, he was worth -11.5 runs in just 72 games. He also walked in just 3.5% of his plate appearances, consistent with his minor league stats. He hits the ball hard into the ground a lot, which means his high BABIP is not necessarily something which will regress, but if he doesn't start hitting the ball in the air, he won't be able to harness his plus-power potential.

 

The obvious disclaimer is that he's 22

 

That's all you need right there....period.

[Feeky Magee]

That's all you need right there....period.

Welllll not necessarily when you're talking about things like plate discipline, as far as I can make out that's something that usually is what it is, for the most part.

[Balta1701]

Welllll not necessarily when you're talking about things like plate discipline, as far as I can make out that's something that usually is what it is, for the most part.

My counterpoint to that remains Jose Reyes, who started off swinging as freely as Garcia or even worse and turned himself into a solidly patient hitter.

[Feeky Magee]

My counterpoint to that remains Jose Reyes, who started off swinging as freely as Garcia or even worse and turned himself into a solidly patient hitter.

Wouldn't that be the exception rather than the rule?

[RockRaines]

What are things that are easily fixable at that age vs what you said cannot be fixed?

[Balta1701]

Wouldn't that be the exception rather than the rule?

If one guy can become a vastly more patient hitter, that means its possible with coaching. Like I said with Viciedo, these guys don't need to walk 100 times to be successful, they just need to be paitient enough to control the strike zone.

[Feeky Magee]

If one guy can become a vastly more patient hitter, that means its possible with coaching. Like I said with Viciedo, these guys don't need to walk 100 times to be successful, they just need to be paitient enough to control the strike zone.

Right, I'm more interested in how likely it is to happen rather than if it's possible though.

 

What are things that are easily fixable at that age vs what you said cannot be fixed?

Well I'm thinking of things that aren't necessarily always there at a young age but can develop and be projected, like say a lack of power.

Edited April 4, 2014 by Feeky Magee

[RockRaines]

Right, I'm more interested in how likely it is to happen rather than if it's possible though.

 

 

Well I'm thinking of things that aren't necessarily always there at a young age but can develop and be projected, like say a lack of power.

His big weakness is pitch recognition, something that develops with age.

[caulfield12]

Thanks, this is more what I was looking for.

 

Is there a history of guys who graded awfully on defence to start off with but turned into average or plus defenders with more coaching and reps? Do guys playing MLB way ahead of schedule tend to grade a lot poorer on defence than they will go onto do, simply because of lack of experience? Instinct would tell me that defensive performance would tend to be more stable regardless of age for the level than offensive (not to say it can't improve).

 

Viciedo really improved defensively in 2012 and then regressed greatly last year.

 

Another example, Pods and Juan Pierre had periods where they were really good and then bad...but Pods was actually much better defensively his second time around, even though he was older.

 

Alex Rios was both great and abysmal with the White Sox during different stretches. Why this was, you have a million different theories out there.

Edited April 4, 2014 by caulfield12

[nickofypres]

Defence isn't the wrong spelling, it's a color/colour type of thing, I'm from Ireland.

 

And in case you didn't notice, every stat I quoted about Avi was from last season. I also noted his age.

 

I love it. I set my spell check for English UK. Except for homework, that is how I spell things too.

[Jake]

Don't know if it has been said, but the sample size that led to the conclusion that his defense was poor was woefully small. You need at least a full season of reps to even begin to get a valid sample size and you won't know the true value of the defender until you have multiple full seasons of data.

[iamshack]

I'll just say I don't have high hopes for him. I think he'll be a tantalizing cocktease for the next few years.

[sammy esposito]

Don't know if it has been said, but the sample size that led to the conclusion that his defense was poor was woefully small. You need at least a full season of reps to even begin to get a valid sample size and you won't know the true value of the defender until you have multiple full seasons of data.

If Avisail had options he should have been the one sent to triple A , We have a ready to play outfielder names Danks who can play outstanding defense and led our sox during spring training. Send Garcia down so he can learn the art of fielding and hitting and bring up Jordan Danks. It doesn't matter what you have invested in Garcia the best man is in Charlotte.

dy

[caulfield12]

If Avisail had options he should have been the one sent to triple A , We have a ready to play outfielder names Danks who can play outstanding defense and led our sox during spring training. Send Garcia down so he can learn the art of fielding and hitting and bring up Jordan Danks. It doesn't matter what you have invested in Garcia the best man is in Charlotte.

dy

 

Then you're setting back the time you can legitimately compete by another year if players like Garcia, Davidson and Semien spend the whole season in the minors...meaning 2015 is another "adjustment/rookie" season and you're in perennial waiting mode like the Cubs.

 

Maybe the offense starting out hot has everyone a BIT excited, but it was ONLY against Minnesota, in the final analysis.

 

As flavum has pointed out, the schedule for the next month plus is pretty brutal. It's expected they're going to be 5-10 games under .500 already and beginning to look as much towards 2015 as 2014, especially due to the fact that this bullpen is certainly not constructed to be in "win now" mode.

[greg775]

Then you're setting back the time you can legitimately compete by another year if players like Garcia, Davidson and Semien spend the whole season in the minors...meaning 2015 is another "adjustment/rookie" season and you're in perennial waiting mode like the Cubs.

 

Maybe the offense starting out hot has everyone a BIT excited, but it was ONLY against Minnesota, in the final analysis.

 

As flavum has pointed out, the schedule for the next month plus is pretty brutal. It's expected they're going to be 5-10 games under .500 already and beginning to look as much towards 2015 as 2014, especially due to the fact that this bullpen is certainly not constructed to be in "win now" mode.

 

Minnesota is a really really bad team. The schedule makers did us a favor for our opening series, that is for sure.

I fully expect to lose the next 3 while scoring very few runs in Kauffman. If KC somehow drops 2 of 3 they'll be calling for Yost's head this early.

[TaylorStSox]

Don't know if it has been said, but the sample size that led to the conclusion that his defense was poor was woefully small. You need at least a full season of reps to even begin to get a valid sample size and you won't know the true value of the defender until you have multiple full seasons of data.

That's crazy. You can tell a lot about an OF's potential based off his reads. His instincts are bad. He can develop into a good fielder because he's physically gifted, but will always be limited. As far as hitting, I'm more concerned with swing plane and his propensity to beat everything into the ground. Like everyone said, he's young, but it's still concerning.

[southsider2k5]

Soxtalk was all ready to meltdown and rebuild, until it came to actually dealing with the flaws and growth of young players.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Avi will be fine. 22 year old needs seasoning.