Semien

[The Ginger Kid]

Another cool Simien stat..."With 4.53 pitches seen per plate appearance, Semien is fifth in the AL in that category"

[TaylorStSox]

Except in a rebuilding situation, the idea is to put anyone who isn't in the teams plans into the best possible light to maximize their trade value. Gordo getting 200 ABs this year is literally flushing money and an asset away.

How is Beckham even remotely close to an "asset?" He hasn't had any real value in years.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Another cool Simien stat..."With 4.53 pitches seen per plate appearance, Semien is fifth in the AL in that category"

Here's more since we're throwing around small sample sizes.

 

In the last 7 games he's batting .344 .444 OBP .522 SLG. and .966 OPS

[caulfield12]

That makes him 5 for 34 (.147) against starting caliber pitching, and not great SP either based on the teams the Sox have played. Semien needs to go back down and get every day at bats, pushing him up to early will result in having the same conversation about him in three years that every one wants to have about Beckham.

 

Beckham pretty much mirrored his breakout rookie season last season, minus the power, which is not unexpected given a hamate injury. Selling low on him is akin to the Indians giving up Brandon Phillips for a RP. You need to let it play out and see what you really have not that he appears to have his approach in order. You can really blame his second and third seasons on him being rushed and not learning to make appropriate adjustments in the minors, and the majors is not a forgiving place to learn how to adapt your approach, especially with lift and pull as your hitting coach. If Beckham were on any other team, fans would want to pick him up to see if we could get him to turn it around. There is no reason not to take a flier on him this season and see where it gets you. If he regresses, hes non-tendered, if he puts up similar numbers to last season and the power comes back you have a top 5 second basemen.

 

Doubles power, that's one thing.

 

If he goes into one of those hot homer spells, he might put up a 12-15 homer season...but then his overall swing will fall apart and he'll end up with another 625-650ish OPS as he gets pull happy and starts trying to cheat on pitches.

[NorthSideSox72]

How is Beckham even remotely close to an "asset?" He hasn't had any real value in years.

No one is under the impression he's going to land an elite prospect. But him coming back and looking OK for a couple months will likely mean a team would give up something for him. If you don't do that, you release him and eat the rest of his salary, AND lose out on some sort of return. Some team will be desperate for a guy like him, a la the 2005 acquisition the White Sox made for an infielder. Or maybe even as a starter for a limited time. That has value.

 

Unless you think this team, right now, has a good chance at making the playoffs... it simply makes more sense to play Beckham now (when he's healthy) and let Semien continue his development with no harm to himself.

 

[southsider2k5]

No one is under the impression he's going to land an elite prospect. But him coming back and looking OK for a couple months will likely mean a team would give up something for him. If you don't do that, you release him and eat the rest of his salary, AND lose out on some sort of return. Some team will be desperate for a guy like him, a la the 2005 acquisition the White Sox made for an infielder. Or maybe even as a starter for a limited time. That has value.

 

Unless you think this team, right now, has a good chance at making the playoffs... it simply makes more sense to play Beckham now (when he's healthy) and let Semien continue his development with no harm to himself.

 

Exactly. Let us not forget, even secondary return can amount to something. The guy everyone is clamoring as closer was a C+ piece in a deal for Jason Frazor.

[TaylorStSox]

Exactly. Let us not forget, even secondary return can amount to something. The guy everyone is clamoring as closer was a C+ piece in a deal for Jason Frazor.

I'd be shocked if Beckham had as much value as Jason Frazor even if he puts up decent numbers, which he isn't capable of putting up. Semien's nothing like Beckham. Semien looks ready despite some early struggles. Beckham wasn't rushed. Let's stop pretending he was. He's just a bad hitter and there is little to no hope he figures it out 2500 AB's into a pretty awful career.

Edited April 14, 2014 by TaylorStSox

[caulfield12]

I'd be shocked if Beckham had as much value as Jason Frazor even if he puts up decent numbers, which he isn't capable of putting up. Semien's nothing like Beckham. Semien looks ready despite some early struggles. Beckham wasn't rushed. Let's stop pretending he was. He's just a bad hitter and there is little to no hope he figures it out 2500 AB's into a pretty awful career.

 

 

Or put it this way, if you had to choose from Dunn, Ramirez, DeAza, Viciedo and Beckham, which ones were the most likely to put up above average offensive seasons relative to their position in 2014, Gordon would be 4th or 5th, especially coming back from an oblique. I'd argue 5th, although others would go with DeAza or Dayan or Dunn at the back end.

[southsider2k5]

I'd be shocked if Beckham had as much value as Jason Frazor even if he puts up decent numbers, which he isn't capable of putting up. Semien's nothing like Beckham. Semien looks ready despite some early struggles. Beckham wasn't rushed. Let's stop pretending he was. He's just a bad hitter and there is little to no hope he figures it out 2500 AB's into a pretty awful career.

 

Frazor was a mediocre middle reliever with a one year contract at essentially full market value. Gordo still has one more arb year of control left before he can hit the free agent market.

 

As for other part, the guy had 259 minor league plate appearances, 196 of which were at AA or AAA. If that isn't the cover definition of "rushed" I don't know what is. He got about 1/2 of a season's worth of ABs in the minors. Total.

[TaylorStSox]

Frazor was a mediocre middle reliever with a one year contract at essentially full market value. Gordo still has one more arb year of control left before he can hit the free agent market.

 

As for other part, the guy had 259 minor league plate appearances, 196 of which were at AA or AAA. If that isn't the cover definition of "rushed" I don't know what is. He got about 1/2 of a season's worth of ABs in the minors. Total.

Nobody would give Beckham more than a 1 year contract right now. A good reliever is more valuable than a bad second baseman.

 

He wasn't rushed. He had success before he was exposed. He's had 4 years to adjust. He isn't physically capable. He has major flaws that are apparently unchangeable ie approach, recognition and a very flawed swing.

[Steve9347]

I'd rather the Sox move on from Beckham. He's drawing walks, playing solid defense, and his bat is starting to come around. I also strongly doubt he continues striking out at this current pace.

This x infinity.

[beautox]

What value? If he comes out and hits .300/.350/.400, are teams really going to be lining up trying to trade for him? I think his value basically is what it is. The most you could do is go from a C prospect to a C+ prospect.

Agreed he is a known quantity at the ripe old age of 27, he has some limited upside but he would need a full season of non-injured consistent playing time to re-establish and upgrade his trade value. The best case scenario the sox are looking at getting a few live arms.

[southsider2k5]

Nobody would give Beckham more than a 1 year contract right now. A good reliever is more valuable than a bad second baseman.

 

He wasn't rushed. He had success before he was exposed. He's had 4 years to adjust. He isn't physically capable. He has major flaws that are apparently unchangeable ie approach, recognition and a very flawed swing.

 

Jeff Keppinger got a three year contract from the White Sox. He had other two year offers on the table.

 

The numbers are really clear that Beckham got rushed, as are the results.

[TaylorStSox]

Jeff Keppinger got a three year contract from the White Sox. He had other two year offers on the table.

 

The numbers are really clear that Beckham got rushed, as are the results.

Keppinger was a way better baseball player. You guys are delusional.

[beautox]

That makes him 5 for 34 (.147) against starting caliber pitching, and not great SP either based on the teams the Sox have played. Semien needs to go back down and get every day at bats, pushing him up to early will result in having the same conversation about him in three years that every one wants to have about Beckham.

 

I strongly disagree with this, Marcus is ready to be tested and adjust to major league pitching, Having a different hitting coach and GM is a night and day difference from where beckham entered the sox.

 

 

Beckham pretty much mirrored his breakout rookie season last season, minus the power, which is not unexpected given a hamate injury. Selling low on him is akin to the Indians giving up Brandon Phillips for a RP.

 

This isn't even remotely close. Phillips was 24 with 462 ABs with the Indians before they decided to close the book on him. Gordon has had 2475 ABs with the sox and is 27 years old.

[southsider2k5]

Keppinger was a way better baseball player. You guys are delusional.

 

Their career OPS are .020 apart , and Beckham makes up for that with a clear advantage over Keppinger defensively. Throw out Keppinger's outlier season of 2012, and they are pretty much identical in OPS. Add to that Kepp has never played 140 games in one season.

[TaylorStSox]

Their career OPS are .020 apart , and Beckham makes up for that with a clear advantage over Keppinger defensively. Throw out Keppinger's outlier season of 2012, and they are pretty much identical in OPS. Add to that Kepp has never played 140 games in one season.

You're going to throw out Keppinger outlier season, but keep Beckham's? What the hell is happening to logic? Keppinger was also coming off a very good season. Beckham's not going to come close to Keppinger's 2012. None of this even matters.

 

Beckham has no value. Semien is a better ball player right now. Semien is younger, cheaper and part of the future. Play the kid. Beckham had more than enough chances.

[Vance Law]

No one is under the impression he's going to land an elite prospect. But him coming back and looking OK for a couple months will likely mean a team would give up something for him.

Exactly. And when and if (when), one of the 18 or 20 teams in June or July who still think they have a shot this year loses a middle infielder for the season, an experienced and playing-pretty-decently Beckham would be an appealing stopgap. s*** happens during the season. Teams develop needs they didn't anticipate. Carlos Beltran played 1st base for the Yankees the other night and we're not 2 weeks into the season. It will be nice for the Sox to have those players available when those needs arise.

 

All of this made possible because there is zero actual urgency for the Sox to get all of their future regulars playing NOW! instead of a few months from now. There is only soxtalk.com-thread-urgency.

Edited April 14, 2014 by Vance Law

[southsider2k5]

You're going to throw out Keppinger outlier season, but keep Beckham's? What the hell is happening to logic? Keppinger was also coming off a very good season. Beckham's not going to come close to Keppinger's 2012. None of this even matters.

 

Beckham has no value. Semien is a better ball player right now. Semien is younger, cheaper and part of the future. Play the kid. Beckham had more than enough chances.

 

Even when it is included, they still extremely close, as I clearly stated in the post.

 

How about another set of numbers to drive home the point? Jeff Keppinger career WAR 1.1. Gordan Beckham 5.6. Over the last five seasons Keppinger is 3.4, compared to Gordon's 5.6. In the last four years Kepp is 0.6, while Beckham is 3.5. Those numbers include Keppingers career season, and leave out Beckhams best season.

 

In other words, you are letting your emotions get the best of you here.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

Agreed he is a known quantity at the ripe old age of 27, he has some limited upside but he would need a full season of non-injured consistent playing time to re-establish and upgrade his trade value. The best case scenario the sox are looking at getting a few live arms.

 

This is my exact take on it. This is the Kevin Youkilis situation in Boston from 2012. Beckham has been with the Sox a long time, but he isn't worth a lot, he's injury prone at this point (even if they're freak incidents, it's hard to consider him anything but injury prone), and everyone and their mother knows the Sox aren't going to bring him back next year with Semien performing well with Matt Davidson, Micah Johnson, and a few others waiting around on top of that.

 

Frankly, I think the best thing the Sox could do for Beckham's value is to pick out good matchups for him and get him experience around the infield. If he gets hot and Semien gets cold, make a move at that point, but Semien is the future and getting him playing time in the majors is the best thing for him right now.

 

Like I said...in the best possible scenario, Beckham is going to come out and put up about a .270/.340/.410 (my .300/.350/.400 earlier really didn't match up with his profile, but I was kind of in a rush), and a team is going to give you a C+ or B- prospect instead of a C prospect, and that's if you're incredibly lucky.

[iamshack]

Let me ask this...do you guys believe Semien will provide significantly better production this year than Beckham?

 

If so, fine, go with it, bench Beckham or super-sub him, and give Semien the regular every day 2nd base job.

 

If not, send Semien back down and let him get at-bats in Charlotte and allow Gordon to either make or break himself with the White Sox.

 

It's really not that difficult.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Exactly. And when and if (when), one of the 18 or 20 teams in June or July who still think they have a shot this year loses a middle infielder for the season, an experienced and playing-pretty-decently Beckham would be an appealing stopgap. s*** happens during the season. Teams develop needs they didn't anticipate. Carlos Beltran played 1st base for the Yankees the other night and we're not 2 weeks into the season. It will be nice for the Sox to have those players available when those needs arise.

 

All of this made possible because there is zero actual urgency for the Sox to get all of their future regulars playing NOW! instead of a few months from now. There is only soxtalk.com-thread-urgency.

I've already admitted that it's a selfish desire to see Semien in the Sox lineup now .We all know a successful rebuild hinges on getting more minor league pieces BUT having some early season success just might put some butts in the seats ,whereas, looking like the same team from last year is a surefire way to get the fans even more disinterested ( if that's even possible).

 

If Beckham has value let him show it as the super-utilty guy playing SS, 3rd and 2nd base playing behind Semien and taking Leury Garcia's spot He needs to earn it now instead of having it handed to him like always.

[BigHurt3515]

Let me ask this...do you guys believe Semien will provide significantly better production this year than Beckham?

 

If so, fine, go with it, bench Beckham or super-sub him, and give Semien the regular every day 2nd base job.

 

If not, send Semien back down and let him get at-bats in Charlotte and allow Gordon to either make or break himself with the White Sox.

 

It's really not that difficult.

 

Significantly better? Probably not. But I would say better and it would give him a year in the bigs to adjust more. But I still think he is going to put up good numbers if given a whole year

[beautox]

I would think that texas lines up really well with us with their string of recent injuries including Beltre. They've got some really good looking live arms that would be considered C/C+; Wilmer Font, Keone Kela and Victor Payano all come to mind as targets.

[Vance Law]

Blue Jays just lost their second baseman for the season.