Semien

[chisox0587]

After 14 games you say this? I remember hw Josh Fields was anointed as the next 3Bman of the future based on half a year stats and where did he go?

 

 

I recall that season, Sox were out of it early that year losing 90 games, their was no pressure on Fields. I also recall he could not line up a 90 mph pitch right down middle and was late on them, not to good with the glove either. He hit off speed pitches that were up, and had a hitch in his swing. Simeon is not Josh Fields, Siemon better base runner, takes pitches, better defender, and doing farily decent to start of the season.

 

Regardless of how things go rest of the season, it is going to be interesting whether trades to Alexi, Beckham and company or by some chance the Sox hang around in late June early July. Hahn seems to be a smart man i dont think he gets carried away if sox are somehow atleast contention by then, he wont change the plan in the directions he wants the franchise to go to be a consistent winner.

[Balta1701]

(Yes, yes, I know there are many things that Hahn has done quite well, this was the only real black mark so far on his regime).

Well, a 63 win season is a pretty solid black mark overall too.

[CyAcosta41]

Well, a 63 win season is a pretty solid black mark overall too.

 

I'm one to lurk on message boards, occasionally post to discuss, but rarely debate. That said, this one really surprised me.

 

Really? Do you really think RH deserves ANY of the blame for the 63 win debacle that was 2013? That wasn't simply a volleyball hovering over the net and you found it impossible not to spike (truth being irrelevant)?

 

If you really think 2013 is a a "pretty solid black mark" AGAINST HAHN, then I have to say I couldn't disagree more.

 

Kenny, Jerry, Coop, Manto, the entire coaching staff, and every player who played on last year's deserve a heckuva lot more blame than Hahn for 2013.

 

If there was anyone who ever inherited a complete mess, it was Rick Hahn. He had little to no ability to do anything about 2013, other than take his lumps and stay true to a sensible, long-term plan. There would have been plenty of GMs who might have paid dearly for some minor 2013 improvements which would have cost a lot more in the long run (in terms of locking into silly long-terms deals with players who simply didn't long-term matter).

 

If anything, I think Hahn deserves a heck of a lot of credit for "taking it like a man" in 2013, so that he could best show his stuff going forward. Not every sound baseball decision works out. Sometimes you square up a ball and line out hard to a fielder. But, that's infinitely more desirable than doinking one with a bad swing and winding up on base. One is sustainable and eventually leads to success; the other are doinks.

 

LOVE having Rick Hahn as the Sox GM. The likelihood of a 2013 type mess is what opened the job for him. Blame him if you will, but I don't, and I'm happy to let it dirty him up a little if it means that it enabled the Sox to have a really good GM for the long haul.

 

For my money, Hahn has been truly impressive in his short time on the job.

[Eminor3rd]

Here's another way to look at it:

 

What exactly do we want Semien to learn in AAA?

 

When I look at his results and peripherals, I really only see one issue: strikeout rate (28.1%). But what is causing the high K rate?

 

Almost everything actually looks really good. The BB rate is a touch above league average (10.5%), the O-Swing rate is significantly better than average (18.6% by Pitch F/X, 24.1% by FG), and his Z-Contact is right in line with league average (83.5%/88.2%). The issue appears to lie in Z-Swing (56.1% compared to about 65% for average) and O-Contact (50% compared to about 65% again).

 

So it appears he's (1) actually taking too many good pitches in the zone, and (2) in the rare instances that he DOES swing outside of the zone or get fooled by a slider, he's really struggling to make contact. I can't see any reason that improving either of those wouldn't best be done at the highest level possible. And, arguably, he may not even WANT to change #1 much if he's operating under direction to work counts.

 

If he's going to improve, it's going to be on recognizing ML breaking pitches. I don't think he can do that in AAA because he won't be seeing those high quality pitches.

[Rowand44]

I'm one to lurk on message boards, occasionally post to discuss, but rarely debate. That said, this one really surprised me.

 

Really? Do you really think RH deserves ANY of the blame for the 63 win debacle that was 2013? That wasn't simply a volleyball hovering over the net and you found it impossible not to spike (truth being irrelevant)?

 

If you really think 2013 is a a "pretty solid black mark" AGAINST HAHN, then I have to say I couldn't disagree more.

 

Kenny, Jerry, Coop, Manto, the entire coaching staff, and every player who played on last year's deserve a heckuva lot more blame than Hahn for 2013.

 

If there was anyone who ever inherited a complete mess, it was Rick Hahn. He had little to no ability to do anything about 2013, other than take his lumps and stay true to a sensible, long-term plan. There would have been plenty of GMs who might have paid dearly for some minor 2013 improvements which would have cost a lot more in the long run (in terms of locking into silly long-terms deals with players who simply didn't long-term matter).

 

If anything, I think Hahn deserves a heck of a lot of credit for "taking it like a man" in 2013, so that he could best show his stuff going forward. Not every sound baseball decision works out. Sometimes you square up a ball and line out hard to a fielder. But, that's infinitely more desirable than doinking one with a bad swing and winding up on base. One is sustainable and eventually leads to success; the other are doinks.

 

LOVE having Rick Hahn as the Sox GM. The likelihood of a 2013 type mess is what opened the job for him. Blame him if you will, but I don't, and I'm happy to let it dirty him up a little if it means that it enabled the Sox to have a really good GM for the long haul.

 

For my money, Hahn has been truly impressive in his short time on the job.

 

 

Here's another way to look at it:

 

What exactly do we want Semien to learn in AAA?

 

When I look at his results and peripherals, I really only see one issue: strikeout rate (28.1%). But what is causing the high K rate?

 

Almost everything actually looks really good. The BB rate is a touch above league average (10.5%), the O-Swing rate is significantly better than average (18.6% by Pitch F/X, 24.1% by FG), and his Z-Contact is right in line with league average (83.5%/88.2%). The issue appears to lie in Z-Swing (56.1% compared to about 65% for average) and O-Contact (50% compared to about 65% again).

 

So it appears he's (1) actually taking too many good pitches in the zone, and (2) in the rare instances that he DOES swing outside of the zone or get fooled by a slider, he's really struggling to make contact. I can't see any reason that improving either of those wouldn't best be done at the highest level possible. And, arguably, he may not even WANT to change #1 much if he's operating under direction to work counts.

 

If he's going to improve, it's going to be on recognizing ML breaking pitches. I don't think he can do that in AAA because he won't be seeing those high quality pitches.

Good stuff here by both you guys.

[CyAcosta41]

If he's going to improve, it's going to be on recognizing ML breaking pitches. I don't think he can do that in AAA because he won't be seeing those high quality pitches.

 

Sin duda, dude. Spot-on.

 

To me, part of the "art" (as opposed to "science") in baseball is having a feel for the subtle distinctions in this great game. You simply can't paint with such a broad brush and lump everyone together, as if meaningful differences aren't there.

 

Specifically, while certain players have absolutely been "rushed" to the bigs, to their detriment, you can't say the fast-track is wrong for everyone.

 

There is a long history of a narrow subset of players -- players with solid fundamentals and high baseball IQ -- who are best served learning what it takes to be an effective MAJOR league player by actually playing against MAJOR league competition. Marcus clearly has advanced strike zone understanding and a simple. workable, and (my opinion) sustainable line-drive stroke.

 

Eminor's cited stats conform to what I see. His rookie deficiencies --and they're relatively minor and absolutely correctable -- requires that he continue to battle against and sometimes struggle against MAJOR league competition. We'd learn absolutely nothing by him putting up another round of 2013 style numbers in the minors.

 

One of the few beauties of this type of rebuilding year is that there is no reason that the Sox can't give him this opportunity to learn on the job -- just as they're doing or were planning on doing with Eaton, Abreu, and Avi. All of these players are different (as players always are), but the theory of having the luxury of learning on the job applies equally to all of them. I think one of the pleasant surprises of 2014 is that Marcus Semien has worked his way into the company of Eaton, Abreu, and Avi (AGAIN, for his particular skill set).

 

Hopefully he'll be able to play plus second base, or POSSIBLY at least adequate shortstop, and the Sox might have a really solid middle infielder for the next 6-8 years.

[NorthSideSox72]

Just to be clear, one can think Semien is major league-ready (which I do), and think his few issues can be corrected at the MLB level (which I also do)... but ALSO think the overall best path for the team is for him to be in AAA for a couple months while Beckham ups his trade value. Being in AAA a couple months, especially since he's spent very little time there anyway, does not hurt his development, and may in fact help it.

 

[TaylorStSox]

Beckham "upping his trade value" is such a ridiculous notion.

[flavum]

Beckham "upping his trade value" is such a ridiculous notion.

 

I know where you're coming from, but he actually has to play major league games in order to get traded before August 1st.

[ScottyDo]

Beckham "upping his trade value" is such a ridiculous notion.

why, exactly? He's widely viewed as a good-to-great defensive guy with offensive talent who hasn't unlocked it, so if he started off hot someone would trade for him for sure. Everyone thinks they can "fix" guys like him. We wouldn't get a haul or anything, but from a contending team that needs defense and the potential for offense at 2b, you could get non-zero value.

[hammerhead johnson]

but ALSO think the overall best path for the team is for him to be in AAA for a couple months while Beckham ups his trade value.

 

Nah

[Dick Allen]

Beckham "upping his trade value" is such a ridiculous notion.

 

Gordon Beckham could hit .400 with 50 homers and you would say he was awful. He certainly can up his trade value and was hitting over .300 last year with a lot of warning track outs near the end of August after his wrist injury before his quad became a problem. Injured wrists zap power. It is a fact.

 

If he is healthy, and that seems to be a problem, he still can be a really good player. You will never admit that and that is fine. You are not alone. If he can't get and stay healthy and perform, I'm sure he will be gone after this season.

[southsider2k5]

Just to be clear, one can think Semien is major league-ready (which I do), and think his few issues can be corrected at the MLB level (which I also do)... but ALSO think the overall best path for the team is for him to be in AAA for a couple months while Beckham ups his trade value. Being in AAA a couple months, especially since he's spent very little time there anyway, does not hurt his development, and may in fact help it.

 

Ding. Winner.

[southsider2k5]

Gordon Beckham could hit .400 with 50 homers and you would say he was awful. He certainly can up his trade value and was hitting over .300 last year with a lot of warning track outs near the end of August after his wrist injury before his quad became a problem. Injured wrists zap power. It is a fact.

 

If he is healthy, and that seems to be a problem, he still can be a really good player. You will never admit that and that is fine. You are not alone. If he can't get and stay healthy and perform, I'm sure he will be gone after this season.

 

He doesn't even have to be a "good" player to have trade value.

[NorthSideSox72]

I get the doubts about how much trade value Beckham would have, and one could debate that. But the idea that a healthy Beckham with a good (or even just decent) May and June doesn't have value is nothing more than people's emotions getting the better of them. If Jeff Keppinger, who is a marginally better hitter but worse fielder at 2B (and likely at 3B, though Gordon hasn't played there in a while), can get the contract he did, then Beckham clearly has some trade value. And a couple so-so prospects is better than nothing.

 

[TaylorStSox]

I get the doubts about how much trade value Beckham would have, and one could debate that. But the idea that a healthy Beckham with a good (or even just decent) May and June doesn't have value is nothing more than people's emotions getting the better of them. If Jeff Keppinger, who is a marginally better hitter but worse fielder at 2B (and likely at 3B, though Gordon hasn't played there in a while), can get the contract he did, then Beckham clearly has some trade value. And a couple so-so prospects is better than nothing.

Keppinger was coming off a season where he hit .325 with a 126 OPS+ and got a marginal deal that the Sox surely regret. What can Beckham do in 2 months to have any trade value whatsoever? Seriously. GM's aren't that dumb.

 

Don't mess with Semien. Give him the job and play him everyday. He's ready.

[Chicago White Sox]

The question isn't whether or not Beckham can up his trade value, but rather is it probable. It's one thing to give Beckham regular playing time if we didn't have a major league ready option at 2B, but we do have that player available and there's an opportunity cost to sending him to Charlotte. Semien clearly has advanced plate discipline for his age and I would argue like Eminor did that he'd be better off facing major league pitching right now vs. AAA pitching. Keeping him at the major league level will allow him to go through his growing pains now and put him in better position to be an above-average contributor next season.

 

I just don't think Beckham is likely to play well enough to get us a return that offsets delaying Semien's development. In fact, I would argue that the best way to increase his value is by making him our reserve IF and giving him playing time at both SS & 3B. If he could handle those positions, his market would expand because there aren't going to be a lot of players available at the deadline that can fill those positions. You probably won't get a ton for him, but I'd rather gamble on him being able to demonstrate defensive versatility in the coming weeks than him finally putting it together with bat. And perhaps only playing 3 or 4 days a week would help keep him healthy.

[Dick Allen]

Beckham probably won't be ready to go for a least another week or 2. Let's see where Semien is at then. Opinions can change, after all, Flowers and Dunn are no longer on the dead weight list. I'm sure 2 weeks from now either some who think Semien should remain the starting 2nd baseman or some who think he wouldn't be hurt by some time in Charlotte will change their minds.

Edited April 15, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Jake]

I was a proponent of Semien starting in AAA to start the year and I'm still not totally against it. Overall, he's slightly exceeded my expectations. K rate is high, too high, though. It will be very important to see where that goes in the coming weeks. He had half the K rate in AA last year. You don't cut your K rate in half in the big leagues. With that said, this is a small sample so it may not be the case that he's truly a 28% K% player right now.

 

On the other hand, we may see 2-4 weeks of Semien getting absolutely devastated at the plate too. Given how little success he's had above AA (including AFL), I don't feel any real degree of certainty that a counter-adjustment from the league couldn't turn him into a barely serviceable offensive player. You never see those kinds of things coming, either.

[TaylorStSox]

A lot of the K's I've seen from Semien have been the result of him being out guessed during tough situational AB's. That's pretty common for a kid his age. It's not something I'd worry about.

[NorthSideSox72]

Keppinger was coming off a season where he hit .325 with a 126 OPS+ and got a marginal deal that the Sox surely regret. What can Beckham do in 2 months to have any trade value whatsoever? Seriously. GM's aren't that dumb.

 

Don't mess with Semien. Give him the job and play him everyday. He's ready.

You can cherry pick if you want, but career-wise, Keppinger has been only slightly better hitter than Beckham, hasn't usually been a full time player and in fact was given beneficial platoon assignments, is a worse defender, and is SIX years older. Beckham also has a year of Arb left and has no cost obligations past this year, by the way.

 

Fortunately, the Sox GM has a long term view on things and isn't going to overreact to 2 weeks of play. He's got a plan and he's sticking to it, which is great.

 

Semien is ready - no argument there. That isn't what this is about, since everyone is agreeing either he's ready, or certainly at least very close. The question is about what is best for the long term plan for this club. Whether Semien spends a couple months in AAA in the early going or not, is not going to do anything negative for him, or the club. Giving up on Beckham too early and losing the chance for potential value, could. The choice is clear, unless you A) think this is a likely playoff-bound club as constructed today or B) you simply are reacting emotionally because you (like everyone else) have been frustrated that Beckham never turned into the above average player we all wanted him to be.

[TaylorStSox]

I just can't believe that rational fans are even suggesting that it's giving up on Beckham "too early." The book has been written. He's a bust. 27 year olds with 2500 MLB AB's don't just suddenly figure it out. Trade him for some A level pitcher that throws 95 and can't hit the broadside of a barn. Play Semien everyday and let's move on with the rebuild. This isn't a reactionary move.

[Eminor3rd]

Just to be clear, one can think Semien is major league-ready (which I do), and think his few issues can be corrected at the MLB level (which I also do)... but ALSO think the overall best path for the team is for him to be in AAA for a couple months while Beckham ups his trade value. Being in AAA a couple months, especially since he's spent very little time there anyway, does not hurt his development, and may in fact help it.

 

Absolutely. I'm actually on the fence with what I want to happen.

 

I do think there is potential danger in sending a guy with advanced plate discipline to the minors, however, especially if coaching is in fact trying to get him to expand his zone (no idea if they are, just that it could be justifiable giving that he takes so many strikes.), simply because he could develop bad habits in being able to succeed hitting crappier stuff.

 

No idea if it would hurt him or not, but I think it's plausible that it could. I don't think we, as fans, can have enough information to know what's best. It'll come down to how clearly the coaching staff thinks they can communicate with him. Maybe it's as simple as "do nothing different, just rake and wait for your shot."

[Eminor3rd]

Keppinger makes $4m per year. Gordon Beckham makes $4m per year.

[southsider2k5]

I just can't believe that rational fans are even suggesting that it's giving up on Beckham "too early." The book has been written. He's a bust. 27 year olds with 2500 MLB AB's don't just suddenly figure it out. Trade him for some A level pitcher that throws 95 and can't hit the broadside of a barn. Play Semien everyday and let's move on with the rebuild. This isn't a reactionary move.

 

Jose Bautista should have just hung it up.