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White Sox @ Rangers 2:05 PM - CSN


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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 02:41 PM)
For the purposes of the game, yes. For the likelihood of it continuing throughout the year, no.

 

Who cares? You are acting like you are mad at him for having success. Sometimes players go on crazy streaks that defy statistics

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 02:41 PM)
For the purposes of the game, yes. For the likelihood of it continuing throughout the year, no.

No but is shows the flaw in sabermetrics attitude towards strikeouts. You don't have to hit the ball on the screws every time to reach base and ultimately score runs. Many of Flowers hits were hit poorly. More poorly than many outs he has made in his career, but you give yourself a chance putting it in play.

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QUOTE (scs787 @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 02:42 PM)
This, I'm finding this BABIP stat highly annoying.

 

It's not annoying, it's just the law of averages.

 

Over the course of 2000 some plate appearances, no hitters are going to have half of their balls in play turn into hits. Many would be extremely lucky to have 35% of those fall. It's just not plausible to have half of them turn into hits.

 

Flowers isn't going to have a .567 BABIP for the rest of the year. What he's doing now just isn't sustainable. There's nothing annoying about it, it's just reality.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 02:44 PM)
It's not annoying, it's just the law of averages.

 

Over the course of 2000 some plate appearances, no hitters are going to have half of their balls in play turn into hits. Many would be extremely lucky to have 35% of those fall. It's just not plausible to have half of them turn into hits.

 

Flowers isn't going to have a .567 BABIP for the rest of the year. What he's doing now just isn't sustainable. There's nothing annoying about it, it's just reality.

The longer it goes on, the better the chance he will finish pretty high above normal.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 02:44 PM)
No but is shows the flaw in sabermetrics attitude towards strikeouts. You don't have to hit the ball on the screws every time to reach base and ultimately score runs. Many of Flowers hits were hit poorly. More poorly than many outs he has made in his career, but you give yourself a chance putting it in play.

 

Which Flowers doesn't do a lot of since he strikes out 35% of the time.

 

It sucks to be a debbie downer about Flowers, but the regression is going to come and when it does, it's going to suck.

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QUOTE (scs787 @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 01:42 PM)
This, I'm finding this BABIP stat highly annoying.

Why? It shows that he's not really improved, he's just gotten lucky. He's walked less than last year and struck out more, only difference is almost 6 out of every 10 balls he's put in play have landed for a hit. Without any other changes, his stat-line will begin to plummet.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 01:43 PM)
Who cares? You are acting like you are mad at him for having success. Sometimes players go on crazy streaks that defy statistics

I'm not mad at him, I'm simply pointing out that the people who think he's improved are in for a surprise. It doesn't really defy statistics either, it happens over a small sample size.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 01:44 PM)
No but is shows the flaw in sabermetrics attitude towards strikeouts. You don't have to hit the ball on the screws every time to reach base and ultimately score runs. Many of Flowers hits were hit poorly. More poorly than many outs he has made in his career, but you give yourself a chance putting it in play.

Uh, yeah, which is why I'm pointing out he's actually struck out more than last year.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 02:47 PM)
The longer it goes on, the better the chance he will finish pretty high above normal.

 

Even if it's around .350, he might be a .250 hitter, which I'd be fine with.

 

But you have to realize that luck is not a skill. The chances of Flowers replicating his high BABIP in following years is pretty unlikely.

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