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ILMOU

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I would be shocked to see the White Sox give the equivalent of a Tanaka contract to a 32-33 year old James Shields.

 

He and his agent have already targeted Greinke's $147 million deal.

 

Might not get it (just like Santana didn't get $100 million either), but that doesn't mean he's going to be much under $125.

 

All things considered, with the age/wear and tear concerns, I think Masterson would be much more likely if they could somehow get him for $80-95 million.

 

Shields is the better pitcher of the two, but Masterson's sinker seems well suited for USCF, and he's the younger pitcher in terms of overall mileage and age by far.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 10:03 AM)
I wonder what the relationship between Beck is and the rotation for next year. I am sure there is a contingency plan in place but these results have been dastardly to this point. It's strange to see a guy throw as hard as Beck does and strikeout next to no one. Hahn likes the guy a lot as he always makes an effort to throw him in the talks when asked about the system or the future of the rotation just as he had with Johnson. He does fit the White Sox mold to a tee with the workhorse frame and sinker ball.

 

Everything indicates we will be spending money next season, I think not only is bringing a starting pitcher aboard a distinct possibility, it's more likely than not. Sale-Quintana-Johnson are obviously the locks with Danks, Beck (at least before this rough string of stats), #3 (not necessarily for '15) being the wildcards. I just wonder if were going for a front end guy (Shields, Masterson, etc.) or a middle of the road guy.

 

As a White Sox fan in an aborted season, there is nothing more attractive to me than thinking about the potential for the rotation. Sale-Shields/Masterson-Quintana-Johnson-Hoffman/Rodon. Two cheap front-end, controlled LH, Erik Johnson, the #3 pick and money to blow. The future has potential without a doubt.

 

Unless attendance and advertising picks up, I am not sure this is a safe assumption.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 09:25 AM)
Unless attendance and advertising picks up, I am not sure this is a safe assumption.

 

 

Now you did it.

 

Cue response about "you have to spend money to make money" and how not improving the on-field product will lead to a continuous downward cycle/spiral like the end of the Veeck years.

 

Or that Reinsdorf should sell the team now if he's not going to go for it like Illitch in Detroit every year.

 

It's a bit stunning that the White Sox and Indians are nearly 5,000 behind the Royals for 28th place in attendance per game. That's a pretty significant gap, even if it's just 10 games into the season and the usual excuses can be bandied about.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (raBBit @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 11:17 AM)
Dunn, De Aza, Beckham, Konerko and Lindstrom moving on would shed roughly 35 million dollars from our ~90 million payroll. Speaking conservatively, after Sale's year-to-year jump and arbitration raises that should add say, 10 million (Sale's 2.5mil + all other players raises, again very conservative estimate). If we are sitting at ~75 million with Danks, Ramirez, Keppinger still on the books you really don't think were going to spend? If the team went as far trading Danks and Ramirez that would put us in the bottom three teams or so in payroll.

 

Considering everything Rock has said and the team's willingness to offer a 9 digit contract to Tanaka, there is money to spend despite the unending attendance argument.

 

I am anticipating the uptick in draft and international spending argument... While that is surely a component, it's not going to permit us from adding payroll as whole.

 

Now contrast that with the fact that the team lost money last year, and is even further down the in both attendance and advertising this year. Unless someone too good to pass on comes along, which I don't see who and how, I'm not sure we spend a whole lot of money this off season. There would have to be either a big rebound in play on the field, people hitting the turnstyles, or both.

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QUOTE (Cerbaho-WG @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 07:58 PM)
He is incredibly overrated. If he doesn't improve upon last year's K/9IP ratio, his future lies in the pen.

If that. K's are kind of essential in the pen.

 

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 10:32 AM)
I don't want to go down this road, but we're not going to win without supplementing the young core. Away from our three long term guys (Sale, Quintana and Abreu) and a few select other players, we have the potential to have a clean slate for our payroll. We would have to spend considerably to just stay even with our current payroll in a time where payrolls are growing across the board.

 

from southsidesox.com

 

 

 

White Sox attendance remained fairly consistent throughout the year. The White Sox followed their usual "mediocre in April and May" in 2013. After Opening Day, Sox attendance settled into the 16,000 weekday/28,000 weekend pattern. April and May also happened to be cooler and wetter than normal.

 

In previous years, the White Sox finally start playing good baseball in late May. They usually ride a hot streak into first place before cratering in August or September. When the White Sox get hot, people start showing up at the ballpark.

 

It doesn't hurt that previous Sox hot streaks tended to coincide with the end of school and the arrival of warmer weather.

 

When times are good, the weekday games that typically draw 18,000-20,000 fans start to draw 25,000-30,000 fans.

 

Obviously, that didn't happen in 2013.

 

Family Sundays? 311,965 took advantage of the lower prices for tickets and parking during the 13 Sunday home dates in 2013. 314,608 people went to 13 Sunday games in 2012.

 

At first blush, it would appear that Family Sundays didn't really help. But, it could have kept attendance from falling off a cliff.

 

The good news is that the state of White Sox fandom is fairly strong. 1.7 million fans in a year that was historically bad might be the new "floor" of White Sox attendance. (heading towards 1.45-1.65 million this year)

 

On the other hand, attendance is a misleading stat. "People buying tickets" is just one source of baseball revenue. The White Sox also get money from ballpark advertising, naming rights (not sure where we currently stand with US Cellular/Sprint, theoretically still receiving $3.7 million), skyboxes, Scout Seats, parties in the Patio and Center Field Fan Deck, the Club Level, Gold Coast Tickets Club (gone), Stadium Club, Bacardi at the Park (gone), Chicago Sports Depot, along with their broadcast rights deals with WSCR-AM, WGN-TV, and Comcast SportsNet.

 

Plus, the nature of "attendance" might change. I recently watched a focus group in which a bunch of middle-aged men talked about their sports preferences. They were all fans of Chicago sports, but they considered attending a game to be a tremendous hassle. They lived in the suburbs, and they didn't like the idea of driving to the ballpark, paying for parking, paying for food and drinks, and then driving home. They said they were fine with the idea of watching the games on TV.

 

The final 2013 attendance number is an indictment of the product on the field. The team does go out of its way to be fan-friendly. The "US Cellular Field experience" is a pleasant one, regardless of the outcome. In recent years the team cut ticket prices, added new food items, and introduced craft beer stands around the ballpark. The stadium staff bends over backwards to make sure the fans have a good time.

 

Now it's up to Rick Hahn to give ‘em a full house.

 

 

NOTE: There's still the XFINITY Fundamentals Deck...do we still have Chicago Sports Depot?

Edited by caulfield12
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Even with a decline in attendance and ad revenue... with the fact that salary obligations for next year are only around $50M, and the TV money boost from MLB, I'd say there is zero chance they don't spend some significant money this coming offseason. They may not be at $100M+, but I'd be shocked if they were lower than, say, $80M.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 12:53 PM)
Even with a decline in attendance and ad revenue... with the fact that salary obligations for next year are only around $50M, and the TV money boost from MLB, I'd say there is zero chance they don't spend some significant money this coming offseason. They may not be at $100M+, but I'd be shocked if they were lower than, say, $80M.

Rock suggested in another thread that when they thought they were ready to compete, they could probably push $40 million a year higher. But my worry now is, with Garcia out for the year, there's a decent chance they could still wind up thinking of next year as rebuilding, depending on the progress other guys make.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 11:32 AM)
I don't want to go down this road, but we're not going to win without supplementing the young core. Away from our three long term guys (Sale, Quintana and Abreu) and a few select other players, we have the potential to have a clean slate for our payroll. We would have to spend considerably to just stay even with our current payroll in a time where payrolls are growing across the board.

 

And they aren't going to have any money to spend with only 10k a night showing up.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 12:24 PM)
And they aren't going to have any money to spend with only 10k a night showing up.

Oh come on now. It's April, and an April that has been part of the coldest spring I can remember. You can't really think that continues all year.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 12:29 PM)
Oh come on now. It's April, and an April that has been part of the coldest spring I can remember. You can't really think that continues all year.

 

I think attendance will be WAY down this year. Something in the 20-25% range. I also think it is really obvious that advertising is way down right now as well. A lot of names have disappeared from the park.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 11:32 AM)
I don't want to go down this road, but we're not going to win without supplementing the young core. Away from our three long term guys (Sale, Quintana and Abreu) and a few select other players, we have the potential to have a clean slate for our payroll. We would have to spend considerably to just stay even with our current payroll in a time where payrolls are growing across the board.

 

 

I have a hard time believing that the Sox will pay for a free agent next season that costs a 1st or 2nd round draft pick though. Not really in position to do that.

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