Jose Abreu general discussion

[TitoMB345]

LOL no, their system is not any bit subjective and they have had it for at least 3-4 years. I am sure they have some system where a they can tell a HR wouldn't be a HR in x amount of other ballparks. For instance, when Gillaspie wrapped one around Pesky's Pole in Boston I am sure they could quantify that that specific HR would only be a HR in a few ballparks.

I read an article on that matter. They also mentioned that he has one of the highest line drive rates in the league, which almost assuredlly accounts for a lot of those "just enough" home runs. If those "just enough" home run-line drives start hitting the top of the fence, they become XBHs. So, that's not all a bad thing. At the same time, he has the fourth best average fly ball distance, which combined with his high line drive rate says he's doing just fine.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

LOL no, their system is not any bit subjective and they have had it for at least 3-4 years. I am sure they have some system where a they can tell a HR wouldn't be a HR in x amount of other ballparks. For instance, when Gillaspie wrapped one around Pesky's Pole in Boston I am sure they could quantify that that specific HR would only be a HR in a few ballparks.

It's dumb though. Who cares that a HR just made it over the fence. I'm sure Hank Aaron had a ton of those. I know we all like 450 ft. HR's but keeping track of just barely made it HR's is just ridiculous. What possible purpose does it serve ?

[Balta1701]

Jose Abreu leads baseball in, according to ESPN HR tracker, in "just enough" home runs with 13. Second place is 10.

 

 

Ha I can't believe they keep track of that. Naturally I never heard of it until a Sox player is leading the league in HR's. I don't know if its me or does that seem like east coast bias in the most subtle kind of way ? Kind of like Abreu is just lucky until some real HR hitter , naturally from an East team can emerge.

 

 

It's dumb though. Who cares that a HR just made it over the fence. I'm sure Hank Aaron had a ton of those. I know we all like 450 ft. HR's but keeping track of just barely made it HR's is just ridiculous. What possible purpose does it serve ?

Actually it kind of makes sense, he absolutely has the knack of doing that "line drive down the line" HR, we've seen a bunch of those down both sides of the field this year.

[TheChrisSamsa]

It's a sign that he his HR totals may be due for regression. Not to say he isn't a 40+ HR hitter annually, but just in this current sample, slightly different circumstances could have led to less HRs.

 

It's also a sign of the type of hitter he is. We have no other data like this to compare his results to. Some players hit more "sure shot" bombs, some players hit rising line-drives.. At least the line-drives turn into XBH instead of pop outs if they don't go over the walls. There are very few hitters who do what Abreu does, so I'm not surprised that "analysts" feel like he's due for a regression... There's no comparable to prove otherwise.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

It's a sign that he his HR totals may be due for regression. Not to say he isn't a 40+ HR hitter annually, but just in this current sample, slightly different circumstances could have led to less HRs.

Where did you come up with that ? I think every HR hitter has a bunch of just made its. Let's say weak power guy hits fly balls an average of 275-325 ft. , a middle power guy 300-350 ft and an elite power guy 325 -375 ft. Now these are just average fly balls not HR's but because of the power these normal fly balls go over the fence on a more consistent basis.

 

If you had said research shows the effects of a high percentage of just barely HR's often leads to regression I'd have something concrete to think about. I know they haven't kept track of such things very long but my guess is the percentage of just barely a HR is pretty high for most guys who hit a lot of homers. Maybe between 30-50 %. The stat hasn't been around long enough to draw any conclusions.

 

If there's any regression it'll be due to other factors like never having played a season this long before or getting pitched around a lot more.

Edited July 13, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

It's dumb though. Who cares that a HR just made it over the fence. I'm sure Hank Aaron had a ton of those. I know we all like 450 ft. HR's but keeping track of just barely made it HR's is just ridiculous. What possible purpose does it serve ?

 

What purpose does tracking the distance on any home run serve? Nothing, it's just fun to know. It's fun to know what hitters have the most "No Doubter" home runs, and which hit the most "Just Enough" home runs. If you don't care, that's fine, but understand that a lot of people find it interesting.

 

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

And for the Conor Gillaspie HR that snuck inside the foul pole..... It would have been a HR in all 30 parks. He actually hit it 378 feet, it just happen to sneak inside the pole, which is the same in every park.

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php...amp;type=hitter

 

 

[Jake]

I hope he shows some ability to start drawing walks. Go on FanGraphs and filter all 1B in the last 30-40 years and show me one that walks as infrequently as Abreu. The best comp I could find was Andres Galarraga. With that said, Abreu's rather quick adjustment to what looked like a serious strikeout issue has already been very impressive. One thing at a time.

Edited July 13, 2014 by Jake

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I hope he shows some ability to start drawing walks. Go on FanGraphs and filter all 1B in the last 30-40 years and show me one that walks as infrequently as Abreu. The best comp I could find was Andres Galarraga. With that said, Abreu's rather quick adjustment to what looked like a serious strikeout issue has already been very impressive. One thing at a time.

 

In their first season?

 

Mark Trumbo hit 29 bombs his rookie year. Walked 4.4% of the time.

 

Joe Carter had a 5.8% career walk rate.

 

Here is a list of 41 1B who walked less than 6.4% of the time in their rookie seasons. I expect Jose's BB% to improve just like these hitters saw their improve once he not only gets used to the pitchers he has never seen before, but also the respect he will get from pitchers who pitch around him to avoid his bat.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...amp;sort=10%2ca

[Feeky Magee]

In their first season?

 

Mark Trumbo hit 29 bombs his rookie year. Walked 4.4% of the time.

 

Joe Carter had a 5.8% career walk rate.

 

Here is a list of 41 1B who walked less than 6.4% of the time in their rookie seasons. I expect Jose's BB% to improve just like these hitters saw their improve once he not only gets used to the pitchers he has never seen before, but also the respect he will get from pitchers who pitch around him to avoid his bat.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...amp;sort=10%2ca

His BB% is way inflated by IBBs. 9 out of his 23 walks were intentional.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

His BB% is way inflated by IBBs. 9 out of his 23 walks were intentional.

 

If he hits close to .300 again in the 2nd half with 15+ home runs and another 40+ RBI, he can draw all the disproportionate amount of IBB he wants.

[Quin]

I'm sure when Abreu hits a homer that just barely makes it out the pitcher goes "In another park, that stays in!"

[Jose Abreu]

I'm sure when Abreu hits a homer that just barely makes it out the pitcher goes "In another park, that stays in!"

Yeah, who cares about all this. A home run is a home run.

[Jose Abreu]

According to John Saunders on this morning's ESPN Sports Reporters, Nelson Cruz is the major league leader in home runs. I guess that means 28 > 29.

Annoying. Same thing happened on MLB Tonight

[chw42]

I don't think we could have wished for better results from Abreu.

 

.292/.342/.630 at the break with 29 homers. Amazing.

[greg775]

I don't think we could have wished for better results from Abreu.

 

.292/.342/.630 at the break with 29 homers. Amazing.

His natural talent is amazing. You could build a lineup around that guy. Cmon, Hahn. We have a few good hitters in the lineup and some who don't belong in the big leagues. Let's fix it ASAP.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

His natural talent is amazing. You could build a lineup around that guy. Cmon, Hahn. We have a few good hitters in the lineup and some who don't belong in the big leagues. Let's fix it ASAP.

Be patient. Gota play out the year, Avi is coming back soon, and let's see what they do from now until the trade deadline. See if we can get some more good young talent. And see some of our young guys brought up and get some consistent ABs.

[hi8is]

Be patient. Gota play out the year, Avi is coming back soon, and let's see what they do from now until the trade deadline. See if we can get some more good young talent. And see some of our young guys brought up and get some consistent ABs.

This offseason can be big too with so much money coming off the books. Lots of room in trade talks for picking up salary as well as free agency shake downs.

 

I'm most interested in seeing how quick Rodon breaks into the rotation.

 

If that guy throws like an ace at times in 2015 - paired with Sale - and Q behind him... We're looking at another big step forward with our spending room in the mix.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

This offseason can be big too with so much money coming off the books. Lots of room in trade talks for picking up salary as well as free agency shake downs.

 

I'm most interested in seeing how quick Rodon breaks into the rotation.

 

If that guy throws like an ace at times in 2015 - paired with Sale - and Q behind him... We're looking at another big step forward with our spending room in the mix.

 

Yes. I'm hoping we sign Victor to DH, sign a starting pitcher.

[Melissa1334]

Yes. I'm hoping we sign Victor to DH, sign a starting pitcher.

 

I'd love to have him too but I'm sure the tigers won't let him go, really need him behind miggy

[Jake]

I'm not a fan of comparing Abreu to other rookies. He's 27 years old. By no means does he deserve veteran expectations, but it isn't the same as 21-24 year old rookies.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

What purpose does tracking the distance on any home run serve? Nothing, it's just fun to know. It's fun to know what hitters have the most "No Doubter" home runs, and which hit the most "Just Enough" home runs. If you don't care, that's fine, but understand that a lot of people find it interesting.

There nothing more majestic than watching a bomb . Long HR's are great but the shorter ones are the same as far as the box score is concerned.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

According to ESPN's hittracker, Jose Abreu leads both the "Just Enough" and "Lucky" categories.

 

Which means, he is strong enough to get routine flyballs to leave the park.

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php...amp;type=hitter

[Texsox]

I'm not a fan of comparing Abreu to other rookies. He's 27 years old. By no means does he deserve veteran expectations, but it isn't the same as 21-24 year old rookies.

 

Exactly. And I would go further that he is closer to veteran expectations than rookie forgiveness. And his pay check proves that is what MLB executives believe also.

[GreenSox]

According to ESPN's hittracker, Jose Abreu leads both the "Just Enough" and "Lucky" categories.

 

Which means, he is strong enough to get routine flyballs to leave the park.

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php...amp;type=hitter

That and he hits those line-drive home runs. This thing looks at elevation. That called the 400 footers he hit out in Detroit "Just enough"