Jose Abreu general discussion

[Jose Abreu]

Abreu is hitting .148 with 1 home run and 5 runs batted in on Saturdays this season. On the other hand, Gordon Beckham ranks 10th in baseball with his 4 home runs on Tuesdays this season.

[kitekrazy]

Anyone worried? I sorta am, particularly with the sudden loss of power since the break.

 

I think they call them slumps. Rumor has it every hitter gets them.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

That's a great stat because it once again highlights how valuable jose is to this team. If he's not hitting, we ain't winning. Hence, it's no coincidence the sox have a terrible record this year on Saturdays

Edited August 9, 2014 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[southsider2k5]

I think they call them slumps. Rumor has it every hitter gets them.

 

Except he really isn't slumping. He is still getting his hits.

[southsider2k5]

Colleen Kane ‏@ChiTribKane 44m

 

A year after leaving Cuba, White Sox's Abreu says transition to U.S. "like being born again" http://trib.in/1sIq7Kk pic.twitter.com/AWKShlgHkC”

[Balta1701]

There are 2 off days this week with 2 games in-between. Jose Abreu should get at least one of those days off. He won't, but he should. Looks completely out of it at the plate today. Not hurt, just exhausted.

[fathom]

It will be interesting to see if he gets to 40 homers this year.

[flavum]

Didn't watch much today, but I actually agree with Hawk that maybe he should just sit in San Francisco.

 

Maybe just take BP on Wednesday and be ready to pinch hit, but otherwise, get Abreu's sea legs back.

[LittleHurt05]

There are 2 off days this week with 2 games in-between. Jose Abreu should get at least one of those days off. He won't, but he should. Looks completely out of it at the plate today. Not hurt, just exhausted.

 

It's nice to know that I don't have to complain about Abreu's lack of time off, you beat me to it every single time. Thanks.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Anyone worried? I sorta am, particularly with the sudden loss of power since the break.

It was always my contention that the length of the Cuban season as opposed to the MLB season might have an effect on Jose. His body is used to being on vacation right about now. In my mind it was does he heat up in the warmer weather or wear down from the length of the season ? He played 5+ years there and his body will need to readjust . Might not be a matter of nutrition or strength but just a what the body and mind are used to.

[witesoxfan]

It's ironic that we're worried about Abreu playing too often when coming into the season the worry was that he wouldn't play enough.

 

Oh how times change.

 

BTW, this is not a criticism of anyone, I just find it ironic and nothing more.

[southsider2k5]

It's ironic that we're worried about Abreu playing too often when coming into the season the worry was that he wouldn't play enough.

 

Oh how times change.

 

BTW, this is not a criticism of anyone, I just find it ironic and nothing more.

Good call.

[Balta1701]

Well, that's 0/5 with 2 strikeouts in the first of the 2 games that I said Abreu should have a chance to sit during. Will he be in the lineup again today? I'll call myself impressed if he isn't.

[shysocks]

I'll give you ramirez but how has Dunn been vastly better this year? And flowers has improved his average but power numbers haven't improved. I wouldn't say he is vastly better. As we have seen over the past week, if abreu isn't driving in runs this entire offense is lifeless. He is was what makes this thing go. Without him, they are easily in the bottom third in runs scored and bottom 5 in record again even with the "vast" improvement of everyone else in the lineup.

Did not say Dunn was vastly better, just said he was better. Tyler's AVG/OBP/SLG right now stand .053/.060/.021 points higher than last season; if that is not a vast improvement, I don't know what is.

 

Regarding defensive metrics, yes they give you an idea of whether a guy is a good defender or not but my problem is the use of them as the end all be all. If they aren't perfect then they shouldn't be used as a large component in everyone's favorite modern age statistic - WAR. When people start using WAR as the single most important metric when evaluating trades, players's worth, etc. that's where I have an issue. Alex Gordon has the third highest WAR of position players this year, that's comical. Is he the third most valuable player in baseball this year? If you went by WAR, the answer is yes but I would love to hear an argument from anyone on this board that justifies this rank. Again, he's a LF, not a SS, 2b, or C, he's a LF!

Yes, and if balls hit to left field off KC pitchers are caught instead of going for doubles or runners hold at third instead of scoring on singles, that is valuable. Again, you're basically saying that WAR is bad because it doesn't seem to back up whatever feelings you already had. Whether or not Gordon is the third MVP isn't really the point. The defensive component of his WAR is the highest in baseball. That means he is doing something at an elite level and his WAR reflects that.

 

The bolded is a straw man argument that I can't deal with. I think you have a misconception that people just look at WAR and rank the players by that list. The people who use it acknowledge its imperfections, which is why other stats come in as well.

[Eminor3rd]

I've seen enough of Beltre playing against the sox over the last few years to know he's a damn good defensive 3b. I saw enough of polanco when he was with the tigers and I can't imagine he's gotten better the last 4 years now that he's 38 years old turning 39 in 2 months. I'm not saying polanco is bad defensively, hell he's own gold gloves, but no way he's better than Beltre in my eyes

 

How is this possibly a convincing argument that the metrics are wrong? You just said "I saw a guy play before and can't imagine he's gotten better the last four years" and passed it off like some kind of factual account of his defense. What if he got WAY better at reading pitches and positioning? What if continued practice made him an even more accurate thrower who made fewer mistakes? On the flipside, what if Beltre has just lost a step? Or maybe he's just having a worse year than usual on defense.

 

Conflicting pre-determined opinions are not anything like evidence against statistical data. In fact, they happen to be exactly why we NEED the statistical data. You do not see any of these guys even remotely close to enough to be able to have an accurate account of their defense -- and that's nothing personal, it's true of all of us. Our brains lie to us, especially in extreme cases and especially when we see very little of something and try to generalize. There are several legitimate criticisms and limitations of the current crop of defensive metrics, but "to my eyes that can't be true" is NOT one of them.

[Eminor3rd]

Did not say Dunn was vastly better, just said he was better. Tyler's AVG/OBP/SLG right now stand .053/.060/.021 points higher than last season; if that is not a vast improvement, I don't know what is.

 

 

Yes, and if balls hit to left field off KC pitchers are caught instead of going for doubles or runners hold at third instead of scoring on singles, that is valuable. Again, you're basically saying that WAR is bad because it doesn't seem to back up whatever feelings you already had. Whether or not Gordon is the third MVP isn't really the point. The defensive component of his WAR is the highest in baseball. That means he is doing something at an elite level and his WAR reflects that.

 

The bolded is a straw man argument that I can't deal with. I think you have a misconception that people just look at WAR and rank the players by that list. The people who use it acknowledge its imperfections, which is why other stats come in as well.

 

Great post with an excellent example of using numbers in context.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

How is this possibly a convincing argument that the metrics are wrong? You just said "I saw a guy play before and can't imagine he's gotten better the last four years" and passed it off like some kind of factual account of his defense. What if he got WAY better at reading pitches and positioning? What if continued practice made him an even more accurate thrower who made fewer mistakes? On the flipside, what if Beltre has just lost a step? Or maybe he's just having a worse year than usual on defense.

 

Conflicting pre-determined opinions are not anything like evidence against statistical data. In fact, they happen to be exactly why we NEED the statistical data. You do not see any of these guys even remotely close to enough to be able to have an accurate account of their defense -- and that's nothing personal, it's true of all of us. Our brains lie to us, especially in extreme cases and especially when we see very little of something and try to generalize. There are several legitimate criticisms and limitations of the current crop of defensive metrics, but "to my eyes that can't be true" is NOT one of them.

Yea because everyone knows guys improve defensively as they approach 40... Come on, you can't be serious with this. What is a pre-determined opinion any way? I have an opinion based on what I have seen. Have I seen everyone of the games that both of those guys have played over the past 4 years, no. Do I need to have seen every game in order to come up with an opinion of who the better defender is, no. In general, a guy is either a good defender or he isn't. This isn't hitting where guys become smarter, more confident, etc. as they age until their physical abilities fail them. Very rarely do guys make vast improvements or become drastically worse defenders from one year to the next.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Did not say Dunn was vastly better, just said he was better. Tyler's AVG/OBP/SLG right now stand .053/.060/.021 points higher than last season; if that is not a vast improvement, I don't know what is.

 

 

Yes, and if balls hit to left field off KC pitchers are caught instead of going for doubles or runners hold at third instead of scoring on singles, that is valuable. Again, you're basically saying that WAR is bad because it doesn't seem to back up whatever feelings you already had. Whether or not Gordon is the third MVP isn't really the point. The defensive component of his WAR is the highest in baseball. That means he is doing something at an elite level and his WAR reflects that.

 

The bolded is a straw man argument that I can't deal with. I think you have a misconception that people just look at WAR and rank the players by that list. The people who use it acknowledge its imperfections, which is why other stats come in as well.

If you think that a good defensive LF is so very important, why is the worst defensive OF typically put in LF? Why are guys that can't hack it in the infield moved to LF? Maybe you have unearthed some new discovery that the rest of baseball has missed. He's playing LF at an elite level, whoop-de-doo. It shouldn't result in the 2nd highest war in baseball when combined with his very average offensive numbers.

 

Regarding the use of WAR, just take a look at the discussions on this board and most articles analyzing the trades at the deadline. Nearly every one of them is using WAR and player salary as the baseline to evaluate a trade. They certainly are not acknowledging its imperfections when they say that a trade was better for team X because the guy they received has a surplus value of X based on his WAR. As I said, I have a huge issue with WAR serving as the baseline when I believe the defensive component is deeply flawed.

[Eminor3rd]

Yea because everyone knows guys improve defensively as they approach 40... Come on, you can't be serious with this. What is a pre-determined opinion any way? I have an opinion based on what I have seen. Have I seen everyone of the games that both of those guys have played over the past 4 years, no. Do I need to have seen every game in order to come up with an opinion of who the better defender is, no. In general, a guy is either a good defender or he isn't. This isn't hitting where guys become smarter, more confident, etc. as they age until their physical abilities fail them. Very rarely do guys make vast improvements or become drastically worse defenders from one year to the next.

 

1. I bet you've seen about 0.01% of the games they've played in over the last four years, and I would posit that is not anywhere in the range of enough information to have an opinion that is more reliable than all of the data from the most advanced publicly available statistical analyses of defensive value that currently exist. The concept of "this data must be wrong because it doesn't match up with what I already think" is completely illogical, especially when "what you already think" is based on a very small sample of non-professional observation that happened years ago.

 

2. Generalizations are useful for context, but outliers always exist. In terms of late-career improvement, they aren't even THAT rare. Jhonny Peralta jumps to mind immediately. Jose Bautista jumps to mind immediately.

 

3. Why does it make sense that hitters can get better with experience but defenders can't? Quickness declines just like bat speed declines, so why doesn't every player always peak at age 22?

[witesoxfan]

If we're still talking about Polanco v. Beltre, here's how that number breaks down:

 

Polanco 2013 - 0.1 double play runs, -7.3 range runs, 4.9 error runs, -2.4 UZR, -4.5 UZR/150

Beltre 2013 - -0.1 double play runs, -0.4 range runs, -0.7 error runs, -1.2 UZR, -1.4 UZR/150

 

So they were essentially equally good at turning double plays, Beltre showed superior range, and Polanco showed surer hands. If they had both played the same amount of time given the same exact fielding quality, Beltre would have been the superior defender.

 

That doesn't seem like an unfair summary to me.

[shysocks]

If you think that a good defensive LF is so very important, why is the worst defensive OF typically put in LF? Why are guys that can't hack it in the infield moved to LF? Maybe you have unearthed some new discovery that the rest of baseball has missed. He's playing LF at an elite level, whoop-de-doo. It shouldn't result in the 2nd highest war in baseball when combined with his very average offensive numbers.

First, read this, published a couple months ago. This is how even a left fielder can flex defensive value.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-o...-using-his-arm/

 

Second, his offensive numbers are not "very average."

American League: .255/.318/.394

Alex Gordon: .280/.356/.436

 

Regarding the use of WAR, just take a look at the discussions on this board and most articles analyzing the trades at the deadline. Nearly every one of them is using WAR and player salary as the baseline to evaluate a trade. They certainly are not acknowledging its imperfections when they say that a trade was better for team X because the guy they received has a surplus value of X based on his WAR. As I said, I have a huge issue with WAR serving as the baseline when I believe the defensive component is deeply flawed.

The article I linked above is one of MANY I have read that references error bars or something like them. Jonah Keri published a piece on Grantland today that includes the phrase "given the vagaries of defensive metrics." I'm sure you have examples to the contrary but I can't really be held responsible for those.

 

And as far as I can tell, you believe the defensive component of WAR is deeply flawed because you believe the defensive component of WAR is deeply flawed. Whether it is or isn't, it's definitely a lot more reliable than saying, "That guy can't be better than this guy because I know it's he's not."

Edited August 13, 2014 by shysocks

[Eminor3rd]

If you think that a good defensive LF is so very important, why is the worst defensive OF typically put in LF? Why are guys that can't hack it in the infield moved to LF? Maybe you have unearthed some new discovery that the rest of baseball has missed. He's playing LF at an elite level, whoop-de-doo. It shouldn't result in the 2nd highest war in baseball when combined with his very average offensive numbers.

 

Again, something based entirely on your preconceived notion of the defensive value. The word "should" is key here. There are a lot of things that I think "should" be the case but simply aren't. Is it not possible that you are undervaluing defense? Further, is it not possible that all of us were undervaluing defense, but that some breakthrough is analysis taught us something new?

 

The answer is that is IS possible, of course. But let me be clear: I'm not saying that there ISN'T some huge flaw with this stuff that makes it all useless and wrong. But no one has found it yet -- lots are trying and these are the current "state-of-the-art" that have been produced through all the scrutiny. You may be right and they may be wrong, but if you're going to make that claim, you need EVIDENCE that you're right, because there's plenty of evidence to the contrary. It's the very reason the numbers are being taken seriously in the first place.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 5m

Jose Abreu has gone 56 plate appearances w/o a HR (July 29). Over that span he has a .319/.429/.404 slash w/ four 2Bs, three RBIs.

[southsider2k5]

First, read this, published a couple months ago. This is how even a left fielder can flex defensive value.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-value-o...-using-his-arm/

 

Second, his offensive numbers are not "very average."

American League: .225/.318/.394

Alex Gordon: .280/.356/.436

 

 

The article I linked above is one of MANY I have read that references error bars or something like them. Jonah Keri published a piece on Grantland today that includes the phrase "given the vagaries of defensive metrics." I'm sure you have examples to the contrary but I can't really be held responsible for those.

 

And as far as I can tell, you believe the defensive component of WAR is deeply flawed because you believe the defensive component of WAR is deeply flawed. Whether it is or isn't, it's definitely a lot more reliable than saying, "That guy can't be better than this guy because I know it's he's not."

 

That is the average LF this year? Holy crap that is terrible!

[shysocks]

That is the average LF this year? Holy crap that is terrible!

No, sorry, I should have been clearer and I also shouldn't have made a gigantic typo. Those were the numbers for all AL hitters, and it's actually .255/.318/.394, not .225/.318/.394.

 

For left fielders, it's not all that different. .255/.322/.402