Jose Abreu general discussion

[southsider2k5]

I like this, but again, I think the numbers you're looking for are wOBA and wRC+

 

When I watch Abreu I usually admire his HTFDHHt+ (How the f*** did he hit that)

[Jerksticks]

When I watch Abreu I usually admire his HTFDHHt+ (How the f*** did he hit that)

Haha yea me too. Can't believe he only has a 98.6

[Eminor3rd]

If you want to look at who the most productive hitters in the game are, and solely who the most productive hitters in the game are (without considering base running or position or anything like that), we should use wOBA (weighted on-base average) and wRC+ (weighted runs created plus). It's doing essentially what JerkSticks wanted, but it's combining it into one statistic and weighting everything else appropriately as well. wOBA will take all of those fancy numbers and combine them and spit them out into a number that will appear similar to batting average or on-base percentage so that we have some frame of reference for measurement in our mind. wRC will use the information we receive from wOBA and create a context neutral amount of runs that this player would produce; once we come to this number, we then create wRC+ which compares it to the league average while controlling for park effects. That last point is an important one.

 

So, without further adieu:

 

wOBA:

1. Jose Abreu - .420

2. everybody else (Victor Martinez .408)

 

wRC+

1. Jose Abreu - 170

2. everybody else (Mike Trout, 169)

 

Suffice to say, we can safely conclude that Jose Abreu has been the best hitter in the major leagues this year. That's pretty awesome.

 

I'm reposting this for emphasis. I hope that everyone takes minute to get familiar with wRC+ because it's just so, so awesome. IMO, it's maybe the best stat in existence right now, in terms of answering an important more accurately than any others.

 

To the poster named Jose Abreu, with regards to your inclination that BA/SLG should be weighted higher than OBP/baserunning: the beauty of wRC+/wOBA/other offensive inputs into WAR is that they are all linear weights-based statistics, which means that their single most tremendous advantage is that they objectively weigh run values across offensive events with incredible precision. One of the big advantages of these statistics is you don't have to wonder how many times a guy needs to get on base to make for his lack of homeruns, because it uses inputs that are based on exactly how many runs are produced through each of the events, and then scales it all to league average as a comparison point.

 

Your question, actually, illustrates the great flaw with OPS -- it treats a point of OBP and SLG equally, when in reality, the values of both are not only significantly different, but they each fluctuate all the time based on the changing run environment. If you're citing OPS, you should really be citing wRC+. They answer the same question, wRC+ is just way more accurate.

 

Seriously, anyone who wants to have an informed opinion on how sabermetrics likes to value offense -- whether that opinion is positive or negative -- should read up on linear weights in baseball stats because they represent what is, IMO, the biggest and most important breakthrough in public baseball analysis since 2000.

Edited September 16, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[chw42]

I'm reposting this for emphasis. I hope that everyone takes minute to get familiar with wRC+ because it's just so, so awesome. IMO, it's maybe the best stat in existence right now, in terms of answering an important more accurately than any others.

 

To the poster named Jose Abreu, with regards to your inclination that BA/SLG should be weighted higher than OBP/baserunning: the beauty of wRC+/wOBA/other offensive inputs into WAR is that they are all linear weights-based statistics, which means that their single most tremendous advantage is that they objectively weigh run values across offensive events with incredible precision. One of the big advantages of these statistics is you don't have to wonder how many times a guy needs to get on base to make for his lack of homeruns, because it uses inputs that are based on exactly how many runs are produced through each of the events, and then scales it all to league average as a comparison point.

 

Your question, actually, illustrates the great flaw with OPS -- it treats a point of OBP and SLG equally, when in reality, the values of both are not only significantly different, but they each fluctuate all the time based on the changing run environment. If you're citing OPS, you should really be citing wRC+. They answer the same question, wRC+ is just way more accurate.

 

Seriously, anyone who wants to have an informed opinion on how sabermetrics likes to value offense -- whether that opinion is positive or negative -- should read up on linear weights in baseball stats because they represent what is, IMO, the biggest and most important breakthrough in public baseball analysis since 2000.

 

It's also an incredibly easy concept to grasp.

 

[southsider2k5]

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 2m

 

There are teams that passed on Jose Abreu because they thought he was a 4A player. He's the MLB leader in OPS.

[iamshack]

I'm reposting this for emphasis. I hope that everyone takes minute to get familiar with wRC+ because it's just so, so awesome. IMO, it's maybe the best stat in existence right now, in terms of answering an important more accurately than any others.

 

To the poster named Jose Abreu, with regards to your inclination that BA/SLG should be weighted higher than OBP/baserunning: the beauty of wRC+/wOBA/other offensive inputs into WAR is that they are all linear weights-based statistics, which means that their single most tremendous advantage is that they objectively weigh run values across offensive events with incredible precision. One of the big advantages of these statistics is you don't have to wonder how many times a guy needs to get on base to make for his lack of homeruns, because it uses inputs that are based on exactly how many runs are produced through each of the events, and then scales it all to league average as a comparison point.

 

Your question, actually, illustrates the great flaw with OPS -- it treats a point of OBP and SLG equally, when in reality, the values of both are not only significantly different, but they each fluctuate all the time based on the changing run environment. If you're citing OPS, you should really be citing wRC+. They answer the same question, wRC+ is just way more accurate.

 

Seriously, anyone who wants to have an informed opinion on how sabermetrics likes to value offense -- whether that opinion is positive or negative -- should read up on linear weights in baseball stats because they represent what is, IMO, the biggest and most important breakthrough in public baseball analysis since 2000.

I'd like to applaud you and Wite, among a few others, for taking the time to educate us all, and not being snarky or elitist in doing so.

 

[Eminor3rd]

I'd like to applaud you and Wite, among a few others, for taking the time to educate us all, and not being snarky or elitist in doing so.

 

Thanks man, though I personally can't take credit for never being snarky

[Jake]

In WAR, everything is "weighted" according to how many runs it is worth. Instead of deciding what parts of the game are most important, it is as close to objective as possible - your baserunning mistake/inability is worth x runs, so that's how many runs less value you have

[southsider2k5]

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 2m

 

There are teams that passed on Jose Abreu because they thought he was a 4A player. He's the MLB leader in OPS.

 

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 45m

 

White Sox didn't have any trouble RT @StatMagician Which just shows that it's still tough to evaluate international ball players, right?

[Steve9347]

Jose Abreu very well should win Rookie of the Year and MVP.

[flavum]

Jose Abreu very well should win Rookie of the Year and MVP.

 

Trout will win. Abreu will be top 5.

[whitesoxfan99]

Jose Abreu very well should win MVP.

 

No

[Steve9347]

No

He's hitting 30 points higher than Mike Trout. Defense deshmense, he's been better.

[Eminor3rd]

Jose Abreu very well should win Rookie of the Year and MVP.

 

RotY is a mortal lock, but I can't squint and see any argument that he's been better than Mike Trout for MVP. Their production is close to identical offensively, but one is a plus baserunner and plays CF. It's pretty cut-and0dried.

 

It is frustrating that we have two guys who are top-3 type contenders for the best two awards but that really they aren't going to and shouldn't win. But try to look at it in a positive way -- we have two ELITE players.

Edited September 16, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[flavum]

RotY is a mortal lock, but I can't squint and see any argument that he's been better than Mike Trout for MVP. Their production is close to identical offensively, but one is a plus baserunner and plays CF. It's pretty cut-and0dried.

 

It is frustrating that we have two guys who are top-3 type contenders for the best two awards but that really they aren't going to and shouldn't win. But try to look at it in a positive way -- we have two ELITE players.

 

How about the Sox make a splash this winter, go out and win 92 next season, and sweep the awards--Cy, MVP, ROY, Mgr, Exec? That would be fun.

[iamshack]

How about the Sox make a splash this winter, go out and win 92 next season, and sweep the awards--Cy, MVP, ROY, Mgr, Exec? That would be fun.

We are just so top heavy...we need to continue to add some depth and hopefully it comes primarily from the position player side...

[LDF]

Just because I love to look at them, Jose Abreu's half splits:

 

1st half: .292/.342/.630/.972

2nd half: .374/.451/.554 /1.005

 

Jose Abreu also 21 HRs on the road and 14 at home.

 

Jesus H Christ!!! this is a 1 of a lifetime player.

 

[bmags]

Just because I love to look at them, Jose Abreu's half splits:

 

1st half: .292/.342/.630/.972

2nd half: .374/.451/.554 /1.005

 

Jose Abreu also 21 HRs on the road and 14 at home.

 

WOW

[Jerksticks]

WOW

You said it man. The Sox can win the World Series next year if they supplement this elite top of the roster we have. We have Babe Ruth & Randy Johnson.

[Quin]

If he keeps the average and OBP from the second half with his power from the first half, he'll have one of the most legendary seasons.

[ShandyMan]

If he keeps the average and OBP from the second half with his power from the first half, he'll have one of the most legendary seasons.

 

I'd gladly take 25-30 HR with him hitting the way he is the 2nd half, than 1st half with 40 HR.

[southsider2k5]

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 4m

 

Jose Abreu this season: Pre All-Star break: 50 XBH, 44 singles, 22 BB/82 K Post All-Star break: 22 XBH, 57 singles, 27 BB/47 K

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

The Alex Gordon conversation has come full circle. This was my exact point when I stated that a LF's defensive ability should not swing a guy with Gordon's offensive numbers into the second highest WAR in MLB for the season, even if he is an elite defender. Frankly, LF defense just isn't that important, especially relative to positions up the middle (C, SS, 2B, and CF). If it was, you wouldn't find so many hacks playing LF. And the argument that they are bolstering their offense by putting a bad defender out there somewhat surprisingly isn't true either according to the average offensive statistics for AL LF posted by someone earlier in this thread. So it seems Gordon's WAR is inflated by 1. left fielders that as a whole can't play defense and 2. are putting up pedestrian offensive numbers.

I know this conversation is dated, but I just now stumbled across this fangraphs article below. I guess I wasn't the only one questioning Gordon's true WAR value and I'd say I nailed it with the last two points in my previous post. I'd still take Abreu any day over Gordon even if he ended the season with a lower WAR.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/alex-gordon...-field-defense/

 

[flavum]

Any chance the Sox will try to get ahead of the arbitration opt-out this winter and try to re-negotiate a longer deal?

[southsider2k5]

Any chance the Sox will try to get ahead of the arbitration opt-out this winter and try to re-negotiate a longer deal?

 

No reason to do so. Nothing can happen until after his third year. Realistically, it probably won't be worth it for Abreu to even worry about it until after his forth year, unless he can put himself into the Miguel Cabrera/Mike Trout stratosphere of hitters.