Jose Abreu general discussion

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

10 straight PAs in which he reaches base is short of The Big Hurt's record by 5

Just to clarify that's the Sox record . ML record is 17 by Earl Averill, Jr. (1962) and Piggy Ward (1893).

[iamshack]

Dare I say Triple Crown?

[Dick Allen]

Smh at this article

http://m.us.wsj.com/articles/jose-abreu-th...514931?mobile=y

 

what's the point of writing this

 

Axe to grind?

I was at a game earlier this year where he hit a home run that landed in the first couple of rows. It was against about a 35 mph breeze, so I guess it counts as cheap, but that cheapie was kilt.

 

This article is funny. It says 13-30 are cheap, but if you go to his home run tracker, 18-31 went over 400 feet.

Edited August 2, 2014 by Dick Allen

[LDF]

Dare I say Triple Crown?

 

even if he doesn't with the triple crown, if he was up in the top of it, it will be impressive.

 

 

Meanwhile, only two of Abreu's homers qualified as "no-doubt" home runs

 

btw does anyone know to this hit tracker this idiot is spouting about??? this is a question

for out stat people who I trust more and I will put up against this asshole.

Edited August 2, 2014 by LDF

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If I may, I'm repeating a post I just made in yesterdays winners thread so more people see it.

 

That record (56) is one of the hardest to break considering such a hot hitter would be walked a lot. Besides the 21 game streak and 10 AB streak he also has a hit in 39 of the last 40 games. He had that 18 game hitting streak went 0/4 against Seattle on July 5th then started the current streak . Abreu was taken out in the 9th for pinch runner Leury Garcia who then took his place in the lineup and got 2 AB's and got a hit. The Sox did not score in the 9th and eventually lost in the 14th inning 3-2. If he wasn't pinch run for it's possible we're looking at a 40 game hitting streak now. Imagine the media frenzy once a player gets to 40. The closest anyone has come to DiMaggio's record is 1978 when Pete Rose had a 44 game streak and that was a big deal since even 40 game streaks are quite rare. I remember it. BTW the Sox record is 24 ,I believe ,by Carlos Lee.

 

After his 0/4 Abreu was hitting .276. He's now at .310 http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/mlb/gameda..._1&mode=box link to boxscore.

 

 

P.S. When Joe DiMaggio played for the San Francisco Seals of the Pacific Coast League he had a 61 game hitting streak with a total of 104 hits — five games longer than his Major League record. Source : Baseball-Almanac.com

Edited August 2, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[ptatc]

If I may, I'm repeating a post I just made in yesterdays winners thread so more people see it.

 

That record (56) is one of the hardest to break considering such a hot hitter would be walked a lot. Besides the 21 game streak and 10 AB streak he also has a hit in 39 of the last 40 games. He had that 18 game hitting streak went 0/4 against Seattle on July 5th then started the current streak . Abreu was taken out in the 9th for pinch runner Leury Garcia who then took his place in the lineup and got 2 AB's and got a hit. The Sox did not score in the 9th and eventually lost in the 14th inning 3-2. If he wasn't pinch run for it's possible we're looking at a 40 game hitting streak now. Imagine the media frenzy once a player gets to 40. The closest anyone has come to DiMaggio's record is 1978 when Pete Rose had a 44 game streak and that was a big deal since even 40 game streaks are quite rare. I remember it. BTW the Sox record is 24 ,I believe ,by Carlos Lee.

 

After his 0/4 Abreu was hitting .276. He's now at .310 http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/mlb/gameda..._1&mode=box link to boxscore.

 

 

P.S. When Joe DiMaggio played for the San Francisco Seals of the Pacific Coast League he had a 61 game hitting streak with a total of 104 hits — five games longer than his Major League record. Source : Baseball-Almanac.com

Iwas working with the Brewers when Molitor had a 39 game streak. A local burger chain sold 39 cent burgers.

[BigHurt3515]

0 hits, what a bum....

 

 

[hi8is]

0 hits, what a bum....

And the pretentious ass got on-base twice still. What a bum indeed.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

how flawed is WAR when Abreu is at 4.0 and guys like Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon are 4.5+? I realize Abreu is hurt by his baserunning/defense but his offense is SO much better than those three guys that there's no way their baserunning/defense superiority should overcome Abreu's immense run producing capabilities. Are the White Sox really only 4 wins better with Abreu rather than a guy like Garrett Jones playing 1B?

[witesoxfan]

how flawed is WAR when Abreu is at 4.0 and guys like Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon are 4.5+? I realize Abreu is hurt by his baserunning/defense but his offense is SO much better than those three guys that there's no way their baserunning/defense superiority should overcome Abreu's immense run producing capabilities. Are the White Sox really only 4 wins better with Abreu rather than a guy like Garrett Jones playing 1B?

 

Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon all play semi-premium to premium defensive positions and they play it incredibly well while being fairly to very productive hitters to boot. It's not flawed whatsoever.

 

In theory, yes, the White Sox are only 4 games better. Much of that depends upon context, which WAR removes from the equation. Still, I feel the difference between 54-58 and 50-62 is incredibly signficant.

[cabiness42]

how flawed is WAR when Abreu is at 4.0 and guys like Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon are 4.5+? I realize Abreu is hurt by his baserunning/defense but his offense is SO much better than those three guys that there's no way their baserunning/defense superiority should overcome Abreu's immense run producing capabilities. Are the White Sox really only 4 wins better with Abreu rather than a guy like Garrett Jones playing 1B?

 

(1) OBP contributes a little bit more to offensive value than SLG, and right now Abreu's SLG is what is off the charts. His OBP is good, but not elite.

 

(2) Abreu has played in fewer games than the other three, and WAR is a cumulative stat.

 

Also, none of Donaldson, Heyward or Gordon were available for the Sox to sign for 6/$68M

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon all play semi-premium to premium defensive positions and they play it incredibly well while being fairly to very productive hitters to boot. It's not flawed whatsoever.

 

In theory, yes, the White Sox are only 4 games better. Much of that depends upon context, which WAR removes from the equation. Still, I feel the difference between 54-58 and 50-62 is incredibly signficant.

I think the question is more like "is good defense at a premium position just as important in the eyes of WAR as elite offensive production is" ? Is the equation equally balanced when some people might think elite production in the lineup batting 3rd or 4th is more important than playing elite defense at a prime position. Why should any player's WAR be less when they play a position that it isn't necessary to have speed or not necessary when you're a big man crushing the ball. Seems that premium position players get more perks for contributing in all areas when baseball wasn't built for that at some positions.

Edited August 4, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Jose Abreu]

Donaldson is hitting .243, Heyward's power numbers are 9/43, Gordon's is 9/47... sure they play good defense but their offense isn't very good (outside of Donaldson's HR/RBI numbers).

[cabiness42]

I think the question is more like "is good defense at a premium position just as important in the eyes of WAR as elite offensive production is" ? Is the equation equally balanced when some people might think elite production in the lineup batting 3rd or 4th is more important than playing elite defense at a prime position.

 

Offensive value is measured in terms of "runs created" and defensive value is measured in terms of "runs saved" and the two values carry equal weight. A player who creates 40 offensive runs and saves 0 defensive runs is equal in value to a player who creates 20 offensive runs and saves 20 defensive runs.

[lasttriptotulsa]

how flawed is WAR when Abreu is at 4.0 and guys like Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon are 4.5+? I realize Abreu is hurt by his baserunning/defense but his offense is SO much better than those three guys that there's no way their baserunning/defense superiority should overcome Abreu's immense run producing capabilities. Are the White Sox really only 4 wins better with Abreu rather than a guy like Garrett Jones playing 1B?

 

Another thing to remember is that WAR is essence a counting stat. It accumulates as the season goes. Abreu spent 15 days on the DL costing him 13 or 14 games played. None of those other three have been on the DL this year. If Abreu had not gotten injured and played those games missed around the same level as the rest of the season, his WAR would be around 4.5. And as Wite said, those other three are plus defenders at more defensive minded positions than first base. That's the big difference. It's not that Abreu is necessarily a bad defender, but he is in a sense penalized for playing 1B from the get go.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Josh Donaldson, Jason Heyward, and Alex Gordon all play semi-premium to premium defensive positions and they play it incredibly well while being fairly to very productive hitters to boot. It's not flawed whatsoever.

 

In theory, yes, the White Sox are only 4 games better. Much of that depends upon context, which WAR removes from the equation. Still, I feel the difference between 54-58 and 50-62 is incredibly signficant.

I don't see any earth shattering offensive numbers from gordon this season. In fact, his numbers are very average for a LF. Yes, he plays a great defensive OF but give me the guy with the 200+ higher OPS over the great defensive outfielder any day. Would you trade Abreu right now for any of those guys? To me, Abreu is much harder to replace than any of those guys and isn't that what WAR ultimately measures? How else can anyone explain the improvement in the White Sox offense from #29 in runs scored last year to #7 this year? Adding Eaton and a better season from Conor has certainly helped but the '13 club also had a productive Rios/Garcia and De Aza.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Another thing to remember is that WAR is essence a counting stat. It accumulates as the season goes. Abreu spent 15 days on the DL costing him 13 or 14 games played. None of those other three have been on the DL this year. If Abreu had not gotten injured and played those games missed around the same level as the rest of the season, his WAR would be around 4.5. And as Wite said, those other three are plus defenders at more defensive minded positions than first base. That's the big difference. It's not that Abreu is necessarily a bad defender, but he is in a sense penalized for playing 1B from the get go.

I don't see how LF (Gordon) is a more defensive-minded position than 1B? Guys are moved out to LF to hide because they can stick (similar to 1B). If we were talking CF, SS, or C then that's a different animal altogether. None of these guys play a premium defensive position in my mind (3B is probably the closest out of the three)

[Jake]

You guys have it. Those guys are kicking absolute ass defensively, not just good but elite defense at positions that are far more consequential defensively than first base. Even a good defensive 1B will struggle to contribute meaningfully at 1B and the expectations are higher offensively.

 

To think about why it is important to move the offensive bar per position, just think about this - if, say, Anthony Rizzo played left field, the Cubs could have had him AND Abreu. If Donaldson played first base, they don't get to play Brandon Moss. If Trout plays 1B, they don't get Pujols. If Trout plays corner OF full time, they might not be able to have Hamilton.

 

When you build around a non-1B, that leaves the option open to you to bring in a 1B to put your offense over the hump. When you have a 1B and nothing else, you have to find guys that both excel defensively and hit. That's harder.

 

And that doesn't mean your 1B is valueless or that we screwed up by getting an amazing 1B, but it means that he has to do with his bat what almost every other position does by combining their bat, glove, and legs.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Offensive value is measured in terms of "runs created" and defensive value is measured in terms of "runs saved" and the two values carry equal weight. A player who creates 40 offensive runs and saves 0 defensive runs is equal in value to a player who creates 20 offensive runs and saves 20 defensive runs.

Yes but we also know that runs created in baseball is a lot easier to understand or quantify then runs saved on defense. If Abreu was a butcher at 1st he'd save a lot less runs but because it isn't a premium position he doesn't get as much credit as other infielders or OF's do for using their speed in things like range. Basically he gets no points for playing a position that isn't deemed as important yet he get's more fielding chances and chances to make mistakes than other positions Now we all know catching perfect throws to 1st isn't that hard so I understand it to a degree. The formula in general works but not if you consider many think elite offense is more important and I am a huge advocate of good defense but it just seems like he's penalized for being a typical large 1st baseman who isn't fast. The position evolved that way and playing it well shouldn't be a detriment to a stat like WAR .

 

Of course I'm not a saber guy and I often get lost when I hear explanations of these things because it seems like you need some knowledge of advanced math to understand some of these things .

Edited August 4, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Jake]

I don't see how LF (Gordon) is a more defensive-minded position than 1B? Guys are moved out to LF to hide because they can stick (similar to 1B). If we were talking CF, SS, or C then that's a different animal altogether. None of these guys play a premium defensive position in my mind (3B is probably the closest out of the three)

 

1B is far and away the least important position. No position compares to it. Since 2000, there has only been one season in which a 1B has contributed a full win above average (it's harder for me to access the WAR value). That was Pujols in 2007. That defensive season was more than twice as valuable than the next closer in those 15 years. Out of all the 1B players to play a qualifying amount since 2000, only 25 times has a 1B had a season in which their defensive contribution was above the average player (of any position).

 

They don't pull this stuff out of thin air. Each play is evaluated for its difficulty and its consequence. Making a very difficult play adds to your defensive value, especially if that play is likely to pay dividends in terms of saving runs. 1B are just not tested defensively nearly as often as any other position and the plays they make tend to be of little consequence. They never throw - that's a big deal. 1B rarely have to make defensive plays in which they throw; that's the big difference between them and a 3B (that, and the amount of RH vs LH hitters).

 

Another way to think about it - how many players are good at a position that isn't 1B but would be bad at 1B? While not ideal, I'd argue that Adam Eaton would be fine at 1B. That's because he's a baseball player who knows how to catch throws. It's nice to have a tall guy, but that's okay because he'd make up for it by actually being mobile. The average CF, SS, or C is going to be far better at 1B than any 1B would be at those positions.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1B is far and away the least important position. No position compares to it. Since 2000, there has only been one season in which a 1B has contributed a full win above average (it's harder for me to access the WAR value). That was Pujols in 2007. That defensive season was more than twice as valuable than the next closer in those 15 years. Out of all the 1B players to play a qualifying amount since 2000, only 25 times has a 1B had a season in which their defensive contribution was above the average player (of any position).

 

They don't pull this stuff out of thin air. Each play is evaluated for its difficulty and its consequence. Making a very difficult play adds to your defensive value, especially if that play is likely to pay dividends in terms of saving runs. 1B are just not tested defensively nearly as often as any other position and the plays they make tend to be of little consequence. They never throw - that's a big deal. 1B rarely have to make defensive plays in which they throw; that's the big difference between them and a 3B (that, and the amount of RH vs LH hitters).

 

Another way to think about it - how many players are good at a position that isn't 1B but would be bad at 1B? While not ideal, I'd argue that Adam Eaton would be fine at 1B. That's because he's a baseball player who knows how to catch throws. It's nice to have a tall guy, but that's okay because he'd make up for it by actually being mobile. The average CF, SS, or C is going to be far better at 1B than any 1B would be at those positions.

It's just that now WAR is being viewed by the media and the casual and even a somewhat knowledgeable fan like me who isn't saber smart as the next new thing when it comes to determining who is better or more valuable . Maybe that's the problem If you think Donaldson is just as valuable as Abreu or more so would you trade them for each other ? I wouldn't because elite offense no matter the position you play is much harder to find than elite defense at a premium position.

Edited August 4, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[lasttriptotulsa]

I don't see how LF (Gordon) is a more defensive-minded position than 1B? Guys are moved out to LF to hide because they can stick (similar to 1B). If we were talking CF, SS, or C then that's a different animal altogether. None of these guys play a premium defensive position in my mind (3B is probably the closest out of the three)

 

Just as a reference, here are the positional adjustments that baseball reference uses.

 

1.C: +10 runs

2.SS: +7.5 runs

3.2B: +3 runs

4.CF: +2.5 runs

5.3b: +2 runs

6.RF: -7.5 runs

7.LF: -7.5 runs

8.1B: -10 runs

9.DH: -15 runs

 

As you can see, while LF and RF are not premium positions defensively that are more of a premium than 1B.

[Jake]

So there's two things making Donaldson seem more valuable. First is the defense, like we covered. A third baseman has much more control of run prevention - kind of. A really bad defensive 1B will have more negative value than anybody, because they can screw up just about every infield out. However, each play is measured against the "average" defender. The "average" 1B makes almost all the same plays that a great one does. That's not nearly as true of 3B and really not true of OF.

 

Next is how good hitters are at a given position. The average 1B this year has a 111 wRC+ (was 110 last year). The average 3B this year is 101 wRC+ (was 97 last year). While in the recent past LF was a place to stash your guys with barely better than 1B defensive ability to get their bat in the lineup (average LF batter was as high as 110 wRC+ in early 2000s), today it's a place where the average LF bat is just an average bat (100 wRC+ this year, 99 last). On a side note, it interests me how poor the average DH is this year - 101 wRC+ compared to 110 wRC+ last year and a peak 120 wRC+ in 2002.

 

So even disregarding how good he defends his position, Abreu is graded on a curve. wRC+ presumes that 100 is average. However, 111 is average for 1B. 101 is average at 3B. That means the expectation for Abreu's offense is 10% higher than a 3B and LF. 25% higher than SS!

 

Another way to think about it is to look at it from the perspective of the non-1B. Look at Derek Jeter. His career WAR is 74.3. He's also a career negative value defensively as a shortstop, where usually bad shortstops end up with positive values just because of the position's difficulty. He has a career 120 wRC+. If you took away the positional adjustment to the way we look at his offense, or changed his defensive position to 1B, he's a slightly enhanced Paul Konerko, meaning Jeter becomes more of a 40-45 WAR player. That means not a Hall of Famer. Should Jeter be a Hall of Famer? The answer hinges on whether you think players should be graded on a curve based on their defensive position.

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

So there's two things making Donaldson seem more valuable. First is the defense, like we covered. A third baseman has much more control of run prevention - kind of. A really bad defensive 1B will have more negative value than anybody, because they can screw up just about every infield out. However, each play is measured against the "average" defender. The "average" 1B makes almost all the same plays that a great one does. That's not nearly as true of 3B and really not true of OF.

 

Next is how good hitters are at a given position. The average 1B this year has a 111 wRC+ (was 110 last year). The average 3B this year is 101 wRC+ (was 97 last year). While in the recent past LF was a place to stash your guys with barely better than 1B defensive ability to get their bat in the lineup (average LF batter was as high as 110 wRC+ in early 2000s), today it's a place where the average LF bat is just an average bat (100 wRC+ this year, 99 last). On a side note, it interests me how poor the average DH is this year - 101 wRC+ compared to 110 wRC+ last year and a peak 120 wRC+ in 2002.

 

So even disregarding how good he defends his position, Abreu is graded on a curve. wRC+ presumes that 100 is average. However, 111 is average for 1B. 101 is average at 3B. That means the expectation for Abreu's offense is 10% higher than a 3B and LF. 25% higher than SS!

 

Another way to think about it is to look at it from the perspective of the non-1B. Look at Derek Jeter. His career WAR is 74.3. He's also a career negative value defensively as a shortstop, where usually bad shortstops end up with positive values just because of the position's difficulty. He has a career 120 wRC+. If you took away the positional adjustment to the way we look at his offense, or changed his defensive position to 1B, he's a slightly enhanced Paul Konerko, meaning Jeter becomes more of a 40-45 WAR player. That means not a Hall of Famer. Should Jeter be a Hall of Famer? The answer hinges on whether you think players should be graded on a curve based on their defensive position.

would you trade abreu for donaldson (money aside)?

[southsider2k5]

would you trade abreu for donaldson (money aside)?

 

I think the more accurate question is does anyone really believe that if you switched Donaldson's and Abreu's exact preformances this year to the opposite teams, if there would be no change at all on their respective teams. If the answer is no, the stat is flawed.