Jose Abreu general discussion

[witesoxfan]

1. Who are these people? Folks that work for fangraphs? BMLB GMs? Just trying to understand the definition of "those involved in sabermetrics." It is cited endlessly as the primary criterion in player performance evaluation, and very rarely used as a "complimentary" statistic in conjunction with other statistics by the countless articles I have read on ESPN, SB Nation, etc. as well as forums on this site.

 

2. How is it pre-conceived that De Aza is poor defensive LF? I have watched the guy play the position all season. According to the link, he's actually an ABOVE average defensive LF. Just sayin

 

1. Show me these people that use WAR are their primary criterion. If you read and follow FanGraphs at all, any citation of WAR is backed heavily by supporting arguments showing why a player's WAR (or UZR or what have you). If there are people who say "so and so is better because his WAR is better," I will not agree with them until they make an argument supporting that assertation. But if you ask me who I'd prefer between Abreu and Gordon, I'm probably not going to use WAR at all to justify who I think the Sox should take.

 

2. He may be a bit bird brained out there, but he's still a talented player. This suggests that his arm is weak, he has above average range, but he doesn't have sure hands out there. Given his skill set - above average speed with shaky hands and a weak arm - I don't think the assertion is far off, especially since this has been the type of player he's been since joining the White Sox as a full time player. For all intents and purposes, he's an average to slightly above average defensive player from a quality perspective. It also suggests that, as the #11 overall defensive player in LF, that teams are putting bad defensive players in LF, likely in an attempt to bolster their offense.

[iamshack]

For whatever reason, De Aza has always been terrible at going back on the ball, whether in center or left. Most of the balls he gets a glove on and drops, at least from my observations, were balls he was going back on.

[Eminor3rd]

For whatever reason, De Aza has always been terrible at going back on the ball, whether in center or left. Most of the balls he gets a glove on and drops, at least from my observations, were balls he was going back on.

 

You may be right, but I think that all of us should accept the fact that our ability to judge a player's range is very, very limited. It's extremely hard to tell if another player would or should have caught any particular ball -- we almost never see their jumps and cannot, with any degree of accuracy, judge the distance player actually had to run. What he CAN see are the obvious screw-ups and therefore we're naturally inclined to over-represent them in our minds. I think this is the stuff that we need the data MOST for, because these measurements are much more accurate than our TV perceptions.

[Kyyle23]

For whatever reason, De Aza has always been terrible at going back on the ball, whether in center or left. Most of the balls he gets a glove on and drops, at least from my observations, were balls he was going back on.

 

i agree with this. He gets a bad initial read, and instead of charging to where he is supposed to be, he drifts to the spot and tries to make a jump catch. Coming from my limited experience playing baseball and softball(compared to a professional of course), this ends bad very frequently

[iamshack]

You may be right, but I think that all of us should accept the fact that our ability to judge a player's range is very, very limited. It's extremely hard to tell if another player would or should have caught any particular ball -- we almost never see their jumps and cannot, with any degree of accuracy, judge the distance player actually had to run. What he CAN see are the obvious screw-ups and therefore we're naturally inclined to over-represent them in our minds. I think this is the stuff that we need the data MOST for, because these measurements are much more accurate than our TV perceptions.

Oh I agree. I'm not disputing any of the data. I think the data reflects what I see with my eyes. If he could go back on the ball with any degree of skill, I think we would see that the data would reflect better upon him. He certainly is not a terrible defender, but many people believe he is because of that deficiency and tendency. If he could go back on the ball more adequately, I think the data would show him to be a very good defender.

[southsider2k5]

For whatever reason, De Aza has always been terrible at going back on the ball, whether in center or left. Most of the balls he gets a glove on and drops, at least from my observations, were balls he was going back on.

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Not sure if you're agreeing or disagreeing, but just to clarify my statement -- I'm claiming that hitting and defense are both very "mental."

There is certainly a mental aspect to both but the mental aspect to hitting is a much greater factor than it is to playing defense. I'm not sure how this is even debateable.

Edited August 14, 2014 by JUSTgottaBELIEVE

[witesoxfan]

There is certainly a mental aspect to both but the mental aspect to hitting is a much greater factor than it is to playing defense. I'm not sure how this is even debateable.

 

If we are referencing mental with regards to positioning, then it's still quite important.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1. Show me these people that use WAR are their primary criterion. If you read and follow FanGraphs at all, any citation of WAR is backed heavily by supporting arguments showing why a player's WAR (or UZR or what have you). If there are people who say "so and so is better because his WAR is better," I will not agree with them until they make an argument supporting that assertation. But if you ask me who I'd prefer between Abreu and Gordon, I'm probably not going to use WAR at all to justify who I think the Sox should take.

 

2. He may be a bit bird brained out there, but he's still a talented player. This suggests that his arm is weak, he has above average range, but he doesn't have sure hands out there. Given his skill set - above average speed with shaky hands and a weak arm - I don't think the assertion is far off, especially since this has been the type of player he's been since joining the White Sox as a full time player. For all intents and purposes, he's an average to slightly above average defensive player from a quality perspective. It also suggests that, as the #11 overall defensive player in LF, that teams are putting bad defensive players in LF, likely in an attempt to bolster their offense.

The Alex Gordon conversation has come full circle. This was my exact point when I stated that a LF's defensive ability should not swing a guy with Gordon's offensive numbers into the second highest WAR in MLB for the season, even if he is an elite defender. Frankly, LF defense just isn't that important, especially relative to positions up the middle (C, SS, 2B, and CF). If it was, you wouldn't find so many hacks playing LF. And the argument that they are bolstering their offense by putting a bad defender out there somewhat surprisingly isn't true either according to the average offensive statistics for AL LF posted by someone earlier in this thread. So it seems Gordon's WAR is inflated by 1. left fielders that as a whole can't play defense and 2. are putting up pedestrian offensive numbers.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

If we are referencing mental with regards to positioning, then it's still quite important.

Most defensive positioning is dictated by the coaches or pre-game scouting reports.

 

Let me put this another way. I bet I could name many more examples of a player displaying average defense and dramatically worse offensive numbers in a given year (by that given player's historical standard) than a player displaying average offense and dramatically worse defense in a given year. I.E. Chris Davis, De Aza, Viciedo, etc. Or on the flip side, more examples of a player displaying average defense and dramatically improved offense than a player displaying average offense and dramatically improved defense. Why is that? How do you explain the greater standard deviation in a guy's offensive numbers when compared to his defensive numbers? Why is defense relatively consistent when hitting is not? Did a guy change his entire swing from one year to next? Is he just getting unlucky for an entire season? Did he just forget how to hit? Most guys hat make it to the big leagues, have refined their mechanics to a point that minimal changes are made over the remaining course of their career. More often than not, it's between the ears. Confidence is very important. Right now you can just see that a guy like Beckham completely lacks confidence at the plate. It doesn't matter how many changes he makes to his mechanics, he won't succeed until he gets his mind right (thus the change of scenery concept).

[witesoxfan]

The Alex Gordon conversation has come full circle. This was my exact point when I stated that a LF's defensive ability should not swing a guy with Gordon's offensive numbers into the second highest WAR in MLB for the season, even if he is an elite defender. Frankly, LF defense just isn't that important, especially relative to positions up the middle (C, SS, 2B, and CF). If it was, you wouldn't find so many hacks playing LF. And the argument that they are bolstering their offense by putting a bad defender out there somewhat surprisingly isn't true either according to the average offensive statistics for AL LF posted by someone earlier in this thread. So it seems Gordon's WAR is inflated by 1. left fielders that as a whole can't play defense and 2. are putting up pedestrian offensive numbers.

 

I don't believe this has come full circle at all, and I do think defense in left field is important. Just because teams put bad defenders in left field does not mean you can not find a competitive advantage by putting a good defender in left field. The 2005 Sox outfield defense was much better and saved a lot of runs because they had a speedy guy who could cover a lot of ground in Podsednik out there. I fully believe the 2010 White Sox almost won 90 games partly due to Juan Pierre having gold glove range out there. A lot of balls get hit out to left field. The Royals are in first place in the AL Central and part of that reason is undoubtedly due to their defense, and Gordon provides great defense out there.

 

I think saying that having good defense is not important is virtually the exact same thing as saying having good defense at 3B is not important. Of course it is, but if you're Robin Ventura right now, do you want to play a mediocre defender in Conor Gillaspie at 3B to get his bat in the lineup, or do you want to put Leury Garcia over there who, while playing much better defense, will also put up a .550 OPS? You are going to choose the bat.

 

Frankly, I think good defense at every position is incredibly important, but beggars can't be choosers. There are only so many guys who are good to great defenders at all these positions but the number of guys who hit well is even less than that. Teams value good hitting more than they value good fielding because it's much more difficult to find.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

I don't believe this has come full circle at all, and I do think defense in left field is important. Just because teams put bad defenders in left field does not mean you can not find a competitive advantage by putting a good defender in left field. The 2005 Sox outfield defense was much better and saved a lot of runs because they had a speedy guy who could cover a lot of ground in Podsednik out there. I fully believe the 2010 White Sox almost won 90 games partly due to Juan Pierre having gold glove range out there. A lot of balls get hit out to left field. The Royals are in first place in the AL Central and part of that reason is undoubtedly due to their defense, and Gordon provides great defense out there.

 

I think saying that having good defense is not important is virtually the exact same thing as saying having good defense at 3B is not important. Of course it is, but if you're Robin Ventura right now, do you want to play a mediocre defender in Conor Gillaspie at 3B to get his bat in the lineup, or do you want to put Leury Garcia over there who, while playing much better defense, will also put up a .550 OPS? You are going to choose the bat.

 

Frankly, I think good defense at every position is incredibly important, but beggars can't be choosers. There are only so many guys who are good to great defenders at all these positions but the number of guys who hit well is even less than that. Teams value good hitting more than they value good fielding because it's much more difficult to find.

I never said defense isn't important, I just don't believe that LF defense is nearly as important as you are making it sound. To me, defense up the middle is very important particularly relative to the corner positions.

 

There is no doubt that defense has played a large role in the Royals' success this year. They have an average offense, very good pitching (esp. bullpen), and great defense. However, I would argue that their record would be even better if they had average defense, very good pitching, and a great offense (i.e. 2013 Boston Red Sox).

[witesoxfan]

I never said defense isn't important, I just don't believe that LF defense is nearly as important as you are making it sound. To me, defense up the middle is very important particularly relative to the corner positions.

 

There is no doubt that defense has played a large role in the Royals' success this year. They have an average offense, very good pitching (esp. bullpen), and great defense. However, I would argue that their record would be even better if they had average defense, very good pitching, and a great offense (i.e. 2013 Boston Red Sox).

 

What I'm saying is that it doesn't matter how you rate the importance of defense in LF. The numbers indicate that Alex Gordon has been so good out there that he has saved a lot of runs and has likely, as a result, won games for the Royals based solely on his defensive ability.

[Quin]

A lot of people would say pitcher defense doesn't matter, but that Grantland article on Buehrle would say otherwise.

[Jose Abreu]

Stanton now leads MLB with 32 HR. Ortiz leads in RBI with 91.

[chitownsportsfan]

Stanton now leads MLB with 32 HR. Ortiz leads in RBI with 91.

 

He's kinda muddling a long (certainly most players would take his "muddling along") but he's getting jammed inside now so that's the next adjustment.

[shysocks]

Was looking up Abreu's first and second half splits this morning because while it's obvious that he's not hitting for as much power, it still seems likes he's been no less effective. Anyway, I noticed something interesting.

 

1st half: .292/.342/.630/.972, 6.3 BB%, 23.4 K%, 162 wRC+

2nd half: .361/.438/.534/.972, 9.8 BB%, 18.3 K%, 169wRC+

 

Funny that he's gotten to an identical OPS in such drastically different ways. In conclusion: stud.

 

[Rowand44]

Was looking up Abreu's first and second half splits this morning because while it's obvious that he's not hitting for as much power, it still seems likes he's been no less effective. Anyway, I noticed something interesting.

 

1st half: .292/.342/.630/.972, 6.3 BB%, 23.4 K%, 162 wRC+

2nd half: .361/.438/.534/.972, 9.8 BB%, 18.3 K%, 169wRC+

 

Funny that he's gotten to an identical OPS in such drastically different ways. In conclusion: stud.

That's pretty crazy actually. Good stuff.

[southsider2k5]

Really nice to see the way that K rate has dropped.

[Rowand44]

Really nice to see the way that K rate has dropped.

The bb percentage increase is awesome to see as well. Dude is just an awesome hitter who apparently can adjust very well to the major league game.

[ptatc]

Really nice to see the way that K rate has dropped.

HR rate has dropped as well. Those tend to go together.

[Eminor3rd]

10% walk rate is SUPER promising. We are watching this guy learn and it's exciting.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

10% walk rate is SUPER promising. We are watching this guy learn and it's exciting.

 

It's also a result of managers being more careful and pitching around him too.

[southsider2k5]

Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin 2h

 

Abreu already looking to be more of a leader in 2015 http://atmlb.com/1q2RQpR via @mlb

[Jose Abreu]

When did Cruz jump to 39 home runs? Abreu has almost no chance at that, now.