Jose Abreu Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 (MLB, not AL) Abreu is now 4th in HR, 6th in RBI, and 5th in BA. The second-half HR/RBI drought has really cost him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 (MLB, not AL) Abreu is now 4th in HR, 6th in RBI, and 5th in BA. The second-half HR/RBI drought has really cost him. I'm not terribly concerned about those stats. Abreu is 1st in MLB in SLG, 10th in OBP, and 2nd in OPS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chw42 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 I actually prefer second half Abreu. He's been hitting like Miguel Cabrera. Sure I'd like to see a few more homers, but you can't complain about a .438 OBP and .534 SLG. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chitownsportsfan Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 8, 2014 -> 04:03 PM) I actually prefer second half Abreu. He's been hitting like Miguel Cabrera. Sure I'd like to see a few more homers, but you can't complain about a .438 OBP and .534 SLG. I think he's tired and is trying to pace himself. Next year he'll have a full offseason to train knowing how long the grind is. He came into camp probably about 10-15 lbs overweight (not even saying he was out of shape just a little overweight for a 162 game grind) so next spring I think he'll show up a little lighter on his feet and that will help. Seems like he's also "just missed" a couple HR that earlier in the year he was getting a bit lucky on. And yea, there is nothing wrong with a .438/534 split -- as you said, that's Frank Thomas -- one of the 20 best hitters of all time. And Jose is doing this in a relative dead ball era. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptatc Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 8, 2014 -> 04:03 PM) I actually prefer second half Abreu. He's been hitting like Miguel Cabrera. Sure I'd like to see a few more homers, but you can't complain about a .438 OBP and .534 SLG. There is some room for complaints as the OBP and SLG increase the chances for runs, the HR actually are runs. I agree however that the better hitter with fewer HRs is more productive for the team, once the players around him improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Dan Hayes @CSNHayes 49m Jose Abreu never played more than 90 games in a season prior to '14. In games 91-133, has a .394/.481/.574 slash line w/ 5 HRs, 24 RBIs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heads22 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 he's a top 5 hitter in baseball, and a bargain at what we are paying him. neat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Heads22 @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 08:30 PM) he's a top 5 hitter in baseball, and a bargain at what we are paying him. neat According to offensive WAR, he's just a SMIDGE below McCutchen for 2nd best hitter in baseball this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 08:47 PM) According to offensive WAR, he's just a SMIDGE below McCutchen for 2nd best hitter in baseball this year. That's a joke. A .324 BA with 35/102 defeats .310 BA with 23/75 any day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 And while we're on the WAR topic, is Alex Gordon really that good? I mean, for someone hitting .270 with 19/67, he better be one of the best defensive players of all time to have a WAR that good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 09:19 PM) That's a joke. A .324 BA with 35/102 defeats .310 BA with 23/75 any day. Okay, but you are also ignoring the face that Cutch strikes outs less, and walks a lot more. His OBP is .399. Oh yeah, and he has 17 SB too. Baserunning is a factor in Offensive WAR as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 09:39 PM) Okay, but you are also ignoring the face that Cutch strikes outs less, and walks a lot more. His OBP is .399. Oh yeah, and he has 17 SB too. Baserunning is a factor in Offensive WAR as well. My mistake, I thought that baserunning, hitting, and defense were all separate categories. Either way, I still think that the massive HR/RBI/AVG difference should be more heavily weighted, although I do agree that McCutchen has the advantage when it comes to OBP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalapse Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 09:47 PM) My mistake, I thought that baserunning, hitting, and defense were all separate categories. Either way, I still think that the massive HR/RBI/AVG difference should be more heavily weighted, although I do agree that McCutchen has the advantage when it comes to OBP. Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Kalapse @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 09:48 PM) Why? Because I feel like those stats, especially AVG, are more indicative of how good of a hitter is. OBP as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 10:23 PM) Because I feel like those stats, especially AVG, are more indicative of how good of a hitter is. OBP as well. Ok, but these are scientifically calculated based on which are more indicative of a good hitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 10:25 PM) Ok, but these are scientifically calculated based on which are more indicative of a good hitter. My original post was referring to baserunning being weighted in the offensive WAR stat, not the AVG/HR/RBI/OBP stats individually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 10:26 PM) My original post was referring to baserunning being weighted in the offensive WAR stat, not the AVG/HR/RBI/OBP stats individually. But then once I told you that baserunning was factored in, you said this.... QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 09:47 PM) Either way, I still think that the massive HR/RBI/AVG difference should be more heavily weighted I'm just saying they are weighted based on people much smarter than you or I using crazy amounts of data and equations. While defensive WAR is a flukey system, according to the people who calculate it, they are pretty damn confident in their offensive WAR calculations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 10:36 PM) But then once I told you that baserunning was factored in, you said this.... I'm just saying they are weighted based on people much smarter than you or I using crazy amounts of data and equations. While defensive WAR is a flukey system, according to the people who calculate it, they are pretty damn confident in their offensive WAR calculations Yeah, I'm not a big Sabermetrics guy, so referring to the first part of your post, I didn't know that baserunning and hitting were combined for offensive WAR. As for the second part, I understand, and I know that McCutchen is obviously a much better baserunner than Abreu, but I just don't get how baserunning is so important when it comes to the stat as opposed to hitting, that's all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 08:47 PM) According to offensive WAR, he's just a SMIDGE below McCutchen for 2nd best hitter in baseball this year. Wait a minute, now WAR measures who the best hitters are too? I thought oWAR tries to tell us who the most valuable offensive players are, so I'm confused because I thought baserunning (which has nothing to do with hitting) was included in oWAR cLculations. You want to know who the best hitters are? Look at BA- it will tell you the % of ABs that result in hits. Then look at SLG%- it will tell you whether a guy hurts baseballs or not. A top mix of those two stats will always be your best players, the stars, the fan favorites, the MVPs, the guys batting #3 or #4 I don't need WAR to tell me Jose Abreu is a beast but it does help me realize Andrelton Simmons had a better year last year than a quick glance at regular stats would tell me. By the way I like WAR, I just don't see much use for it generally. I don't think the MVP voters do either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiliIrishHammock24 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 11:46 PM) Wait a minute, now WAR measures who the best hitters are too? I thought oWAR tries to tell us who the most valuable offensive players are, so I'm confused because I thought baserunning (which has nothing to do with hitting) was included in oWAR cLculations. You want to know who the best hitters are? Look at BA- it will tell you the % of ABs that result in hits. Then look at SLG%- it will tell you whether a guy hurts baseballs or not. A top mix of those two stats will always be your best players, the stars, the fan favorites, the MVPs, the guys batting #3 or #4 I don't need WAR to tell me Jose Abreu is a beast but it does help me realize Andrelton Simmons had a better year last year than a quick glance at regular stats would tell me. By the way I like WAR, I just don't see much use for it generally. I don't think the MVP voters do either. So what you're saying is, defense and baserunning don't matter whatsoever. I'm not even going to touch this. You don't understand WAR, and you don't like it. That's your choice I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 chili I think you sort of mixed up "offensive player" and "hitter" there. They're not exactly the same thing there. When I think "he's a better hitter," baserunning doesn't really come to mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If you want to look at who the most productive hitters in the game are, and solely who the most productive hitters in the game are (without considering base running or position or anything like that), we should use wOBA (weighted on-base average) and wRC+ (weighted runs created plus). It's doing essentially what JerkSticks wanted, but it's combining it into one statistic and weighting everything else appropriately as well. wOBA will take all of those fancy numbers and combine them and spit them out into a number that will appear similar to batting average or on-base percentage so that we have some frame of reference for measurement in our mind. wRC will use the information we receive from wOBA and create a context neutral amount of runs that this player would produce; once we come to this number, we then create wRC+ which compares it to the league average while controlling for park effects. That last point is an important one. So, without further adieu: wOBA: 1. Jose Abreu - .420 2. everybody else (Victor Martinez .408) wRC+ 1. Jose Abreu - 170 2. everybody else (Mike Trout, 169) Suffice to say, we can safely conclude that Jose Abreu has been the best hitter in the major leagues this year. That's pretty awesome. Now remember that this was his first year in the big leagues and it's not entirely unreasonable to assume that he could improve next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I don't think you read my post. I'm defending WAR, just pointing out its not a supremely useful stat to tell you who the best hitters are; that's what BA & SLG are for. When I'm having a discussion of who the best hitters in the game are, I don't need Andrelton Simmons or Lucroy or Donaldson in the way of talking about Trout, Abreu, Cabrera, VMart etc. Most valuable all around player? Sign me up for WAR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) I don't think you read my post. I'm defending WAR, just pointing out its not a supremely useful stat to tell you who the best hitters are; that's what BA & SLG are for. When I'm having a discussion of who the best hitters in the game are, I don't need Andrelton Simmons or Lucroy or Donaldson in the way of talking about Trout, Abreu, Cabrera, VMart etc. Most valuable all around player? Sign me up for WAR. I like this, but again, I think the numbers you're looking for are wOBA and wRC+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrangeSox Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 09:01 AM) Now remember that this was his first year in the big leagues and it's not entirely unreasonable to assume that he could improve next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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