Strikeout Rates

[QuickJones81]

Is anyone concerned about the general trend in this farm system of striking out at an unbelievable rate? Hawkins gets all the attention in this regard, but there is a good group that makes him look good:

 

Jared Mitchell 56.8%

Keon Barnum 47.5%

Keenan Walker 46.8%

Matt Davidson 45.3%

Jacob Morris 41.1%

Trey Michalzewski 39.2%

Adam Engel 33.9%

Tim Anderson 32.8%

Courtney Hawkins 31.3%

 

Only Anderson, Mitchell, and Hawkins counteract this with a decent OPS.

[NorthSideSox72]

Is anyone concerned about the general trend in this farm system of striking out at an unbelievable rate? Hawkins gets all the attention in this regard, but there is a good group that makes him look good:

 

Jared Mitchell 56.8%

Keon Barnum 47.5%

Keenan Walker 46.8%

Matt Davidson 45.3%

Jacob Morris 41.1%

Trey Michalzewski 39.2%

Adam Engel 33.9%

Tim Anderson 32.8%

Courtney Hawkins 31.3%

 

Only Anderson, Mitchell, and Hawkins counteract this with a decent OPS.

How are you calculating K rate? Usually K/PA is the most useful number. On that, Hawkins for example is at 28.3%. That's actually a substantial improvement from 37.6% last year. K/PA gives you a much more accurate idea of their rate because if you use K/AB, you are penalizing guys who take walks, and walks are the other major indicator of plate discipline.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Your numbers are off. You should be using K/PA. Just looking at Jared Mitchell alone, his K% is actually 40%, not 56.8%. That's a MASSIVE difference.

[harfman77]

I think those are wrong as well, but nevertheless, it is still an issue with the organization. It is a product of the players that the Sox have acquired over the years, huge power with a lot of swing and miss in their bat. May and Engle are guys that are counter to that philosophy and I think they are just struggling to start the year and their rates will normalize as they adjust to their respective levels.

[southsider2k5]

Is anyone concerned about the general trend in this farm system of striking out at an unbelievable rate? Hawkins gets all the attention in this regard, but there is a good group that makes him look good:

 

Jared Mitchell 56.8%

Keon Barnum 47.5%

Keenan Walker 46.8%

Matt Davidson 45.3%

Jacob Morris 41.1%

Trey Michalzewski 39.2%

Adam Engel 33.9%

Tim Anderson 32.8%

Courtney Hawkins 31.3%

 

Only Anderson, Mitchell, and Hawkins counteract this with a decent OPS.

 

That is a really big improvement for Hawkins and Anderson.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

On that note though, what's interesting to me is, everyone was hyping the W-S lineup going into the season, with May, Anderson, Hawkins and Barnum at the top (and some other semi-interesting prospects like Coats and DeMichele in there too). Their numbers so far:

 

May: .127/.225/.190, 26.4% K/PA, .182 BABIP, .063 IsoSLG

Anderson: .265/.292/.485, 30.6% K/PA, .370 BABIP, .221 IsoSLG

Hawkins: .294/.338/.588, 28.3% K/PA, .349 BABIP, .294 IsoSLG

Barnum: .156/.217/.219, 43.5%, .294 BABIP, .063 IsoSLG

 

There are four different stories there.

 

May's BABIP is extremely low, and the K rate isn't terribly bad, which indicate some bad luck involved. He's also still walking at a decent clip, a good sign. But the much lower Iso Slugging vs last year indicates he likely isn't hitting many balls hard, so my view is, any "bad luck" is limited and he really is struggling to make hard contact.

 

Anderson's high IsoSLG indicates he's hitting the ball hard. But his K rate is getting into iffy territory, and that BABIP is way too high - so I'd expect some regression there. He's also not walking much which further indicates some likely regression.

 

Hawkins' K rate, while high, is much better than last year and not totally awful anymore. His BABIP is high-ish but not hugely so. And his Iso SLG says he is hitting the ball plenty hard. Those all indicate he's maybe got some sustainable numbers there, though the BABIP likely regresses some.

 

Barnum is just bad across the board. Tons of strikeouts, with an average BABIP (give or take), low slugging differential so he's not hitting the ball hard. He's walking some but not a ton. He looks overmatched to me.

 

Caveat Umptor: These are all small sample sizes still.

 

[witesoxfan]

I don't think Hawkins' BABIP is that high. A .350 BABIP, especially for a guy who hits the ball as hard as Courtney, is perfectly reasonable.

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't think Hawkins' BABIP is that high. A .350 BABIP, especially for a guy who hits the ball as hard as Courtney, is perfectly reasonable.

Yeah, that was kinda what I said. It is high, but given the other measures, it isn't out of reasonable range.

 

[witesoxfan]

Yeah, that was kinda what I said. It is high, but given the other measures, it isn't out of reasonable range.

 

Yes you did, but I like to say nice things about Courtney

 

Anderson's BABIP at .370 should see some regression but it's not alarming considering his speed. His speed is going to allow him to live with higher a BABIP. He actually finished with a .392 BABIP last year in 301 PAs. I am very happy with how Anderson has come along even if the stats aren't there yet. All indications have shown he has great hands and the fact that he can hang with the off speed stuff is amazing.

 

I would wager there isn't a player in all of the minor leagues with less amateur at bats than Anderson. This kid is RAW. The way he has handled off speed along with how he has gone to opposite field while not great, is very encouraging considering the circumstances. Obviously the walks are a bit alarming but Anderson is a guy who is in the infancy stage. He's learning on the fly and is holding his weight.

 

This seems like one of those situations where challenging a guy has worked out. He hasn't been overwhelmingly great, but considering how well he is playing for how raw he is is an incredibly encouraging sign.