SSS looks at Viciedo's start

[southsider2k5]

http://www.southsidesox.com/2014/4/25/5651...-stunning-start

[Jake]

There are several solid indicators that this isn't smoke and mirrors. In the past, his hot streaks just involved him doing the same old stuff, but a lot better. This year, he is quantifiably more patient and making better/more contact. It reinforces what I see in the eye test, which is a guy who is up there making quick adjustments within at-bats. Against Scherzer yesterday, there was an AB where he goes FB away, FB away, and then slider away. Viciedo takes an awful cut at the slider. Next pitch is an inside heater and Tank rips into LF for a base hit. As if Tank handling an inside pitch isn't remarkable enough, it came in a pitch sequence that should have left him extremely vulnerable to a swing and miss or broken bat in that spot.

[Eminor3rd]

34% O-Swing! If he keeps that up, I'll fly in to Chicago and have a session on the upper concourse where you guys can all stone me for hating on him so hard.

 

Still waiting for the other shoe to fall, though. Hope he proves me wrong.

[Balta1701]

34% O-Swing! If he keeps that up, I'll fly in to Chicago and have a session on the upper concourse where you guys can all stone me for hating on him so hard.

 

Still waiting for the other shoe to fall, though. Hope he proves me wrong.

I'm not calibrated on that number...is that actually good or is that just good relative to what he was doing before?

[chw42]

34% O-Swing! If he keeps that up, I'll fly in to Chicago and have a session on the upper concourse where you guys can all stone me for hating on him so hard.

 

Still waiting for the other shoe to fall, though. Hope he proves me wrong.

 

Eminor3rd stoning! Count me in.

[Eminor3rd]

I'm not calibrated on that number...is that actually good or is that just good relative to what he was doing before?

 

League average is usually ~31%. Visiendo's year by year: 38.7%, 36.4%, 39.9%, 42.5%

[chitownsportsfan]

I'm not calibrated on that number...is that actually good or is that just good relative to what he was doing before?

 

fangraphs has a helpful link up that shows the historical league average for the past decade or so:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/

 

30% is league average...Viciedo was at an awful 42.5% last year, and was trending in the wrong direction entirely, as that was up from 36% and 40% in '11 and '12.

 

So, for him to now get back down to 34% is pretty impressive. Usually these numbers start to normalize around 100 PA so he's onto something here. If he's still at around 34% by July you can probably say this is a new, improved Viciedo. Even with his poor defense, he's been worth .7fWAR this year, and hell, I'll take that. He's a guy that has to rake around 280/330/450 to have value as an everyday player, so even if he regresses quite a bit he has some margin. If he finishes with that line in around 500 PA I'll be thrilled and that should give him 2-3 WAR depending on how bad his defense is. Offense is way down, even at the corner spots. A 780 OPS goes a lot further than it used to.

 

edit: ht to Eminor.

Edited April 25, 2014 by chitownsportsfan

[Eminor3rd]

Another promising number: 91.4% Z-Contact compared to a career 83.7%. No idea if that's sustainable, but if so, above average zone contact + above average power is really promising. League average is usually ~87%

[Eminor3rd]

fangraphs has a helpful link up that shows the historical league average for the past decade or so:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/

 

30% is league average...Viciedo was at an awful 42.5% last year, and was trending in the wrong direction entirely, as that was up from 36% and 40% in '11 and '12.

 

So, for him to now get back down to 34% is pretty impressive. Usually these numbers start to normalize around 100 PA so he's onto something here. If he's still at around 34% by July you can probably say this is a new, improved Viciedo.

 

edit: ht to Eminor.

 

Awesome news on the normalization sample.

[southsider2k5]

Another promising number: 91.4% Z-Contact compared to a career 83.7%. No idea if that's sustainable, but if so, above average zone contact + above average power is really promising. League average is usually ~87%

 

I think the change in his approach to pitches on the outer half is a big reason he is seeing a much higher contact rate. He had gotten extremely pull happy in previous years, where he would try to yank those outerhalf pitches to LF. Now he is swinging to those pitches and punching them into RCF, very similar to what we are seeing out of Flowers.

 

Sure there will be some regression after pitchers make an adjustment, but I think both end up putting up much better numbers this year because of the mental and physical changes in their approaches.

[chitownsportsfan]

I think the change in his approach to pitches on the outer half is a big reason he is seeing a much higher contact rate. He had gotten extremely pull happy in previous years, where he would try to yank those outerhalf pitches to LF. Now he is swinging to those pitches and punching them into RCF, very similar to what we are seeing out of Flowers.

 

Sure there will be some regression after pitchers make an adjustment, but I think both end up putting up much better numbers this year because of the mental and physical changes in their approaches.

 

Master of the obvious here, but the key will be how he reacts to a slump. Will he have the discipline to remain patient when he's not seeing the ball this well? Will he continue to use all fields after a couple line drives fall into mitts?

 

We'll see, but it's pretty exciting what he's done so far, the most reason for optimism since around 2011 for him. Also, he's completely healthy, knock on wood, for the first time a while.

[witesoxfan]

34% O-Swing! If he keeps that up, I'll fly in to Chicago and have a session on the upper concourse where you guys can all stone me for hating on him so hard.

 

Still waiting for the other shoe to fall, though. Hope he proves me wrong.

 

I was hoping to see your face in here

 

This was the Viciedo that I've always held out hope in seeing. We saw glimpses of this guy last year, but he was still a free swinging mess at that point. If he can remain this patient hitter, he's going to be good for the Sox.

[caulfield12]

Silence from our resident critic?

 

Golden.

 

Now. Who do we want to attribute this new Viciedo to? Steverson? Abreu's calming presence? The fact he can "relax" with the Garcia injury and not have to worry about losing at-bats on a daily basis? Paul Konero working with him?

 

Would be curious to see Dayan's answer as to what has changed in his approach.

[witesoxfan]

Silence from our resident critic?

 

Golden.

 

Now. Who do we want to attribute this new Viciedo to? Steverson? Abreu's calming presence? The fact he can "relax" with the Garcia injury and not have to worry about losing at-bats on a daily basis? Paul Konero working with him?

 

Would be curious to see Dayan's answer as to what has changed in his approach.

 

He's already said it's primarily been Steverson.

[TaylorStSox]

I think the change in his approach to pitches on the outer half is a big reason he is seeing a much higher contact rate. He had gotten extremely pull happy in previous years, where he would try to yank those outerhalf pitches to LF. Now he is swinging to those pitches and punching them into RCF, very similar to what we are seeing out of Flowers.

 

Sure there will be some regression after pitchers make an adjustment, but I think both end up putting up much better numbers this year because of the mental and physical changes in their approaches.

I think he's just a classic case of a guy that was always trying to do too much instead of relying on his natural tools. He's always been a very gifted hitter. He doesn't need to try to hit the ball 500 feet on every swing.

[Dick Allen]

One thing a lot of people don't realize is Dayan Viciedo is actually a year younger than Adam Eaton.

[fathom]

I think he's just a classic case of a guy that was always trying to do too much instead of relying on his natural tools. He's always been a very gifted hitter. He doesn't need to try to hit the ball 500 feet on every swing.

 

Great post, as he'd probably have more success trying to hit .280 with 20 homers instead of .250 with 40 homers. He does a good job of spraying the ball around the field, and a lot of his homers come on balls that he doesn't hit nearly as good as his doubles.

[Eminor3rd]

I think he's just a classic case of a guy that was always trying to do too much instead of relying on his natural tools. He's always been a very gifted hitter. He doesn't need to try to hit the ball 500 feet on every swing.

 

That would definitely explain the increased Z-Contact rate, but the O-Swing is what I think is the real key, which comes either from newfound patience or improved ability to recognize s*** pitches.

[TaylorStSox]

That would definitely explain the increased Z-Contact rate, but the O-Swing is what I think is the real key, which comes either from newfound patience or improved ability to recognize s*** pitches.

Vlad Guerrero disease. A guy with great plate coverage needs to realize that just because you can hit a ball at your feet doesn't mean you should swing at it.

[Chicago White Sox]

34% O-Swing! If he keeps that up, I'll fly in to Chicago and have a session on the upper concourse where you guys can all stone me for hating on him so hard.

 

Still waiting for the other shoe to fall, though. Hope he proves me wrong.

Eminor3rd, still too early for a stoning, but the results have been extremely promising thus far. Viciedo looks like a completely different hitter this season in terms of his approach. Just from an eye test, you can see him chasing much fewer pitches outside the zone and connecting on more on those pitches within the zone. Glad you were able to provide some stats that support his improved plate discipline. Steverson deserves a lot of credit for his work with Dayan, because it's been nothing short of remarkable.

[Chisoxfn]

One thing a lot of people don't realize is Dayan Viciedo is actually a year younger than Adam Eaton.

His bat speed and natural tools, from an offensive perspective, are elite. I hope this is just the start of his maturity and development as a hitter. I've never wavered on Viciedo and felt that it was important that the organization is patient with him. I hope this patience will be justified and this is just the start of what is to come.

[Cubano]

I think Abreu's presence have energized the Missile and the Tank.

[cabiness42]

I think Abreu's presence have energized the Missile and the Tank.

 

Viciedo has 6 walks already and Alexei has 5. Whether it be Abreu, Steverson, or somebody else, there is clear change in these two.

[Cubano]

Viciedo has 6 walks already and Alexei has 5. Whether it be Abreu, Steverson, or somebody else, there is clear change in these two.

 

They also have been put on notice especially Viciedo. Alexei has been good for you though. IMO Viciedo has been always overrated in Cuba and here. He is probably not swinging for the fences as much as in the past. I have not seen all of his ABs. I do not have the time. I just go the the video highlights at the end of the game. I have seen lot of Abreu in April in those highlights.

Edited April 26, 2014 by Cubano