White Sox claim P Hector Noesi off waivers

[caulfield12]

Of those that qualified for the ERA title last year:

 

By ERA, the fourth worst pitcher in the majors was Hector Noesi. The fifth worst was John Danks.

 

By FIP, the third worst pitcher in the majors was Hector Noesi. The fourth worst was John Danks.

 

By xFIP, the second worst pitcher in the majors was John Danks. The tenth was Hector Noesi.

 

By fWAR, the sixth worst pitcher in the majors was Hector Noesi. The ninth was John Danks.

 

TL;DR No matter how you slice it, both sabermetrically and traditionally, John Danks and Hector Noesi were among the bottom ten pitchers in the entire major leagues last year.

 

 

And if you remove his SEA and TEX numbers?

[Dick Allen]

It's all very well to say he'll be fine but the only way to deal with this is to look at what went wrong in the 12 games where he gave up the runs.

 

Was his arm tired? was he on short rest? Did Robin leave him in too long and not go to the pen quickly enough.

 

If Coops can work with him and reduce either the number of games where he is terrible or the amount of runs that he gives up when he is not pitching well, then he has a chance of becoming much better, however if Coops can't "fix" some of those 12 games, then he will remain what he is, an overpaid 4th starter.

I think he is kind of like Buehrle now where his "stuff" is short pretty much every start. It's just a matter of locating. Danks' change is pretty sweet, but sometimes that can't save you, and when he pitches up, the ball tends to leave the park. When Buehrle can't paint the corners, he is basically batting practice. Danks doesn't locate as well as Buehrle anyway, and when he is forced to throw the ball over the plate, he generally is going to get hit hard.

[caulfield12]

It's all very well to say he'll be fine but the only way to deal with this is to look at what went wrong in the 12 games where he gave up the runs.

 

Was his arm tired? was he on short rest? Did Robin leave him in too long and not go to the pen quickly enough.

 

If Coops can work with him and reduce either the number of games where he is terrible or the amount of runs that he gives up when he is not pitching well, then he has a chance of becoming much better, however if Coops can't "fix" some of those 12 games, then he will remain what he is, an overpaid 4th starter.

 

 

It was mostly location, the fact that there wasn't as much of a differentiation in pitch speeds compared to previous years, leaving a lot of pitches up in the strike zone (which is obviously mechanics as well)...getting behind in counts and not having the stuff to miss bats unless his change-up was on that day.

 

Unless he's throwing 91-93 like in the past, he has to feature much better command and get ahead more frequently. It's simple, Mark Buehrle's tried and true formula, but of course it's not in reality. Working at a faster pace might help, too, as he really slows down when he gets out of rhythm and it exacerbates his struggles. Limiting pitch counts (which is affected by not getting as many swings and misses) should help, but at this point it is what it is.

Edited February 24, 2015 by caulfield12

[LDF]

It was mostly location, the fact that there wasn't as much of a differentiation in pitch speeds compared to previous years, leaving a lot of pitches up in the strike zone (which is obviously mechanics as well)...getting behind in counts and not having the stuff to miss bats unless his change-up was on that day.

 

Unless he's throwing 91-93 like in the past, he has to feature much better command and get ahead more frequently. It's simple, Mark Buehrle's tried and true formula, but of course it's not in reality. Working at a faster pace might help, too, as he really slows down when he gets out of rhythm and it exacerbates his struggles. Limiting pitch counts (which is affected by not getting as many swings and misses) should help, but at this point it is what it is.

 

i do have faith in Danks and i believe he may find a way to get the job done. he is a throw back to the old school pitchers, but i guess, we as fans will see how spring trng pans out.

[southsider2k5]

Do you think John Danks sucked last year? Noesi's White Sox ERA was 0.05 lower, and his FIP was higher.

 

The emergence of Hector Noesi is very overblown.

 

There is a lot of slop built into those numbers, especially the early starts where they left him in to get beat up, because building pitch counts was more important than his numbers. There is also the swoon at the end of the year that is pretty easy to imagine is a direct result of the number of innings he threw. I am not expecting greatness or anything, but I do expect the numbers will improve a bit.

[caulfield12]

i do have faith in Danks and i believe he may find a way to get the job done. he is a throw back to the old school pitchers, but i guess, we as fans will see how spring trng pans out.

 

 

Spring training is meaningless for Danks at this point. Looking at his stats through May 15 will be the most important indicator.

 

I'm sure if he's throwing harder we'll hear Hawk gushing about how he's going to win 15+ games and be an anchor to the back of the rotation, results in AZ doesn't mean much because of the desert air and faster sun-baked infields.

 

Still, it should have less of an effect on his change and fastball than curves and sliders.

Edited February 24, 2015 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

4.39 vs 4.74 is not a difference of .05.

 

He also had a better WHIP, ERA+, BB/9, K/9, H/9, K/BB ratio

 

Making up one stat and cherry picking another does not make a good comp

 

He is taking full season stats to make the comp look worse.

[LDF]

Spring training is meaningless for Danks at this point. Looking at his stats through May 15 will be the most important indicator.

 

I'm sure if he's throwing harder we'll hear Hawk gushing about how he's going to win 15+ games and be an anchor to the back of the rotation, results in AZ doesn't mean much because of the desert air and faster sun-baked infields.

 

Still, it should have less of an effect on his change and fastball than curves and sliders.

 

but spring training will show if he has indeed improve or has made any changes.

[Dick Allen]

He is taking full season stats to make the comp look worse.

I actually just misread the ERA as I need to get myself some glasses.

[LDF]

He is taking full season stats to make the comp look worse.

 

but last yr was a wretched yr to gage on the pitchers. if anything, it should be used as a spring board for looking for improvement with ref to the starting pitchers.

[Dick Allen]

i do have faith in Danks and i believe he may find a way to get the job done. he is a throw back to the old school pitchers, but i guess, we as fans will see how spring trng pans out.

He does have a bulldog like mentality. It's one reason I give him the benefit of the doubt.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Sorry but using Noesi's full season stats from last year vs Danks' full season stats is f***ing meaningless and a really bad, dumb way of arguing a point.

[caulfield12]

LDF has been a bit like the Greg "Little Bulldog" Hibbard of SoxTalk these days, haha.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

One difference this year is the games are expected to be won. Sometimes that inspires guys, sometimes that causes performance to drop significantly.

[Y2Jimmy0]

After looking at Noesi's White Sox numbers, they weren't as good as I thought they were. I never said that Coop "fixed" him though. I was relaying a cool story about how and why he was acquired. Next time I won't.

[southsider2k5]

One difference this year is the games are expected to be won. Sometimes that inspires guys, sometimes that causes performance to drop significantly.

 

Very true. I think that is why the team used last year as a big audition, to put guys into roles and see how they responded. Now they have a much clearer idea of who they have on their roster, and how they respond to certain situations.

 

It isn't going to be perfect, but for those who fail, the team has more options this year, then they did last year. They also have the depth to make other moves, if the situation arises.

 

If Noesi regresses, we have Carlos Rodon waiting in the wings. If that isn't incentive enough, too bad for Noesi.

[LDF]

LDF has been a bit like the Greg "Little Bulldog" Hibbard of SoxTalk these days, haha.

 

oh man, i am really trying to be nice today, i am walking on egg shells here.

 

[witesoxfan]

After looking at Noesi's White Sox numbers, they weren't as good as I thought they were. I never said that Coop "fixed" him though. I was relaying a cool story about how and why he was acquired. Next time I won't.

 

I don't think anyone was trying to bring this down, and it was a cool anecdote. It's just us basically saying that, until Noesi looks the part of a good starter, it's best to remain skeptical.

[LDF]

One difference this year is the games are expected to be won. Sometimes that inspires guys, sometimes that causes performance to drop significantly.

 

exactly, this is "the road to the playoff" and i do not care. mostly all players will put their best foot forward on a season like this.

 

there should really be a huge excitement this season.

 

book it.

[LDF]

After looking at Noesi's White Sox numbers, they weren't as good as I thought they were. I never said that Coop "fixed" him though. I was relaying a cool story about how and why he was acquired. Next time I won't.

 

i hope you don't mean that, that was a kool story. that what makes forums like this enjoyable.

[Eminor3rd]

If that were true, then why did Noesi qualify? He's got no big contract, we could have tossed him away at any time.

 

The reason is because they'd have to be replaced. Danks qualified because if he weren't throwing those innings, somebody like the guys on that list would have been doing it instead. He may not deserve credit for having a big contract, but he deserves credit for putting up .8 WAR in those innings instead of 0 or less.

 

Because we didn't have anyone better, which is the point. We don't have any decent pitching depth. Hector Noesi and John Danks were terrible pitchers last year.

[Eminor3rd]

When Danks had a quality start:

20 games, 130.2 innings, 2.48 ERA (team record 10-10, 1-6 in no decisions)

 

Without quality starts:

12 games, 63 innings, 9.43 ERA

 

#1 positive--he made his starts. No DL time.

#2 positive--he's another year away from surgery, which could help him

#3 positive--he's playing with a better offense to support him

 

He'll be fine.

 

 

If that were true, then why did Noesi qualify? He's got no big contract, we could have tossed him away at any time.

 

The reason is because they'd have to be replaced. Danks qualified because if he weren't throwing those innings, somebody like the guys on that list would have been doing it instead. He may not deserve credit for having a big contract, but he deserves credit for putting up .8 WAR in those innings instead of 0 or less.

 

Also, yes, he made his starts. He gets credit for his 0.8 fWAR over a full season -- which is a bad number. Substantially below average. He gets credit for giving us 200 innings of bad pitcher.

 

[LDF]

Because we didn't have anyone better, which is the point. We don't have any decent pitching depth. Hector Noesi and John Danks were terrible pitchers last year.

 

and in some way the sox still don't except for the bull pen. however starting a new season, and hoping that the main core of pitchers can really pull it out, it is kind of exciting.

[Eminor3rd]

and in some way the sox still don't except for the bull pen. however starting a new season, and hoping that the main core of pitchers can really pull it out, it is kind of exciting.

 

Right. No question the top three are great, but this is one of the main reasons that the projections/skeptics are further down on the Sox' chances than we want them to be. Most teams get significant innings out of about 8 starters each season, and our top 8 include Danks, Noesi, Brad Penny, Erik Johnson, and like Scott Carroll or something. Certainly we have high hopes for Rodon and he could be difference maker, but he's a still a prospect.

[southsider2k5]

After looking at Noesi's White Sox numbers, they weren't as good as I thought they were. I never said that Coop "fixed" him though. I was relaying a cool story about how and why he was acquired. Next time I won't.

Situations like Noesi's last year are exactly why there is more to baseball than stats.