Will Sox be buyers, not sellers, at the trade deadline?

[VAfan]

Everyone seems to assume that the Sox are not done unloading contracts, and will be looking to help other teams at the deadline this year by moving major league players for prospects.

 

I'm not so sure that will be true.

 

It's all based on the assumption that the Sox will be out of the AL Central race by July. But why is that necessarily going to happen?

 

The Sox offense looks nothing like it did last season. We have a new hitting coach. We have a stud offensive player in Jose Abreu. We have an excellent lead off hitter in Adam Eaton. We actually have some left handed bats in Gillespie, De Aza, Dunn, Garcia, Nieto, and Danks. Alexei Ramirez has rediscovered his power stroke to go along with his higher average. Dayan Viciedo is hitting better than most of us hoped he could. Tyler Flowers will likely return to earth, but not likely at the pathetic level he showed last year, but at a very reasonable level that suggests the Sox may have a real catcher. Semien's emergence makes Gordon Beckham expendable. We haven't even seen Matt Davidson yet. Even without Avisail Garcia -- the Sox' offense has not collapsed.

 

On the pitching side, things have looked bad, but they seem repairable. Chris Sale should return. Quintana is still solid. John Danks is pitching better than he did the last two years. That leaves two starter holes to fill. But with a solid offense, you may need only league average guys to fill those slots. And the Sox have multiple options.

 

The bullpen is another major concern, but bullpen guys should be relatively easy to pick up. Plus, Jones should get healthy and help stabilize the late-inning group. The Sox have Gordon Beckham to trade at the very least.

 

This seems to me to be a team that could hover around .500 throughout the season. And with every other team in the AL Central at a similar level, it doesn't look like the Tigers or anyone else will run away with the division.

 

If Ken Williams were still the GM, you know he'd be thinking about how to make a run this year. With Rick Hahn, we don't have the same track record.

 

But Hahn hasn't dumped anyone for far-off prospects. He turned Peavy into Garcia, a major-league ready RF. He turned Santiago into Eaton, a major-league ready leadoff guy and CF. He traded Addison Reed for Matt Davidson, an almost-major-league ready 3B. Davidson could still come up this year and supplant Gillaspie at 3rd. The Rios trade was largely a salary dump, but it made way for Avisail Garcia in RF, and gave us a switch-hitting utility infielder.

 

If the Sox were buyers, what would they need?

 

A quality starting pitcher, a couple of bullpen arms, and someone better in the outfield than De Aza or Jordan Danks. That may be all that is required to contend until the end in the AL Central. The Sox won't have to mortgage the future to go this route. Dunn is going to be a free agent anyway, and wouldn't return much as a late-season rental. John Danks is the only other player with a rich contract, but he has shown enough so far that, with a little more improvement, might be worth keeping. Trading Beckham wouldn't be selling, it would be turning an asset where we have a ready replacement into strengthening the team somewhere else.

 

Until the Sox are out of the race, I'm going to think of them as in the race, and hope the Sox act accordingly.

[southsider2k5]

I think you are putting the horse in front of the cart so far. We are 26 games into a rebuilding season, in which we are sitting at .500. We are also really suffering at the turnstyles.

 

As of today, I can't see us adding players unless they are more deals like we saw this winter.

[Eminor3rd]

If they are buyers, I wouldn't expect any big moves. If the team contends this year, it'll be because it's hot. Best case scenario is that we find some breakouts -- that's the goal of any rebuilding year. But there shouldn't be anyone that thinks our pitching staff right now (injured + bullpen) is that of a real contender.

 

Hahn's ultimate goal this year SHOULD be to hover around .500. That'll mean that most of the guys panned out like they were supposed to. This gives him a foundation from which to add for next year. He dumps/DFAs/lets walk the pieces that didn't pan out and retains the ones that did, going into the offseason with a good idea of what his team needs to improve again. Trim the fat, develop the muscle. A couple iterations through and we've got a healthy franchise.

[lasttriptotulsa]

Even if the Sox are in contention come July, they will probably not be "buyers" per say. They would most likely stay pat and are not going to be willing to trade anything of significant value during a rebuild. Now if somebody becomes available that they can get for minor league scrubs, they may be willing to explore that.

[witesoxfan]

I think the only way they will be buyers in the traditional sense is if it's with 2015 in mind. Perhaps a guy is available that they can trade for and keep away from someone in the Central.

 

But yeah, any other moves I think would be akin to Youkilis and Liriano from 2012.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Everyone seems to assume that the Sox are not done unloading contracts, and will be looking to help other teams at the deadline this year by moving major league players for prospects.

 

I'm not so sure that will be true.

 

It's all based on the assumption that the Sox will be out of the AL Central race by July. But why is that necessarily going to happen?

 

The Sox offense looks nothing like it did last season. We have a new hitting coach. We have a stud offensive player in Jose Abreu. We have an excellent lead off hitter in Adam Eaton. We actually have some left handed bats in Gillespie, De Aza, Dunn, Garcia, Nieto, and Danks. Alexei Ramirez has rediscovered his power stroke to go along with his higher average. Dayan Viciedo is hitting better than most of us hoped he could. Tyler Flowers will likely return to earth, but not likely at the pathetic level he showed last year, but at a very reasonable level that suggests the Sox may have a real catcher. Semien's emergence makes Gordon Beckham expendable. We haven't even seen Matt Davidson yet. Even without Avisail Garcia -- the Sox' offense has not collapsed.

 

On the pitching side, things have looked bad, but they seem repairable. Chris Sale should return. Quintana is still solid. John Danks is pitching better than he did the last two years. That leaves two starter holes to fill. But with a solid offense, you may need only league average guys to fill those slots. And the Sox have multiple options.

 

The bullpen is another major concern, but bullpen guys should be relatively easy to pick up. Plus, Jones should get healthy and help stabilize the late-inning group. The Sox have Gordon Beckham to trade at the very least.

 

This seems to me to be a team that could hover around .500 throughout the season. And with every other team in the AL Central at a similar level, it doesn't look like the Tigers or anyone else will run away with the division.

 

If Ken Williams were still the GM, you know he'd be thinking about how to make a run this year. With Rick Hahn, we don't have the same track record.

 

But Hahn hasn't dumped anyone for far-off prospects. He turned Peavy into Garcia, a major-league ready RF. He turned Santiago into Eaton, a major-league ready leadoff guy and CF. He traded Addison Reed for Matt Davidson, an almost-major-league ready 3B. Davidson could still come up this year and supplant Gillaspie at 3rd. The Rios trade was largely a salary dump, but it made way for Avisail Garcia in RF, and gave us a switch-hitting utility infielder.

 

If the Sox were buyers, what would they need?

 

A quality starting pitcher, a couple of bullpen arms, and someone better in the outfield than De Aza or Jordan Danks. That may be all that is required to contend until the end in the AL Central. The Sox won't have to mortgage the future to go this route. Dunn is going to be a free agent anyway, and wouldn't return much as a late-season rental. John Danks is the only other player with a rich contract, but he has shown enough so far that, with a little more improvement, might be worth keeping. Trading Beckham wouldn't be selling, it would be turning an asset where we have a ready replacement into strengthening the team somewhere else.

 

Until the Sox are out of the race, I'm going to think of them as in the race, and hope the Sox act accordingly.

 

I will trust what Rick Hahn has told us. If something presents itself that nets the Sox a young player, locked up for multiple seasons, that could be seen as part of the solution going forward, he will make a deal. If not, he probably won't. For example: I think Hahn would be open to dealing prospects for a guy like Padres C Yasmani Grandal that could be seen as a core piece for years to come. OTOH, I couldn't see him trading a couple of young players for a SP in the final year of his deal to try and win this year.

 

[greg775]

I got attacked on the boards for complaining about our wretched bullpen, saying otherwise the Sox could be contenders this year. So I would suspect everybody insists the team will be sellers, big-time sellers.

[cabiness42]

I don't think that being in contention will make the Sox buyers, but it may make them non-sellers.

[southsider2k5]

I got attacked on the boards for complaining about our wretched bullpen, saying otherwise the Sox could be contenders this year. So I would suspect everybody insists the team will be sellers, big-time sellers.

 

The Sox offense wouldn't look like what it did if we hadn't have been sellers for the past year. If they want to get this rebuild done right, they would be smart not to change course at this point, as there is still much more work to be done if they want to rebuild their model of sustained success, and not flash in the pan success.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I don't want them to be buyers in any way shape form (unless we are just talking about adding a bullpen arm, that's relatively minor). If we are still in contention 3 months from now, then I'd prefer we just stand pat. If we are out of contention, which is more likely, then I hope we are shipping off Alexei, De Aza, Downs, Lindstrom, and Gordon all somewhere.

[southsider2k5]

I don't think that being in contention will make the Sox buyers, but it may make them non-sellers.

 

I don't think they have ever been "sellers" in the traditional sense of the word. They put players out there, but they also kept anyone they didn't think they were getting value for. If not, guys like De Aza and Alexei wouldn't be here this year. I would bet they stay consistent to that. If someone was willing to back up the truck for a near to free agent guy, he would be gone. They aren't just going to take the "best offer" if that offer isn't good enough.

[Kyyle23]

I got attacked on the boards for complaining about our wretched bullpen, saying otherwise the Sox could be contenders this year. So I would suspect everybody insists the team will be sellers, big-time sellers.

 

Hmm, that reads a lot different than "If the Sox kept Addison Reed, they would win 90-95 games"

[Eminor3rd]

Hmm, that reads a lot different than "If the Sox kept Addison Reed, they would win 90-95 games"

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Hmm, that reads a lot different than "If the Sox kept Addison Reed, they would win 90-95 games"

 

63 wins

+40 saves

-7 saves from someone else

=PROFIT!

[greg775]

Hmm, that reads a lot different than "If the Sox kept Addison Reed, they would win 90-95 games"

 

Find that quote of mine and I'll buy you a beer someday. Never said that. Said we could win this crap division (if Sale was healthy as well) and got attacked.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Find that quote of mine and I'll buy you a beer someday. Never said that. Said we could win this crap division (if Sale was healthy as well) and got attacked.

 

Yeah, good luck with that. It's not as funny to quote what someone actually said. The point isn't to be accurate, it's to be funny.

[RadioHost]

If the Sox are buyers 3 months from now, I could see a Brett Myers type acquisition. Where the Sox wouldn't have to give up any key pieces to their farm system. Or maybe a player that will be here in 2015 as well. I don't see any 2 month rentals, unless the Sox don't have to give up any future MLB prospects.

[Quin]

Find that quote of mine and I'll buy you a beer someday. Never said that. Said we could win this crap division (if Sale was healthy as well) and got attacked.

 

Ask and thou shalt receive.

It shouldn't be. Not in this pathetic division. It was winnable with Reed IMO.

Edited April 28, 2014 by Quinarvy

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Ask and thou shalt receive.

 

[southsider2k5]

It shouldn't be. Not in this pathetic division. It was winnable with Reed IMO.

 

 

Yeah, good luck with that. It's not as funny to quote what someone actually said. The point isn't to be accurate, it's to be funny.

 

So how many wins do you think it will take to win the AL Central?

[caulfield12]

If we had Santos (5/6) or Reed (6/7), does anyone believe we'd be at least 2 games over .500 now?

 

Four games? SIX?

 

What about Peavy and/or Rios? Would both of them be worth a 2-4 game swing in the standings at this point?

 

What would our record with both Tanaka and Abreu be?

 

 

Of course, a lot depends on Sale, ultimately, without him...as Fathom pointed out, we're probably a 65-69 win team. Johnson coming back and being at least decent, as Carroll can't be counted on to go all Humber/Loaiza/Eldred for the remainder of the season.

 

We've added enough bullpen pieces to Charlotte (Guerra, Francisco, De Los Santos) and now Noesi there's hope that at least one of those guys, if not two, can ultimately succeed.

 

Nobody expected the starting pitching to be so bad, and the bullpen was filled with ? marks but not projected to be the worst in baseball, either. Ramirez, Viciedo, Flowers and Conor have all been playing better than expected...and, of course, Abreu. Even Dunn. The only offensive players we could/should be expecting improvement from would be DeAza and Semien (and perhaps Beckham, based on how bad most expect him to be). So if/when the offense comes back down to earth, some pitchers will start to improve or perform beyond expectations and we're still around .500, THEN you can look at those kinds of moves like YOUK/LIRIANO/MYERS that don't hurt you, but more likely, it's the moves like adding Contreras and Freddy Garcia, or when we've added Peavy/Rios in past years.

 

Yet adding payroll right now seems dubious at best because of our attendance issues. Just like "win now" moves that cost us valuable contributors to the 2015/16 teams. On the other hand, the fans are starting to get more and more excited about Abreu and the overall resiliency of the offense to come back over and over again in exciting fashion, so Hahn will have some serious thinking to do, considering the fact that we SEEM to be weathering this early season storm of playoff-caliber teams better than expected and having some stability/established roles at the back end of the pen (7th-9th) would do wonders for the confidence of the team going forward.

 

And only Hahn and Schneider seem to know when/if Nate Jones can be expected to contribute this season. That's the single biggest factor with our bullpen right now, the return/non-return of Jones. At least until June/July.

Edited April 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

Ask and thou shalt receive.

 

Ahahahahahahahaha

[caulfield12]

So how many wins do you think it will take to win the AL Central?

 

 

89-92.

 

Without Sanchez/Fister and a reliable bullpen, DET is more vulnerable than ever before.

 

They're not going to get much offensively from Romine. Rajai Davis isn't going to play this well all season. Their offense isn't nearly as formidable as it was in past seasons, IMO.

 

The biggest questions ultimately are the continued health of Verlander/Scherzer/Cabrera. If one of those three guys goes down or becomes ineffective for a long stretch, then DET is beatable.

 

With all of them playing at or close to near their peak levels, forget it.

Edited April 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[flavum]

I don't think that being in contention will make the Sox buyers, but it may make them non-sellers.

 

I agree. The bullpen might be a revolving door all year, but the Sox won't "go for it" by trading a Davidson or Micah Johnson, or something along those lines.

 

The Tigers are going to win 90+, and I don't see the Sox getting there. But there is a lot of parity in the league, and it's not out of the question that the second wildcard gets in with 87 or 88 wins. You don't mortgage the future for a one-game playoff, but if the Sox get healthy and the bullpen in order, they have a decent shot of hanging in there.

[Kyyle23]

Quinarvy can have my beer, greg

 

Yeah, good luck with that. It's not as funny to quote what someone actually said. The point isn't to be accurate, it's to be funny.

 

sometimes you can be both