Will Sox be buyers, not sellers, at the trade deadline?

[southsider2k5]

He can probably get 4 years and $80 million.

 

I see zero chance of it being that small.

 

He has been over 200 innings for 7 straight years now. He turns 33 in July. Unless he collapses or really gets hurt this season, I'd bet on a 5 to 6 year deal, starting at $20 million per year, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if it pushed more like $25 million.

 

There isn't a lot out there on the market this year. Max Scherzer is the clear #1, but after that, Shields is probably #2.

[Balta1701]

Max Scherzer is the clear #1, but after that, Shields is probably #2.

Lester #3 then?

[Bigsoxhurt35]

I would love to add a RHP starter in free agency.

[Princess Dye]

If we White Flag dunn away and this fanbase erupts in anger, that would be the ultimate pot/kettle/black situation

 

god i truncated that a la Hawk

[chw42]

I see zero chance of it being that small.

 

He has been over 200 innings for 7 straight years now. He turns 33 in July. Unless he collapses or really gets hurt this season, I'd bet on a 5 to 6 year deal, starting at $20 million per year, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if it pushed more like $25 million.

 

There isn't a lot out there on the market this year. Max Scherzer is the clear #1, but after that, Shields is probably #2.

 

If anything, the 1400+ innings he's pitched over the last 7 years hurts him more than it helps him.

 

That's a lot of mileage on his arm and pitchers don't always stay healthy once they get near their mid 30s.

[southsider2k5]

If anything, the 1400+ innings he's pitched over the last 7 years hurts him more than it helps him.

 

That's a lot of mileage on his arm and pitchers don't always stay healthy once they get near their mid 30s.

 

His lack of injury history will make it much easier to convince teams to add another year on to that deal, not harder.

[chw42]

His lack of injury history will make it much easier to convince teams to add another year on to that deal, not harder.

 

We're talking about a guy who's going to be 32.

 

He's not going to get 6-7 years, that's a bit crazy. He'll get his 4-5 years at a fair price.

 

We saw guys who were asking for 5 years and $100 million (like Ervin Santana) without a contract until March this off-season. Teams are definitely being more careful with pitchers, especially older ones.

[southsider2k5]

We're talking about a guy who's going to be 32.

 

He's not going to get 6-7 years, that's a bit crazy. He'll get his 4-5 years at a fair price.

 

We saw guys who were asking for 5 years and $100 million (like Ervin Santana) without a contract until March this off-season. Teams are definitely being more careful with pitchers, especially older ones.

 

Santana is no where near Shields. Not even in the same area code.

 

Those Tanaka, Grienke, and Kershaw deals play large here.

 

If I had to guess, I would say 6 years at around $23 million a year.

[Eminor3rd]

Shields' contract will be based on number of suitors. Free agency is less about what a guy is "worth" and more about how many people need him. Price is where supply meets demand.

[chw42]

Santana is no where near Shields. Not even in the same area code.

 

Those Tanaka, Grienke, and Kershaw deals play large here.

 

If I had to guess, I would say 6 years at around $23 million a year.

 

And Shields is nowhere near Tanaka, Kershaw, or Greinke.

 

He's a 4.5 WAR type pitcher who can be considered an ace on most teams. Age also plays a big part. The three guys you mentioned are all at least 2 years younger than Shields. When Greinke signed his contract, he was 29. I'd be willing to give a guy with 4.5 WAR talent (which Grienke does and then some) 6 years and $123 million at 29. I'd be very hesitant to do the same for a guy who's 32.

 

Edit: Shields will actually be 33 come the 2015 season.

Edited April 29, 2014 by chw42

[Balta1701]

And Shields is nowhere near Tanaka, Kershaw, or Greinke.

 

He's a 4.5 WAR type pitcher who can be considered an ace on most teams. Age also plays a big part. The three guys you mentioned are all at least 2 years younger than Shields. When Greinke signed his contract, he was 29. I'd be willing to give a guy with 4.5 WAR talent (which Grienke does and then some) 6 years and $123 million at 29. I'd be very hesitant to do the same for a guy who's 32.

Let's also note that for a long term deal Lester is on the market as well at 3 years younger. With him and Scherzer that means at least 2 teams will be throwing around $150 million+ deals for pitchers, that could eat into Shields's market somewhat as well.

[ILMOU]

[/b]

 

Why? I think he goes for at least nine figures.

And if we're ready to compete, that won't be too much. It's the market, and we'll have the funds.

[southsider2k5]

And Shields is nowhere near Tanaka, Kershaw, or Greinke.

 

He's a 4.5 WAR type pitcher who can be considered an ace on most teams. Age also plays a big part. The three guys you mentioned are all at least 2 years younger than Shields. When Greinke signed his contract, he was 29. I'd be willing to give a guy with 4.5 WAR talent (which Grienke does and then some) 6 years and $123 million at 29. I'd be very hesitant to do the same for a guy who's 32.

 

Edit: Shields will actually be 33 come the 2015 season.

 

I said he would be 33 earlier.

 

Grienke also has his social anxiety problem, which held down his deal.

 

Anyways, those contracts are all bigger than what I would speculate for Shields, but they are also all going to be a year older when Shields signs his next year. The #1 starter never goes out of demand. Teams are probably also going to look at Shields as a "cheaper" alternative to Scherzer and maybe even Lester. After those top three pitchers, the talent level takes a big dive. Teams are going to be looking at that too.

[caulfield12]

And Shields is nowhere near Tanaka, Kershaw, or Greinke.

 

He's a 4.5 WAR type pitcher who can be considered an ace on most teams. Age also plays a big part. The three guys you mentioned are all at least 2 years younger than Shields. When Greinke signed his contract, he was 29. I'd be willing to give a guy with 4.5 WAR talent (which Grienke does and then some) 6 years and $123 million at 29. I'd be very hesitant to do the same for a guy who's 32.

 

Edit: Shields will actually be 33 come the 2015 season.

 

Except Greinke got $147 million.

 

Masterson's more likely to be the pitcher available for numbers quite similar to Erwin Santana (around $65-85 million for a longer term deal, compared to his $100+ asking price) than Shields/Scherzer/Greinke.

 

http://www.kansascity.com/2014/03/04/48648...n-in-sight.html

Everyone expects a minimum of $100 million and highest aspirations are Greinke's level. Barring a huge, almost unprecedented White Sox attendance turnaround (given the 8 year slide), the White Sox historically want to spread that money around instead of putting all their eggs in one basket (starter, bullpen, LH hitter, etc.)

 

The exceptions, of course, are Abreu and Tanaka. But with Shields, we're talking possibly double Abreu's deal. No way.

Edited April 29, 2014 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

I've said it before, but here's how our offseason should look:

 

1) Sign the best free agent starter within reason

 

2) Sign best free agent left-handed bat within reason

 

3) Trade for legit starting catcher

 

4) Shore up bullpen as needed

 

The first two items only cost money and we should have plenty available. The third item will cost some prospects, but our system is much improved. There's no guarantee we accomplish all these moves obviously, but it's definitely within the realm of possibility.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Saying Shields won't get a $100 million contract because Santana didn't get one is ridiculous. Santana hasn't been the model for consistency that Shields has been. Santana isn't close to Shields.

 

I like Shields but I wouldn't sign him I don't think because of his age.

[beautox]

What happens if they get hot and are actually in 1st place around the deadline?

You count your lucky stars and still take this year as a rebuilding one. It would be foolish to accept that being in contention we shouldn't leverage all our assets to maintain a window that'll last 6-8 years of strong contention starting as soon as '15. There are three options that could conceivably replace Alexei at a fraction of the cost in this order Semien, Sanchez and Saladino. Alexei getting traded at the deadline would be owed 15.75M guaranteed or 24.75 till 2016. Thats an additional 10M to put towards our needs going forward the sox could conceivably spend 40-60M next offseason.

 

 

[Rowand44]

You count your lucky stars and still take this year as a rebuilding one. It would be foolish to accept that being in contention we shouldn't leverage all our assets to maintain a window that'll last 6-8 years of strong contention starting as soon as '15. There are three options that could conceivably replace Alexei at a fraction of the cost in this order Semien, Sanchez and Saladino. Alexei getting traded at the deadline would be owed 15.75M guaranteed or 24.75 till 2016. Thats an additional 10M to put towards our needs going forward the sox could conceivably spend 40-60M next offseason.

I strongly disagree. If we're a contender, we shouldn't trade assets just because we're ahead of schedule.

[beautox]

I strongly disagree. If we're a contender, we shouldn't trade assets just because we're ahead of schedule.

the sox should be selling high on a resurgent Dunn and Ramirez if it brings back a solid return. Its always better to trade a year to early than a year to late and if Alexei is on pace for a 3.5-4WAR season there is no better time than cash in the chips with him, Especially with the log jam of MI prospects behind him.

[LDF]

I've said it before, but here's how our offseason should look:

 

1) Sign the best free agent starter within reason

 

2) Sign best free agent left-handed bat within reason

 

3) Trade for legit starting catcher

 

4) Shore up bullpen as needed

 

The first two items only cost money and we should have plenty available. The third item will cost some prospects, but our system is much improved. There's no guarantee we accomplish all these moves obviously, but it's definitely within the realm of possibility.

 

I strongly agree with a lot of poster here in this thread, esp you and Rowand.

 

lets not mortgage our future, even thou we may not be as flush as we thought we were. this short season really identify

the glaring hole in our system. who know maybe Johnson and Paulino may make a turn-around and come back.

 

your # 1, 2, 4 I agree, but I don't think we should trade but sign a fa for the catcher position. even if its for 2 or 3 yrs. the

price of trading may be too steep of a price to pay.

 

[daggins]

Signing top FA talent may cost draft picks - have to wait and see how the market shakes out w/ regards to the qualifying offer.

 

I think if the Sox are in striking distance they should not let that deter them from filling holes long term and building a strong farm.

 

Fortunately they don't have to trade anyone but Dunn and some bullpen guys before the year is out. They have the offseason to field offers for guys like Danks, Alexei, Dayan, etc.

[VAfan]

Ideas in this thread I think are just WRONG.

 

1. Sox will trade Alexei Ramirez. This isn't happening. Ramirez is a key building block on a playoff caliber team. If you trade him, you've taken a major step backward. There is no one on the club or in the minors who could possibly take his place, and no team is going to trade us a young Alexei Ramirez for the older Alexei Ramirez. I expect the Sox to ride him as long as he's playing well. I believe that he's also been a factor is luring other talented Cubans to the team, which cannot be underestimated.

 

2. Sox will trade Adam Dunn at the deadline. This is still possible if the Sox collapse, but the premise of my thread is that is less likely to happen than continued contention in the tight AL Central. If you look at Dunn's line so far, he's hitting as well as he has in many years -- really at the level that led the Sox to sign him in the first place. As the only power lefty in the Sox lineup, I don't see the Sox letting him go this year, since there is no alternative available.

 

Indeed, here's an idea I may float in its own thread -- if Adam Dunn completes the year with a line like he has so far, and had in 2009 and 2010 for Washington, or even 2012 for the Sox -- I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox brought him back on a two-year deal for less money - say $8-10M/year. And I think Dunn would happily sign for that to be part of an up-and-coming team. We have all had our limit of Adam Dunn, but you can't deny that the numbers he is putting up at the moment make him a valuable part of our new lineup.

 

My view is that the Sox will tinker around the edges during the season in an attempt to improve this year and beyond. They might trade Beckham because they have the replacement on the roster. They might move DeAza if a better left fielder can be had, or if Jordan Danks is given enough time in the lineup to outplay him. But these are insignificant moves, as neither guy has much value.

 

As I see it, the Sox rebuild among their regulars is mostly complete.

 

Who's a for sure next season?

- Abreu 1B

- Eaton CF

- Garcia RF

- Ramirez SS

 

Next level of confidence

- Viciedo LF (might DH if we get a lefty power bat who plays a better LF) -- starting the season, this was a huge question, but his new approach puts him solidly in the mix.

- Semien 2B -- even with his Ks, it's pretty clear that Semien is going to become our regular 2B.

 

Next level

- Davidson/Gillaspie 3B -- this position will be in flux until one of them really establishes himself.

- Flowers C -- if Flowers hits reasonably well, he fills the catcher spot

 

That leaves potentially only one slot that needs to be filled - DH (or LF) - with a lefty power bat.

 

If Adam Dunn continues hitting like he has, he'll be a possibility for that spot.

 

I know this is counter to what most guys here have been thinking. But I don't see the Sox as having any major players they can trade at this point -- other than guys who (a) shouldn't be traded because it will create a huge hole, like Alexei Ramirez or (b) wouldn't bring much in return, like Adam Dunn, since he'd only be a short-term rental.

 

The Sox are going to need to finish their rebuilding project by (a) signing a key free agent or two, (b) continuing the development work with guys like Erik Johnson and Webb, © drafting well, and (d) continuing their reclamation project ways to fill in role players.

Edited April 30, 2014 by VAfan

[RockRaines]

I strongly disagree. If we're a contender, we shouldn't trade assets just because we're ahead of schedule.

Dunn isn't an asset.

[Kyyle23]

Ideas in this thread I think are just WRONG.

 

1. Sox will trade Alexei Ramirez. This isn't happening. Ramirez is a key building block on a playoff caliber team. If you trade him, you've taken a major step backward. There is no one on the club or in the minors who could possibly take his place, and no team is going to trade us a young Alexei Ramirez for the older Alexei Ramirez. I expect the Sox to ride him as long as he's playing well. I believe that he's also been a factor is luring other talented Cubans to the team, which cannot be underestimated.

 

2. Sox will trade Adam Dunn at the deadline. This is still possible if the Sox collapse, but the premise of my thread is that is less likely to happen than continued contention in the tight AL Central. If you look at Dunn's line so far, he's hitting as well as he has in many years -- really at the level that led the Sox to sign him in the first place. As the only power lefty in the Sox lineup, I don't see the Sox letting him go this year, since there is no alternative available.

 

Indeed, here's an idea I may float in its own thread -- if Adam Dunn completes the year with a line like he has so far, and had in 2009 and 2010 for Washington, or even 2012 for the Sox -- I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox brought him back on a two-year deal for less money - say $8-10M/year. And I think Dunn would happily sign for that to be part of an up-and-coming team. We have all had our limit of Adam Dunn, but you can't deny that the numbers he is putting up at the moment make him a valuable part of our new lineup.

 

My view is that the Sox will tinker around the edges during the season in an attempt to improve this year and beyond. They might trade Beckham because they have the replacement on the roster. They might move DeAza if a better left fielder can be had, or if Jordan Danks is given enough time in the lineup to outplay him. But these are insignificant moves, as neither guy has much value.

 

As I see it, the Sox rebuild among their regulars is mostly complete.

 

Who's a for sure next season?

- Abreu 1B

- Eaton CF

- Garcia RF

- Ramirez SS

 

Next level of confidence

- Viciedo LF (might DH if we get a lefty power bat who plays a better LF) -- starting the season, this was a huge question, but his new approach puts him solidly in the mix.

- Semien 2B -- even with his Ks, it's pretty clear that Semien is going to become our regular 2B.

 

Next level

- Carpenter/Gillaspie 3B -- this position will be in flux until one of them really establishes himself.

- Flowers C -- if Flowers hits reasonably well, he fills the catcher spot

 

That leaves potentially only one slot that needs to be filled - DH (or LF) - with a lefty power bat.

 

If Adam Dunn continues hitting like he has, he'll be a possibility for that spot.

 

I know this is counter to what most guys here have been thinking. But I don't see the Sox as having any major players they can trade at this point -- other than guys who (a) shouldn't be traded because it will create a huge hole, like Alexei Ramirez or (b) wouldn't bring much in return, like Adam Dunn, since he'd only be a short-term rental.

 

The Sox are going to need to finish their rebuilding project by (a) signing a key free agent or two, (b) continuing the development work with guys like Erik Johnson and Webb, © drafting well, and (d) continuing their reclamation project ways to fill in role players.

 

Davidson?

[RockRaines]

Believing in resigning Dunn stops your entire post from being realistic. Adam Dunn has no spot in this organization past this summer.