Tyler Flowers's lucky, lucky month

[Feeky Magee]

I know a couple of folks in the gamethreads are a little weary of my fascination with Tyler Flowers and his BABIP, so I said I'd make a separate thread for it. BABIP, in case some don't know, measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits. Typically it will be between .290 and .310 - some players have certain skill-sets or deficiencies that can make this a bit higher or lower - but any strong deviation should be expected to regress to career average. Therefore a high/low BABIP is often seen as a good measurement of good/bad luck for a hitter.

 

Tyler Flowers's BABIP for the year currently sits at a cool .600.

 

6 out of every 10 balls he has put in play have landed for hits. Even with this start, his career average is .310, so he's shown no particular tendency to have a much higher BABIP than average.

 

Because I'm currently single, I had a look at BABIP history for March/April. Amongst qualified hitters (Flowers will fall barely short of being qualified by April 30th, but I plugged in similar plate appearance records to Flowers for a few of the years and it made no difference) since 1974 (Fangraphs doesn't appear to track BABIP any further back), the 3 highest BABIPs for March/April are as follows:

 

Pete Rose 1976 - .531

Bo Jackson 1990 - .531

Austin Jackson 2010 - .530

 

Apart from that cluster of 3, there were perhaps 5 or 6 even over .500. Flowers is at .600. Given the chasm between himself and second place since 1974, I would guess that nobody has ever gone higher.

 

We are experiencing a hitter have perhaps the luckiest ever opening month in major league baseball.

[Jose Abreu]

He has 25 singles this month. He had 29 singles last year.

[Jose Abreu]

Because I'm currently single, I had a look at BABIP history for March/April. Amongst qualified hitters (Flowers will fall barely short of being qualified by April 30th, but I plugged in similar plate appearance records to Flowers for a few of the years and it made no difference) since 1974 (Fangraphs doesn't appear to track BABIP any further back), the 3 highest BABIPs for March/April are as follows:

[Feeky Magee]

2014 BABIP, 80+ PAs:

 

1. Tyler Flowers - .600

2. Jason Kubel - .440

3. Justin Upton - .440

[BigEdWalsh]

He has 25 singles this month. He had 29 singles last year.

I like THIS Flowers.

[Princess Dye]

Sure luck has been on Flowers' side, but lets not forget that bloops coming from very strong hitters.......those often are not necessarily all 'luck.' If you're really strong, you have the ability to fight off pitches into the shallow OF that weaker hitters cannot. So if you're doing that it's not entirely 'luck' as it is happening because of an ability you bring to the table.

 

Otherwise, we're then saying the only 'earned' hits are the beautiful looking ones, and that is not true.

Edited April 29, 2014 by Jose Paniagua

[southsider2k5]

Honestly, I am more impressed with Flowers improvement behind the plate.

[Feeky Magee]

Sure luck has been on Flowers' side, but lets not forget that bloops coming from very strong hitters.......those often are not necessarily all 'luck.' If you're really strong, you have the ability to fight off pitches into the shallow OF that weaker hitters cannot. So if you're doing that it's not entirely 'luck' as it is happening because of an ability you bring to the table.

 

Otherwise, we're then saying the only 'earned' hits are the beautiful looking ones, and that is not true.

How come then that his BABIPs for 2011, 2012 and 2013 were .261, .301 and .261?

[Feeky Magee]

Also - plural for BABIP. BABIPs? BABIP? BAsBIP?

[daggins]

Sure luck has been on Flowers' side, but lets not forget that bloops coming from very strong hitters.......those often are not necessarily all 'luck.' If you're really strong, you have the ability to fight off pitches into the shallow OF that weaker hitters cannot. So if you're doing that it's not entirely 'luck' as it is happening because of an ability you bring to the table.

 

Otherwise, we're then saying the only 'earned' hits are the beautiful looking ones, and that is not true.

 

Its a little more than just Flowers being lucky. He has been supremely, extraordinarily lucky. His K% is right around 35% like it was last year. At some point this year he is going to be unusable as a major league catcher - i'm just glad he delayed the need for action by a couple months.

[nickofypres]

Also - plural for BABIP. BABIPs? BABIP? BAsBIP?

 

For plural I use it singular, like ravioli, or broccoli.

 

"Lets look at Flowers, Konerko, and De Aza's BABIP" for example. I think it sounds fine that way. But that is just me.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Honestly, I am more impressed with Flowers improvement behind the plate.

Same here.

[2nd_city_saint787]

[Jose Abreu]

For plural I use it singular, like ravioli, or broccoli.

 

"Lets look at Flowers, Konerko, and De Aza's BABIP" for example. I think it sounds fine that way. But that is just me.

I do too, but I guess it could be BAsBIP.

[Feeky Magee]

Its a little more than just Flowers being lucky. He has been supremely, extraordinarily lucky. His K% is right around 35% like it was last year. At some point this year he is going to be unusable as a major league catcher - i'm just glad he delayed the need for action by a couple months.

Well, he does seem to have genuinely improved defensively, which could allow him to put up positive value (narrowly) even with last year's offence. But yeah, obviously shouldn't be the long-term option.

[Princess Dye]

At some point this year he is going to be unusable as a major league catcher - i'm just glad he delayed the need for action by a couple months.

 

Why isnt it possible he's that 700 or so OPS guy from before the shoulder-injury 2013, maybe with a little ability to be slightly better than that? The minor league numbers bear out this as a perfectly reasonable end result for him.

 

Sure he'll come back down to earth but he really hasnt played that much at this level, just seems like it. And defensively, he's just kinda A-OK nothing special but it works.

Edited April 29, 2014 by Jose Paniagua

[Feeky Magee]

I wonder if it is the highest ever BABIP in a month. I only looked at 40 months (counting March/April as one) of the (I think) 852 months of regular season MLB so far, so less than 5%, but .600 to .531 is such a big lead that I think there's a chance.

[Eminor3rd]

I wonder if it is the highest ever BABIP in a month. I only looked at 40 months (counting March/April as one) of the (I think) 852 months of regular season MLB so far, so less than 5%, but .600 to .531 is such a big lead that I think there's a chance.

 

Seems like Josh Hamilton had some high BABIP months during his MVP year.

[Thomas_Ventura_Roberts]

When we acquired Flowers from Atlanta, his reputation was of a guy who probably would be quite productive offensively in the major leagues, but that he would need to focus on his pitch handling and defense. For whatever reason, he is a big strong guy who is now healthy and has gone back to more of his batting style when he was in the Atlanta organization. Our hitting coach feels he is doing a better job of recognizing and reacting to hittable pitches and staying within himself. I don't know how he will end up this year, but his current performance may better reflect his major league hitting abilities than his performance before now.

 

[JohnCangelosi]

I'm glad someone looked at this because I was wondering about this. It seems that Tyler has had a LOT of hits where he has caught it off the end of the bat and dunked it into left center field this year.

 

But he's hitting balls a lot harder when he makes contact so that's worth mentioning. But a .600 BABIP? Wow, I didn't think that number was possible. But I also guess it's due to a high K rate as well.

 

 

 

[Ozzie Ball]

Seems like Josh Hamilton had some high BABIP months during his MVP year.

.500 BABIP in June that year, .450 in July, next highest was .363.

[Jerksticks]

I understand BABIP but I don't get the idea that it should eventually normalize over a full season. His K% sucks, his BB% sucks, he isn't showing power. But why can't he keep getting cheap hits all season? All career Mr. Cheapy?

[Eminor3rd]

I understand BABIP but I don't get the idea that it should eventually normalize over a full season. His K% sucks, his BB% sucks, he isn't showing power. But why can't he keep getting cheap hits all season? All career Mr. Cheapy?

 

It's possible that it won't normalize, it's just never happened that way in the history of baseball. So it is singularly unlikely.

 

The reason we say it "should" normalize is that research shows that it always has. Not because we can't imagine a situation where it might act differently -- because we can. It's just that situation is unprecedented.

Edited April 29, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[NorthSideSox72]

Yes he's been very, very lucky.

 

But also yes, he's improved his approach noticeably.

 

He'll regress of course, but that doesn't mean he's suddenly going to go right back to last year's numbers either.

 

[southsider2k5]

I understand BABIP but I don't get the idea that it should eventually normalize over a full season. His K% sucks, his BB% sucks, he isn't showing power. But why can't he keep getting cheap hits all season? All career Mr. Cheapy?

 

My two cents is that the guy made an obvious change in his approach. Pitching on the outer half he is trying to push to the right side. I see it also with Dayan, Gordon, and Alexei this year too. Especially with two strikes, he shortens up his swing and just tries to serve it up over the head of the 2B. The book on Flowers used to be something moving away from him, because he would try to yank it to the foul pole and either roll over on it, or just miss it.

 

My guess it that soon enough pitchers abandon going to the outer half against Flowers with two strikes, and instead start going high/hard around letter high. It seems to me that is where most of his K's have come. Once that change is made, his numbers will start to normalize until he shows he can layoff of the high heat.