5/4 Games

[ILMOU]

Right now, without doing a ton of research (with Abreu, Semien, EJ, Webb all graduating), I'd probably go with these guys above Danish...

 

Anderson

Davidson

M Johnson

Hawkins

Thompson

Sanchez

Ravelo

 

Possibly Beck also, but I think I'd have to give the nod to Danish. I guess more so than 8-10, I'd go 7-9 range, now that I look at it. This comes from the fact that I think he's either 4-ish starter, or a setup reliever, depending on how his body holds up. And I see a significant chance it doesn't hold up.

 

Weird how much the system has changed in a short period - that is 7 position players before I'd feel comfortable putting in a pitcher.

 

Caveat - this can change a lot between now and the next list (July/August), and in fact their first draft pick will almost assuredly be #1, and their 2nd round guy may even break into the top 10.

I predict he'll be our highest ranked prospect heading into next season and the only caveats will be due to his unorthodox mechanics. Time will tell.

 

And please find a way to get Medeiros with our second pick in this draft, if only to complete the travelling freakshow of doom we'll have in a few years with Sale and Danish.

[NorthSideSox72]

I really don't see an argument for Carlos Sanchez being the superior prospect to Tyler Danish.

Many others will likely agree.

 

I see a guy who is still very young for level at AAA, who can play above average defense and mutliple MIF positions, who hit very well for average with good batter's eye up through 2012, and who is now seemingly getting back to that level. In Danish, I see his likely ceiling as a #4 starter, maybe #3 tops, but with a lot of risk about holding up or not, and more likely he's a reliever who gets ground balls. And while one player is at AAA and on the doorstep, the other one is also young but has little experience and has a ways to go.

 

To be clear, obviously, I hope Danish holds up just fine, because a 3/4 starter is worth a lot. I am just highly skeptical, at this point, that such is the likely outcome.

 

[Dunt]

Right now, without doing a ton of research (with Abreu, Semien, EJ, Webb all graduating), I'd probably go with these guys above Danish...

 

Anderson

Davidson

M Johnson

Hawkins

Thompson

Sanchez

Ravelo

 

Possibly Beck also, but I think I'd have to give the nod to Danish. I guess more so than 8-10, I'd go 7-9 range, now that I look at it. This comes from the fact that I think he's either 4-ish starter, or a setup reliever, depending on how his body holds up. And I see a significant chance it doesn't hold up.

 

Weird how much the system has changed in a short period - that is 7 position players before I'd feel comfortable putting in a pitcher.

 

Caveat - this can change a lot between now and the next list (July/August), and in fact their first draft pick will almost assuredly be #1, and their 2nd round guy may even break into the top 10.

 

I understand the first 4, and while I know you are much more versed in these things than I, there is no way i'd put any of the last 3 ahead of Danish at this time.

[NorthSideSox72]

I understand the first 4, and while I know you are much more versed in these things than I, there is no way i'd put any of the last 3 ahead of Danish at this time.

I know it isn't a popular opinion, even among others who are also well-versed in the system. I don't pretend to know it all on these guys, I'm guessing too. I just have bigger concerns about him than others do, it appears. I would be ecstatic to be wrong on this one.

 

[witesoxfan]

As excited as we are about Danish, he's still doing this in Low-A and that's absolutely something that needs to be taken into consideration. Yes, he's age appropriate, but about the only way I would consider a guy that highly is if he has very, very loud tools, which is something Danish doesn't have.

 

Plus, it's been 1 month. Guys have done that before and fallen completely off the map.

 

Let's give him more time.

[caulfield12]

Ravelo probably shouldn't be higher than Danish unless he's a 3B or LHH. And he's got to prove he can stay healthy for much longer than one month or so. (In that sense, he's on the same watch as Adam Eaton health-wise).

 

Sanchez has to hit at better than a 650 OPS clip to be anything more than a utility player. Most of us would have Semien and Micah ahead of Sanchez, for the moment.

 

Would anyone be REALLY upset if Sanchez was traded? I think more would be upset with Danish being dealt, not unlike the initial response here to the inclusion of Holmberg in the Hudson deal. It's not so much velocity, as his unique style being particularly effective (at least for now). And we don't know if they're deliberately telling him to worry less about velocity and more about movement and command.

Edited May 5, 2014 by caulfield12

[NorthSideSox72]

Ravelo probably shouldn't be higher than Danish unless he's a 3B or LHH. And he's got to prove he can stay healthy for much longer than one month or so. (In that sense, he's on the same watch as Adam Eaton health-wise).

 

Sanchez has to hit at better than a 650 OPS clip to be anything more than a utility player. Most of us would have Semien and Micah ahead of Sanchez, for the moment.

 

Would anyone be REALLY upset if Sanchez was traded? I think more would be upset with Danish being dealt, not unlike the initial response here to the inclusion of Holmberg in the Hudson deal. It's not so much velocity, as his unique style being particularly effective (at least for now). And we don't know if they're deliberately telling him to worry less about velocity and more about movement and command.

How upset people would be if someone was traded is not the same as how good they are as prospects in a ranking lists. Other factors come into play there. Sanchez' (likely) floor and ceiling have come closer to one another, which is what happens when guys are in AAA, so he's a known commodity. Chances are, his ceiling is a slightly-above replacement level 2B or SS, and his floor is an effective utility player. Danish's ceiling is, in my view, maybe a mid-rotation starter but more likely slightly behind that, and a very possible floor is he never sees the majors. At that low level he's pitching at, you value for ceiling. But for the value to the org long-term, you take the broader possibilities into view.

 

[ILMOU]

As excited as we are about Danish, he's still doing this in Low-A and that's absolutely something that needs to be taken into consideration. Yes, he's age appropriate, but about the only way I would consider a guy that highly is if he has very, very loud tools, which is something Danish doesn't have.

 

Plus, it's been 1 month. Guys have done that before and fallen completely off the map.

 

Let's give him more time.

As to first bolded, try super-young for league, and when promoted soon to Carolina League will be about the youngest.

 

As to second bolded, no, he has plenty loud tools, just not the ones you're used to looking for. Anyway, time will tell.

You, and the other non-believers will learn, even if it requires being dragged kicking and screaming into the light, eventually kneeling before his awesomeness.

Edited May 5, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[NorthSideSox72]

As to first bolded, try super-young for league, and when promoted soon to Carolina League will be about the youngest.

 

As to second bolded, no, he has plenty loud tools, just not the ones you're used to looking for. Anyway, time will tell.

You, and the other non-believers will learn, even if it requires being dragged kicking and screaming into the light, eventually kneeling before his awesomeness.

Yeah, he's young for level. He has a dancing, sinking fastball, but it also isn't one he can throw consistently above upper 80's. His slider flashes loud, but is a WIP. So no, he really doesn't have any one "loud" tool.

 

I hope you're right, I just am not convinced enough yet to make him a top 5 talent in the current system. That could easily change.

 

[caulfield12]

Yeah, he's young for level. He has a dancing, sinking fastball, but it also isn't one he can throw consistently above upper 80's. His slider flashes loud, but is a WIP. So no, he really doesn't have any one "loud" tool.

 

I hope you're right, I just am not convinced enough yet to make him a top 5 talent in the current system. That could easily change.

 

Isn't a wipeout pitch?

[ILMOU]

Yeah, he's young for level. He has a dancing, sinking fastball, but it also isn't one he can throw consistently above upper 80's. His slider flashes loud, but is a WIP. So no, he really doesn't have any one "loud" tool.

 

I hope you're right, I just am not convinced enough yet to make him a top 5 talent in the current system. That could easily change.

Think if Uehara were a starter, amp it down slightly, add some rapid-fire deception, and you've got Danish. Time will tell.

 

And his deception and delivery plays up all his pitches. And he's a RHP that can't be run on. 62 pitches - he's obviously just trying to be efficient, that's crazy efficient, but still strikes guys out. When they cut him loose, he'll strike out plenty more.

Edited May 5, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[gatnom]

Isn't a wipeout pitch?

 

Work in progress? Seems to fit what I've heard about the pitch.

 

 

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Work in progress? Seems to fit what I've heard about the pitch.

That's what I was trying for. Can show very well, but not consistently yet.

 

[witesoxfan]

Think if Uehara were a starter, amp it down slightly, add some rapid-fire deception, and you've got Danish. Time will tell.

 

And his deception and delivery plays up all his pitches. And he's a RHP that can't be run on. 62 pitches - he's obviously just trying to be efficient, that's crazy efficient, but still strikes guys out. When they cut him loose, he'll strike out plenty more.

 

I've never doubted the guy, but merely giving reasons why he's going to be pushed "down" a prospect big board (because it's not as if being a top 5-10 prospect as a 19 year old in Low-A is down).

 

BTW, Uehara did begin his MLB career as a starter, but durability became a major concern. Danish's profile is more that of a reliever and that's not going to end up in the top 5 of many minor league rankings.

Edited May 5, 2014 by witesoxfan

[Jake]

The problem with Sanchez is how low his upside is. 2 homers in 1800+ PAs so far in his career and not a whole lot of other XBH either. He's a guy who looks like he will have to bat .300 to be worth a damn at the plate

[witesoxfan]

The problem with Sanchez is how low his upside is. 2 homers in 1800+ PAs so far in his career and not a whole lot of other XBH either. He's a guy who looks like he will have to bat .300 to be worth a damn at the plate

 

*ahem* 3 homers, thank you very much

 

I think that he will be more "powerful" than that, but I'm not expecting him to even hit double digit homers at any level.

[caulfield12]

I've never doubted the guy, but merely giving reasons why he's going to be pushed "down" a prospect big board (because it's not as if being a top 5-10 prospect as a 19 year old in Low-A is down).

 

BTW, Uehara did begin his MLB career as a starter, but durability became a major concern. Danish's profile is more that of a reliever and that's not going to end up in the top 5 of many minor league rankings.

 

 

What was Addison's highest ranking in the Sox system?

[ILMOU]

I've never doubted the guy, but merely giving reasons why he's going to be pushed "down" a prospect big board (because it's not as if being a top 5-10 prospect as a 19 year old in Low-A is down).

 

BTW, Uehara did begin his MLB career as a starter, but durability became a major concern. Danish's profile is more that of a reliever and that's not going to end up in the top 5 of many minor league rankings.

Same things were said about Sale. TWT.

[NorthSideSox72]

Same things were said about Sale. TWT.

That may be true, but these are very different pitchers. Yes they both have henky deliveries, but otherwise they are dramatically different cases.

 

[witesoxfan]

Same things were said about Sale. TWT.

 

Are you going to compare Tyler Danish to Chris Sale?

[ILMOU]

Are you going to compare Tyler Danish to Chris Sale?

Did not do that. Just that Sale was older than Danish is now, pre-draft, when a large percentage of pundits had him pegged for a reliever.

 

These guys hedge and are inherently risk-adverse. Fortunately for us, Laumann and the braintrust are not. DL has said that they may have even taken TD in the first round, had they feared someone else would take him in between.

[witesoxfan]

Did not do that. Just that Sale was older than Danish is now, pre-draft, when a large percentage of pundits had him pegged for a reliever.

 

These guys hedge and are inherently risk-adverse. Fortunately for us, Laumann and the braintrust are not. DL has said that they may have even taken TD in the first round, had they feared someone else would take him in between.

 

Even if you aren't comparing them, Sale had super loud tools. As a reliever, he averaged 95-96 with his fastball on top of having a good changeup and slider.

 

I have no problem with you believing that Tyler Danish is a top 5 prospect (or higher) in the White Sox system, I just don't want you to expect it to be widely agreed with.

[ILMOU]

I have no problem with you believing that Tyler Danish is a top 5 prospect (or higher) in the White Sox system, I just don't want you to expect it to be widely agreed with.

Truly don't care if anyone agrees currently, or not. Things change.

[southsider2k5]

Truly don't care if anyone agrees currently, or not. Things change.

 

FWIW, I think I would have Danish around #5 as well.

[gatnom]

FWIW, I think I would have Danish around #5 as well.

 

Danish at ~5 seems about right, pre-draft.