5/4 Games

[Chicago White Sox]

Honestly, with the way Beck has been pitching this year, Danish probably will overtake him and become our #2 pitching prospect after whoever we take in the draft. I think that Anderson, Hawkins, & Micah Johnson should all be above him without question. You can make a case for a couple other guys depending on how the rest of their seasons go (Thompson, May, Sanchez, Ravelo), but right now I'd predict him coming in at #5.

[southsider2k5]

Honestly, with the way Beck has been pitching this year, Danish probably will overtake him and become our #2 pitching prospect after whoever we take in the draft. I think that Anderson, Hawkins, & Micah Johnson should all be above him without question. You can make a case for a couple other guys depending on how the rest of their seasons go (Thompson, May, Sanchez, Ravelo), but right now I'd predict him coming in at #5.

 

I would say that Danish has a chance to be a Mark Buehrle type pitcher, where it isn't necessarily the pure stuff that will beat you, but the kid has a completely unique delivery and motion. He does have decent stuff on top of it. His delivery has a right handed Chris Sale vibe to it, being a lot of arms and legs.

 

He has about the quickest moves to 1B and homeplate that any one in all of baseball has from the sounds of it. Those two things will help him to reduce a lot of damage against him, as it will turn lots of baserunners into station to station guys, and it makes him harder to pick up, even if he stuff isn't top notch.

 

Personally I would put the Anderson/Davidson/M Johnson/Hawkins group ahead of him right now, because of the doubt about his being able to hold up to 200 IP a year. If he can make it as a starter, that will give him huge value. I wouldn't put low ceiling guys like Sanchez or Ravelo ahead of him for sure.

[ILMOU]

For the record:

I share concerns about the Dane's long-term health as a starter, but only slightly more concern than I would about any pitcher with more conventional mechanics. Let's look at the valid and semi-valid criticisms.

 

He profiles as a reliever. Arodys Vizcaino of the Cubs, who's had two major throwing arm injuries, profiles as a reliever. Our guy's healthy as a horse, but it's really early in his career, so we'll see what he's capable of.

 

He has those funky mechanics, he'll get hurt and then relegated to relief. Within the descriptions of the mechanics, you're hearing some of the analysts already saying things like "his delivery is surprisingly clean" - btw, this is nearly the exact verbiage you see in more recent descriptions of Sale (to reiterate, I will not be comparing Tyler's performance to Sale's and fully realize they are very different types of pitchers, and that Sale's measurable tools are much louder)

 

His frame won't be durable enough for starting, though. He's listed at 6' 2", 190, and we're told that the height might be a little generous. He's 19, and likely to put on a few or more good pounds in the next year or two. He's already a giant compared Oswalt, Pedro, Lincecum, Gio and many others. But comps are really futile for the guy, just ask Laumann, so I'll try to avoid them. He's obviously not a power arm like those guys. This may not be such a bad thing, especially long-term. But really, he's not so tiny, and should be less so at the time of arrival.

 

On a side note: he outweighs the Cubs CJ Edwards by 35 pounds, at roughly the same height - and CJ is already 22 years old, so his filling out is much more questionable. BA had no problem ranking CJ the 28th best prospect, one ahead of Abreu ( I know , what a joke), and obviously way higher than anyone else in our system, despite the clear durability concerns. As for next year's rankings, the Dane has a chance to do similar things as CJ at a similar level, or beyond, and will be doing so two years younger.

 

He doesn't have the tools needed to be a TOR. Ah, those tools. The radar gun readings and numerical rankings of each offering in the repertoire. Again, he's 19. Just started throwing a changeup a year or so ago. Repertoires change. Bodies too, when you're 19. Kid is super-smart and super-coachable. His ego is appropriate for a guy who so rarely sees the opposition touching home plate. And as with defensive metrics being greatly enhanced by new technology, pitch f/x and enhanced tracking will cause the pitching tools to evolve. Concepts like Command, Control and Command of Movement are becoming more quantifiable skills by the day. When the metrics eventually catch up, here's predicting that several of Tyler's rate as elite.

 

He doesn't have a ceiling greater than a #4 starter. Really? Do you think Laumann and Co. would have considered taking him in Rd 1.17, or even where they did in Rd2 if they believed that? They knew he wasn't a fireballer and they knew his mechanics were various degrees of scary, depending on who you asked. Sounds great, right? They also know he's truly unique, driven, competitive and special. Wouldn't be the first HS pitcher not to allow an earned run in a season, as he did last year, but he did it in one of the very best districts in the country. He only fell to us due to various fears and biases. I hope we can count on these once again in the upcoming draft.

 

Regarding biases, obviously I feel my guy's getting a bit of the high hat in the prospect world due to not lighting up the radar gun, thus my earlier references to Uehara (just a very partial comp, but similar in not needing velo to miss bats). This bias exists. I'll say it again - the BoSox trotted Hanrahan, Bailey and everyone else they could think of into their closer role before giving Koji a shot. All they had to f***ing do was look at the back of his god damned baseball card to realize how good he was! Or they could have just used their eyes. Another effect working against the Dane, imo, is an inappropriate statistical averaging. Consciously or otherwise, we humans sometimes look at an outcome that averages likelihoods of various distinct outcomes as the most plausible, when it may not really be plausible at all. For instance, in my mind Tyler has three career outcomes that are far more likely than other scenarios, to the extent that I will neglect the other possibilities. He will either:

 

-Suffer through injuries, durability issues and never have much of an MLB impact

-Make it in the Bigs as a reliever, forced into the pen due to injuries, durability. Has a marginal to very good career in the pen.

-Makes it as a starter, in which case he's way, way better than a #4

 

What I believe happens, is that folks do a form of averaging what they think are the probable scenarios, based on the perceived probabilities of each. Jumbling the three scenarios above could yield a 4th starter ceiling type of ranking, even though I don't even consider that as a possibility. There really should be floor and ceiling rankings for every player, with something like a likelihood factor for weighting, but I digress.

 

A few of these things are working against Tyler, currently, and the rankings will lag behind his performance, accordingly. But getting dudes out is the loudest f**ing tool, and if this guy stays healthy, his stock will soar, and it will be a lot of fun for all.

 

 

Or he could get badly injured in his bullpen before his next start, or get run over by a train, or lit up in Hagerstown.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen