Bernstein Column

[IlliniKrush]

I guess I shouldn't be shocked at the replies coming from a Sox message board, or people that can't look at numbers/something objectively instead of their hate for Bernstein.

 

The article was pretty simple. Talked about how Abreu is good, Rizzo is good, and hell, even Dunn has been good this year. But that only Abreu is getting any attention.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

WHen he brought it up yesterday, immediately he started mentioning how Sox fans were upset and they were dumb to be upset about it, because advanced metrics say so.

 

And then finished his argument by saying pretty much the same thing as his last paragraph in his column, its probably too early to make these presumptions

 

I vote with my own metric. Never turning on 670 AM without there being a White Sox game on.

[Marty34]

The Score should drop the pretense and talk Bears 24/7.

[ILMOU]

He actually mentioned White Sox and salary cap in an article last year when he was saying they would be doing things the new way in baseball. Having teams give up bad contracts, and giving the Sox prospects to take on the contracts.

I remember that - it was a reminder that I would never learn anything about sports from the guy.

 

The Score should drop the pretense and talk Bears 24/7.

indeed. It always seems like they're laboring through anything else.

 

I guess I shouldn't be shocked at the replies coming from a Sox message board, or people that can't look at numbers/something objectively instead of their hate for Bernstein.

 

The article was pretty simple. Talked about how Abreu is good, Rizzo is good, and hell, even Dunn has been good this year. But that only Abreu is getting any attention.

 

He's the new guy, and home runs are sexier than walks. Not so complicated.

 

Regarding hate for Bernstein, that's what he wants - complete disregard for his existence is preferable. The article DA is referring to should have been written in crayon. Incredibly uninformed for somebody who's considered a sports journalist. (there's another oxymoron)

Edited May 7, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[Eminor3rd]

Interesting article. It's a shame that Bernstein gets off on being such a douche.

 

Exactly. His points are spot on, but they're delivered in a package of "screw you for being happy about something, idiots."

 

Having moved from Chicago fairly recently (February), I've been away from the local hype train. All of what he's saying has been pretty obvious through the lense of the indifferent NY media. Is everyone really freaking out in Chicago over Abreu enough to warrant this kind of article?

[Eminor3rd]

He actually mentioned White Sox and salary cap in an article last year when he was saying they would be doing things the new way in baseball. Having teams give up bad contracts, and giving the Sox prospects to take on the contracts.

 

Yeah that was classic.

[chw42]

This article is one of the primary problems I have with "advanced" stats. Both of these players are being paid to produce runs. You can determine the probable value of this all you want but Abreu has scored 22 and driven in 35 for 57 runs minus the HR as you don't want to count the run twice for a total of 45. Rizzo has 19 scored and 16 driven in for 35 minus the 6 HR for a total of 29.

There is always the comment of RBI being useless because it depends on the teammates getting on base for the opportunity. In that case the percentage of runs driven in by opportunity works.

Don't flame me because I know many of you like the +RC stat and all but when it comes down to it, I think it is all about producing runs from these guys and I really don't care what his weighted on base percentage is. It's great to debate and discuss but it's not as relevant.

 

Runs scored also has to do with how the the hitters behind you hit.

 

It's pretty clear that things like RBI and Runs scored rely on factors one individual player just can't control.

[Melissa1334]

i know rizzo is 24 and abreu is 27, but hes still a rookie seeing these pitchers for the first time. look at rizzos numbers his first 3 years. im pretty sure he knows abreu has more talent and has been better but its just as mentioned, to stir the pot and hes getting exactly what he wants.

[chw42]

The problem I am having with Dan Bernstein is that I picture him watching a game, seeing the result and then looking at the advanced stats to see if he should be happy with the result.

 

I like sports I really do but at the end of the day the s*** that seems to now go back and forth now a days takes away from the enjoyment.

 

I want to like Avasail Garcia but I can't because he hits too many ground balls and not enough fly balls.

 

Sports are entertainment, tanking with the hope that in five years everything will be roses and p****cats mystifies me. That would be like taking a television away from someone that really likes television by telling them in four years, they may get the mother of all televisions.

 

I get that it is a business and teams do things with the bigger picture in mind but I want my three hours of daily entertainment. That is all I seek from sports. At the end of the day my life is no better the following morning after a teams win or lose. This goes for the fall of 2005 as well.

 

For some reason advanced statistics are doing the same thing for me. I can't enjoy Tyler Flowers, why...his BABIP tells me he will suck from now until mid-July. The stats tell me so.

 

Rizzo and Abreu are having good starts. Rizzo has been a round for a few yeas Abreu for a month. THAT IS THE f***ING STORY NOT RUNS CREATED V WOBA or whatever the f*** he is talking about..

 

Nobody is telling you how to enjoy the game of baseball. We're just saying what he's doing wasn't sustainable. There's a huge difference.

[chw42]

i know rizzo is 24 and abreu is 27, but hes still a rookie seeing these pitchers for the first time. look at rizzos numbers his first 3 years. im pretty sure he knows abreu has more talent and has been better but its just as mentioned, to stir the pot and hes getting exactly what he wants.

 

I personally think Abreu is far better, and going to be far better than Rizzo.

 

Rizzo's heated up like this before, only to come crashing down. Now, he is only 24 and he does have talent, but using a small sample size to try and make a point like Bernstein did isn't what I'd call good statistical analysis.

[Eminor3rd]

Nobody is telling you how to enjoy the game of baseball. We're just saying what he's doing wasn't sustainable. There's a huge difference.

 

This

[PorkChopExpress]

Rizzo and Abreu are having good starts. Rizzo has been a round for a few yeas Abreu for a month. THAT IS THE f***ING STORY NOT RUNS CREATED V WOBA or whatever the f*** he is talking about..

 

^ This. Whether he is older or not, Abreu is a rookie in his first month in MLB doing this stuff. He has already set ALL-TIME records for rookies. Rizzo, while having a great start, is not setting records, nor did he set records in his rookie year, and he has been playing in MLB since 2011. Add to that the fact that giving Abreu the contract he got was considered a risk because you didn't know exactly what you would be getting since he hadn't ever played in MLB before, and you have another interesting facet to the story with the risk/reward stuff. On top of that, this guy was signed to replace a living legend in the Sox community giving him big shoes to fill, and the fact that he looks like he might be able to fill them very nicely adds yet another interesting facet to the story.

 

This is simply a role reversal for the two teams. For so long it has been the Cubs getting all the press (except maybe in 2005), while at times the Sox were more deserving of the recognition, and many Sox fans complained about it, and now a Sox player is getting the press over a Cubs player also deserving of some recognition, and people are complaining about it.

[SoxFan562004]

Sample size is too small for this to be anything but a coincidence in timing that Bernstein gets a topic/article out of. Look at their last 7 day splits, Rizzo has been on fire and Abreu has been struggling outside of 2 HRs. I don't think he could have even thought to write a similar article if it was last week.

[chw42]

Exactly. His points are spot on, but they're delivered in a package of "screw you for being happy about something, idiots."

 

Having moved from Chicago fairly recently (February), I've been away from the local hype train. All of what he's saying has been pretty obvious through the lense of the indifferent NY media. Is everyone really freaking out in Chicago over Abreu enough to warrant this kind of article?

 

I tend to agree with Bernstein on a lot of stuff, but he is just a douche in a can.

[Dick Allen]

1 week ago, Rizzo had 3 homers 10 rbi and a .797 OPS. Abreu had 10 homers 32 rbi and a .960 OPS. That could be the reason there hasn't been this much deserved Rizzo-mania for which Bernstein is apparently campaigning all season long.

[chw42]

1 week ago, Rizzo had 3 homers 10 rbi and a .797 OPS. Abreu had 10 homers 32 rbi and a .960 OPS. That could be the reason there hasn't been this much deserved Rizzo-mania for which Bernstein is apparently campaigning all season long.

 

It's also hard to get excited about the Cubs in general.

[Dick Allen]

Bernstein gets what he wants. People read his "column". He gets to tell everyone they have to look at things more intelligently(like he does). And people talk about him.

 

He's not as bad, but his style is very Marriotti-esque.

[ptatc]

Runs scored also has to do with how the the hitters behind you hit.

 

It's pretty clear that things like RBI and Runs scored rely on factors one individual player just can't control.

Correct. However, that is the game of baseball. You cannot control everything to win the game. So why make up a stat that doesn't use it. It came about so agents can get more money for their client because "he did what he could control" nothing else really matters.

[Kyyle23]

I guess I shouldn't be shocked at the replies coming from a Sox message board, or people that can't look at numbers/something objectively instead of their hate for Bernstein.

 

The article was pretty simple. Talked about how Abreu is good, Rizzo is good, and hell, even Dunn has been good this year. But that only Abreu is getting any attention.

 

I listen to B&B pretty much everyday because I want my sports fix, and they do have good content, but even you have to admit that Bernsteins arrogance and dismissive nature towards anyone with a contradictory opinion has really skyrocketed in the last 5 or so years. You either call in and agree with him, or he screams at you and hangs up, then makes fun of you for the rest of the show for daring to have a different opinion. Even his coworkers have been calling him out on it.

 

The score puts through a lot of dumb callers for sure, but there are people with good things to say and he simply does not let them.

 

What Bernstein needs is to be rid of Boers, because he needs a strong voice on the other side that will keep him in check.

[southsider2k5]

Bernstein gets what he wants. People read his "column". He gets to tell everyone they have to look at things more intelligently(like he does). And people talk about him.

 

He's not as bad, but his style is very Marriotti-esque.

 

Jay is the undisputed King of the insult people off to attract followers format in the Chicago market, at least for sports. I'd put Mike Royko and John Kass above him for all markets, but Mariotti was the king of sports.

[southsider2k5]

I listen to B&B pretty much everyday because I want my sports fix, and they do have good content, but even you have to admit that Bernsteins arrogance and dismissive nature towards anyone with a contradictory opinion has really skyrocketed in the last 5 or so years. You either call in and agree with him, or he screams at you and hangs up, then makes fun of you for the rest of the show for daring to have a different opinion. Even his coworkers have been calling him out on it.

 

What Bernstein needs is to be rid of Boers, because he needs a strong voice on the other side that will keep him in check.

 

He is a lot like Hawk Harrelson in this regard.

[Kyyle23]

He is a lot like Hawk Harrelson in this regard.

 

which is ironic, considering his absolute dislike for Hawk

[Eminor3rd]

Correct. However, that is the game of baseball. You cannot control everything to win the game. So why make up a stat that doesn't use it. It came about so agents can get more money for their client because "he did what he could control" nothing else really matters.

 

Linear weights-based stats exist for the purpose of trying to compare players with a common denominator. For example, Brandon Phillips had 103 RBI in 2013. Mike Trout had 97. Does that make them the same class of hitter? If not, then how can we tell who is better and, by extension, likely to produce more in the future?

 

Well, Brandon Phillips had a wRC+ of 91 that year, and Trout had an insano-pants 176. So there you go.

 

Anyway, that's the purpose. Obviously things like RBI are critical when the game is being played, it's how you win, after all. I'd never want a coach to tell a player not to worry about driving in runs, for example. They just aren't good for evaluating ability. Or, better put, there are many other numbers that serve as much, much better proxies for evaluating ability than RBI and other context-based metrics.

[StrangeSox]

Correct. However, that is the game of baseball. You cannot control everything to win the game. So why make up a stat that doesn't use it. It came about so agents can get more money for their client because "he did what he could control" nothing else really matters.

 

Because evaluating a team as a whole and a player as an individual are two very different things?

 

Just like in any other field of research, you want to limit your variables as much as possible. It came about so smart GMs could better evaluate talent.

[ptatc]

Because evaluating a team as a whole and a player as an individual are two very different things?

 

Just like in any other field of research, you want to limit your variables as much as possible. It came about so smart GMs could better evaluate talent.

It is two very different things. You do want to limit variables. However, certain variables are more important than other and should be factored in. Variables like the aforementioned weighted on base. I'm not too concerned with Abreu or Rizzo being on base. I'm more concerned about them producing runs. Am I looking for them to walk or hit with a man on second? If no one is on base, do they swing for the HR or try to take the walk. This is where some of the stats are more important than others.

It did not come about so GMs could make better decisions. The first group to use them were fans, back in the 80's when James was using a one page news letter. Then the agents like Boras picked it up to drive the price of the players up because he showed how important an isolated player was without the context of other players.