FGs Quarterly Report: Jose Abreu

[witesoxfan]

Really nice read.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/quarterly-r...reu-who-mashes/

 

This is my favorite point in the entire article because it really sums up who Abreu is and his value to the Sox very well.

 

Abreu is likely a better all-around offensive player right now than Williams, Kingman or Armas ever was, with the exception of Williams’ age 29 peak season. He’d better be, however, as Armas and Williams provided substantially more defensive value. The early returns on Abreu’s difference, both statistically (8.4 UZR/150, -3 DRS) and via the eye test, are better than expected. He appears to be an average defensive first baseman. A 27-year-old average defensive first baseman, however, has nowhere to go but down. Abreu’s value is, and will always be in his bat. The value in his bat is now and will always be dependent upon continued top-of-the-charts batted-ball authority. As we’ve seen with Chris Davis this season, when such a player isn’t absolutely tearing the cover off of the ball, he can appear ordinary pretty quickly. 27-year-old Albert Pujols and 27-year-old Prince Fielder were pretty special, but their current versions don’t hammer the ball as hard or as often as they did then – and they had K prevention and BB maximization to fall back upon, unlike Abreu.

 

People get lost in the tape measure shots. I love Abreu, but it is vitally important that he keep hitting and/or improve his plate discipline. I do believe that improved discipline will come with exposure.

[caulfield12]

Really nice read.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/quarterly-r...reu-who-mashes/

 

This is my favorite point in the entire article because it really sums up who Abreu is and his value to the Sox very well.

 

 

 

People get lost in the tape measure shots. I love Abreu, but it is vitally important that he keep hitting and/or improve his plate discipline. I do believe that improved discipline will come with exposure.

 

 

But it's not out of the realm of possibility that he improves at 1B, given the proper instruction...not unlike Konerko has over the years in terms of digging balls out of the dirt. Part of that is God-given ability, like Juan Uribe's "soft" hands. But it's certainly an area that can and will get better over time. To say that he's peaked defensively in his rookie year in the big leagues is a stretching it, an extrapolation done with tons of future uncertainty.

Edited May 20, 2014 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

But it's not out of the realm of possibility that he improves at 1B, given the proper instruction...not unlike Konerko has over the years in terms of digging balls out of the dirt. Part of that is God-given ability, like Juan Uribe's "soft" hands. But it's certainly an area that can and will get better over time. To say that he's peaked defensively in his rookie year in the big leagues is a stretching it, an extrapolation done with tons of future uncertainty.

 

He still plays 1B and is not particularly athletic in regards to speed and quickness on his feet. He's obviously athletic in that he's strong and can hit a ball 500 feet, but his other skills will not translate to helping out otherwise. This isn't Puig in RF or Cespedes in CF or Matt Williams at 3B. You can only add so much value at 1B defensively, and you 100% have to hit to be valuable at 1B. I believe he can and will and don't really fear it at all, but it's still a very valid point.

[witesoxfan]

Even if Abreu has a serious regression over the years, he really doesn't have to do that much to make his contract a value. 11 million in 2018 is going to be a tick above the average player salary considering the current rate of growth with contracts. His stats look the way they do when he has had two pretty significant streaks where he couldn't touch the ball. Plus, he has barely played in the warm weather. His brute strength is going to be sending balls way out in June-September when he is play half of his games at the Cell. I feel like a penny stock pumper saying all this but Abreu can get jammed and put one into the bullpen in left.

 

I definitely am not worried about contract value, I have 100% faith he is going to fulfill that. The general concerns are basically whether he is a Cabrera/Davis caliber hitter or the Kingman/Batista type of hitter.

[Jake]

We're still working with too small of sample sizes. Abreu essentially jumped AA and AAA right into the majors. That K rate and BB rate are going to do some fluctuation. For a while, it looked like it was going to be 8-9 BB% and 19 K%. He's going to probably look both worse and better before things start to normalize and it will be a perfectly valid expectation that those peripherals improve next season whereas they typically stay pretty static.

[Eminor3rd]

Excellent article. I believe that he will improve his K/BB ratio as he matures and he will drop his liner percentage just from chance. I think his SLG will drop but his AVG/OBP will rise and we'll end up with a .265/.340/.540 guy that we love.

 

Defensively, best case is that he gains skill as he loses quickness and remains average-ish for a while.

[ptatc]

I'm sorry but this is another time when analysis is leading to paralysis. When looking at a first baseman especially this one, it hasn't once occurred to me "gee he would be more valuable if his defense was a little better." Of course his value is tied to his hitting.

 

If he keeps hitting like he has he will be worth mentioning in the HOF category like Pujols. If he doesn't he will most likely still be a valuable piece to a team's offense.

Edited May 20, 2014 by ptatc

[witesoxfan]

Excellent article. I believe that he will improve his K/BB ratio as he matures and he will drop his liner percentage just from chance. I think his SLG will drop but his AVG/OBP will rise and we'll end up with a .265/.340/.540 guy that we love.

 

Defensively, best case is that he gains skill as he loses quickness and remains average-ish for a while.

 

I think he'll hit for a better average than that, but that's not far off.

 

I'm sorry but this is another time when analysis is leading to paralysis. When looking at a first baseman especially this one, it hasn't once occurred to me "gee he would be more valuable if his defense was a little better." Of course his value is tied to his hitting.

 

If he keeps hitting like he has he will be worth mentioning in the HOF category like Pujols. If he doesn't he will most likely still be a valuable piece to a team's offense.

 

I don't think it's so much that his value will increase if his defense improves but rather that his value is more limited because he plays 1B. It's not to say he's a bad player or he will be hurt if his defense isn't good. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both terrible fielding 1B and nobody cares about that at all.

[Rowand44]

I don't think it's so much that his value will increase if his defense improves but rather that his value is more limited because he plays 1B. It's not to say he's a bad player or he will be hurt if his defense isn't good. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are both terrible fielding 1B and nobody cares about that at all.

I see what you're saying but this value DOES increase if he's a better defensive 1b. Yes, his main job here is to hit the baseball out of the park but if he's a better 1b, he's a better baseball player. So if he's a better baseball player, he's more valuable. I don't see the problem in saying that.

[witesoxfan]

I see what you're saying but this value DOES increase if he's a better defensive 1b. Yes, his main job here is to hit the baseball out of the park but if he's a better 1b, he's a better baseball player. So if he's a better baseball player, he's more valuable. I don't see the problem in saying that.

 

I don't either.

 

It seems like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth right now because I'm saying defense both is and is not important. Just in general, it's obviously better if his defense is great but if it's not, it won't matter because he will be judged by his hitting performance. Frank was another that was absolutely terrible defensively and nobody ever bothers bringing it up.

[ptatc]

I see what you're saying but this value DOES increase if he's a better defensive 1b. Yes, his main job here is to hit the baseball out of the park but if he's a better 1b, he's a better baseball player. So if he's a better baseball player, he's more valuable. I don't see the problem in saying that.

No there's no problem with it. However, I think it's such a small point and it really wouldn't play a factor, for a trade or signing. I don't think he would command more money or more players in a trade if he were a better defensive first baseman. The points in the article should focus on his hitting with a bare mention of the defense.

[Balta1701]

His K-Rate is also being pushed up by the time he was playing hurt.

[Eminor3rd]

I'm sorry but this is another time when analysis is leading to paralysis. When looking at a first baseman especially this one, it hasn't once occurred to me "gee he would be more valuable if his defense was a little better." Of course his value is tied to his hitting.

 

If he keeps hitting like he has he will be worth mentioning in the HOF category like Pujols. If he doesn't he will most likely still be a valuable piece to a team's offense.

 

Obviously if "he keeps hitting like he has" he'll be great, but the whole point of this was to analyze whether or not it looks like he actually can. Elite hitters with his K and BB rates are rare, the analysis is totally justified.

[TaylorStSox]

His K-Rate is also being pushed up by the time he was playing hurt.

Link? I just want to know if this part of your agenda is backed by facts?

[Jake]

Yeah, I think the obvious question is not so much whether he can sustain statistics exactly like these over the long haul, but rather which ones will change. The saber way tends to assume that K/BB stays the same, in which case the outlook is bleak for Abreu. However, we have good reason to be skeptical of the stability of the K/BB rates of a player with such unique circumstances, in such little time, and partially influenced by injury.

[ptatc]

Obviously if "he keeps hitting like he has" he'll be great, but the whole point of this was to analyze whether or not it looks like he actually can. Elite hitters with his K and BB rates are rare, the analysis is totally justified.

I was commenting on the defensive skill increasing his value not some much the K and BB rates. I consider that part of his "value as a hitter"

[Balta1701]

Link? I just want to know if this part of your agenda is backed by facts?

His K/PA for the week before he went on the DL was at 44%. His K/BB for that week is infinite (12 k's, 1 HBP, 0 BB).

 

Similarly, when he had that 1/29 stretch earlier this season (which some have said may have also been related to his foot) his K rate was 37.9%.

 

Overall on the season his K-rate is 27.5%. However, if you exclude those 2 possibly injury-driven sections of the season and pretend our team wasn't a triage ward, his K-Rate in his remaining at bats is only 20.3%.

[Dunt]

I have nothing to base my claim on, but I think Abreu will ultimately get his K rate under 20% and his walk rate up to around 11-12%.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Don't forget that Abreu has an opt-out for arbitration clause in his contract after 3 seasons. It's very likely if he continues to mash that he will become an expensive players for those final 3 seasons with us. That's always something to remember when we root for him to win 3 straight MVPs.

[bmags]

I have nothing to base my claim on,

Nobody really does at this point.

 

 

[TaylorStSox]

Don't forget that Abreu has an opt-out for arbitration clause in his contract after 3 seasons. It's very likely if he continues to mash that he will become an expensive players for those final 3 seasons with us. That's always something to remember when we root for him to win 3 straight MVPs.

That's fine. If he has 3 great years and falls off, we decline.

[southsider2k5]

Don't forget that Abreu has an opt-out for arbitration clause in his contract after 3 seasons. It's very likely if he continues to mash that he will become an expensive players for those final 3 seasons with us. That's always something to remember when we root for him to win 3 straight MVPs.

 

Unless contracts really go insane, he may not want to opt out of his 4th year, to go through arbit. 5th and 6th will be where it gets interesting. For example, Trouts 4th year is in the books at $15.25 million, which is by far the highest ever. Abreu's 4th year is $10.5 million. Ryan Howard's 4th year was at $15 million. The 5th years all jump to around $20 million vs Jose's $11.5m, which is when you may get the opt out.

 

If he is in that stratosphere by then, the possibility also exists that he goes to the team and gets a mega-extension done instead which rips up those last three years.

[Texsox]

Looking ahead, which seems really, really silly, his career could follow Frank's, plenty of time as a DH. There are a couple on the roster that will be coming off in the next year or two. The length of his career will be something to watch. Switching early to DH might mean a season or two more at peak offensive production, and the decline may be a season or two longer. But total, is anyone predicting more than 10 years? Maybe 12 -14. That doesn't seem long.

[Jake]

I'd hate for an Abreu move to DH to push Viciedo off the team if we decide we can't tolerate his outfield D