Your Current Top 10

[harfman77]

I cannot fathom how Adams the high schooler who fell to the second round can be higher than Matt Davidson, the preseason top 100 prospect in AAA having his first bad season.

 

I would say at this point Adams ceiling is a lot higher than Davidsons. Adams has a TOR ceiling while Davidson is resembling many of the scouting reports that we read when he was acquired, a ton of power though maybe not enough contact to make it play at the ML level, so his ceiling has fallen a bit to where he just may be a Mark Reynolds clone.

[Eminor3rd]

I would say at this point Adams ceiling is a lot higher than Davidsons. Adams has a TOR ceiling while Davidson is resembling many of the scouting reports that we read when he was acquired, a ton of power though maybe not enough contact to make it play at the ML level, so his ceiling has fallen a bit to where he just may be a Mark Reynolds clone.

 

He had 500 PA of 26% K rate in AAA just late year, and showed a 27% in limited action in the ML. Two months or 33% in AAA this year is discouraging, but how could it have lowered his ceiling? He's had larger samples of better performance at this very level less than a calendar year ago. If this was his first taste above AA, you could make sort of an argument that his skills might not translate, and then you'd re-evaluate his ceiling. But what do we have to suggest that he can't be what he was in 2013?

[royoung]

I would say at this point Adams ceiling is a lot higher than Davidsons. Adams has a TOR ceiling while Davidson is resembling many of the scouting reports that we read when he was acquired, a ton of power though maybe not enough contact to make it play at the ML level, so his ceiling has fallen a bit to where he just may be a Mark Reynolds clone.

 

You also have to factor the likelihood of said prospect reaching that ceiling, or at least their floor. Davidson has an very good chance of being at least a league average 3B, Adams has an extremely small chance of being a #1 or #2 starter. Hell, he probably has a slim chance of even being a starter at the major league level period.

 

Sure Adams may have a higher ceiling than Davidson, but you could say the same for any freak athlete kid who dabbles in baseball. Just because it's possible, doesn't mean its remotely probable. And I say all this with the caveat that I absolutely loved the Adams pick. Probably my favorite in the whole draft.

Edited June 10, 2014 by southside hitman

[harfman77]

He had 500 PA of 26% K rate in AAA just late year, and showed a 27% in limited action in the ML. Two months or 33% in AAA this year is discouraging, but how could it have lowered his ceiling? He's had larger samples of better performance at this very level less than a calendar year ago. If this was his first taste above AA, you could make sort of an argument that his skills might not translate, and then you'd re-evaluate his ceiling. But what do we have to suggest that he can't be what he was in 2013?

 

Nothing, but the 2013 version of Matt Davidson is not an all star level player. What we have is evidence that he might not reach the ceiling that was predicted for him in 2013 which tarnishes his prospect status. There is nothing to suggest that if you extrapolated the numbers he put up in the majors last year over a season that he could not replicate those numbers, but those are not the numbers of a starting major leaguer.

 

I dont know that Adams should be rated ahead of Davidson, but I can see the argument for it. Realistically Davidson is still probably a top 5 or 6 player in the org but his chances of reaching his upside are lower than they were when he was acquired.

[harfman77]

You also have to factor the likelihood of said prospect reaching that ceiling, or at least their floor. Davidson has an very good chance of being at least a league average 3B, Adams has an extremely small chance of being a #1 or #2 starter. Hell, he probably has a slim chance of even being a starter at the major league level period.

 

Sure Adams may have a higher ceiling than Davidson, but you could say the same for any freak athlete kid who dabbles in baseball. Just because it's possible, doesn't mean its remotely probable. And I say all this with the caveat that I absolutely loved the Adams pick. Probably my favorite in the whole draft.

 

I totally get that. You need to evaluate the players max potential, their current ability, and the likelihood that they meet that ceiling. Adams has a extremely high ceiling and there is no way to measure the floor or probability until he actual pitches as a pro. Davidson's ceiling might not even be everyday MLB player, I don't know how you can look at Davidson and say he has a chance to be much more than he is, there is very little projection left in him. Perhaps he is having eye issues like Olt was and needs to get that taken care of, but his 32% K rate (small sample) in the majors last season and his 33% K rate this season make it less likely he will ever be a league average 3B. Its quite possible that pitchers have learned how to pitch to him and he will have a hard time ever being more than he is now without some mechanical changes.

[SoxnGiants]

That K rate for Davidson is alarming. I was expecting it to drop in the 20% range, not regress. I have doubts that he will make it.

 

Danish, imo, is ahead of the curve for a teenage pitcher. If he's ever able to add a couple MPH and gain endurance I see an above average MLB starter. A good #3. I don't think gaining velocity or endurance are unreasonable assumptions for a 19 year old.

[bmags]

How has Davidson done defensively? That was main reason he was sent down if I remember correctly.

[southsider2k5]

How has Davidson done defensively? That was main reason he was sent down if I remember correctly.

 

I think that was about the first reason he was sent down.

 

#1 was service time.

#2 was that Gillaspie, Semien, and Beckham all had very good springs.

[southsider2k5]

I think that was about the first reason he was sent down.

 

#1 was service time.

#2 was that Gillaspie, Semien, and Beckham all had very good springs.

 

I meant 3rd, not 1st.

[royoung]

I totally get that. You need to evaluate the players max potential, their current ability, and the likelihood that they meet that ceiling. Adams has a extremely high ceiling and there is no way to measure the floor or probability until he actual pitches as a pro. Davidson's ceiling might not even be everyday MLB player, I don't know how you can look at Davidson and say he has a chance to be much more than he is, there is very little projection left in him. Perhaps he is having eye issues like Olt was and needs to get that taken care of, but his 32% K rate (small sample) in the majors last season and his 33% K rate this season make it less likely he will ever be a league average 3B. Its quite possible that pitchers have learned how to pitch to him and he will have a hard time ever being more than he is now without some mechanical changes.

 

Does Davidson have a chance to be a young Alex Rodriguez? No. But he just turned 23 and has consistently hit for power over his minor league career. His power numbers are on line or above his career averages and his BABIP is 60 points below his career average. I think you could plug him into the lineup next year and take the 20-25 homers and live with the .240 batting average. And who knows, some players make huge strides after a couple of major league seasons, Chris Davis and Josh Donaldson for example. Davidson has the power and there has been no questions about his overall hit tool, I think he'll provide value for the Sox soon.

[ILMOU]

Does Davidson have a chance to be a young Alex Rodriguez? No. But he just turned 23 and has consistently hit for power over his minor league career. His power numbers are on line or above his career averages and his BABIP is 60 points below his career average. I think you could plug him into the lineup next year and take the 20-25 homers and live with the .240 batting average. And who knows, some players make huge strides after a couple of major league seasons, Chris Davis and Josh Donaldson for example. Davidson has the power and there has been no questions about his overall hit tool, I think he'll provide value for the Sox soon.

I'm less bullish primarily because his numbers at Reno, an absolute hitter's paradise with altitude AND dry desert heat, are rather pedestrian in the PCL scheme of things. I like his AA performance and his time in MLB was too short for a "book" to have developed on him.

 

Cautiously optimistic still, but with emphasis on the caution.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'm less bullish primarily because his numbers at Reno, an absolute hitter's paradise with altitude AND dry desert heat, are rather pedestrian in the PCL scheme of things. I like his AA performance and his time in MLB was too short for a "book" to have developed on him.

 

Cautiously optimistic still, but with emphasis on the caution.

I don't think the PCL vs IL issue can come close to covering the downfall he's had in Charlotte. His K rate should ne relatively unaffected (unless his K issue is almost entirely due to swing-and-miss on big moving breaking stuff), and his numbers in general are significantly worse acros the board. Given his HR and K totals, I am concerned he's just plain swinging for the fences too often.

 

[ILMOU]

I don't think the PCL vs IL issue can come close to covering the downfall he's had in Charlotte. His K rate should ne relatively unaffected (unless his K issue is almost entirely due to swing-and-miss on big moving breaking stuff), and his numbers in general are significantly worse acros the board. Given his HR and K totals, I am concerned he's just plain swinging for the fences too often.

Agreed. Just pointing out that the premise of an 831 OPS being considered "good" where he posted it is highly debatable, even at 22 y.o. I had trepidation at the time of the trade.

Edited June 10, 2014 by Stan Bahnsen

[harfman77]

Does Davidson have a chance to be a young Alex Rodriguez? No. But he just turned 23 and has consistently hit for power over his minor league career. His power numbers are on line or above his career averages and his BABIP is 60 points below his career average. I think you could plug him into the lineup next year and take the 20-25 homers and live with the .240 batting average. And who knows, some players make huge strides after a couple of major league seasons, Chris Davis and Josh Donaldson for example. Davidson has the power and there has been no questions about his overall hit tool, I think he'll provide value for the Sox soon.

 

I am right there with you, thats what makes him resemble a young Mark Reynolds. He could bust out like Donaldson and Davis, but the probability on that is not great. The odds are he improves to the point where he is a guy that can hit .245 with 20 HR's a year. He still has a shot to be great, but it is less likely today than it ever before in his career.

[royoung]

I am right there with you, thats what makes him resemble a young Mark Reynolds. He could bust out like Donaldson and Davis, but the probability on that is not great. The odds are he improves to the point where he is a guy that can hit .245 with 20 HR's a year. He still has a shot to be great, but it is less likely today than it ever before in his career.

 

Yeah I don't know what peoples expectations are, but if he hits .240-250 and hits 20-30 homers, I consider that a success. That's probably right around league average and for the money, that's great value. I understand people dream bigger when it comes to your teams #1 prospect, but hey value is value and he wasn't acquired thinking he was a boom or bust guy.

[oldsox]

I'm less bullish primarily because his numbers at Reno, an absolute hitter's paradise with altitude AND dry desert heat, are rather pedestrian in the PCL scheme of things. I like his AA performance and his time in MLB was too short for a "book" to have developed on him.

 

Cautiously optimistic still, but with emphasis on the caution.

His 31 games at AZ were enough for them to have a book on him, per my crack research staff. Result: Sox gave up waaay too much.

[Boopa1219]

That's one of the worst lists I've seen. How Davidson, Sanchez, Montas, Ravelo, Trey isn't on that list is bad.

 

I honestly forgot that Davidson existed I'll put him at 6 and remove Johnson and I am not big on Sanchez. Montas would be 10, although I am not familiar with him at all.

[royoung]

I figured this was as good a place to put this considering it's concerning our prospect rankings.

 

Keith Law wrote an article titled "Five teams with new no. 1 prospects" and naturally we were one of them. His write up is below:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/...ts?refresh=true

 

"Chicago White Sox: Carlos Rodon, LHP

 

The White Sox's top two prospects coming into 2014, Erik Johnson and Matt Davidson, have disappointed thus far. (Johnson has also lost eligibility for the list by passing the 50-inning threshold.) That makes the top of their list muddled. There's Courtney Hawkins, who is having a strong second go with Winston-Salem of the high-Class A Carolina League; Tim Anderson, who is hitting for average (.309) and playing good defense at shortstop for Winston-Salem but has shown poor plate discipline; and Micah Johnson, now up in Triple-A after a brief but successful run with Double-A Birmingham.

 

Rodon passes all three as a near-MLB-ready starter with a grade-70 slider and above-average fastball. Issues with Rodon's delivery have led to command problems and slightly reduced velocity, but the White Sox have an excellent track record of working with pitchers with unusual or difficult arm actions. Getting Rodon better extension out front and a cleaner finish will help him throw more strikes and maybe add more to his fastball. If all goes well, he should be in their rotation by this time next year -- perhaps with Micah Johnson playing somewhere behind him."

 

A couple of interesting tidbits in here... very surprised he said Tim Anderson is playing "good defense" for Winston-Salem. Is he seeing/hearing something about his range, fluidity, play, that we aren't by just scouting his error total? Also, glad to hear he at least considers Courtney Hawkins for the no. 1 spot, he was a big fan of his pre-draft and was just as disappointed by his aggressive assignment as we were.

Edited June 12, 2014 by southside hitman

[NorthSideSox72]

Now with the draft complete, assuming Rodon signs plus the guys who already have (plus keeping in mind the last few weeks' performances), my new I-haven't-researched-enough-yet list is:

 

1. Rodon

2. Anderson

3. Hawkins

4. MJohnson

5. Adams

6. Davidson

7. Beck

8. Sanchez

9. Michalczewski

10. Montas

11. Danish

12. Ravelo

13. Thompson

14. Adolfo

15. KSmith

16. Rondon

17. Bassitt

18. Snodgress

19. AMitchell

20. May

21. Barnum

22. Recchia

23. ALopez

24. Fry

25. Jaye

 

Just missed...

Olacio

Engel

Hansen

Ortiz

Coats

Lowry

Austin

Jarvis

Guerrero

 

The list is much tigher now, lots of places on there where any of the guys could go up or down 3 or 5 slots and would feel about right too.

 

[maggsmaggs]

I figured this was as good a place to put this considering it's concerning our prospect rankings.

 

Keith Law wrote an article titled "Five teams with new no. 1 prospects" and naturally we were one of them. His write up is below:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/...ts?refresh=true

 

"Chicago White Sox: Carlos Rodon, LHP

 

The White Sox's top two prospects coming into 2014, Erik Johnson and Matt Davidson, have disappointed thus far. (Johnson has also lost eligibility for the list by passing the 50-inning threshold.) That makes the top of their list muddled. There's Courtney Hawkins, who is having a strong second go with Winston-Salem of the high-Class A Carolina League; Tim Anderson, who is hitting for average (.309) and playing good defense at shortstop for Winston-Salem but has shown poor plate discipline; and Micah Johnson, now up in Triple-A after a brief but successful run with Double-A Birmingham.

 

Rodon passes all three as a near-MLB-ready starter with a grade-70 slider and above-average fastball. Issues with Rodon's delivery have led to command problems and slightly reduced velocity, but the White Sox have an excellent track record of working with pitchers with unusual or difficult arm actions. Getting Rodon better extension out front and a cleaner finish will help him throw more strikes and maybe add more to his fastball. If all goes well, he should be in their rotation by this time next year -- perhaps with Micah Johnson playing somewhere behind him."

 

A couple of interesting tidbits in here... very surprised he said Tim Anderson is playing "good defense" for Winston-Salem. Is he seeing/hearing something about his range, fluidity, play, that we aren't by just scouting his error total? Also, glad to hear he at least considers Courtney Hawkins for the no. 1 spot, he was a big fan of his pre-draft and was just as disappointed by his aggressive assignment as we were.

Honesty, seems like Law just has bad information. 26 errors in 52 games is not good defense. And it is a stretch to say Hawkins is having a "strong" season.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Now with the draft complete, assuming Rodon signs plus the guys who already have (plus keeping in mind the last few weeks' performances), my new I-haven't-researched-enough-yet list is:

 

1. Rodon

2. Anderson

3. Hawkins

4. MJohnson

5. Adams

6. Davidson

7. Beck

8. Sanchez

9. Michalczewski

10. Montas

11. Danish

12. Ravelo

13. Thompson

14. Adolfo

15. KSmith

16. Rondon

17. Bassitt

18. Snodgress

19. AMitchell

20. May

21. Barnum

22. Recchia

23. ALopez

24. Fry

25. Jaye

 

Just missed...

Olacio

Engel

Hansen

Ortiz

Coats

Lowry

Austin

Jarvis

Guerrero

 

The list is much tigher now, lots of places on there where any of the guys could go up or down 3 or 5 slots and would feel about right too.

 

Your lists are always the best and this is no exception -- but I'm still so shocked at how highly Adams is ranked at this point. I'd be curious to hear you elaborate on how he's higher than Davidson/Sanchez despite not having thrown a professional inning.

 

[royoung]

Your lists are always the best and this is no exception -- but I'm still so shocked at how highly Adams is ranked at this point. I'd be curious to hear you elaborate on how he's higher than Davidson/Sanchez despite not having thrown a professional inning.

 

I have to agree, Rodon has been a dominate college pitcher in a power conference for three years, so it's an easy choice to slot him at #1. Adams has potential no doubt, but that's a bit high for my taste.

[NorthSideSox72]

Your lists are always the best and this is no exception -- but I'm still so shocked at how highly Adams is ranked at this point. I'd be curious to hear you elaborate on how he's higher than Davidson/Sanchez despite not having thrown a professional inning.

 

 

I have to agree, Rodon has been a dominate college pitcher in a power conference for three years, so it's an easy choice to slot him at #1. Adams has potential no doubt, but that's a bit high for my taste.

 

I didn't take a ton of time when I did this one, but I do remember debating Adams anywhere from 5 to 9. One way to think of it is, Tyler Danish was seen early-on as a Top 10 guy out of high school... and I think Adams has better stuff and a higher ceiling, based on the reports I have read so far. I think he's got a #2 type starter as a "ceiling", and that's higher any pitcher in the org right now other than Rodon, IMO.

 

That said, honestly, you could slide him to 8 or so and I wouldn't argue it. It's very tough ranking a guy like Adams against a guy like Sanchez, or even Davidson - just so different in so many ways, it is hard to pin down value. Maybe the easier way is to rank pitchers only, for example.

 

[GreenSox]

I would have thought that Wendelken would have been top 15-20ish.

[royoung]

I didn't take a ton of time when I did this one, but I do remember debating Adams anywhere from 5 to 9. One way to think of it is, Tyler Danish was seen early-on as a Top 10 guy out of high school... and I think Adams has better stuff and a higher ceiling, based on the reports I have read so far. I think he's got a #2 type starter as a "ceiling", and that's higher any pitcher in the org right now other than Rodon, IMO.

 

That said, honestly, you could slide him to 8 or so and I wouldn't argue it. It's very tough ranking a guy like Adams against a guy like Sanchez, or even Davidson - just so different in so many ways, it is hard to pin down value. Maybe the easier way is to rank pitchers only, for example.

 

I think a couple guys you could compare to Adams are Frank Montas and Tyler Danish. Danish was a 2013 2nd round pick out of high school, didn't come into the system as highly touted as Adams is, but you have to love his results thus far. He's struggled a bit in Winston-Salem, but he just turned 19 and it's the first time he's really been challenged.

 

Montas is a bit older, but he's dominating A+ at 21 and has front of the rotation potential. I am reserving serious judgement on him until he logs more innings, but if he continues pitches at the level he's shown so far, I think he's got an excellent argument to be the #2 pitching prospect in the system behind Rodon.