Your Current Top 10

[southsider2k5]

Your lists are always the best and this is no exception -- but I'm still so shocked at how highly Adams is ranked at this point. I'd be curious to hear you elaborate on how he's higher than Davidson/Sanchez despite not having thrown a professional inning.

 

Rodon hasn't thrown a professional inning yet either, and I don't see anyone having trouble ranking him #1.

[maggsmaggs]

Rodon hasn't thrown a professional inning yet either, and I don't see anyone having trouble ranking him #1.

But he has three years as an elite college pitcher, which should be given much more weight than a high school arm.

[Buehrle>Wood]

But he has three years as an elite college pitcher, which should be given much more weight than a high school arm.

And his eta might be the next major prospect of ours called up. Who knows what Adams eta is. Usually guys closer to the majors get a bump, and rightfully so. (Inb4 someone says "but Anderson/Hawkins aren't close!!!", yes I realize it us just one of the many factors considered but still often a major one)

[Eminor3rd]

Rodon hasn't thrown a professional inning yet either, and I don't see anyone having trouble ranking him #1.

 

The difference between division I collegiate athletics and random High School athletics is massive not only in the talent gap, but the relative standardization of talent and the visibility of both the prosepcts themselves and their performances.

 

MASSIVE difference between Rodon and any HS player in terms of what everyone knows about them.

[Eminor3rd]

I didn't take a ton of time when I did this one, but I do remember debating Adams anywhere from 5 to 9. One way to think of it is, Tyler Danish was seen early-on as a Top 10 guy out of high school... and I think Adams has better stuff and a higher ceiling, based on the reports I have read so far. I think he's got a #2 type starter as a "ceiling", and that's higher any pitcher in the org right now other than Rodon, IMO.

 

That said, honestly, you could slide him to 8 or so and I wouldn't argue it. It's very tough ranking a guy like Adams against a guy like Sanchez, or even Davidson - just so different in so many ways, it is hard to pin down value. Maybe the easier way is to rank pitchers only, for example.

 

Fair enough, makes sense to me. Thanks

[southsider2k5]

The difference between division I collegiate athletics and random High School athletics is massive not only in the talent gap, but the relative standardization of talent and the visibility of both the prosepcts themselves and their performances.

 

MASSIVE difference between Rodon and any HS player in terms of what everyone knows about them.

 

In this day and age, top HS kids are just as scouted as anyone else. I doubt anyone wouldn't put an 18 year old ARod or KGJr at the top of their list just because they were HS kids. Same with Aiken or Kolek this year. No reason not to rank them where they should go. We aren't talking about kids pitching in the wilderness where no one sees them.

[Chicago White Sox]

But he has three years as an elite college pitcher, which should be given much more weight than a high school arm.

Honest question, but had we selected Aiken with our first pick would he not be our #1 prospect?

 

Adams was a borderline 1st round talent, he should definitely be our top 10 and I'd have him around #8.

[maggsmaggs]

Honest question, but had we selected Aiken with our first pick would he not be our #1 prospect?

 

Adams was a borderline 1st round talent, he should definitely be our top 10 and I'd have him around #8.

Most definitely. But there is a difference between a borderline first-round talent (Adams) and the consensus top prospect in the Draft (Aiken).

[southsider2k5]

Most definitely. But there is a difference between a borderline first-round talent (Adams) and the consensus top prospect in the Draft (Aiken).

 

And no one is ranking him #1 either to reflect that difference.

[NorthSideSox72]

I would have thought that Wendelken would have been top 15-20ish.

I actually forgot about him - that's what I get for doing it off the top of my head, haha. He'd probably be in the 20-30 range for me.

 

[Eminor3rd]

In this day and age, top HS kids are just as scouted as anyone else. I doubt anyone wouldn't put an 18 year old ARod or KGJr at the top of their list just because they were HS kids. Same with Aiken or Kolek this year. No reason not to rank them where they should go. We aren't talking about kids pitching in the wilderness where no one sees them.

 

But the competition that they're up against is poor and inconsistent geographically, making the "results" close to meaningless (aside from "he was mowing kids down" vs. "he was getting lit up"). Further, a typical HS pitcher can't do most of the things he needs to do to succeed at the ML level; they're guessing that he can develop those things over the next 4-5 years and turn into a ML pitcher. Typical college arms have one or two things to work on and they'll be given a shot in a year or two.

 

EDIT: To clarify, I'm not against Adams or his ilk being ranked highly in general, just against the idea that he ranks ABOVE hitters we have in AAA who are struggling a bit for the first time. Everything I've read about Adams is that he has the ceiling of a very good starting pitcher, top of the rotation-ish but not a league "ace." Matt Davidson, specifically, has the ceiling of being a similarly ranked third baseman, and he's so so much closer to that than any HS kid that's got 4-5 years of development risks ahead.

Edited June 16, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[southsider2k5]

But the competition that they're up against is poor and inconsistent geographically, making the "results" close to meaningless (aside from "he was mowing kids down" vs. "he was getting lit up"). Further, a typical HS pitcher can't do most of the things he needs to do to succeed at the ML level; they're guessing that he can develop those things over the next 4-5 years and turn into a ML pitcher. Typical college arms have one or two things to work on and they'll be given a shot in a year or two.

 

EDIT: To clarify, I'm not against Adams or his ilk being ranked highly in general, just against the idea that he ranks ABOVE hitters we have in AAA who are struggling a bit for the first time. Everything I've read about Adams is that he has the ceiling of a very good starting pitcher, top of the rotation-ish but not a league "ace." Matt Davidson, specifically, has the ceiling of being a similarly ranked third baseman, and he's so so much closer to that than any HS kid that's got 4-5 years of development risks ahead.

 

He isn't be ranked because of his stats though. He is being ranked there because of his tools, and his projectability. Personally I would rank Davidson ahead of the guy (and did on my list pages back), but it isn't just because of his age.5

[Eminor3rd]

He isn't be ranked because of his stats though. He is being ranked there because of his tools, and his projectability. Personally I would rank Davidson ahead of the guy (and did on my list pages back), but it isn't just because of his age.5

 

Yeah, like I said, I'm not saying he shouldn't be ranked or even that he shouldn't be ranked highly -- I just can't believe that (to so many of us) he's leapfrogged a bunch of guys that are safer bets with similar ceilings, that's all.

[harfman77]

But the competition that they're up against is poor and inconsistent geographically, making the "results" close to meaningless (aside from "he was mowing kids down" vs. "he was getting lit up"). Further, a typical HS pitcher can't do most of the things he needs to do to succeed at the ML level; they're guessing that he can develop those things over the next 4-5 years and turn into a ML pitcher. Typical college arms have one or two things to work on and they'll be given a shot in a year or two.

 

EDIT: To clarify, I'm not against Adams or his ilk being ranked highly in general, just against the idea that he ranks ABOVE hitters we have in AAA who are struggling a bit for the first time. Everything I've read about Adams is that he has the ceiling of a very good starting pitcher, top of the rotation-ish but not a league "ace." Matt Davidson, specifically, has the ceiling of being a similarly ranked third baseman, and he's so so much closer to that than any HS kid that's got 4-5 years of development risks ahead.

 

Thats not especially true anymore. With the amount of showcases and travel teams where top players are matching up against each other, scouts get the opportunity to see these kids play against teams of other top players. PG is headquartered here and they have showcases throughout the year and a couple big ones where they get the top players from all over the US.

[Jerksticks]

I would probably be a supporter of a different ranking system that focuses on how close somebody is to contributing to the MLB roster. Afterall, that is the idea of the term prospect. Hawkins sure is strong, Danish has the quickest release on the planet, Anderson can hit etc, but these aren't grown men yet, so you have to talk subjective ceilings & floors ad nauseum. Check this out: we don't even know if Adams' body can handle 150-200 IP on a consistent basis and we want to say he's a top prospect for our ML Club. Get to AA, prove your ability to be a healthy horse, prove your dedication to your career, and then let's get excited. I think exceptions to this system might be generational potentials like Harper, Trout, Kolek etc- guys that just have IT, or just enough of IT to warrant expedited ascensions through systems.

 

Unless I'm overlooking somebody, IMO our top 2 prospects are Semien & M Johnson and it ain't even really close. Davidson & Rodon would be the top of the next tier.

 

And part of growing up and maturing is not only physical but mental. Sometimes it just clicks for a guy all of a sudden and he sees the game in a different light. Can't predict that s***.

[Chicago White Sox]

I would probably be a supporter of a different ranking system that focuses on how close somebody is to contributing to the MLB roster. Afterall, that is the idea of the term prospect. Hawkins sure is strong, Danish has the quickest release on the planet, Anderson can hit etc, but these aren't grown men yet, so you have to talk subjective ceilings & floors ad nauseum. Check this out: we don't even know if Adams' body can handle 150-200 IP on a consistent basis and we want to say he's a top prospect for our ML Club. Get to AA, prove your ability to be a healthy horse, prove your dedication to your career, and then let's get excited. I think exceptions to this system might be generational potentials like Harper, Trout, Kolek etc- guys that just have IT, or just enough of IT to warrant expedited ascensions through systems.

 

Unless I'm overlooking somebody, IMO our top 2 prospects are Semien & M Johnson and it ain't even really close. Davidson & Rodon would be the top of the next tier.

 

And part of growing up and maturing is not only physical but mental. Sometimes it just clicks for a guy all of a sudden and he sees the game in a different light. Can't predict that s***.

Rodon is our best prospect hands down. I love Semien & Johnson as prospects, but let's not be ridiculous here.

[maggsmaggs]

I would probably be a supporter of a different ranking system that focuses on how close somebody is to contributing to the MLB roster. Afterall, that is the idea of the term prospect. Hawkins sure is strong, Danish has the quickest release on the planet, Anderson can hit etc, but these aren't grown men yet, so you have to talk subjective ceilings & floors ad nauseum. Check this out: we don't even know if Adams' body can handle 150-200 IP on a consistent basis and we want to say he's a top prospect for our ML Club. Get to AA, prove your ability to be a healthy horse, prove your dedication to your career, and then let's get excited. I think exceptions to this system might be generational potentials like Harper, Trout, Kolek etc- guys that just have IT, or just enough of IT to warrant expedited ascensions through systems.

 

Unless I'm overlooking somebody, IMO our top 2 prospects are Semien & M Johnson and it ain't even really close. Davidson & Rodon would be the top of the next tier.

 

And part of growing up and maturing is not only physical but mental. Sometimes it just clicks for a guy all of a sudden and he sees the game in a different light. Can't predict that s***.

 

I think when valuing prospects, you truly need a holistic approach that balances proximity to the Majors, likelihood of reaching their ceiling, the ceiling of that player and mental make-up. I think Rodon is No. 1 in our system by a large degree. He is close to the Majors probably a year or 1.5 years away, has very strong make-up (according to the reports), has a huge ceiling and still has a solid chance to reach it. At worst, he probably is a useful mid-rotation arm ala John Danks before his injury. At his best, you have another Chris Sale in your rotation.

 

I like Johnson and Semien, but neither overwhelm you with tools (save for Johnson's speed which I think it a little overrated) and neither has a concrete position.

Edited June 22, 2014 by maggsmaggs

[Chicago White Sox]

I think when valuing prospects, you truly need a holistic approach that balances proximity to the Majors, likelihood of reaching their ceiling, the ceiling of that player and mental make-up. I think Rodon is No. 1 in our system by a large degree. He is close to the Majors probably a year or 1.5 years away, has very strong make-up (according to the reports), has a huge ceiling and still has a solid chance to reach it. At worst, he probably is a useful mid-rotation arm ala John Danks before his injury. At his best, you have another Chris Sale in your rotation.

 

I like Johnson and Semien, but neither overwhelm you with tools (save for Johnson's speed which I think it a little overrated) and neither has a concrete position.

I agreed with everything you said until the Johnson's speed is overrated comment. All scouting reports I have read have put it in the 70 to 80 range, meaning it's plus plus.

[maggsmaggs]

I agreed with everything you said until the Johnson's speed is overrated comment. All scouting reports I have read have put it in the 70 to 80 range, meaning it's plus plus.

I am going off the 80 grade. And I just think that he may have terrific raw speed, it simply is not manifesting itself on the baseball field yet. He is only 14 for 23 in SBs.

[Rowand44]

I am going off the 80 grade. And I just think that he may have terrific raw speed, it simply is not manifesting itself on the baseball field yet. He is only 14 for 23 in SBs.

Meh, sb's are far from the only thing elite speed does for a player.

[southsider2k5]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB Jun 20

 

Micah Johnson. @wooding_charlie: @WhiteSox Second Best Prospect assuming Rodon 1.

[NorthSideSox72]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB Jun 20

 

Micah Johnson. @wooding_charlie: @WhiteSox Second Best Prospect assuming Rodon 1.

Interesting. I still put him at 3 or 4 right now, behind Rodon, Anderson, possibly Hawkins. I think people are forgetting about Johnson's defensive woes.

 

[Eminor3rd]

Interesting. I still put him at 3 or 4 right now, behind Rodon, Anderson, possibly Hawkins. I think people are forgetting about Johnson's defensive woes.

 

That's my thought , too. Anderson has defensive warts, too, but the ceiling is higher.

 

Still, the guy is close. I think it's definitely defensible to slot Johnson #2.

[Dunt]

If Micah is #2, I think it's reasonable to see 4 Top 100 prospects in the system then as I think Hawkins is worthy of being in there.

[Chicago White Sox]

If Micah is #2, I think it's reasonable to see 4 Top 100 prospects in the system then as I think Hawkins is worthy of being in there.

Hawkins is in the top 7 in OPS in the Carolina League and is one of the younger players in that group. Like you said, I think all four of those guys deserve top 100 status, and quite frankly, if Montas keeps up his performance (obviously that remains to be seen), he'd have a great shot at making the list as well IMO.