Dunn's Future

[Dunt]

I know a lot of people are hoping to move him midseason and understandably so, but is there a chance the Sox could extend him a qualifying offer after the season? Im not sure how qualifying offers quite work, but there is a lack of solid left handed bats in free agency this year and we could still land a pick if he turns it down.

[Balta1701]

I know a lot of people are hoping to move him midseason and understandably so, but is there a chance the Sox could extend him a qualifying offer after the season? Im not sure how qualifying offers quite work, but there is a lack of solid left handed bats in free agency this year and we could still land a pick if he turns it down.

If the White Sox offer him a qualifying offer next season they are committing to pay him a 1 year, ~$14 million contract if he accepts. After the last 4 years, I find it extremely difficult that the White Sox would be interested in offering him that kind of money regardless of what he does the next few months.

[Y2Jimmy0]

If the White Sox offer him a qualifying offer next season they are committing to pay him a 1 year, ~$14 million contract if he accepts. After the last 4 years, I find it extremely difficult that the White Sox would be interested in offering him that kind of money regardless of what he does the next few months.

 

 

The worst case scenario would be Dunn accepting the QO and the Sox paying him $14 million on a 1 year deal. Is it worth the risk of trying to acquire the draft pick for him in a year when the team won't be spending a ton of money? I'd consider doing it but I definitely understand those against it.

[Balta1701]

The worst case scenario would be Dunn accepting the QO and the Sox paying him $14 million on a 1 year deal. Is it worth the risk of trying to acquire the draft pick for him in a year when the team won't be spending a ton of money? I'd consider doing it but I definitely understand those against it.

I think the White Sox could find far better uses for $14 million and if someone else is willing to risk >$10 million on Adam Dunn next year I'd say let them.

 

He'd have to be either crazy or really, really sick of this organization to turn that down. If he did turn it down, unless he really catches fire the next 3 months I'd say it'd be >90% certain he'd be sitting out until the draft pick compensation expires like several people have been doing this year.

[Dick Allen]

QO for Dunn? Good God man.

 

I can assure you that is not going to happen, and it is from no inside source.

[cabiness42]

I know a lot of people are hoping to move him midseason and understandably so, but is there a chance the Sox could extend him a qualifying offer after the season? Im not sure how qualifying offers quite work, but there is a lack of solid left handed bats in free agency this year and we could still land a pick if he turns it down.

 

Given the problems that some QO guys have had finding jobs this past offseason, combined with Dunn's age and shaky past couple seasons, there is ZERO chance he turns down a QO. If a team is offering a good prospect for Dunn, the Sox have to take it, even if they are in the hunt for the WC at the time. Also, remember that the team the Sox trade him to can't make him a QO, so the Sox would not have to give up a pick if they ended up getting him back in free agency.

[Eminor3rd]

You people are so fickle. You would have stabbed the guy just two months ago.

 

Sox will move on from him -- if he keeps hitting this well he'll be more valuable as a trade chip. If he regresses to his normal 110ish wRC+ (which is more likely), Viciedo can keep the spot warm for Ravelo/Abreu.

[southsider2k5]

I know a lot of people are hoping to move him midseason and understandably so, but is there a chance the Sox could extend him a qualifying offer after the season? Im not sure how qualifying offers quite work, but there is a lack of solid left handed bats in free agency this year and we could still land a pick if he turns it down.

 

No.

No, man.

s***, no, man.

I believe you'd get your ass kicked sayin' something like that, man.

 

[Dick Allen]

The Sox aren't getting a good prospect for Adam Dunn. As Sheldon says, anyone who thinks so must have taken a marijuana.

[Balta1701]

The Sox aren't getting a good prospect for Adam Dunn. As Sheldon says, anyone who thinks so must have taken a marijuana.

Do what the White Sox did with the other 3 guys in the Peavy deal. Try to get a guy or two in the low/mid levels of A-ball with 1-2 projectable skills and see what happens.

[Y2Jimmy0]

You people are so fickle. You would have stabbed the guy just two months ago.

 

Sox will move on from him -- if he keeps hitting this well he'll be more valuable as a trade chip. If he regresses to his normal 110ish wRC+ (which is more likely), Viciedo can keep the spot warm for Ravelo/Abreu.

 

 

I would not have. I think I may be Dunn's biggest supporter on this board.

[witesoxfan]

I would not have. I think I may be Dunn's biggest supporter on this board.

 

I will fight for this title!

[Y2Jimmy0]

I will fight for this title!

 

Haha alright. I still have a soft spot for the man because he was one of my favorite players prior to joining the White Sox. He was an absolute monster for like 8 seasons and people conveniently forget that. He definitely has not lived up to expectations here but man, that guy used to be awesome.

 

[witesoxfan]

Haha alright. I still have a soft spot for the man because he was one of my favorite players prior to joining the White Sox. He was an absolute monster for like 8 seasons and people conveniently forget that. He definitely has not lived up to expectations here but man, that guy used to be awesome.

 

No, I agree, and I have no problem sharing the title

 

There's no way the Sox are anywhere near where they are right now without Dunn in the lineup. They are at least still alive in the race and there's someone in the lineup who can resemble a threat to take you deep.

[Dick Allen]

No, I agree, and I have no problem sharing the title

 

There's no way the Sox are anywhere near where they are right now without Dunn in the lineup. They are at least still alive in the race and there's someone in the lineup who can resemble a threat to take you deep.

Considering the crap you give someone when they said AJ would make have made a big difference last year by pointing out his WAR, it is interesting you write there's no way the Sox are anywhere near where they are right now without Dunn in the lineup when he is sporting a 0.3 WAR.

[lasttriptotulsa]

I will fight for this title!

 

Me as well. Aside from Buehrle, Dunn is my favorite player in MLB.

[witesoxfan]

Considering the crap you give someone when they said AJ would make have made a big difference last year by pointing out his WAR, it is interesting you write there's no way the Sox are anywhere near where they are right now without Dunn in the lineup when he is sporting a 0.3 WAR.

 

OK, they'd be exactly where they are. Are you happy now?

 

They are still a game below .500, but it wouldn't be surprising if they were 4 or 5 games below if he weren't here. WAR is context neutral. That homer he hit last night that was the difference in the Sox winning and losing was not context neutral. The Sox would have been better last year with AJ. Maybe 72 wins, maybe 75, maybe 67 wins. It's not the difference between them competing and not.

 

One more FYI - Dunn's WPA this year is 0.72. That's currently on pace to be his best total since 2010.

Edited May 21, 2014 by witesoxfan

[Dick Allen]

OK, they'd be exactly where they are. Are you happy now?

 

They are still a game below .500, but it wouldn't be surprising if they were 4 or 5 games below if he weren't here. WAR is context neutral. That homer he hit last night that was the difference in the Sox winning and losing was not context neutral. The Sox would have been better last year with AJ. Maybe 72 wins, maybe 75, maybe 67 wins. It's not the difference between them competing and not.

 

One more FYI - Dunn's WPA this year is 0.72. That's currently on pace to be his best total since 2010.

LMAO.

You often use a guy's WAR and add it to the team win total to tell us what difference he would have made. You did it with AJ last year, laughing at Greg thinking he would have made more than a couple of games difference. Now, a quarter way through the season, Adam Dunn could have already made 2 or 3 games difference? At least be consistent.

 

The good news is Dunn's production this season isn't all that much better than his production the last calendar year. He might be able to maintain it or at least come pretty close.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Dick Allen

[elrockinMT]

I would not mind Adam Dunn staying on this team beyond this season. But, I don't think $14M is realistic or that he has earned that kind of money. I have a feeling that Dunn might agree and if he were to stay it would be at a lower salary but still be a good living for a man who can hit 40 homers

[witesoxfan]

The good news is Dunn's production this season isn't all that much better than his production the last calendar year. He might be able to maintain it or at least come pretty close.

 

You obviously have not looked at Dunn's numbers very closely then.

 

Dunn 2013 - .219/.320/.442/.762, 12.5% BB rate, 31.1% K rate

Dunn 2014 - .250/.394/.476/.869, 18.7% BB rate, 29% K rate

 

How is any of that "not that much better than his production the last calendar year?" Please, explain.

[Dick Allen]

You obviously have not looked at Dunn's numbers very closely then.

 

Dunn 2013 - .219/.320/.442/.762, 12.5% BB rate, 31.1% K rate

Dunn 2014 - .250/.394/.476/.869, 18.7% BB rate, 29% K rate

 

How is any of that "not that much better than his production the last calendar year?" Please, explain.

First, look up the definition of calendar year. Then go look at the last 365 days of stats. He was beyond horrible in April and May last year.

 

And giving me crap about it is saying he really has little chance to keep it up. The exact opposite of what I wrote.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

2011 We all know that story, but Beckham and Rios were also among the five worst OPS for qualified hitters, Dunn would have been worst, and Juan Pierre wasn't far off

 

2012 800 OPS (MLB rank, #57)

2013 762 (MLB rank, #69)

2014 869 (MLB rank, #26)

[NorthSideSox72]

Dunn hitting well and Beckham seemingly improving are both best case scenarios, whether you want the team to compete or you want tradeable assets. A guy like Dunn, if he keeps up where he is, can be shipped off to a contender in July for a prospect. It won't be a super high-end prospect, but his value in power is at a premium right now. You can shave off, say, $6M from your books, and get back some sort of prospect. And that's exactly what the Sox should do, unless they are somehow seriously incontention in July (and I don't mean a few games and a few teams out of the last wildcard spot). That's $6M more they may have to spend next year, and maybe another prospect to add to the system.

 

[witesoxfan]

I think if Adam Dunn weren't on the team right now, the Sox would only have 2 wins.

[caulfield12]

Dunn hitting well and Beckham seemingly improving are both best case scenarios, whether you want the team to compete or you want tradeable assets. A guy like Dunn, if he keeps up where he is, can be shipped off to a contender in July for a prospect. It won't be a super high-end prospect, but his value in power is at a premium right now. You can shave off, say, $6M from your books, and get back some sort of prospect. And that's exactly what the Sox should do, unless they are somehow seriously incontention in July (and I don't mean a few games and a few teams out of the last wildcard spot). That's $6M more they may have to spend next year, and maybe another prospect to add to the system.

 

 

Or it's just erasing $6 million in revenue loss due to lower attendance.

 

 

It's a risky endeavor to invest in pitching in the FA market. We're already seeing signs of Verlander deteriorating many years before the end of that deal.

 

Scherzer, Lester and Shields...I can't see us touching those guys.

 

And Masterson supposedly turned down $50 million for 3 years from the Indians but for the White Sox to commit let's say $80 million over even 4 seasons to him...they were willing to gamble on Tanaka because of his age and ace potential, but based on what he's looking like so far this year, would anyone jump up and down with joy getting Masterson for $80/4 (were he to continue putting up relatively pedestrian numbers)?

 

Last year, he was very good, better than Quintana. But this year, he's giving up more hits than IP, a WHIP of around 1.5 and a 5+ ERA.

 

Maybe the looming contract situation/FA is in his head (see Sandoval in SF), but that disappearing ability "disease" has infected Carlos Santana, Bourn and Nick Swisher as well.

 

http://www.indiansbaseballinsider.com/blog...easonable-63355

 

 

Joe Chengery

March 23, 2014 - 10:59 PM EDT

While the shorter length (and virtually no one thought they'd take a two-year deal, and the preference for them really is three) helps, it's still a risk, and still a lot of payroll to tie up in a guy who has not put up back-to-back good seasons, and is a borderline frontline starter (i.e. #2) at best. Signing Kazmir would have probably been more prudent; as I said before, the length of Ubaldo's contract would have made me shy away, but on the other hand, Ubaldo has matched or outdone Masterson over their careers, and it was a reasonable bet he could maintain a level of success here. Would it have been as good as the second half of 2013? That probably wasn't likely because very few pitchers stay in that "hot zone"- even Verlander hasn't been as dominant as he was a few seasons ago, but I think with (Mickey) Callaway's guidance and familiar surroundings, Ubaldo could have been a consistently good starter at a lower cost. I'm not as sure of that elsewhere; like I said though, I would have preferred Ubaldo at three years plus an option, but that turned out NOT to be an option in the end.

 

Keep in mind that no one expected Masterson to take a two-year deal, and the only real reason he's doing it is because of a possible change in the QO in the next bargaining agreement; taking a shorter contract would still enable him to still get a larger contract while he's still in his prime. A QO would probably affect his value since his track record is no better, and arguably worse, than Jimenez and Garza, so the shorter p-length contract is a calculated move on the part of Masterson and his agent, just as it was to make it seem as if the contract offer is a discount, when in reality, it isn't.

 

Seth, I still don't think Masterson's 2013 was that great; his 2011 was better, and his 2012 wasn't much better than Ubaldo's and that's where the rub is- can Masterson put together back-to-back strong seasons, presuming 2013 was a strong season? (I think Ubaldo had the stronger, more consistent overall 2013, along with a healthier 2013). If Masterson can put together a strong 2014 (more like he did in 2011 with better command, since I'm not confident his H and K rates will be as strong in 2014 based on his track record, necessitating the need for better command), it will be the first time he's done that in his career. I think that is a major reason why the Indians are hesitating - which Masterson are you going to get- the strong three, borderline two starter like in 2011 and parts of 2013, or the inconsistent 4-5 starter you got in 2012, and even parts of 2010 and 2013? That's why they don't think putting down 1/6 to 1/5 of this year's and next year's payroll is the best idea, especially when other salaries will be increasing next year (including Kipnis, who they want to sign long term, plus any upgrades the Indians may need next offseason. Signing Masterson to such a contract may tie their hands to the point where they won't be able to sign anyone of significance, even a Murphy-level signing).

Edited May 21, 2014 by caulfield12