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Dunn's Future


Dunt

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ May 21, 2014 -> 02:28 PM)
gotta talk about something in the downtime, so we might as well argue the worth of sabermetric stats. It isnt like we just heard Chris Sale is starting tomorrow

Chris Sale? He's a bum. Let's talk about making Adam Dunn a qualifying offer with as little substance as possible!

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 21, 2014 -> 02:35 PM)
You are correct on this statement, they did not. However, they were the first ones to properly value the walk. Remember when Steve Garvey won the MVP in 1974 with 31 walks but a .312 average, while his teammate Jimmy Wynn hit for a .271 average but walked 108 times?

 

So, obviously if you are valuing walks properly, you do not believe sabermetrics to be a gimmick. If you are suggesting otherwise, please choose one of the two players I have provided. Here is the post again for your reference.

 

 

Player A - .263 BA, 41 HR, 114 RBI, 96 R, 5 SB, 4 CS

Player B - .276 BA, 28 HR, 66 RBI, 75 R, 5 SB, 0 CS

 

There are only very minor differences in era here. Please tell me which of these back of the baseball card players you would prefer to have on your team. One of them was a notorious abuser of PEDs while the other was merely suspected.

 

I wholeheartedly agree that Sabremetricians brought to light the importance of walks. After that though . . .

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Well that escalated quickly.

 

Sabremetrics are what they are, some of the tools they provide are useful in building a roster and putting together a team, most are good for trying to put an end to discussions with your buddies of who was the better player when you were a kid. All statistics have some level of usefulness, though they must all be taken with a grain of salt since they are absent of complete context.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 21, 2014 -> 02:41 PM)
I wholeheartedly agree that Sabremetricians brought to light the importance of walks. After that though . . .

 

That was the first thing that really came to light and was used by MLB teams. And you understand how important that is. Which, by itself, makes sabermetrics a non-gimmick.

 

I think we've made a breakthrough today, boys. There are about a zillion other things that sabermetrics do that are awesome, but I'm stopping there!

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 21, 2014 -> 08:47 PM)
Wait until they resign him to a one year, seven million dollar deal.

 

Ah, we're not going to have to worry about that. He can go sign with Minnesota or somebody for one year at a time.

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There's a thread for SABR questions. Marty34 should go here to ask questions. Don't feed him anymore. He's gotten fat and bloated off troll food.

 

On topic, I don't know what options we're looking at for DH next year, besides maybe Viciedo? I don't know if his offense will fit there, though. I'd definitely accept his current line there - .296/.354/.472/.826 - but who knows if that will continue. If he drops back to a .700 - .750 player, you can't afford to play him at DH (probably can't afford to play him anywhere honestly). With that in mind, and assuming there's nothing else at DH on the FA market, I'd be fine with a non-qualifying offer to Dunn for a year or two.

Edited by almagest
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QUOTE (greg775 @ May 21, 2014 -> 02:59 PM)
Ah, we're not going to have to worry about that. He can go sign with Minnesota or somebody for one year at a time.

 

While I would bet my house that we aren't giving him a qualifying offer, it would not surprise me at all if we signed him to a greatly reduced one year deal. A good Adam Dunn still makes sense for the White Sox line up.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ May 21, 2014 -> 12:59 PM)
No, my point to Greg last year was that the Sox were so bad, one 5-6 WAR player wasn't going to get the Sox into the playoffs, and in fact would have cost the Sox about 2-3 draft positions.

 

This year, a 5-6 WAR player might actually make the difference in getting into the playoffs, but aside from that, Dunn's biggest value is his trade value. So far this year, Seattle has a .597 OPS from the DH position, .664 for the Yankees, .775 for Oakland and .785 for Baltimore. I think people are underestimating what one of these teams might give up to get Dunn.

Exactly, with so much parity across the AL especially in the east; Dunn's services will be highly sought after during the trade deadline. I would expect to get a couple of B level prospects back. Outside of BOS, DET, TOR nearly every team in the hunt for the post season could use and upgrade at DH.

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I'll predict right now that Dunn will be in Houston next season.

 

It's home.

 

His kids are school age.

 

The Astros have money to spend.

 

Make it happen.

 

At Dunn's age I would think going to a contender would be a bigger priority.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 21, 2014 -> 01:58 PM)
What players have Sabremetrics discovered? I could tell you Mike Trout is an elite player.

 

Here's a list of the first ten players I can think of who have been underrated by traditional statistics, but that sabermetrics have identified as very good (most of which have been paid accordingly):

 

1. Ben Zobrist

2. Brett Gardner

3. Alex Gordon

4. Michael Bourn

5. Howie Kendrick

6. Nike Napoli

7. JJ Hardy

8. Russell Martin

9. Angel Pagan

10. Andres Torres

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QUOTE (almagest @ May 21, 2014 -> 03:01 PM)
There's a thread for SABR questions. Marty34 should go here to ask questions. Don't feed him anymore. He's gotten fat and bloated off troll food.

 

You can't direct him anywhere, he refuses to read anything that may educate him on things he's already decided to hate.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 21, 2014 -> 03:46 PM)
Here's a list of the first ten players I can think of who have been underrated by traditional statistics, but that sabermetrics have identified as very good (most of which have been paid accordingly):

 

1. Ben Zobrist

2. Brett Gardner

3. Alex Gordon

4. Michael Bourn

5. Howie Kendrick

6. Nike Napoli

7. JJ Hardy

8. Russell Martin

9. Angel Pagan

10. Andres Torres

 

What statistics are showing these players as underrated?

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 21, 2014 -> 03:48 PM)
You can't direct him anywhere, he refuses to read anything that may educate him on things he's already decided to hate.

 

I don't hate Sabremetrics. I have issues with how they are applied and the importance placed on bootleg stats.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 21, 2014 -> 03:03 PM)
I don't hate Sabremetrics. I have issues with how they are applied and the importance placed on bootleg stats.

 

Then make an intelligent argument about which ones are misapplied and why it's wrong. You can't do that if you don't take the time to understand what they are. Like, if WAR is messed up, why? How can you even think is IS or ISN'T messed up if you don't have at least a basic understanding of linear weights? If you hate the defensive metric component, what is it about the defensive metrics that you think are wrong? Too often people think advanced metrics are wrong simply because they don't always confirm that person's per-conceived notion.

 

And, like I said, there's NOTHING wrong with not caring enough about them to learn about them. Really. It's just impossible to have an intelligent opinion on them if you don't know about them.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 21, 2014 -> 04:14 PM)
Then make an intelligent argument about which ones are misapplied and why it's wrong. You can't do that if you don't take the time to understand what they are. Like, if WAR is messed up, why? How can you even think is IS or ISN'T messed up if you don't have at least a basic understanding of linear weights? If you hate the defensive metric component, what is it about the defensive metrics that you think are wrong? Too often people think advanced metrics are wrong simply because they don't always confirm that person's per-conceived notion.

 

And, like I said, there's NOTHING wrong with not caring enough about them to learn about them. Really. It's just impossible to have an intelligent opinion on them if you don't know about them.

 

Because he can't.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 21, 2014 -> 12:46 PM)
That was the first thing that really came to light and was used by MLB teams. And you understand how important that is. Which, by itself, makes sabermetrics a non-gimmick.

 

I think we've made a breakthrough today, boys. There are about a zillion other things that sabermetrics do that are awesome, but I'm stopping there!

Nothing matters except it's not what you hit, it's when you hit it.

 

 

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