Dunn's Future

[greg775]

Exactly, with so much parity across the AL especially in the east; Dunn's services will be highly sought after during the trade deadline. I would expect to get a couple of B level prospects back. Outside of BOS, DET, TOR nearly every team in the hunt for the post season could use and upgrade at DH.

 

Guys, are we really to the point thinking we can get anything for Adam Dunn? I guess a couple of fringe prospects 'might' be reasonable but I still can't imagine any team wanting Dunn to do anything except pinch hit. His track record in the AL has been that bad. Maybe the NL.

[Balta1701]

Guys, are we really to the point thinking we can get anything for Adam Dunn? I guess a couple of fringe prospects 'might' be reasonable but I still can't imagine any team wanting Dunn to do anything except pinch hit. His track record in the AL has been that bad. Maybe the NL.

His track record is no worse than your recent gambling record yet you continue to offer predictions.

[Marty34]

Then make an intelligent argument about which ones are misapplied and why it's wrong. You can't do that if you don't take the time to understand what they are. Like, if WAR is messed up, why? How can you even think is IS or ISN'T messed up if you don't have at least a basic understanding of linear weights? If you hate the defensive metric component, what is it about the defensive metrics that you think are wrong? Too often people think advanced metrics are wrong simply because they don't always confirm that person's per-conceived notion.

 

And, like I said, there's NOTHING wrong with not caring enough about them to learn about them. Really. It's just impossible to have an intelligent opinion on them if you don't know about them.

 

Give me DOB, OBP, and SLG, K's and BB's for a hitter along with his historical numbers and I will make as reasonable a judgement on a hitter as any Sabermetrician using advanced metrics.

[sammy esposito]

Considering the crap you give someone when they said AJ would make have made a big difference last year by pointing out his WAR, it is interesting you write there's no way the Sox are anywhere near where they are right now without Dunn in the lineup when he is sporting a 0.3 WAR.

In the case of another power hitting lefty by the name of Thome we bought his contract out but Thome signed for a 0ne or two million somewhere else. this kept us from paying the 14 he would have gotten according to his option. Thome could have resigned with us for that amount but choose to go elsewhere.

 

 

[caulfield12]

The Boston Red Sox have won 3 World Series in 10 years. How's that? If that's not good enough, the Rays have become one of the best and most well run teams in the majors, the Athletics are one of the best teams in the league, the Cardinals have been at the top of the division and competitive for a number of years now, and the Astros have the best farm system in the majors. Meanwhile, teams that don't use them as extensively (because, let's face it, EVERY team uses sabermetrics) like the Royals, Twins, and Mariners are consistently finishing at the bottom of their divisions.

 

Calling it a gimmick is the same thing as calling home runs gimmicks. It's a ridiculous premise based entirely on the concept of a term I refer to as "Marty-trolling."

 

The problem isn't SABR stats themselves, it's using them to put together a winning team.

 

The Mariners were noted all around baseball for a one-year turnaround largely based on acquiring undervalued defensive assets like Gutierrez in CF (and that had everything to do with applying the new defensive metrics of the time). That was a niche for awhile, but they couldn't exploit it enough to build a contender simply because those teams couldn't produce enough offense to go along with the defense and pitching.

 

The Royals used a similar philosophy with their bullpen...that having great middle relievers and set-up guys was another niche to be exploited and could give them a competitive advantage. The thing is that the Moore philosophy comes directly from the Schuerholz philosophy, which underpins everything the Braves have done for the past 20 years or so. The Braves have had some of the best pitching staffs of the past 20-30 years, same with the Giants and the A's success with Moneyball had more to do with Mulder/Zito/Hudson than any single factor. We all know that. Nobody's equating SABR analysis with identifying pitching for those three organizations.

 

The Pirates did it with defensive shifts and having their starters go to more two-seam sinking fastballs and now everyone is shifting their infields this season and the Pirates are back in their customary place in the standings.

 

In response to the Mike Trout comment, well, Luhnow was the one in the Cardinals' farm system who is/was most identified with SABR analysis, and we all know that simply using the OPS/SLG/OBP/walk numbers of a decade ago is of very little help in scouting players (maybe moreso for collegiate players) around the world and projecting their ultimate big league success. Time will tell how good the Astros' philosophy is.

 

For that matter, if Epstein was following the Bill James model, and he is also building one of the best minor league systems in baseball and clearly has been exposed to that side of front office philosophy as he was one of the first of the "whiz kids" with Ivy League educations, I don't think it's fair to say the Astros have a great farm system and then all we read at SoxTalk is about how terrible the Cubs' major league roster is and how they've been rebuilding for 3-4 years now. (Which is pretty much what the Astros have been doing, as well). Aren't the Astros and Cubs doing the exact same thing, minus the acquisition of Edwin Jackson, who has actually been decent this year...and then trading away starting pitching assets for prospects (Hammel, Samardzija and Arrieta will be the next to go), like what we wanted to do with Paulino and our bullpen guys?

 

With the Ryan example, so much damage was done by Bill Smith that it's taking Ryan time to undo the damage. The fact of the matter is that their system identified Hicks, Gibson, Buxton and Sano, all Top 50 prospects. And you can't argue with the results of 2002-2010 with the Twins. Smith made some terrible trades during that timeframe (JJ Hardy to the Orioles) and Morneau got hurt and they had to shed Cuddyer/Kubel/Nathan because of Mauer's contract. None of that has anything to do with SABR or anti-SABR.

 

Finally, one of the most forward-thinking administrators in the game (Hall in Arizona) just picked LaRussa to run things, who is as anti-SABR as Hawk Harrelson. Towers over there was thought to be the best GM's in the game before he left the Padres after 2009 and he was also pretty notably anti-SABR. It wasn't so long ago (before they messed up the Justin Upton situation) that the Dbacks were the darling franchise of MLB with Gibson in his first season over there. Let's not forget, the DBacks' system produced the most WAR of any system from 2002-2012, if you look at players who originated over there.

Edited May 22, 2014 by caulfield12

[Jake]

I would say conventional statistics vastly overrated Michael Bourn and sabermetrics showed exactly how bad of a deal he was as a free agent. Aging veteran who wasn't a league average offensive player and whose value was predicated solely on his legs. Unfortunately, he had a high batting average and was fast, the former of which is especially overrated

[caulfield12]

I would say conventional statistics vastly overrated Michael Bourn and sabermetrics showed exactly how bad of a deal he was as a free agent. Aging veteran who wasn't a league average offensive player and whose value was predicated solely on his legs. Unfortunately, he had a high batting average and was fast, the former of which is especially overrated

 

See Chone Figgins.

 

Stolen bases always get overvalued.

 

SABR analysis typically would tear apart Juan Pierre, even though he was universally loved by his managers and teammates for his work ethic and leadership skills. You need those type of players on your team, but you shouldn't ever overpay for them and you shouldn't ever have more than 1 or 2 in your line-up.

 

The Indians are definitely regretting the Bourn and Swisher (darling of OBP) deals right now.

Edited May 22, 2014 by caulfield12

[Marty34]

I would say conventional statistics vastly overrated Michael Bourn and sabermetrics showed exactly how bad of a deal he was as a free agent. Aging veteran who wasn't a league average offensive player and whose value was predicated solely on his legs. Unfortunately, he had a high batting average and was fast, the former of which is especially overrated

 

The Indians are at the front of the Sabremetric line.

[Eminor3rd]

Give me DOB, OBP, and SLG, K's and BB's for a hitter along with his historical numbers and I will make as reasonable a judgement on a hitter as any Sabermetrician using advanced metrics.

 

I'm assuming since you ignored everything in my post, you're going to continue having no clue what you're talking about. Which is fine because you aren't fooling anyone.

[Marty34]

I'm assuming since you ignored everything in my post, you're going to continue having no clue what you're talking about. Which is fine because you aren't fooling anyone.

 

you consider OBP an advanced metric. It's not.

[greg775]

His track record is no worse than your recent gambling record yet you continue to offer predictions.

 

I have a policy of not bragging but you guys keep bringing up my gambling only when I lose. I would have won you A LOT of money tonight betting the under and the Royals in a parlay.

[caulfield12]

I have a policy of not bragging but you guys keep bringing up my gambling only when I lose. I would have won you A LOT of money tonight betting the under and the Royals in a parlay.

 

 

But you didn't make that bet, did you?

 

After the way the Royals have lost these games....Moutaskas in free fall....the momentum was definitely against KC, except for Guthrie's track record since 2012 against the White Sox, and especially at Kauffman.

 

Then you have would have been mad at Guthrie since he's something like 8-3 against the White Sox during that time frame (had the White Sox won).

Edited May 22, 2014 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

you consider OBP an advanced metric. It's not.

 

No, no I don't.

[greg775]

But you didn't make that bet, did you?

 

After the way the Royals have lost these games....Moutaskas in free fall....the momentum was definitely against KC, except for Guthrie's track record since 2012 against the White Sox, and especially at Kauffman.

 

Then you have would have been mad at Guthrie since he's something like 8-3 against the White Sox during that time frame (had the White Sox won).

 

I don't have a bookie but I sure would have made that bet if I was in Vegas. The Guthrie thing is automatic against the Sox. That's the key to the bet. I figured Q would have a good game as well cause the Royals suck and he's pretty good, and we'd lose 5-1 ish. That's a lock for the under. I don't mind gambling when it's logical. And I think this was close to a lock. That first game I predicted was a lock to be over. I just got the winner wrong as Sox overcame a 5-0 deficit and picked Dyson off second to win it.

[caulfield12]

I don't have a bookie but I sure would have made that bet if I was in Vegas. The Guthrie thing is automatic against the Sox. That's the key to the bet. I figured Q would have a good game as well cause the Royals suck and he's pretty good, and we'd lose 5-1 ish. That's a lock for the under. I don't mind gambling when it's logical. And I think this was close to a lock. That first game I predicted was a lock to be over. I just got the winner wrong as Sox overcame a 5-0 deficit and picked Dyson off second to win it.

 

 

I think the percentage of people who can make money consistently gambling on baseball is the same who are succeeding with penny stocks.

 

 

from Jayson Stark/espn.com

 

One last history lesson

 

Finally, we know what you're thinking. You're undoubtedly asking yourself (or maybe the person sitting next to you on that bar stool): What do the standings mean at this point?

 

Well, glad you asked. Since this is Year 3 of the two-wild-card era, I took a look back at the standings after 40 games in the first two years of this system and found:

 

Of the 20 teams that made the playoffs, 13 (or 65 percent) were in playoff position after 40 games.

 

Six of the other seven were no more than three games out of a playoff spot.

 

And the final team -- the 2013 Dodgers -- made all that math moot by going 53-13 between late June and early September.

 

But those 53-13 streaks don't come along every year. Or every decade. Or even every century. So if a team you root for is more than three games out right now, ummmm, might be time to rent a beach house. That'll make the summer fly by. Right?

 

 

 

The White Sox were 19-21 and 2 GB in the WC race at that time. Now we're 3 GB.

 

The Red Sox, Rays, Pirates and Reds better pick it up.

Edited May 22, 2014 by caulfield12

[Quin]

This thread is a microcosm of Soxtalk as a whole.

[Kyyle23]

This thread is a microcosm of Soxtalk as a whole.

 

Most threads that go past 10 pages tend to do that

[Steve9347]

Most threads that go past 10 pages tend to do that

You need to increase your posts per page to 50. Especially if you ever visit this site via mobile.

[LittleHurt05]

You need to increase your posts per page to 50. Especially if you ever visit this site via mobile.

 

100 posts per page FTW

[Kyyle23]

I have never actually played with the posts per page setting. never bothered me too much

[caulfield12]

http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/2013-03-28/...-isn-t-madness/

 

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2012-saberm...-saber-players/

 

Highly Analytical Organizations

 

Oakland Athletics

Houston Astros

Toronto Blue Jays

Chicago Cubs

Arizona Diamondbacks (trending back to "old school" now)

Cleveland Indians

Seattle Mariners

New York Mets

San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates*

Texas Rangers*

Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees

 

 

In Between Organizations

 

Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals*

Toronto Blue Jays

Philadelphia Phillies

Cincinnati Reds

Chicago White Sox

 

 

Old School

 

Los Angeles Angels

Atlanta Braves*

Los Angeles Dodgers

Baltimore Orioles

San Francisco Giants

Miami Marlins

Washington Nationals

Colorado Rockies

Kansas City Royals

Detroit Tigers

Minnesota Twins

 

*I’m especially unsure about these teams.

[witesoxfan]

you consider OBP an advanced metric. It's not.

 

It was a statistic made popular and relevant by the SABR community, but there are so, so many other stats out there right now that do more than OBP - wRC and wRC+, both - tell you how much more effective hitters are overall.

 

 

 

You need to increase your posts per page to 50. Especially if you ever visit this site via mobile.

 

I split the difference, cuz I view 75 (did you f***ing see what I did there????)

 

100 posts per page FTW

 

 

 

[cabiness42]

Interesting that the Mets and Rangers are supposed to be highly analytical organizations but both are in the top 6 in MLB in Sac Bunts. Disdain for the sac bunt is one of the calling cards of analytics.

[witesoxfan]

Interesting that the Mets and Rangers are supposed to be highly analytical organizations but both are in the top 6 in MLB in Sac Bunts. Disdain for the sac bunt is one of the calling cards of analytics.

 

For NL teams, it makes a bit more sense because pitchers are terrible at hitting. For the Rangers, their manager is Ron Washington, who is a f***ing moron but gets the most out of his guys.

[NorthSideSox72]

For NL teams, it makes a bit more sense because pitchers are terrible at hitting. For the Rangers, their manager is Ron Washington, who is a f***ing moron but gets the most out of his guys.

 

Ozzie, circa 2004-2009.