Gillaspie/Davidson Future

[Rowand44]

In what world is Johnson a better prospect the Semien? That's crazy talk.

I still like Semien better but it's not "crazy talk" to think Johnson is a better prospect. I'm sure plenty of people like Micah better.

 

Anywho, as people have said, there's still a ton of time to figure this out at 3b. To be honest, I'm not sold on either guy yet.

[harfman77]

I still like Semien better but it's not "crazy talk" to think Johnson is a better prospect. I'm sure plenty of people like Micah better.

 

Anywho, as people have said, there's still a ton of time to figure this out at 3b. To be honest, I'm not sold on either guy yet.

 

Maybe the Sox included as they give Micah everyday AB's in AAA while Semien rides the pine. There is also the possibility that they are marketing Johnson for a trade, but one of Semien, Johnson or Sanchez will likely be dealt this summer. Semien being the most likely given that he has ML experience.

[Andy the Clown]

Davidson hasn't looked like a future regular for the past year and a half.

[Dick Allen]

Maybe the Sox included as they give Micah everyday AB's in AAA while Semien rides the pine. There is also the possibility that they are marketing Johnson for a trade, but one of Semien, Johnson or Sanchez will likely be dealt this summer. Semien being the most likely given that he has ML experience.

I don't know why the Sox would trade him now. Seems to be a low point for trade value. What is someone going to give up for him? He hasn't shown he can hit much. He hasn't shown he can get on base. He hasn't show he can make a lot of contact, and he hasn't shown he's average with the glove(he has made a couple of really nice plays) He has basically shown he can give you an 8 or 9 pitch AB and then fan. Although he has come up big 3 times, I think all the negative knocks that out. Unless Taylorstreetsox gets a GM job, the Sox should hang on for a while.

[Jake]

Conor has been great and there's no reason to be moving heaven and earth to get him moved. He's clearly solid at 3B, but not remarkable. Maybe not above average. I don't have much beyond hearsay/Baseball America subscription to base this on, but it seems Davidson is probably a similar defender at 3B. They at least have similar ceilings as defensive players.

 

And we have to start this off by acknowledging two things:

 

-Davidson has put himself in a position where has something to prove in AAA again before we bother thinking about making space for him in the MLB lineup. He wouldn't have had to set the world on fire to be a constant source of speculation all season, but his bad start has demanded that he now really get hot before we think about this Gillaspie/Davidson situation very seriously.

-Gillaspie has proven a lot more than Davidson, but still, he hasn't proven s***. I don't think anybody would be surprised if he started to regress towards the average to slightly below average offensive player that we saw most of last season. Gillaspie is very much a "solid" guy at the plate, but his ceiling is relatively low and he doesn't have a prototypical corner IF bat.

 

With all that in mind, let's assume everything works out. Can either of them play a different position? Probably. Before the season, I was lobbying hard to get Gillaspie some reps at 2B. A left-handed bat like him would become lots more valuable if you could play him around the diamond, especially considering that he's never going to be a guy that starts 150+ games due to his struggles vs lefties. You have to think that just about anybody could learn LF, too. Same goes for Davidson in terms of LF. I think he's a decent enough athlete to maybe learn 2B.

 

If Davidson and Gillaspie are on the same team, Davidson is almost certainly going to get starts at 3B against lefties. It's a matter of where he is against righties. Maybe rotate guys into the DH role? Maybe Davidson goes to LF? Does Micah Johnson turn into a guy incapable of playing IF, going to OF?

 

Then you have inevitable injuries and such that could make these decisions simpler.

 

In what world is Johnson a better prospect the Semien? That's crazy talk.

 

I don't yet agree that Johnson's a better prospect, but it's getting really close. It's looking more like Micah can cut it defensively, which was really up in the air before the season. Also, before the season, it looked rather unclear whether Micah was going to hit well in AA. He hadn't really done that well after his call-up to A+ last season. Now we can see that his bat is ready for AAA, if not ready to dominate AAA.

 

The only thing about Micah's stock that has dropped this season is he has lost his touch stealing bases. I'm not sure if that's going to take care of itself or not. I also don't know the cause, though his efficiency went way down last season after moving out of A-. Luckily his bat is starting to look like he can be more than just a fast guy who gets on base adequately.

 

Marcus has been a little disappointing in MLB this season and lacks any of the exciting tools that Johnson has (though we might say Johnson's only plus tool is his speed, which he's not using - either way, Semien doesn't appear to be the same caliber of athlete). On the other hand, we've seen in the MiLB that Marcus has "plus" plate recognition, can swipe a bag, and has more than a little power. Even as he struggles, he appears competent. He looks good at both 2B and 3B and he's the only infielder in the near-MLB-ready organization short of Alexei that is likely to have the chops to play SS on a regular basis defensively. Maybe Carlos Sanchez, but again he's a guy whose bat isn't going to force us into doing anything with him.

 

It's close at this point, between the two. It's a good problem. Alexei has added to the "problem" since Marcus looked like a SS of the future. I still think Marcus should go to MiLB to get regular at-bats, but Mark Parent said in an interview that he thinks he'll learn more by being with the big league club. We'll see.

[Jake]

Davidson hasn't looked like a future regular for the past year and a half.

 

How do you figure?

 

Was it the 117 wRC+ (a league adjusted stat) in AAA? The 108 wRC+ in MLB?

 

Maybe the .308/.341/.564 line in spring training this year? Was the 17% K rate in that stretch too high?

 

The first time you could make a half decent argument that he looked like a non-regular would have been a couple weeks into his stint at Charlotte

[chitownsportsfan]

Gillaspie has played 28 out of 48 games, and hasn't homered yet from a power position.

 

They got time to figure this out.

 

3B isn't really a power position anymore. In 2013 MLB 3B had a wRC+ of 97and an ISO of only .142.

 

In 2014 those numbers are down even further wRC+ of only 93 this year with an ISO of .141

 

As a 3B that can maybe hit 300/350/400 against RHP, Conor is very, very valuable, even without much power. Players like him don't grow on trees and thinking that he's "blocking" Davidson is insane. If anything, Davidson needs to prove he can even be the other side of that platoon with Conor.

 

If Davidson is some stud then re-evaluate.

[Jake]

FWIW, Davidson over past 10 games:

 

12/38, 1 BB, 11 K, 2 HR, 2 2B, 5 RBI, .860 OPS. That isn't far off what I'd expect from him if he succeeds in MLB. He'll hit for a little lower average but walk a few more times if his past serves as a guide. I think a good version of him will strike out in about 25% of his at bats and walk in 8-10%. His average and his inability to hit more than 25-30 HR over a 160 game season would keep his OPS south of .900. It wouldn't shock me if his power stroke developed a little more as he certainly has the talent for it, but that is really difficult to project.

[chitownsportsfan]

FWIW, Davidson over past 10 games:

 

12/38, 1 BB, 11 K, 2 HR, 2 2B, 5 RBI, .860 OPS. That isn't far off what I'd expect from him if he succeeds in MLB. He'll hit for a little lower average but walk a few more times if his past serves as a guide. I think a good version of him will strike out in about 25% of his at bats and walk in 8-10%. His average and his inability to hit more than 25-30 HR over a 160 game season would keep his OPS south of .900. It wouldn't shock me if his power stroke developed a little more as he certainly has the talent for it, but that is really difficult to project.

 

As I posted a minute ago 3B is a wasteland right now in MLB. Davidson only "needs" like a 240/320/440 line to be a 2-3 WAR player at 3B, assuming "good enough" defense.

[Andy the Clown]

How do you figure?

 

Was it the 117 wRC+ (a league adjusted stat) in AAA? The 108 wRC+ in MLB?

 

Maybe the .308/.341/.564 line in spring training this year? Was the 17% K rate in that stretch too high?

 

The first time you could make a half decent argument that he looked like a non-regular would have been a couple weeks into his stint at Charlotte

 

Spring training means nothing,

 

His season in the high desert last year was not impressive -- at all.

[caulfield12]

Conor has been great and there's no reason to be moving heaven and earth to get him moved. He's clearly solid at 3B, but not remarkable. Maybe not above average. I don't have much beyond hearsay/Baseball America subscription to base this on, but it seems Davidson is probably a similar defender at 3B. They at least have similar ceilings as defensive players.

 

And we have to start this off by acknowledging two things:

 

-Davidson has put himself in a position where has something to prove in AAA again before we bother thinking about making space for him in the MLB lineup. He wouldn't have had to set the world on fire to be a constant source of speculation all season, but his bad start has demanded that he now really get hot before we think about this Gillaspie/Davidson situation very seriously.

-Gillaspie has proven a lot more than Davidson, but still, he hasn't proven s***. I don't think anybody would be surprised if he started to regress towards the average to slightly below average offensive player that we saw most of last season. Gillaspie is very much a "solid" guy at the plate, but his ceiling is relatively low and he doesn't have a prototypical corner IF bat.

 

With all that in mind, let's assume everything works out. Can either of them play a different position? Probably. Before the season, I was lobbying hard to get Gillaspie some reps at 2B. A left-handed bat like him would become lots more valuable if you could play him around the diamond, especially considering that he's never going to be a guy that starts 150+ games due to his struggles vs lefties. You have to think that just about anybody could learn LF, too. Same goes for Davidson in terms of LF. I think he's a decent enough athlete to maybe learn 2B.

 

If Davidson and Gillaspie are on the same team, Davidson is almost certainly going to get starts at 3B against lefties. It's a matter of where he is against righties. Maybe rotate guys into the DH role? Maybe Davidson goes to LF? Does Micah Johnson turn into a guy incapable of playing IF, going to OF?

 

Then you have inevitable injuries and such that could make these decisions simpler.

 

 

 

I don't yet agree that Johnson's a better prospect, but it's getting really close. It's looking more like Micah can cut it defensively, which was really up in the air before the season. Also, before the season, it looked rather unclear whether Micah was going to hit well in AA. He hadn't really done that well after his call-up to A+ last season. Now we can see that his bat is ready for AAA, if not ready to dominate AAA.

 

The only thing about Micah's stock that has dropped this season is he has lost his touch stealing bases. I'm not sure if that's going to take care of itself or not. I also don't know the cause, though his efficiency went way down last season after moving out of A-. Luckily his bat is starting to look like he can be more than just a fast guy who gets on base adequately.

 

Marcus has been a little disappointing in MLB this season and lacks any of the exciting tools that Johnson has (though we might say Johnson's only plus tool is his speed, which he's not using - either way, Semien doesn't appear to be the same caliber of athlete). On the other hand, we've seen in the MiLB that Marcus has "plus" plate recognition, can swipe a bag, and has more than a little power. Even as he struggles, he appears competent. He looks good at both 2B and 3B and he's the only infielder in the near-MLB-ready organization short of Alexei that is likely to have the chops to play SS on a regular basis defensively. Maybe Carlos Sanchez, but again he's a guy whose bat isn't going to force us into doing anything with him.

 

It's close at this point, between the two. It's a good problem. Alexei has added to the "problem" since Marcus looked like a SS of the future. I still think Marcus should go to MiLB to get regular at-bats, but Mark Parent said in an interview that he thinks he'll learn more by being with the big league club. We'll see.

 

See Billy Hamilton with the Reds, OPSing in the mid 600's and 16 steals/6 CS (only 73%). But very good defense at a premium position.

 

We opined all last season that those steal numbers weren't going to hold up at higher levels. That said, he might have been asked by the minor league coaching staff to focus more on his offensive production and less on stealing to protect his body from injury, who knows?

 

If Semien can't play SS, that really knocks down his value future-wise to the Sox. Then he's pretty much forced into a utility role, unless they really want to try him in LF and move Viciedo to DH, but that's an iffy proposition at best.

Edited May 22, 2014 by caulfield12

[SCCWS]

How do you figure?

 

Was it the 117 wRC+ (a league adjusted stat) in AAA? The 108 wRC+ in MLB?

 

Maybe the .308/.341/.564 line in spring training this year? Was the 17% K rate in that stretch too high?

 

The first time you could make a half decent argument that he looked like a non-regular would have been a couple weeks into his stint at Charlotte

 

So far he is a strikeout machine in 1.25 seasons at AAA. He has struck out at a 33% K rate between last year and this year and he is up to close to a 40% K rate this season. He makes Dunn and Flowers look like contact hitters.

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't know why the Sox would trade him now. Seems to be a low point for trade value. What is someone going to give up for him? He hasn't shown he can hit much. He hasn't shown he can get on base. He hasn't show he can make a lot of contact, and he hasn't shown he's average with the glove(he has made a couple of really nice plays) He has basically shown he can give you an 8 or 9 pitch AB and then fan. Although he has come up big 3 times, I think all the negative knocks that out. Unless Taylorstreetsox gets a GM job, the Sox should hang on for a while.

I know I wouldn't trade for a prospect if they struggled in their first month in the majors. I'd rather ignore their minor league track record and focus exclusively on their first 100 big league ABs.

Edited May 23, 2014 by Chicago White Sox