Possible Suitors for Gordon Beckham

[Eminor3rd]

FWIW, we can legitimately make the argument the Sox would be .500 or 2 games over with Reed, but they're not truly contending unless the wheels completely fall off the DET pitching staff.

 

I actually don't think we CAN make that argument in this case -- his results have been much better (in terms of saves) than both his run prevention numbers and peripherals would suggest. To me, that means if you just dropped his performance into another environment (or even just had do-overs in ARZ), it would be more likely to be bad than good.

 

I haven't watched him at all (other than against the Sox), but from a purely numerical and mixed-metaphor standpoint, he looks like a ticking time bomb living on borrowed time.

 

 

[witesoxfan]

Detroit has a flawed bullpen (Nathan isn't what he once was, and how much can you trust Joba Chamberlain or Al-Al?), and they've become a bit complacent with nobody to challenge them within the division the last couple of seasons (KC is unproven and on the ropes offensively and now are dealing with Ventura's ailment, Cleveland seems more like a "one year wonder" at the moment).

 

Porcello and Victor Martinez have never been THIS good with the Tigers, especially Porcello.

 

One of their other starters is an inexperienced rookie in Ray. This is Smyly's first full year in the rotation, and he'll wear down eventually from pitching in relief the last two seasons.

 

Verlander has gotten absolutely pounded his last three starts. Scherzer has been merely human.

 

 

Scherzer lasted six innings, allowing five runs on eight hits. He walked two and struck out four.

 

Scherzer, who was saved from his second loss when Hunter hit a solo home run in the seventh to tie the game, has allowed 12 runs on 20 hits over his past two games, a span of 13 innings.

 

The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner allowed 12 runs combined through his first nine starts (59 innings)

 

LAST FOUR=25 IP, 28 H, 15 ER, 12 BB, 22 K's, 1.6 WHIP, 5.40 ERA

 

 

 

Rajai Davis has been overachieving, too. They're getting little to nothing out of SS offensively with Romine and Worth. If they wouldn't have been able to pull off the Kinsler for Fielder trade, they would be in a world of hurt, IMO. Plus, you have the Evan Reed situation.

 

So yeah, they're still the favorites...but not by as much as one would have assumed a week ago when they were 27-13 and running away with things.

 

I just read this tl;dr post and have no idea how you pulled this out of your hat to argue that the Sox would be 2 games over .500 with Reed as the closer.

 

This post is like someone using the argument that "over easy eggs have a runny yolk" when asking why a medium rare steak is the perfect temperature.

[TaylorStSox]

I think Reeds change is actually his best pitch. When he has a feel for it, it has a ton of drop.

[Dick Allen]

He has 3. Fastball, slider, change. He doesn't use the changeup as much, but he should feature it more. Probably something Arizona is doing with him.

 

 

 

More trolling. I never said anything about last year. He was fairly solid last year as a closer, but had a tendency to give up big homers (WAR is not the best measure for relievers, but it's not the worst either, so I will let this pass).

 

However, he's been pretty mediocre this year. There's certainly room to improve, but that doesn't change what's happened. Thus, he would be the 4th or 5th best pitcher in the Sox bullpen right now. If you would like, I can give you any number of measures to indicate this.

His xFIP seems pretty good. He is 14 out of 16 in saves. Please provide the numbers. And please, it is not trolling. What is trolling is the guy suggesting Felipe Paulino may pitch 180 innings for the White Sox this year based on 7 starts in 2012 calling several posters "arguments" ridiculous this morning.

[southsider2k5]

His xFIP seems pretty good. He is 14 out of 16 in saves. Please provide the numbers. And please, it is not trolling. What is trolling is the guy suggesting Felipe Paulino may pitch 180 innings for the White Sox this year based on 7 starts in 2012 calling several posters "arguments" ridiculous this morning.

 

Trolling is making up ridiculous arguments and making people "prove" you wrong, and once they do, changing to another ridiculous argument and repeating the process. Or just dragging in non sequiturs from other threads.

[witesoxfan]

His xFIP seems pretty good. He is 14 out of 16 in saves. Please provide the numbers. And please, it is not trolling. What is trolling is the guy suggesting Felipe Paulino may pitch 180 innings for the White Sox this year based on 7 starts in 2012 calling several posters "arguments" ridiculous this morning.

 

Petricka, Putnam, and Webb all have ERAs lower than him (on the active roster). That puts him 4th best.

Belisario, Putnam, Downs, Petricka, and Webb all have lower FIPs than him. That puts him 6th best.

Putnam, Belisario, and Petricka all have WHIPs lower than him. That puts him 4th best.

 

His xFIP is nice, but it's aided by a high K rate and low BB rate. He has an incredibly low GB rate right now and, while his HR/FB is high right now, he's had problems with homers in the past. Something's going to give.

 

Also, believing that a guy with good stuff who was a great pitcher for a fairly large period of time was going to be a good pitcher is not trolling. It's believing in something. I've already owned up to that.

 

BTW, how's Ubaldo doing? You wanted to give him $50 million. That would have looked a lot better going to Saltalamacchia, wouldn't it? And I "only" wanted him for $40 million. That would have been a hell of a lot better than anything you would have committed the money to which, as I recall, was basically anything Marty wanted.

 

/drops mic

[caulfield12]

I just read this tl;dr post and have no idea how you pulled this out of your hat to argue that the Sox would be 2 games over .500 with Reed as the closer.

 

This post is like someone using the argument that "over easy eggs have a runny yolk" when asking why a medium rare steak is the perfect temperature.

 

 

Obviously, I'm not talking about Reed...simply the fact that someone said it was ridiculous that the White Sox could compete with the Tigers this season...and asked for the case to be made.

 

I'd have to find the original post that brought up the Tigers and copy what started it all, but I'm too lazy to "prove" anything at the moment.

 

Also, obviously, my argument has nothing to do with Addison Reed, as you can see where I highlighted exactly what it was that I was responding to.

Edited May 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[clyons]

Um, so who ARE the possible suitors for Gordon Beckham?

[witesoxfan]

Um, so who ARE the possible suitors for Gordon Beckham?

 

Vivica Fox

[clyons]

Vivica Fox

 

Bad deal. He's up to .296.

[Dick Allen]

Trolling is making up ridiculous arguments and making people "prove" you wrong, and once they do, changing to another ridiculous argument and repeating the process. Or just dragging in non sequiturs from other threads.

And the ridiculous argument here is Addison Reed is a middle reliever. which he pointed out yesterday. , and Addison Reed would be the 5th best pitcher in the White Sox bullpen.

[caulfield12]

Petricka, Putnam, and Webb all have ERAs lower than him (on the active roster). That puts him 4th best.

Belisario, Putnam, Downs, Petricka, and Webb all have lower FIPs than him. That puts him 6th best.

Putnam, Belisario, and Petricka all have WHIPs lower than him. That puts him 4th best.

 

His xFIP is nice, but it's aided by a high K rate and low BB rate. He has an incredibly low GB rate right now and, while his HR/FB is high right now, he's had problems with homers in the past. Something's going to give.

 

Also, believing that a guy with good stuff who was a great pitcher for a fairly large period of time was going to be a good pitcher is not trolling. It's believing in something. I've already owned up to that.

 

BTW, how's Ubaldo doing? You wanted to give him $50 million. That would have looked a lot better going to Saltalamacchia, wouldn't it? And I "only" wanted him for $40 million. That would have been a hell of a lot better than anything you would have committed the money to which, as I recall, was basically anything Marty wanted.

 

/drops mic

 

How many of those numbers by the bullpen members have been compiled in closing situations?

 

We could take Purcey's numbers from last year and argue he was better than Addison Reed...should we so choose.

 

Belisario's certainly not going to come out on top of any type of statistical comparison going by this past week. Or, 14/16 saves versus Belisario's two blown saves already.

 

Wait...blown saves don't matter for middle relievers, right? Well, then comparing statistics of middle relievers has little or next to nothing to do with the statistics of those getting the 25th, 26th and 27th outs in a game.

 

 

Besides, if that was actually the case...your argument was true, then Rick Hahn would be on the phone right now trading for three more position player versions of Matt Davidson and welcoming Putnam/Belisario/Petricka not to let the door him them on the butt on the way out.

Edited May 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

And the ridiculous argument here is Addison Reed is a middle reliever. which he pointed out yesterday. , and Addison Reed would be the 5th best pitcher in the White Sox bullpen.

 

Take a stance for once in your life instead of arguing to argue. You might feel better about yourself.

[Dick Allen]

Petricka, Putnam, and Webb all have ERAs lower than him (on the active roster). That puts him 4th best.

Belisario, Putnam, Downs, Petricka, and Webb all have lower FIPs than him. That puts him 6th best.

Putnam, Belisario, and Petricka all have WHIPs lower than him. That puts him 4th best.

 

His xFIP is nice, but it's aided by a high K rate and low BB rate. He has an incredibly low GB rate right now and, while his HR/FB is high right now, he's had problems with homers in the past. Something's going to give.

 

Also, believing that a guy with good stuff who was a great pitcher for a fairly large period of time was going to be a good pitcher is not trolling. It's believing in something. I've already owned up to that.

 

BTW, how's Ubaldo doing? You wanted to give him $50 million. That would have looked a lot better going to Saltalamacchia, wouldn't it? And I "only" wanted him for $40 million. That would have been a hell of a lot better than anything you would have committed the money to which, as I recall, was basically anything Marty wanted.

 

/drops mic

Ubaldo is doing a lot better than Felipe Paulino. And Salty is fading fast. Oh to have him for double what anyone else would pay him. So reliever ERA means a lot and FIP means a lot. xFIP, a number you pointed out to show us how great Paulino would be I guess doesn't matter.

 

And Paulino was a great pitcher for a fairly large period of time? LMAO, you have officially lost your mind.

 

 

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Take a stance for once in your life instead of arguing to argue. You might feel better about yourself.

I take a stance. You just don't like my stance so you make crap up like this saying I don't take one.

 

It is funny the post after you criticize my "stances", you say I don't take a stance.

[Dick Allen]

How many of those numbers by the bullpen members have been compiled in closing situations?

 

We could take Purcey's numbers from last year and argue he was better than Addison Reed...should we so choose.

 

Belisario's certainly not going to come out on top of any type of statistical comparison going by this past week. Or, 14/16 saves versus Belisario's two blown saves already.

 

Wait...blown saves don't matter for middle relievers, right? Well, then comparing statistics of middle relievers has little or next to nothing to do with the statistics of those getting the 25th, 26th and 27th outs in a game.

 

 

Besides, if that was actually the case...your argument was true, then Rick Hahn would be on the phone right now trading for three more position player versions of Matt Davidson and welcoming Putnam/Belisario/Petricka not to let the door him them on the butt on the way out.

OMG Caulfield and I agree.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Paulino was a "decent" pitcher on two bad Royals teams in 2011 and 2012.

 

That's it.

 

He had high strikeout totals and a good arm.

 

His BAA for 2011-2013 is .267, with opposing hitters putting up a 742 OPS. Included in that is a 3.28 ERA in 13 starts at Kauffman Stadium, which helped make his overall stats look a bit better than they really are/were.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I went on a Field Trip yesterday with 7th graders to Springfield. They bickered like this the whole ride back. I thought I had escaped...then I read this thread. Good grief.

[caulfield12]

OMG Caulfield and I agree.

 

 

Miracles do exist.

 

However, I won't join the Indians' broadcasting crew in touting Gordon Beckham as one of the most underrated "double player turners" in the majors today, haha. Hawk can do that all by himself.

[witesoxfan]

Ubaldo is doing a lot better than Felipe Paulino. And Salty is fading fast. Oh to have him for double what anyone else would pay him. So reliever ERA means a lot and FIP means a lot. xFIP, a number you pointed out to show us how great Paulino would be I guess doesn't matter.

 

And Paulino was a great pitcher for a fairly large period of time? LMAO, you have officially lost your mind.

 

Ubaldo also costs 33.3x what Paulino cost PLUS a 2nd round pick. No big deal. Salty's faded, but he'd have been a hell of a lot more valuable at $40 million and no 2nd round pick than Ubaldo right now.

 

Paulino was also good between 2011 and 2012. Look it up yourself.

 

I also have no problem with xFIP, but showed that he has two peripherals that are working against each other - his K/BB is in his favor while a 29% GB rate is an absolutely terrible thing, especially with non-overpowering stuff. One of those is going to give eventually, and if it's his K/BB, his xFIP is going to rise very quickly and he's going to start giving up a lot of runs.

 

[caulfield12]

I went on a Field Trip yesterday with 7th graders to Springfield. They bickered like this the whole ride back. I thought I had escaped...then I read this thread. Good grief.

 

 

Guess we need some more of the spirit of Abe Lincoln at Soxtalk then.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Ubaldo also costs 33.3x what Paulino cost PLUS a 2nd round pick. No big deal. Salty's faded, but he'd have been a hell of a lot more valuable at $40 million and no 2nd round pick than Ubaldo right now.

 

Paulino was also good between 2011 and 2012. Look it up yourself.

 

I also have no problem with xFIP, but showed that he has two peripherals that are working against each other - his K/BB is in his favor while a 29% GB rate is an absolutely terrible thing, especially with non-overpowering stuff. One of those is going to give eventually, and if it's his K/BB, his xFIP is going to rise very quickly and he's going to start giving up a lot of runs.

 

 

And Salty would cost us 22X what we're paying Tyler Flowers this season.

779 vs. 760 OPS, pretty much a wash.

 

The problem is that the $5+ dollars we're saving by NOT signing a catcher for 2014 wasn't invested in a better pitcher for the back end of the rotation, or we might legitimately be in this thing.

 

Going into the season with three major question marks and only Andre Rienzo as the back-up plan hasn't worked out so well. They've survived/improvised...so far, and that's about the best you can say about the situation.

 

Or maybe we can just pool together the money we're spending on DeAza, Konerko, Paulino, Keppinger and Scott Downs. Or simply just the latter three.

Edited May 28, 2014 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Ubaldo also costs 33.3x what Paulino cost PLUS a 2nd round pick. No big deal. Salty's faded, but he'd have been a hell of a lot more valuable at $40 million and no 2nd round pick than Ubaldo right now.

 

Paulino was also good between 2011 and 2012. Look it up yourself.

 

I also have no problem with xFIP, but showed that he has two peripherals that are working against each other - his K/BB is in his favor while a 29% GB rate is an absolutely terrible thing, especially with non-overpowering stuff. One of those is going to give eventually, and if it's his K/BB, his xFIP is going to rise very quickly and he's going to start giving up a lot of runs.

The only place Paulino played where his ERA was below 5.83 was KC, and that was 162 innings and 27 starts over 2 years. How is that being a great pitcher over a fairly large period of time? That was also 2 surgeries ago, and his short stint in the minors last year look just like his performances this season.

 

I still would take Jimenez as he has had a few good starts. And no one seems to mention Santana. I guess he is doing too well. (Although I preferred Jimenez myself, and noted it here)

[LittleHurt05]

The only place Paulino played where his ERA was below 5.83 was KC, and that was 162 innings and 27 starts over 2 years. How is that being a great pitcher over a fairly large period of time? That was also 2 surgeries ago, and his short stint in the minors last year look just like his performances this season.

 

I still would take Jimenez as he has had a few good starts. And no one seems to mention Santana. I guess he is doing too well. (Although I preferred Jimenez myself, and noted it here)

 

A 4.06 ERA in the National League? For $14.1 million? No thanks.

 

I do agree with you on Paulino though, I couldn't believe how much people were hyping him up. I almost started believe it too. Almost.

[caulfield12]

The only place Paulino played where his ERA was below 5.83 was KC, and that was 162 innings and 27 starts over 2 years. How is that being a great pitcher over a fairly large period of time? That was also 2 surgeries ago, and his short stint in the minors last year look just like his performances this season.

 

I still would take Jimenez as he has had a few good starts. And no one seems to mention Santana. I guess he is doing too well. (Although I preferred Jimenez myself, and noted it here)

 

 

Santana has been terrible recently.

 

Overall, just over a 4 ERA and decent WHIP, 1.25 or 1.26, something like that.

 

You'd take him over Jake Peavy, that's for sure.

 

But then there's the 2nd round pick argument. However, if it's Rodon, we might not be able to afford our 2nd round pick anyway.