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Possible Suitors for Gordon Beckham


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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 29, 2014 -> 08:37 AM)
Johnson could be, but if that was the Sox line of thinking you would think that they would have started the process of working him in the OF. If you move Semien to short, that adds Carlos Sanchez into the mix as being an extra asset.

 

Johnson didn't even know about this POSSIBLE plan, until a reporter told him that Hahn had hinted at it...but only when the organization felt he was completely comfortable offensively (which kind of makes no sense, because once someone's comfortable in ONE position, why would you want to run the risk of moving them somewhere else unless it would be a clear upgrade?)

 

Is Johnson/Eaton/Garcia (or Eaton/Johnson/Garcia) a more productive outfield than Viciedo/Eaton/Garcia? Where's the power going to come from, besides Abreu and possibly Viciedo at DH?

 

Can Viciedo even be effective as a DH/1B? Or Davidson, for that matter.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:18 AM)
I wonder if the Sox prefer Johnson or Semien, they both are both in play for the same roster spot down the road. To me, it seems they prefer Semien, otherwise he would be in AAA being showcased for a trade as I think they are doing with Micah at this point. They have three MLB or near MLB ready 2B and really only room for one, so I think there will be a couple of deals involving Beckham and Johnson before opening day 2015.

 

Yes, EJ has a much better shot at rejoining the rotation, but I was never as high on him as some around here, but I think he can develop into a capable back end of the rotation starter.

 

I feel like the key is to not panic and push too many chips in to compete at a fringe level this season. Keep building up the system with astute pickups like Rondon, Montas, Danish, Michalzewski, and such, and build the depth of the organization to a point where it is able to produce ML talent on an annual basis and allow the team to trade off veteran assets to fill gaps like bringing in Avisail last season.

They arent showcasing anyone, they are trying to develop players the best they can, especially ones they think could be special or heavy contributors. Micah needs to be in AAA

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I don't think Viciedo is close to his peak yet.

 

I also wouldn't make moves that hinder long term development for the sake of possibly competing for a WC this year. This staff is not good enough to advance in the playoffs. I want to compete for World Series, not wild cards.

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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:25 AM)
I don't think Viciedo is close to his peak yet.

 

I also wouldn't make moves that hinder long term development for the sake of possibly competing for a WC this year. This staff is not good enough to advance in the playoffs. I want to compete for World Series, not wild cards.

 

Unless there's another 2009 version of Jake Peavy out there, or 2004 Jose Contreras...a seemingly bad contract that only requires a little bit of talent in return and not a megadeal like the Freddie Garcia one for Reed/Olivo/Morse.

 

Another quality starter to go along with the Sale and Quintana, all bets are off in a playoff series which also involves Abreu's healthy bat.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:25 AM)
I don't think Viciedo is close to his peak yet.

 

I also wouldn't make moves that hinder long term development for the sake of possibly competing for a WC this year. This staff is not good enough to advance in the playoffs. I want to compete for World Series, not wild cards.

 

I think that goes for everyone, but you gotta start somewhere solid after the travesty that was 2013

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Any talk of a long-term deal for Gordon Beckham is at least two months too early...and there's just no compelling reason to do it, other than to give him more confidence about his future with the organization.

 

Do we need yet another Teahen/Keppinger situation? For whatever reason, having the competition behind seems to be pushing him to elevate his game to another level (for now).

 

If there weren't 3 prospects right behind him that could all play 2B, then it would be more of a consideration, but that's not the case.

 

 

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:29 AM)
Unless there's another 2009 version of Jake Peavy out there, or 2004 Jose Contreras...a seemingly bad contract that only requires a little bit of talent in return and not a megadeal like the Freddie Garcia one for Reed/Olivo/Morse.

 

Another quality starter to go along with the Sale and Quintana, all bets are off in a playoff series which also involves Abreu's healthy bat.

 

You need a lot more than 3 starters. Our pen sucks. I wouldn't count on a single pitcher in a playoff situation.

 

We're still 2-3 years away. Trade Beckham. Trade Ramirez.

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QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:31 AM)
Lock Beckham down for 4/$24M and let him be the face of the franchise.

I'd do that if he would but I can't see why he would. He'll make $6M in arb and if we non-tender him he'll probably get like $15M guaranteed at least even if he's just halfway decent. He's too close to FA to take something like that IMO. And that's probably why we should deal him if we like Semien and everything, because how comfortable would you be giving him $8M+ per year? Because if he keeps this up (finally) that's going to happen, and then you'll have to ask yourself, what does this guy look like 2 years from now?

 

Ah, the pitfalls of having Greg Walker as a hitting coach. Sigh. Had we brought in Steverson a couple years ago we'd all have more memorabilia with World Series Champions decals on them & we'd at least know who the real Beckham is by now.

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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:43 AM)
You need a lot more than 3 starters. Our pen sucks. I wouldn't count on a single pitcher in a playoff situation.

 

We're still 2-3 years away. Trade Beckham. Trade Ramirez.

 

 

Coming into 2005, our best reliever was Takatsu (other than Marte), and he lasted what, 2 months?

 

Jenks wasn't even on the radar, and Hermanson was a flier because of his injury problems.

 

Politte, Cotts and Vizcaino?

 

 

For the last six weeks, until Lindstrom went down, Petricka/Putnam/Belisario/Webb were all pitching very well or great in the cases of the first three guys.

 

Now, they're out of their natural roles and starting to struggle again.

 

You get a reliable guy at the back of that pen and everything falls into place. You don't need to reinvent the wheel and sign Dotel/Linebrink to huge veteran contracts to solidify things. In fact, the only really bad signing (other than Paulino) has been a veteran LHP in Downs who has a mid to low 2's ERA for the last seven years, but looks cooked now.

 

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 08:02 AM)
This team won't contend with this pitching staff.

 

We could do a money absorption deal that doesnt cost us prospects. After all, we were willing to shell out for Tanaka.

 

Why not another Liriano type deal that doesnt harm the farm

 

Also Sale/Quintana/Noesi is just fine for like 1, 3 and 5...what we lack is mid-rotation dependability and that isn't impossible to get if you are willing to spend midyear.

 

As far as the pen, I thin what we're veering towards, before more overhaul there.....is increased roles for Putnam/Petricka. The whole gig there is just finding who's your Politte (unexpected fleeting success) and separating them from your Vizcainos through the course of the year, and adjusting the roles by midyear if possible.

Edited by Jose Paniagua
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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:52 AM)
Coming into 2005, our best reliever was Takatsu (other than Marte), and he lasted what, 2 months?

 

Jenks wasn't even on the radar, and Hermanson was a flier because of his injury problems.

 

Politte, Cotts and Vizcaino?

 

 

For the last six weeks, until Lindstrom went down, Petricka/Putnam/Belisario/Webb were all pitching very well or great in the cases of the first three guys.

 

Now, they're out of their natural roles and starting to struggle again.

 

You get a reliable guy at the back of that pen and everything falls into place. You don't need to reinvent the wheel and sign Dotel/Linebrink to huge veteran contracts to solidify things. In fact, the only really bad signing (other than Paulino) has been a veteran LHP in Downs who has a mid to low 2's ERA for the last seven years, but looks cooked now.

 

So what? You build your team expecting to catch lightning in a bottle? There are outliers and exceptions, but it's retarded to build your team expecting that to happen. I loathe when people use outliers as examples. It's such poor logic? Is there another Jenks? Montas doesn't have 4 elite pitches.

 

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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:06 AM)
So what? You build your team expecting to catch lightning in a bottle? There are outliers and exceptions, but it's retarded to build your team expecting that to happen. I loathe when people use outliers as examples. It's such poor logic? Is there another Jenks? Montas doesn't have 4 elite pitches.

What is a bullpen, and how do you fill with guys who are always very good and also who cannot immediately become very bad?

 

What you do is build as much depth as possible and see what happens. When holes open you try to fill them as best you can.

 

Guerra could be a nice pickup. If Carroll can handle the long man role that's huge for us. Putnam has been nails. Petricka, very good again. 4 guys who in total took nothing to acquire aside from Petricka's drat pick. This sort of thing happens all the time.

 

Also there is going to be another dynamite closer out there somewhere. Sergio Santos cost nothing either, and man did he have great stuff for us. All we had to do is convert him & put him on the mound. Every organization has live arms who won't make it for them and we'll find one. And re: Jenks yes he had terrific stuff, a great 4 seamer, 2-seamer, curve, slider, and his change for a while was his best pitch. But he certainly didn't have elite stamina, character issues, wasn't keeping himself in shape, etc. So he also had a lot of flaws and red flags, probably a lot like the next terrific closer we'll inevitably pick up for nothing.

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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:18 AM)
What is a bullpen, and how do you fill with guys who are always very good and also who cannot immediately become very bad?

 

What you do is build as much depth as possible and see what happens. When holes open you try to fill them as best you can.

 

Guerra could be a nice pickup. If Carroll can handle the long man role that's huge for us. Putnam has been nails. Petricka, very good again. 4 guys who in total took nothing to acquire aside from Petricka's drat pick. This sort of thing happens all the time.

 

Also there is going to be another dynamite closer out there somewhere. Sergio Santos cost nothing either, and man did he have great stuff for us. All we had to do is convert him & put him on the mound. Every organization has live arms who won't make it for them and we'll find one. And re: Jenks yes he had terrific stuff, a great 4 seamer, 2-seamer, curve, slider, and his change for a while was his best pitch. But he certainly didn't have elite stamina, character issues, wasn't keeping himself in shape, etc. So he also had a lot of flaws and red flags, probably a lot like the next terrific closer we'll inevitably pick up for nothing.

 

 

Or for a 3rd round draft pick.

 

Williams got suckered into this line of thinking with big money deals for Dotel and Linebrink after 2007.

 

So what happens...those usually dependable guys, like a Scott Downs or Scott Shields, suddenly lose it and then you're stuck with ugly bullpen contracts.

 

Just follow the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen construction model the last decade, or the A's (until they foolishly went for Johnson, falling into that same "must have closer" mode which Beane has always run away from, trading closers at peak value and replacing them with cheaper, more promising youngsters). Or even the Royals (but ignore the rest of their issues, like hitting and starting pitching).

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:06 AM)
So what? You build your team expecting to catch lightning in a bottle? There are outliers and exceptions, but it's retarded to build your team expecting that to happen. I loathe when people use outliers as examples. It's such poor logic? Is there another Jenks? Montas doesn't have 4 elite pitches.

 

I agree with your logic regarding outliers, but I think the reality is that there are very few relievers that can be relied on to produce stable results for more than a couple years. To some degree, the art of building a bullpen is lightning in a bottle every year.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:26 AM)
I agree with your logic regarding outliers, but I think the reality is that there are very few relievers that can be relied on to produce stable results for more than a couple years. To some degree, the art of building a bullpen is lightning in a bottle every year.

I agree with that, but is there a single pitcher in the pen with the kind of stuff that dominates playoff games? Bella is about it.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:23 AM)
Or for a 3rd round draft pick.

 

Williams got suckered into this line of thinking with big money deals for Dotel and Linebrink after 2007.

 

So what happens...those usually dependable guys, like a Scott Downs or Scott Shields, suddenly lose it and then you're stuck with ugly bullpen contracts.

 

Just follow the Tampa Bay Rays bullpen construction model the last decade, or the A's (until they foolishly went for Johnson, falling into that same "must have closer" mode which Beane has always run away from, trading closers at peak value and replacing them with cheaper, more promising youngsters). Or even the Royals (but ignore the rest of their issues, like hitting and starting pitching).

How many world series have those models won? I don't want to model anything after the A's. The Rays are a nice story but they get pounced in the playoffs for a reason.

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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:41 AM)
I agree with that, but is there a single pitcher in the pen with the kind of stuff that dominates playoff games? Bella is about it.

 

 

Let's just GET to a playoff game first.

 

Petricka and Webb both have potentially dominating stuff, particularly Webb.

 

Putnam, like Tanaka, has a ton of movement on his pitches and doesn't have to throw harder than 87-90 MPH to be effective. In fact, part of his effectiveness comes from not looking like 85% of the middle relievers out there today who are all throwing mid 90's.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:45 AM)
Let's just GET to a playoff game first.

 

Petricka and Webb both have potentially dominating stuff, particularly Webb.

 

Putnam, like Tanaka, has a ton of movement on his pitches and doesn't have to throw harder than 87-90 MPH to be effective. In fact, part of his effectiveness comes from not looking like 85% of the middle relievers out there today who are all throwing mid 90's.

I'm not into making moves that sacrifice the future to get swept in the first round.

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