J.B. Wendelken Scouting report

[Ozzie Ball]

J.B. Wendelken, RHP, Chicago White Sox (Profile)

Level: High-A Age: 21 Top-15: N/A Top-100: N/A

Line: 59.1 IP, 64 H, 30 R, 50/9 K/BB, 3.94 ERA, 3.51 FIP

 

Summary

This converted reliever has shown some positives and negatives in his first year as a professional starter.

 

Notes

J.B. Wendelken was acquired by the White Sox from the Red Sox as part of the Jake Peavy deal. I’ve already written about the other two prospects that went from Boston to Chicago in that move–flamethrower Francellis Montas and shortstop extroardinaire Cleuluis Rondon–this year, and Wendelken…well, doesn’t quite carry the excitement of Montas’ mid-90s gas and above-average slider or Rondon’s acrobatic defense, but he does show enough to reveal why White Sox brass would have wanted him in the first place.

 

A nondescript thirteenth-round pick out of junior college in 2012, Wendelken worked as a reliever in his first two professional seasons, dominating the New York-Penn League in 2012 and turning in a solid 2013 mostly at the Low-A level. The White Sox liked him enough to move him to starting this year with High-A Winston-Salem, and as his numbers show, he’s taken to it reasonably well, cutting his walk rate to 3.6% while maintaining a 20% strikeout rate. At 21 and in High-A, he’s certainly not too old to be a prospect, too.

 

As the title of this article implies, Wendelken’s big weapon right now is a monstrous changeup that features zone-crossing fade. And when I say zone-crossing, I mean zone-crossing:

 

The bigtime action on the pitch is paired with excellent velocity separation–early in my viewing, Wendelken’s fastball was in the low 90s while the change was in the upper 70s. He features it heavily to both lefties and righties and isn’t afraid to double or triple up on it if a batter’s unable to pick the pitch up. As you can see, it induces a ton of awkward swings.

 

So Wendelken has the great changeup, he can touch 94 mph, and he throws strikes. That’s not a bad mix of positives for a 21-year-old High-A starter, but he’ll need refinement on all other fronts to succeed as a major leaguer later on. The first question is his breaking pitch. I saw Wendelken as a reliever before the trade last year, and he flashed a big curveball:

 

That pitch was all but gone in my viewing this year, though. He threw one at 76 late in the outing that was a “hey, there it is!” moment (and then found out what happens when you go through the batting order a third time with a changeup-heavy approach)…

 

…but all his other breaking pitches were rolling slurves in the 78-82 mph range that generally weren’t much more than chase offerings. I’m not sure if they’re just overthrown curveballs or a different pitch–a slider–altogether, but whatever the case may be, he’s likely best served with the big curve going forward if he can get reasonably consistent shape.

 

A second issue is stamina. Wendelken came out throwing 92-94 mph in the first inning, but by the fifth and sixth, he was topping out at 88. His heater doesn’t have much life, so he’ll get crushed if it’s coming in at 85-88 for extended periods of time–particularly, as mentioned above, when hitters have already seen and adjusted to the changeup. To some extent, he can be excused due to his recent conversion to starting, but it bears watching if he can stay in the 90s throughout his outings.

 

While Wendelken is young and his issues might appear reasonably fixable, it should be emphasized that he’s not particularly projectable. If the stamina isn’t showing up soon, it may never, and that alone would likely preclude Wendelken from starting. While it might be tempting to dream on him as the next Marco Estrada, he’s more likely to fit into a Brad Boxberger/Tyler Clippard role as a reliever who can air it out around 92 mph and throw a nasty changeup 35% of the time. Not all that glamorous, but you don’t really expect glamor from trade throw-ins, so it’s actually a pretty nice outcome if it works out.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-wa...angeup-artists/

 

Some positives/negatives. The report on his changeup alone boosts his prospect status in my mind. I would still say he's not overly exciting to me, but he is at least a prospect worth monitoring.

[GGajewski18]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-wa...angeup-artists/

 

Some positives/negatives. The report on his changeup alone boosts his prospect status in my mind. I would still say he's not overly exciting to me, but he is at least a prospect worth monitoring.

 

Thanks for the article. I'm a huge fan of Wendelken. He's pitched well, but will probably be a reliever.

[NorthSideSox72]

The velocity fade would be expected since he's stretching out to starting innings now. As long as he keeps being fairly successful, likely he's starting next year too, then we'll really see if stamina is an issue long-term (and thus make him a reliever). But what Stoltz didn't acknowledge here is, even if they know this guy is a reliever, the Sox like using them as a starter anyway. Hard to tell if that is the case here, likely is.

 

[southsider2k5]

The velocity fade would be expected since he's stretching out to starting innings now. As long as he keeps being fairly successful, likely he's starting next year too, then we'll really see if stamina is an issue long-term (and thus make him a reliever). But what Stoltz didn't acknowledge here is, even if they know this guy is a reliever, the Sox like using them as a starter anyway. Hard to tell if that is the case here, likely is.

 

Sounds like his negatives can all be traced back to stamina related issues to me.