Paulino removed from Rehab assignment

[Marty34]

If Jimenez would have been a bad signing, who do they target that is better in this year's free-agent market with the big spenders looking for pitching too?

Edited May 29, 2014 by Marty34

[witesoxfan]

If Jimenez would have been a bad signing, who do they target that is better in this year's free-agent market with the big spenders looking for pitching too?

 

A lot of these guys will have options picked up, have retired, or are simply bad, but there are plenty of interesting names on the list that there will be options.

 

Brett Anderson *

Josh Beckett

Chad Billingsley *

Joe Blanton *

A.J. Burnett *

Chris Capuano

Bruce Chen *

Wei-Yin Chen *

Kevin Correia

Johnny Cueto *

Jorge De La Rosa

Ryan Dempster

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Yovani Gallardo *

Jason Hammel

J.A. Happ *

Aaron Harang

Dan Haren *

Roberto Hernandez

Luke Hochevar

Hisashi Iwakuma

Josh Johnson

Kyle Kendrick

Hiroki Kuroda

John Lannan

Colby Lewis

Jon Lester

Paul Maholm

Justin Masterson

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon Morrow *

Jeff Niemann

Ross Ohlendorf

Felipe Paulino *

Jake Peavy

Wandy Rodriguez

Max Scherzer

James Shields

Carlos Villanueva

Ryan Vogelsong

Edinson Volquez

Jerome Williams

[T R U]

FWIW, hindsight is everything. I mention it a lot, but here's the thread

 

Sox sign Felipe Paulino

 

I cant believe how many people said they liked him and he has been good. Hes never been good. Whats ludicrous is using the term "Good" while describing Paulinos career. The term has no business there.

[caulfield12]

A lot of these guys will have options picked up, have retired, or are simply bad, but there are plenty of interesting names on the list that there will be options.

 

Brett Anderson *

Josh Beckett

Chad Billingsley *

Joe Blanton *

A.J. Burnett *

Chris Capuano

Bruce Chen *

Wei-Yin Chen *

Kevin Correia

Johnny Cueto *

Jorge De La Rosa

Ryan Dempster

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Yovani Gallardo *

Jason Hammel

J.A. Happ *

Aaron Harang

Dan Haren *

Roberto Hernandez

Luke Hochevar

Hisashi Iwakuma

Josh Johnson

Kyle Kendrick

Hiroki Kuroda

John Lannan

Colby Lewis

Jon Lester

Paul Maholm

Justin Masterson

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon Morrow *

Jeff Niemann

Ross Ohlendorf

Felipe Paulino *

Jake Peavy

Wandy Rodriguez

Max Scherzer

James Shields

Carlos Villanueva

Ryan Vogelsong

Edinson Volquez

Jerome Williams

 

From this list, only Iwakuma (and he's not going anywhere), Shields, Scherzer and Lester would push us into playoff contention just by their signing.

 

Masterson, a lot of the glow is wearing off of now.

 

Vogelsong, maybe...but then going from the NL to the AL, USCF compared to PacBell, etc.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I can't believe people are still advocating giving up that 2nd rounder. Giving away draft picks is not how you sustain success. Again, the Sox wouldn't just lose that 2nd round pick. They'd lose the slot amount for the pick as well. That could be enough to not be able to sign a Rodon that could potentially fall to you. It's just stupid. The Sox won't be in a position to give up a draft pick next year either. It's just stupid and I'm pretty sure it isn't the way that Rick Hahn intends to build this team.

[Marty34]

I can't believe people are still advocating giving up that 2nd rounder. Giving away draft picks is not how you sustain success. Again, the Sox wouldn't just lose that 2nd round pick. They'd lose the slot amount for the pick as well. That could be enough to not be able to sign a Rodon that could potentially fall to you. It's just stupid. The Sox won't be in a position to give up a draft pick next year either. It's just stupid and I'm pretty sure it isn't the way that Rick Hahn intends to build this team.

 

There is no pitching in the minors right now. It would be silly to wait three-to-five years to develop it when it appears the core position players are largely in place.

 

[Marty34]

A lot of these guys will have options picked up, have retired, or are simply bad, but there are plenty of interesting names on the list that there will be options.

 

Brett Anderson *

Josh Beckett

Chad Billingsley *

Joe Blanton *

A.J. Burnett *

Chris Capuano

Bruce Chen *

Wei-Yin Chen *

Kevin Correia

Johnny Cueto *

Jorge De La Rosa

Ryan Dempster

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Yovani Gallardo *

Jason Hammel

J.A. Happ *

Aaron Harang

Dan Haren *

Roberto Hernandez

Luke Hochevar

Hisashi Iwakuma

Josh Johnson

Kyle Kendrick

Hiroki Kuroda

John Lannan

Colby Lewis

Jon Lester

Paul Maholm

Justin Masterson

Brandon McCarthy

Brandon Morrow *

Jeff Niemann

Ross Ohlendorf

Felipe Paulino *

Jake Peavy

Wandy Rodriguez

Max Scherzer

James Shields

Carlos Villanueva

Ryan Vogelsong

Edinson Volquez

Jerome Williams

 

Jimenez at 3y/$39M is a more than reasonable risk looking at these pitchers.

[Eminor3rd]

Jimenez at 3y/$39M is a more than reasonable risk looking at these pitchers.

 

Well, it was 4y/$50m and he hasn't pitched any better than Andre Rienzo. I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m.

[witesoxfan]

Jimenez at 3y/$39M is a more than reasonable risk looking at these pitchers.

I disagree with what you say but will defend to the death your right to say it.

[Bruce_Blixton]

I wouldn't mind taking a run at Gallardo if the Brewers don't pick up his option for $13 million, maybe sign McCarthy if he can be had for cheap.

[Marty34]

Well, it was 4y/$50m and he hasn't pitched any better than Andre Rienzo. I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m.

 

Name those pitchers.

[Dick Allen]

Well, it was 4y/$50m and he hasn't pitched any better than Andre Rienzo. I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m.

Using your logic, wouldn't that mean Gordon Beckham is as good as Dustin Pedroia?

 

Rienzo FIP 4.85 xFIP 4.44 WAR 0.1

Jimenez FIP 4.22 xFIP 3.98 WAR 0.6.

 

Yeah that's about the same. If you pay $5 million a year for a 1.0 WAR (and there has been chatter it is actually closer to $6 million), despite having a performance that is vomit-inducing, Jimenez is barely below breakeven. But I guess you throw the advanced stats out when they don't help make your point.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

Using your logic, wouldn't that mean Gordon Beckham is as good as Dustin Pedroia?

 

Rienzo FIP 4.85 xFIP 4.44 WAR 0.1

Jimenez FIP 4.22 xFIP 3.98 WAR 0.6.

 

Yeah that's about the same. If you pay $5 million a year for a 1.0 WAR (and there has been chatter it is actually closer to $6 million), despite having a performance that is vomit-inducing, Jimenez is barely below breakeven. But I guess you throw the advanced stats out when they don't help make your point.

 

Lots of errors in your logic here, Dick Allen. Let me help you out.

 

1. WAR is a counting stat. Jimenez's current, barely significant advantage of 0.5 fWAR is marginalized further if you control for innings pitched. And before you argue that Jimenez should get credit for having more innings, note that Jimenez has three additional starts. Rienzo actually has more IP per start. So, on a per start basis, we're talking about a difference in fWAR of roughly 0.3. Remember this the next time you make your bimonthly post about how WAR is BS because it says a guy with 7.0 WAR is definitively better than a guy with 6.7 WAR.

 

2. Once again I'll point out the difference between what I type and what you claim I type: the phrase "he hasn't pitched any better than" is not the same thing as "he is better than." I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia, I wouldn't say "Gordon Beckham is better than Dustin Pedroia."

 

3. There is a major disconnect between your understanding of the $/WAR figures your referencing and the inherent value of an individuals performance in relation to actual wins. The $/WAR figures are descriptive figures about what the free agent market chooses to pay per WAR. This does not apply, at all, to pre-free agency players and therefore cannot be used compare salaries across those player types. This is why we say "needs to do X to live up to his contract" but we DON'T say "his performance is/isn't worth having because he is paid more/less than $5-6m per WAR." This is because the free agent market is NOT the only place one can get WAR. Ubaldo's contract, in a vaccuum, could break even in free agent dollars if he averages about 2.5 fWAR per season (which, btw, he is NOT on pace to reach in this season), but in the context of roster construction, you have to compare that with what you can already receive at a much mroe efficient valuation internally (someone like Rienzo could give you, say 2 fWAR at like $200k per). The only time you'd opt for the higher rate production you'd get from the free agent is if (1) the production simply cannot be matched more efficiently elsewhere, either with a single replacement player or several, and (2) the difference you're getting is enough to make a substantial difference in the outcome of your season (like if Ubaldo was the final piece to push the Sox over the edge.)

 

In summary, given that the marginal difference between the production of Ubaldo and that of Rienzo has been both (1) not statistically significant and (2) not even remotely close to enough to make a difference in the White Sox season, I would conclude that, for all practical purposes, the White Sox would not be any better off with Ubaldo and would have a bad contract, too.

 

I would liken it to choosing between a hamburger for $2 and a hamburger with fries for $75. Neither will help you reach your goal weight, but at least one only cost you $2.

[Dick Allen]

Lots of errors in your logic here, Dick Allen. Let me help you out.

 

1. WAR is a counting stat. Jimenez's current, barely significant advantage of 0.5 fWAR is marginalized further if you control for innings pitched. And before you argue that Jimenez should get credit for having more innings, note that Jimenez has three additional starts. Rienzo actually has more IP per start. So, on a per start basis, we're talking about a difference in fWAR of roughly 0.3. Remember this the next time you make your bimonthly post about how WAR is BS because it says a guy with 7.0 WAR is definitively better than a guy with 6.7 WAR.

 

2. Once again I'll point out the difference between what I type and what you claim I type: the phrase "he hasn't pitched any better than" is not the same thing as "he is better than." I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia, I wouldn't say "Gordon Beckham is better than Dustin Pedroia."

 

3. There is a major disconnect between your understanding of the $/WAR figures your referencing and the inherent value of an individuals performance in relation to actual wins. The $/WAR figures are descriptive figures about what the free agent market chooses to pay per WAR. This does not apply, at all, to pre-free agency players and therefore cannot be used compare salaries across those player types. This is why we say "needs to do X to live up to his contract" but we DON'T say "his performance is/isn't worth having because he is paid more/less than $5-6m per WAR." This is because the free agent market is NOT the only place one can get WAR. Ubaldo's contract, in a vaccuum, could break even in free agent dollars if he averages about 2.5 fWAR per season (which, btw, he is NOT on pace to reach in this season), but in the context of roster construction, you have to compare that with what you can already receive at a much mroe efficient valuation internally (someone like Rienzo could give you, say 2 fWAR at like $200k per). The only time you'd opt for the higher rate production you'd get from the free agent is if (1) the production simply cannot be matched more efficiently elsewhere, either with a single replacement player or several, and (2) the difference you're getting is enough to make a substantial difference in the outcome of your season (like if Ubaldo was the final piece to push the Sox over the edge.)

 

In summary, given that the marginal difference between the production of Ubaldo and that of Rienzo has been both (1) not statistically significant and (2) not even remotely close to enough to make a difference in the White Sox season, I would conclude that, for all practical purposes, the White Sox would not be any better off with Ubaldo and would have a bad contract, too.

 

I would liken it to choosing between a hamburger for $2 and a hamburger with fries for $75. Neither will help you reach your goal weight, but at least one only cost you $2.

So would that mean Beckham is better than Pedroia? The problem with your "what I typed" thing is you are basically claiming Jimenez will perform like Rienzo for the duration of his 4 year contract.

 

 

I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

So please tell me how Beckham fares to Pedroia.

 

This post is documented evidence that you don't even read what I write.

[Marty34]

Lots of errors in your logic here, Dick Allen. Let me help you out.

 

1. WAR is a counting stat. Jimenez's current, barely significant advantage of 0.5 fWAR is marginalized further if you control for innings pitched. And before you argue that Jimenez should get credit for having more innings, note that Jimenez has three additional starts. Rienzo actually has more IP per start. So, on a per start basis, we're talking about a difference in fWAR of roughly 0.3. Remember this the next time you make your bimonthly post about how WAR is BS because it says a guy with 7.0 WAR is definitively better than a guy with 6.7 WAR.

 

2. Once again I'll point out the difference between what I type and what you claim I type: the phrase "he hasn't pitched any better than" is not the same thing as "he is better than." I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia, I wouldn't say "Gordon Beckham is better than Dustin Pedroia."

 

3. There is a major disconnect between your understanding of the $/WAR figures your referencing and the inherent value of an individuals performance in relation to actual wins. The $/WAR figures are descriptive figures about what the free agent market chooses to pay per WAR. This does not apply, at all, to pre-free agency players and therefore cannot be used compare salaries across those player types. This is why we say "needs to do X to live up to his contract" but we DON'T say "his performance is/isn't worth having because he is paid more/less than $5-6m per WAR." This is because the free agent market is NOT the only place one can get WAR. Ubaldo's contract, in a vaccuum, could break even in free agent dollars if he averages about 2.5 fWAR per season (which, btw, he is NOT on pace to reach in this season), but in the context of roster construction, you have to compare that with what you can already receive at a much mroe efficient valuation internally (someone like Rienzo could give you, say 2 fWAR at like $200k per). The only time you'd opt for the higher rate production you'd get from the free agent is if (1) the production simply cannot be matched more efficiently elsewhere, either with a single replacement player or several, and (2) the difference you're getting is enough to make a substantial difference in the outcome of your season (like if Ubaldo was the final piece to push the Sox over the edge.)

 

In summary, given that the marginal difference between the production of Ubaldo and that of Rienzo has been both (1) not statistically significant and (2) not even remotely close to enough to make a difference in the White Sox season, I would conclude that, for all practical purposes, the White Sox would not be any better off with Ubaldo and would have a bad contract, too.

 

Your whole thing is that Jimenez's contract is bad. What available pitchers next year are a better gamble than him in that price range?

Edited May 29, 2014 by Marty34

[Eminor3rd]

Your whole thing is that Jimenez's contract is bad. What available pitchers next year are a better gamble than him in that price range?

 

Good question. Going off that list of guys on the last page, I think these guys should be able to put up a 1.8-ish fWAR season in the first year of the deal and should be available for 4/50 or less:

 

Brett Anderson *

Josh Beckett

Chad Billingsley *

A.J. Burnett *

Chris Capuano

Wei-Yin Chen *

Jorge De La Rosa

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Jason Hammel

Dan Haren *

Roberto Hernandez

Hiroki Kuroda

Colby Lewis

Justin Masterson

Brandon McCarthy

Jake Peavy

Ryan Vogelsong

Jerome Williams

 

No idea what Masterson will get. I think it'll be about what Ubaldo got.

[cabiness42]

Your whole thing is that Jimenez's contract is bad. What available pitchers next year are a better gamble than him in that price range?

 

I don't think any pitcher who costs a draft pick to sign and is in that price range is a good gamble. You either have to get an elite pitcher and give up the draft pick, or gamble on another guy like Paulino.

 

Aside from losing the draft pick, the problem with Jimenez is that you put all your eggs in his basket for four years. You're stuck paying the money plus stuck with him taking the roster spot. With Paulino, his salary is low enough that you can just cut him loose and move on, giving the opportunity to guys like Carroll or Surkamp, or going out and finding a guy like Noesi.

[harfman77]

Paulino was worth the risk. He has a rare arm but also has severe control issues, if the Sox can find way to get him to quit falling behind in counts and throw strikes early he can be successful in a back of the rotation or long man role. If not he is a DFA candidate that will allow the Sox to put a claim in on someone they want in August.

[Marty34]

Good question. Going off that list of guys on the last page, I think these guys should be able to put up a 1.8-ish fWAR season in the first year of the deal and should be available for 4/50 or less:

 

Brett Anderson *

Josh Beckett

Chad Billingsley *

A.J. Burnett *

Chris Capuano

Wei-Yin Chen *

Jorge De La Rosa

Scott Feldman

Gavin Floyd

Jason Hammel

Dan Haren *

Roberto Hernandez

Hiroki Kuroda

Colby Lewis

Justin Masterson

Brandon McCarthy

Jake Peavy

Ryan Vogelsong

Jerome Williams

 

No idea what Masterson will get. I think it'll be about what Ubaldo got.

 

That's a bad list and doesn't have the upside that Jimenez has.

 

[Dick Allen]

This post is documented evidence that you don't even read what I write.

I did read it, but when someone types this:

 

I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia

 

you have to admit, it's a little unclear and doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

Well, it was 4y/$50m and he hasn't pitched any better than Andre Rienzo. I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m.

 

I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia, I wouldn't say "Gordon Beckham is better than Dustin Pedroia."

 

These are your 2 comments. If you are being consistent, if Ubaldo Jimenez at this point can only be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo, wouldn't you have to say Gordon Beckham now should be expected to be better Dustin Pedroia?

 

You can say he hasn't pitched better than Rienzo, I don't agree, but I can understand that, but you did lock his performance into Rienzo-like forever with the second part of your comment based on 10 starts.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

I did read it, but when someone types this:

 

I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia

 

you have to admit, it's a little unclear and doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

Well, it was 4y/$50m and he hasn't pitched any better than Andre Rienzo. I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m.

 

I would agree that Dustin Pedroia "hasn't hit any better than" Dustin Pedroia, I wouldn't say "Gordon Beckham is better than Dustin Pedroia."

 

These are your 2 comments. If you are being consistent, if Ubaldo Jimenez at this point can only be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo, wouldn't you have to say Gordon Beckham now should be expected to be better Dustin Pedroia?

 

You can say he hasn't pitched better than Rienzo, I don't agree, but I can understand that, but you did lock his performance into Rienzo-like forever with the second part of your comment based on 10 starts.

 

Ok, I obviously made a typo on Dustin Pedroia, but did you seriously not know what I meant?

[Eminor3rd]

That's a bad list and doesn't have the upside that Jimenez has.

 

Unless he regain 4 mph in FB velocity, I don't see any reason to believe Ubaldo has the upside to be what he once was.

[Dick Allen]

Unless he regain 4 mph in FB velocity, I don't see any reason to believe Ubaldo has the upside to be what he once was.

He is down about 1.5 MPH from last season. Last year his numbers up until this point were far worse than they are this year. He came back pretty strong. Fangraphs said last year he put up a 3.2 WAR and his performance was worth $16.1 million. Even his performance this season they claim is worth $3.5 million.

 

You can think he won't be any better, but to say definitively he will not is what I object to. When the season is over, bury me all you want about me wanting the Sox to sign him. Not now.

 

I am probably Beckham's biggest backer on this board. I don't think for a minute he is better than Pedroia. To take numbers with these small sample sizes, when one or two good starts or bad games switches things around, and come to 4 year conclusions is silly.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Dick Allen

[southsider2k5]

So would that mean Beckham is better than Pedroia? The problem with your "what I typed" thing is you are basically claiming Jimenez will perform like Rienzo for the duration of his 4 year contract.

 

 

I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m.

 

Hopefully you reported this post.