Chris Sale

[southsider2k5]

Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien 38m

 

As it stands right now, Chris Sale is in line to start against Mark Buehrle June 28th in Toronto.

[elrockinMT]

Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien 38m

 

As it stands right now, Chris Sale is in line to start against Mark Buehrle June 28th in Toronto.

 

Classic!

[elrockinMT]

I hate how when it gets brought up about sale being so good and one of the best people say how they expect him to get injured at any moment. Ok , so until that happens , that doesn't mean you have to take away from what he's been doing. Any pitcher can get injured at any time

 

 

Very good post and right on!

[Eminor3rd]

Article by Jeff Sullivan about how increased change-up usage may be increasing odds of Sale staying healthy: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-chris-s...imself-healthy/

 

Certain guys, people just assume are going to get injured. For as little as we actually understand about pitching mechanics and injury risk, there are certain players who look like ticking time bombs. Chris Sale is considered one of those guys, and this is why:

 

saledelivery

 

Basically that simple. Sale is (1) a pitcher who (2) looks like that when he’s pitching. And Sale, sure enough, has had his injury scares. Earlier this very season, he was on the disabled list. But, a few years ago, Sale threw 192 innings. Last year he reached 214, and he still hasn’t had the disaster scenario. Sale’s kept himself healthy enough, and he’s recently made a change to try to keep it that way.

 

Thursday, Sale pitched against the Tigers, picking up a loss despite a winning effort. Three times, Sale had to go through Miguel Cabrera. Previously, when Sale and Cabrera matched up, Sale threw sliders a quarter of the time. But in the first inning, he threw Cabrera six fastballs and a changeup. In the fourth, he threw four fastballs and two changeups. In the sixth, he threw five fastballs. So, out of 18 pitches to maybe the best hitter in baseball, Sale didn’t throw a single slider, as he had often in the past. And to go beyond Cabrera, Sale struck out the side in the third on 13 pitches, and all three strikeouts came on changeups. It’s not a coincidence.

 

This is Chris Sale, developing. Sale has long had a changeup that was, at the very least, useful. It didn’t show up very often when he worked out of the bullpen. As a starter, for a while, Sale was fastball/slider, and the slider was plenty good enough. But not only do most starters eventually require a reliable third pitch — the slider, at least by reputation, is dangerous. Zack Greinke has talked about protecting his elbow by reducing his slider usage. Chris Sale is following suit. From an article by Dan Hayes:

 

Through four starts this season, Sale has relied on the changeup much more than he ever has. Part of it is longevity and keeping his arm in shape instead of relying on the slider.

 

For Sale, there are a few goals. One, he wants to keep himself healthy and able to pitch. Two, adding a better changeup should allow him to be effective longer within games. And three, Sale indicates that the changeup helps him keep his mechanics consistent. These things always sound good in theory, but Sale’s gone beyond theory, to the point where he’s genuinely executing. He’s dramatically cut down his slider usage. By our data, he’s increased his changeup usage by 12 percentage points, the biggest hike in baseball. According to Brooks, he’s actually second to Henderson Alvarez, but by the same source Alvarez used a changeup often in the past, so at least for Sale this is significant and new.

 

And Sale owns a career-high strikeout rate. He owns a career-low walk rate. Since he came off the disabled list, he’s posted a league-leading K% – BB% of 33%. Sale’s gotten better against both lefties and righties, and for an idea of the confidence he’s developed in his change, consider this 3-and-0 delivery to Cabrera from Thursday:

 

SaleCabreraChange.gif.opt

 

That’s a change that Cabrera wasn’t expecting, because you don’t expect a 3-and-0 change. It was in a good spot, it got weakly fouled off, and Sale came all the way back to whiff Cabrera two pitches later. Sale has simply swapped his preferred secondary pitch between seasons, and if we can’t prove it’s made him better, it at least hasn’t made him worse.

 

For another glimpse at how Sale has kind of phased the slider out, here are his rates of strikeouts for which the slider was responsible:

 

2012: 58% strikeouts on slider

2013: 52%

2014: 22%

 

Sale’s slider is still good. It’s still Chris Sale’s slider. This season it’s been knocked for all of three hits. But Sale hasn’t needed to rely on that pitch, as his changeup has been knocked for just 11 hits despite a large gain in frequency. The one Sale changeup hit for extra bases so far wasn’t even a bad changeup; it was a good changeup thrown to an amazing hitter. Otherwise, the changeup has gotten 20 strikeouts and ten singles. Righties have struck out against the changeup 17 times; they’ve struck out against the slider six times. Last season, those numbers were 34 and 79.

 

There’s another interesting fact — from last year, Sale hasn’t increased his fastball velocity. But his changeup is up a tick and a half, and his slider is up a couple ticks. I can’t explain that, exactly, but I felt like it belonged somewhere in here, and what it might suggest is that Sale has greater strength, and he’s just conserving his fastball heat for when he needs to still be strong later on. That’s just speculation, but clearly, Sale hasn’t just changed his mix; he’s also just throwing better.

 

Finally, I have one more thing to say, concerning Sale and hitters and their disrupted timing. A season ago, when hitters made contact against Sale, they fouled the ball off 47% of the time, hitting the ball fair the remaining 53% of the time. This season, Sale is at 58% fouls, which is the second-highest rate in baseball. That gain of 11 percentage points isn’t only baseball’s biggest; it’s baseball’s biggest by more than four percentage points. And, between 2012-13, this stat yielded an r value of 0.77, suggesting it reflects some ability. Sale might now be more able to induce fouls instead of balls in play, indicating a greater difficulty for hitters to square him up. More fouls can lead to more strikeouts. Fouls, after all, are strikes, and balls hit fair can go for hits. I haven’t studied foul-ball generation enough to issue strong conclusions, but it seems to me this is more a good thing than a bad thing. It’s more evidence that hitting against Chris Sale is a nightmare.

 

Sale, a few years ago, was worth five wins. Sale, last year, was worth five wins. Sale was already outstanding, averaging 0.17 WAR per start. This year he’s at 0.23 WAR per start, after making a change intended to both make himself better and keep himself healthy. Though he has already been sidelined, the White Sox and Sale will take the occasional brief DL stint provided there isn’t anything worse, and Sale believes he can improve his odds by regulating his slider usage. It’s good when a pitcher tries to stay healthier. When a pitcher tries to stay healthier and gets better in the process, that’s basically perfect.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Ken Rosenthal released his picks for the all-star game, if he were to pick every player, starters and reserves.

 

Not only did he leave Alexei off his list, which I didn't get too upset about because Alexei is a borderline guy, IMO, but he left Chris Sale off his list too. One of the guys he DID include was Garrett Richards instead. I argued that this was asinine, and there is no reason the AL would be better served to win the game with Garrett Richards pitching versus Chris Sale. Rosenthal's only reason was because Sale had a DL stint this year. He is only 8 innings short of qualifying for the leaderboards right now, in which his AL ranks would put him 1st in WHIP, 1st in oppAVG, 3rd in ERA, 4th in LD%, 5th in K/BB, 7th in K/9, 8th in BB/9, and top 10 in various other parameters. And yet he doesn't get recognized as one of the top 9 pitchers in the AL this year.

 

But thank god Derek Jeter gets a roster spot.

[Melissa1334]

Ken Rosenthal released his picks for the all-star game, if he were to pick every player, starters and reserves.

 

Not only did he leave Alexei off his list, which I didn't get too upset about because Alexei is a borderline guy, IMO, but he left Chris Sale off his list too. One of the guys he DID include was Garrett Richards instead. I argued that this was asinine, and there is no reason the AL would be better served to win the game with Garrett Richards pitching versus Chris Sale. Rosenthal's only reason was because Sale had a DL stint this year. He is only 8 innings short of qualifying for the leaderboards right now, in which his AL ranks would put him 1st in WHIP, 1st in oppAVG, 3rd in ERA, 4th in LD%, 5th in K/BB, 7th in K/9, 8th in BB/9, and top 10 in various other parameters. And yet he doesn't get recognized as one of the top 9 pitchers in the AL this year.

 

But thank god Derek Jeter gets a roster spot.

yea i was reading about how there is a lot of deserving pitchers and how sale probably wont go because he has 30-40 less innings i think. that would suck since hes clearly a top starter in the league. hopefully he goes

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

yea i was reading about how there is a lot of deserving pitchers and how sale probably wont go because he has 30-40 less innings i think. that would suck since hes clearly a top starter in the league. hopefully he goes

 

That's like saying Abreu hasn't been one of the best hitters in the AL this year because he has 50-70 fewer PAs than a lot of other players. Who the hell cares? He has still mashed enough to make up for it. I get that offensive numbers are additive, and pitching numbers are rates, but I don't think anyone would honestly think Sale's 30 IP less this year are giving him flukey good rates.

[Balta1701]

Worth noting that Chris Sale is 14th in the AL in fWAR among pitchers, tied with Anibal Sanchez (who also has missed some time).

 

He's also slightly ahead of Mark Buehrle, who seems like a likely candidate anyway.

 

I'm hard pressed, looking at this list, to say that he's one of the most deserving 6-7 starters in the AL for the All Star team this year.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Worth noting that Chris Sale is 14th in the AL in fWAR among pitchers, tied with Anibal Sanchez (who also has missed some time).

 

He's also slightly ahead of Mark Buehrle, who seems like a likely candidate anyway.

 

I'm hard pressed, looking at this list, to say that he's one of the most deserving 6-7 starters in the AL for the All Star team this year.

 

Rosenthal selected 9 starters, and my only argument was that he is CLEARLY better than Richards. Richards is just very good at avoiding the longball this year.

[Balta1701]

Rosenthal selected 9 starters, and my only argument was that he is CLEARLY better than Richards. Richards is just very good at avoiding the longball this year.

Chris Sale is a better pitcher than Richards but Richards is, right now, a more deserving all star if you base it solely on his performance this season thanks to the extra 30 innings.

[flavum]

As a starting point for the All Star game, I would begin with any pitcher with 100+ innings and an ERA under 3.00.

 

Felix

Kluber

Tanaka

Buehrle

Lester

Richards

Darvish

Keuchel

Kazmir

 

Sale will probably make it though. People pitch on Sunday's or have injuries.

[greg775]

It's weird to have a starter as good as Sale on a last place team.

It begs the question ... why should Sale pitch this September if we are still way out of the race? Isn't it dumb to pitch him much until the season we can contend? Just asking, but what does the team have to prove sending him out there the last 4-6 weeks if we are buried in the standings? Sox aren't selling tickets this season, so ... explain it to me.

 

 

p.s. I am not stating my position on this matter. Everybody who studies this board knows I am all for winning EVERY game possible. Devil's advocate type topic.

Edited July 3, 2014 by greg775

[Balta1701]

It's weird to have a starter as good as sale on a last place team.

It begs the question ... why should Sale pitch this September if we are still way out of the race? Isn't it dumb to pitch him much until the season we can contend? Just asking, but what does the team have to prove sending him out there the last 4-6 weeks if we are buried in the standings? Sox aren't selling tickets this season, so ... explain it to me.

He already missed a month of this season. Our goal for him should be to get his arm adapted to 200-ish innings. I don't want him dropping to 140 innings because he misses both May and september and then having to jump up to 200+ next year if they put a better team around him and actually do sniff the wild card race.

[flavum]

It's weird to have a starter as good as sale on a last place team.

It begs the question ... why should Sale pitch this September if we are still way out of the race? Isn't it dumb to pitch him much until the season we can contend? Just asking, but what does the team have to prove sending him out there the last 4-6 weeks if we are buried in the standings? Sox aren't selling tickets this season, so ... explain it to me.

 

He's a major league starting pitcher getting paid to make 32-33 starts a season. Unless he's actually injured, make the starts. He could impact the Royals making the wildcard the last weekend of the season. I'd like to see that, and that's what he's here for.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

He could also file a grievance with the PA about being benched for no daggum reason.

[Jose Abreu]

The Bleacher Report list also left Sale off (but included Abreu and Alexei [ESPN predicts Abreu won't make it]), so I was about to write a "Sale should be here" comment. Then I looked at the top three comments, all of which called for Sale's inclusion and talked about how underrated he is. These were non-Sox fans, too.

[Jose Abreu]

LHP Mark Buehrle

RHP Yu Darvish

RHP Felix Hernandez

LHP Scott Kazmir

LHP Jon Lester

LHP David Price

RHP Garrett Richards

RHP Masahiro Tanaka

RHP Dellin Betances

RHP Greg Holland

LHP Sean Doolittle

RHP Fernando Rodney

RHP Koji Uehara

 

How are all of these pitchers more deserving than Sale? I think he'd be a better pick than Lester, Kazmir, Richards, and Price. Maybe Felix, too.

[Balta1701]

How are all of these pitchers more deserving than Sale? I think he'd be a better pick than Lester, Kazmir, Richards, and Price. Maybe Felix, too.

Go look at their numbers this year. There is absolutely no way you can make a case that Sale is more deserving than Felix. Both advanced and regular stats agree on this one, he's been ridiculous. The other guys are earning it too.

[Jose Abreu]

Go look at their numbers this year. There is absolutely no way you can make a case that Sale is more deserving than Felix. Both advanced and regular stats agree on this one, he's been ridiculous. The other guys are earning it too.

I retract the "maybe Felix" part. But Sale's definitely more deserving than Price and Lester. It's pretty close with Kazmir.

Edited July 3, 2014 by Jose Abreu

[Melissa1334]

How are all of these pitchers more deserving than Sale? I think he'd be a better pick than Lester, Kazmir, Richards, and Price. Maybe Felix, too.

I just looked at prices stats and thought his numbers would be a lot better since I always see how he's striking out a ton of guys . He's 7-7 with a 3.50 era, is that all star game worthy? (Just glanced at the stats on espn didn't look into his numbers in depth)

>Nevermind,someone on Tampa bay has to go lol

Edited July 4, 2014 by Melissa1334

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

He could also file a grievance with the PA about being benched for no daggum reason.

 

And the Sox would also lose out on the assumed well-attended Chris Sale starts, especially K-Zone seats.

[Bigsoxhurt35]

The Bleacher Report list also left Sale off (but included Abreu and Alexei [ESPN predicts Abreu won't make it]), so I was about to write a "Sale should be here" comment. Then I looked at the top three comments, all of which called for Sale's inclusion and talked about how underrated he is. These were non-Sox fans, too.

If Abreu didn't make the all star team I won't watch. There's no way he's left off.

 

I can see Sale because he's missed a month.

[Jerksticks]

Wow. Bump!

[TitoMB345]

What. a. stud.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Sans the Trout granny, Sale has a 1.74 ERA this year.....Yes I'm cherry pickin again....Cherries are delicious.