Chris Sale

[Feeky Magee]

If Sale faced pitchers three times a game, faced NL lineups, and pitched in an extreme pitchers park as Kershaw does vs. the cell, the argument would rage. Personally, I believe it is a very close call.

There's plenty of peripherals which are league and park-adjusted, and Kershaw blows Sale and everyone else right out of the water

[ILMOU]

There's plenty of peripherals which are league and park-adjusted, and Kershaw blows Sale and everyone else right out of the water

Not seeing the bolded. Differences are marginal.

 

An intelligent, dominant pitcher in the NL can abuse the #8 hitter and work an inning toward the 9 hole if need be. League adjustments don't fully account for this.

 

And anyway, Sale hasn't necessarily even truly peaked.

[chitownsportsfan]

There's plenty of peripherals which are league and park-adjusted, and Kershaw blows Sale and everyone else right out of the water

 

Eh, it's pretty close. Kershaw is basically slightly better on K%, GB% and K/BB ratio, but you can make an argument that facing the weak NL west and the weaker league in general helps in ways that don't get park / league adjusted.

 

Basically IMO there is a clear tier, with:

 

Kershaw

Felix

Sale

 

----

 

every else

 

the differences in quality between Sale, Kershaw and Felix are almost indistinguishable but gun to my head I'd go: Kershaw, Sale, Felix.

 

Chris Sale is really f***ing good however you slice it and we are lucky to watch him pitch every 5 days or so.

[Jose Abreu]

Eh, it's pretty close. Kershaw is basically slightly better on K%, GB% and K/BB ratio, but you can make an argument that facing the weak NL west and the weaker league in general helps in ways that don't get park / league adjusted.

 

Basically IMO there is a clear tier, with:

 

Kershaw

Felix

Sale

 

----

 

every else

 

the differences in quality between Sale, Kershaw and Felix are almost indistinguishable but gun to my head I'd go: Kershaw, Sale, Felix.

 

Chris Sale is really f***ing good however you slice it and we are lucky to watch him pitch every 5 days or so.

I think Wainwright deserves inclusion in that list

[Eminor3rd]

Kershaw is better, guys. It's okay, Sale doesn't have to be literally the best on the planet to be our hero.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I would LOVE to see what Sale could do with a brilliant catcher behind the plate. I think Flowers is ok, but put a guy back there that really knows the game and hitter tendencies at an extreme level & really that's what I think Sale needs. I think that because of Sale's experience now, if you put AJ behind the plate & Buehrle in the dugout next to him he'd take that next step. He's great but he's great mostly on stuff IMO. I think right now he's in that stage where he's learning to be a great pitcher with great stuff and IMO he probably needs a little extra help. I think Sale is the kind of guy who if he could develop a Maddux/Buehrle type of approach/mentality (and I think that's what he's trying to do) would be capable of putting up an ERA right around or even below 2.00, that's how great his stuff/deception is.

 

Sale is a pretty special player but I still think he has room for improvement left. His absolute ceiling is otherwordly & I agree with the poster who said we're fortunate to be able to watch this guy every 5 days. And again in terms of overall ability, I could actually see myself picking up a baseball card 10 years from now, flipping it over, and looking at a single season of something like 220IP with an ERA of 1.80 or so and a WHIP under 1.00, that's what his absolute ceiling is IMO. He's that dominant.

[chitownsportsfan]

I would LOVE to see what Sale could do with a brilliant catcher behind the plate. I think Flowers is ok, but put a guy back there that really knows the game and hitter tendencies at an extreme level & really that's what I think Sale needs. I think that because of Sale's experience now, if you put AJ behind the plate & Buehrle in the dugout next to him he'd take that next step. He's great but he's great mostly on stuff IMO. I think right now he's in that stage where he's learning to be a great pitcher with great stuff and IMO he probably needs a little extra help. I think Sale is the kind of guy who if he could develop a Maddux/Buehrle type of approach/mentality (and I think that's what he's trying to do) would be capable of putting up an ERA right around or even below 2.00, that's how great his stuff/deception is.

 

Sale is a pretty special player but I still think he has room for improvement left. His absolute ceiling is otherwordly & I agree with the poster who said we're fortunate to be able to watch this guy every 5 days. And again in terms of overall ability, I could actually see myself picking up a baseball card 10 years from now, flipping it over, and looking at a single season of something like 220IP with an ERA of 1.80 or so and a WHIP under 1.00, that's what his absolute ceiling is IMO. He's that dominant.

 

I really don't think there is much he can improve on other than maybe continuing to refine his command and perhaps learning to "pitch backwards" at times. I mean, he's pitching at a historically great level and if he keeps it up for 10 more years he'll be a no doubt HOFer. Kershaw is on pace to be one of the top 5 pitchers of all time, if Sale is only top 20 when he retires I think we'll take that.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If Sale faced pitchers three times a game, faced NL lineups, and pitched in an extreme pitchers park as Kershaw does vs. the cell, the argument would rage. Personally, I believe it is a very close call.

Yeah the difference between AL & NL is really enormous when you get to this most elite level. Sale pitches in the AL in a hitters park, that says a lot right there. Neither pitcher is going to find himself in many situations you call "tight," maybe 1-2 per game mostly in the first couple innings or the last couple innings due to being not quite warmed up enough/not find the offspeed stuff right away or a fatigue or pitches shown (per batter) thing. Taking away the DH is huge in a SP staying fresh a little longer and not having to show a hitter your full arsenal until later. Also with the pitcher up it gives a guy usually 2 hitters (8 and 9) to try and find that breaking ball if it's early in the game and he's not getting it to do what he wants. You can't just flip your breaking pitch over the middle of the plate to your average DH, not at all.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I really don't think there is much he can improve on other than maybe continuing to refine his command and perhaps learning to "pitch backwards" at times. I mean, he's pitching at a historically great level and if he keeps it up for 10 more years he'll be a no doubt HOFer. Kershaw is on pace to be one of the top 5 pitchers of all time, if Sale is only top 20 when he retires I think we'll take that.

Yeah Sale's ceiling is HOF level, that's what I am getting at. He's been burned a few times staying with the same pitch at close speed & that sort of thing. If Sale can show the extreme stuff, extreme deception AND become more of a "mind f***" pitcher like a Maddux or Buehrle then watch the f*** out because those numbers are really going to turn into "video game" numbers. And I think that's exactly the path Sale is looking to take. It's all about getting the hitter, getting the out, getting the win with him. And I love it.

[Feeky Magee]

Not seeing the bolded. Differences are marginal.

 

An intelligent, dominant pitcher in the NL can abuse the #8 hitter and work an inning toward the 9 hole if need be. League adjustments don't fully account for this.

 

And anyway, Sale hasn't necessarily even truly peaked.

Eh, it's pretty close. Kershaw is basically slightly better on K%, GB% and K/BB ratio, but you can make an argument that facing the weak NL west and the weaker league in general helps in ways that don't get park / league adjusted.

 

Basically IMO there is a clear tier, with:

 

Kershaw

Felix

Sale

 

----

 

every else

 

the differences in quality between Sale, Kershaw and Felix are almost indistinguishable but gun to my head I'd go: Kershaw, Sale, Felix.

 

Chris Sale is really f***ing good however you slice it and we are lucky to watch him pitch every 5 days or so.

Kershaw FIP: 1.75

Kershaw xFIP: 1.92

Kershaw SIERA: 1.90

 

Sale FIP: 2.31

Sale xFIP: 2.80

Sale SIERA: 2.58

 

Those are some pretty significant differences when you're talking about that level of excellence. Sale is obviously utterly brilliant, but Kershaw is the king.

[chitownsportsfan]

Yeah Sale's ceiling is HOF level, that's what I am getting at. He's been burned a few times staying with the same pitch at close speed & that sort of thing. If Sale can show the extreme stuff, extreme deception AND become more of a "mind f***" pitcher like a Maddux or Buehrle then watch the f*** out because those numbers are really going to turn into "video game" numbers. And I think that's exactly the path Sale is looking to take. It's all about getting the hitter, getting the out, getting the win with him. And I love it.

 

 

Yea it's amazing how he is now pitching to contact at times to keep his pitch count down. He's learning to throw some ground balls early in the game when there is nobody on, rather than going for the knockout every time. But he still has the strikeout stuff when he needs it.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Kershaw FIP: 1.75

Kershaw xFIP: 1.92

Kershaw SIERA: 1.90

 

Sale FIP: 2.31

Sale xFIP: 2.80

Sale SIERA: 2.58

 

Those are some pretty significant differences when you're talking about that level of excellence. Sale is obviously utterly brilliant, but Kershaw is the king.

There's a point where you have to admit that the differences in on-field situations are so significant that you can't rely on stats to predict & account for them. Sale and Kershaw both are elite & have incredible stuff. The conditions they play under are very different, and trying to use advanced stats to declare a clear winner is like trying to compare a great 90's hitter to a great 70's hitter. There's just no point, both are great, and you really need to see both guys perform under the same set of conditions to declare one substantially better. Now I'm not going to say that Clayton Kershaw couldn't put up better numbers than Sale pitching in the Cell, maybe he could. You'd probably find a lot of people that say he would. But neither of us know for sure and you can't minimize the imapct of the DH and overall park and league factors just through some dumbass formula. It's on the field where these guys play and every single tough out, every tough AB, etc. this all adds up over the course of a game and effects enerything else. The NL is the much easier league to pitch in & the NL West has a lot of large ballparks & s*** hitters too. You just can't compare the two.

 

Again, maybe Kershaw is not only better than Sale but better by a fairly decent margin. We don't know and we probably will never know. But who cares, both are elite. In the end when they are compared the likely factors used to compare the two will be based on health and longevity. The guy who stays healthier and pitches longer will be considered the better pitcher.

[Feeky Magee]

Now I'm not going to say that Clayton Kershaw couldn't put up better numbers than Sale pitching in the Cell, maybe he could. You'd probably find a lot of people that say he would. But neither of us know for sure and you can't minimize the imapct of the DH and overall park and league factors just through some dumbass formula. It's on the field where these guys play and every single tough out, every tough AB, etc. this all adds up over the course of a game and effects enerything else. The NL is the much easier league to pitch in & the NL West has a lot of large ballparks & s*** hitters too. You just can't compare the two.

They're literally park and league-adjusted so you can definitely say all of those things.

[ILMOU]

They're literally park and league-adjusted so you can definitely say all of those things.

League-adjusted yes, but these are still relatively blunt instruments. When you actually dig into the formulation of the metrics, you realize that not every single aspect is being accounted for.

[Eminor3rd]

League-adjusted yes, but these are still relatively blunt instruments. When you actually dig into the formulation of the metrics, you realize that not every single aspect is being accounted for.

 

Which aspects aren't?

[ILMOU]

Which aspects aren't?

I'll get back to you on that. Seriously, I will.

 

Heading off to an actuarial exam now. Enjoy the day.

[bmags]

Would love to see a cardinals fans head explode at the last 20 comments.

[Eminor3rd]

The biggest difference, IMO, between Kershaw and Sale/Hernandez is HR/FB%. Kershaw's is right around his career average, while Sale/Hernandez's are substantially lower than their respective averages. It's likely that both Sale and Hernandez will see some regression here at some point, which would widen the gap between them and Kershaw.

[Eminor3rd]

I'll get back to you on that. Seriously, I will.

 

Heading off to an actuarial exam now. Enjoy the day.

 

Good luck on that!

[Rowand44]

Kershaw's a lefty so shouldn't he be on the Sox anyways?

[Rowand44]

The biggest difference, IMO, between Kershaw and Sale/Hernandez is HR/FB%. Kershaw's is right around his career average, while Sale/Hernandez's are substantially lower than their respective averages. It's likely that both Sale and Hernandez will see some regression here at some point, which would widen the gap between them and Kershaw.

Always the possibility that Sale is just improving at this age. That said, Kershaw to me is the best pitcher in baseball but Sale is right there with him.

[GGajewski18]

Always the possibility that Sale is just improving at this age. That said, Kershaw to me is the best pitcher in baseball but Sale is right there with him.

 

I agree. Kershaw is easily the best pitcher in the MLB right now and has been the last 2 years. That said, Chris Sale is the 2nd best lefty in the game and a top 5 pitcher in the game.

[Jake]

I would admit that FIP is highly contestable but that's not an insignificant difference there

[lasttriptotulsa]

They're literally park and league-adjusted so you can definitely say all of those things.

 

FIP and xFIP are not park and league adjusted. FIP- is and Kershaw just edges Sale out 49 to 58. Now if you want to look at what really happened on the field versus what some stats think should have happened, Sale beats Kershaw in both ERA- (47 to 50) and ERA+ (210 to 201). While I feel Kershaw is slightly better at the moment, it is because Sale has yet to peak. To say that Kershaw blows Sale out of the water is just blatantly false.

[Balta1701]

FIP and xFIP are not park and league adjusted. FIP- is and Kershaw just edges Sale out 49 to 58. Now if you want to look at what really happened on the field versus what some stats think should have happened, Sale beats Kershaw in both ERA- (47 to 50) and ERA+ (210 to 201). While I feel Kershaw is slightly better at the moment, it is because Sale has yet to peak. To say that Kershaw blows Sale out of the water is just blatantly false.

This is stunning to me if true?