Chris Sale

[TheBlackSox8]

Sale Intentional Talk

[southsider2k5]

Sale Intentional Talk

 

Most of it was pretty lame, though the part about Belli's dress style was pretty funny.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Most of it was pretty lame, though the part about Belli's dress style was pretty funny.

 

Yeah, that was a terrible interview. And I am like 95% sure that was not John Danks catching those pitches from Joakim Noah. Honestly, it looked like Lance Broadway, but I am not sure who it actually was.

[Jose Abreu]

Contrary to many reports, RV says he still hasn't made a decision on whether or not Sale will get an extra start during the last weekend of the season.

[thxfrthmmrs]

What does everyone make of the relationship between HR/FB%, HR/9 and really any other statistics used for measuring HR. There doesn't seem to be a lot of common ground, at least in my scant rummages, in the statistic community. A lot of people think that HR/FB% has a lot to do with luck but obviously it is a skill for certain pitchers who limit HRs like sinkerballers but with neither of Quintana or Sale being sinkerballers, the improvement is jarring. Sure, Sale is straight-up filthy and Quintana works all parts of the plate/changes eye levels like no other, but this was true prior to this year. Their stats this year are true outliers.

 

Our two studs are 7th and 9th in fWAR for the AL largely because Quintana is 3rd in HR/FB% and Sale is 12th (4.4% and 6.9% respectively). It's even more incredible considering the ballpark they call home.

 

Quintana HR/FB%

2012 10.5%

2013 10.2%

2014 4.4%

Career 8.3%

 

Sale HR/FB%

2010 11.1%

2011 10.9%

2012 11.6%

2013 12.9%

2014 6.9%

Career 10.5%

 

Is this something they have worked on with Coop and the coaching staff? That would definitely jive with organizational philosophy of sinkerballers/ground ball inducing pitchers.

 

Is it a matter of younger pitchers become more polished and learning from past mistakes?

 

Or is it that they both have had nearly identical improvements that should regress towards the mean next year?

 

Very curious to where everyone sits on this, but regardless, I just love to talk about our two cost-controlled, front-line left-handed starting pitchers. Especially considering both have improved for the third straight year.

 

I think fWAR is calculated with FIP instead of xFIP, which only looks at their overall HR allowed. If fWAR used xFIP instead, it would certainly penalize their value because their HR/FB is relatively low.

 

To answer your question without actually getting insights from the coaching staff, I would say on surface this has a lot to do with both pitchers relying on their off speed stuff alot more. In Quintana's case, out of the 400+ changeups he's thrown, he's yet to allow a HR.

 

Here's a good look at each's pitches thrown vs results for the past two years.

 

Sale 2013

Sale 2014

 

Q 2013

Q 2014

 

In the case of Sale, he cut down opponent's ISO against his FB by more than half this season, which is pretty remarkable. In 2013, he has allowed 12 HR off his FB, while only allowing 2 so far in 2014. Looking at his fastball velocity in between the past two years, the velocity difference isn't significant enough to suggest such improvement. This could all be a fluke, but it could be not. Digging deeper, I found on Fangraphs his fastball vertical movement went from 4" and 4.1" in 2012 and 2013, respectively, to 6.3" in 2014, making it that much harder for hitters to put good wood on the ball and hit it far.

 

This, by no means, is conclusive evidence or tells the whole story of his development, by it is a good place to start.

Edited September 17, 2014 by thxfrthmmrs

[LittleHurt05]

So Kershaw has pitched approximately 15 innings worth of *yawn

 

How many pitchers has Sale gone up against this year?

 

He struck out Ryan Vogelsong twice, that's it.

[iamshack]

All I can say is I have a very large fear that we are throwing away a key asset's most productive years because the rest of the team isn't ready to compete, under a coaching staff that seems very lax on fundamentals.

 

I know it's unpopular, but I just can't help thinking we should trade him to more adequately capitalize on his value now, if at all possible.

[southsider2k5]

All I can say is I have a very large fear that we are throwing away a key asset's most productive years because the rest of the team isn't ready to compete, under a coaching staff that seems very lax on fundamentals.

 

I know it's unpopular, but I just can't help thinking we should trade him to more adequately capitalize on his value now, if at all possible.

 

All trading Chris Sale would do is alienate a generation of Sox fans who would look back on it for decades and use it against the team.

[SCCWS]

All I can say is I have a very large fear that we are throwing away a key asset's most productive years because the rest of the team isn't ready to compete, under a coaching staff that seems very lax on fundamentals.

 

I know it's unpopular, but I just can't help thinking we should trade him to more adequately capitalize on his value now, if at all possible.

 

 

Chris Sale is 25. That is very young for a star starting pitcher. The White Sox have plenty of time to build around him. Because he is so good at 25, he may be that elite player that comes into an organization every 20 years. He is our Frank Thomas of this new generation. You don't trade an elite player because the team around him is not developed enough.

[Balta1701]

How well would the "swap Sale for several Cardinals since they have a lot of world beating prospects" idea people floated last year look right now?

[bmags]

How well would the "swap Sale for several Cardinals since they have a lot of world beating prospects" idea people floated last year look right now?

 

How well does the "we should just shut Sale down in May" and "Give him Tommy John Now" crowd look right now?

[ShandyMan]

We aren't trading Sale. /thread.

[LittleHurt05]

How well does the "we should just shut Sale down in May" and "Give him Tommy John Now" crowd look right now?

 

Wasn't that crowd shot down and laughed at from day one?

[witesoxfan]

All I can say is I have a very large fear that we are throwing away a key asset's most productive years because the rest of the team isn't ready to compete, under a coaching staff that seems very lax on fundamentals.

 

I know it's unpopular, but I just can't help thinking we should trade him to more adequately capitalize on his value now, if at all possible.

 

You are getting bahsed pretty hard for this, but it's a situation even an outsider like myself can tell you the organization is well aware of. However, with multiple years of control, they will cross that bridge when they get there. If, in the next 3-4 years, Sale suffers a career altering injury, it was still the correct risk assessment of the situation and you are stuck. If not, and the team is not competing by 2018 or 2019, then you can still deal Sale for a premium, premium price to a contending team either in the offseason or prior to the trade deadline.

 

Frankly, to fully capitalize on Sale's value right now getting a prospect in return, I think they'd need 2-3 premium, top 50 type prospects plus another 3-4 good to very good prospects getting a total of 5-7 very quality prospects. There will be better-cost alternatives out there for other teams to pursue. For example, from the Cubs, I'd need at least Soler/Bryant, Baez, Alcantara, Edwards, and then 1-3 other decent prospects on top of that. It's not a price teams will be willing to pay.

[shysocks]

It's not a price teams will be willing to pay.

This. It's not fantasy baseball. Chris Sale

[iamshack]

You are getting bahsed pretty hard for this, but it's a situation even an outsider like myself can tell you the organization is well aware of. However, with multiple years of control, they will cross that bridge when they get there. If, in the next 3-4 years, Sale suffers a career altering injury, it was still the correct risk assessment of the situation and you are stuck. If not, and the team is not competing by 2018 or 2019, then you can still deal Sale for a premium, premium price to a contending team either in the offseason or prior to the trade deadline.

 

Frankly, to fully capitalize on Sale's value right now getting a prospect in return, I think they'd need 2-3 premium, top 50 type prospects plus another 3-4 good to very good prospects getting a total of 5-7 very quality prospects. There will be better-cost alternatives out there for other teams to pursue. For example, from the Cubs, I'd need at least Soler/Bryant, Baez, Alcantara, Edwards, and then 1-3 other decent prospects on top of that. It's not a price teams will be willing to pay.

Well, I admitted it would be unpopular, and I certainly don't mind getting bashed. As you alluded to, I think it is important to consider things like this, despite their unpopularity. One thing I will say is that the "bashers" don't usually come back and admit they were wrong when the minority opinion was correct.

 

As for Sale, a trade would not necessarily have to be entirely for prospects, per se. Honestly, what if the deal was Sale for Rizzo/Bryant/High ceiling A-ball prospect? Doubtful the Cubs would consider that, but I don't think that is soooo incredibly out of the realm of possibilities if another team were to put together some pieces like that...

Edited September 17, 2014 by iamshack

[witesoxfan]

Well, I admitted it would be unpopular, and I certainly don't mind getting bashed. As you alluded to, I think it is important to consider things like this, despite their unpopularity. One thing I will say is that the "bashers" don't usually come back and admit they were wrong when the minority opinion was correct.

 

As for Sale, a trade would not necessarily have to be entirely for prospects, per se. Honestly, what if the deal was Sale for Rizzo/Bryant/High ceiling A-ball prospect? Doubtful the Cubs would consider that, but I don't think that is soooo incredibly out of the realm of possibilities if another team were to put together some pieces like that...

 

I think the Sox would want an elite level pitching prospect, but you're right that it doesn't have to necessarily just be prospects and Rizzo is a guy that would be attractive. Frankly, I think Rizzo, Bryant, and Edwards is pretty damn close.

[thxfrthmmrs]

I think the Sox would want an elite level pitching prospect, but you're right that it doesn't have to necessarily just be prospects and Rizzo is a guy that would be attractive. Frankly, I think Rizzo, Bryant, and Edwards is pretty damn close.

 

Highly doubt Cubs would do that. FWIW I think Rizzo has the more team friendly contract as he is signed through 2019 for $35 mil total, with $14.5 team options in 2020 and 2021. They wouldn't trade their 2 best position players for a pitcher when they have the money to go out and buy 1 if not 2 aces if needed.

[witesoxfan]

Highly doubt Cubs would do that. FWIW I think Rizzo has the more team friendly contract as he is signed through 2019 for $35 mil total, with $14.5 team options in 2020 and 2021. They wouldn't trade their 2 best position players for a pitcher when they have the money to go out and buy 1 if not 2 aces if needed.

 

Right, but that's the point. Sale's intrinsic value to the Sox is so high that it would take an incredible overpay (from their perspective) for a team to make it worthwhile for the Sox this offseason.

[iamshack]

Highly doubt Cubs would do that. FWIW I think Rizzo has the more team friendly contract as he is signed through 2019 for $35 mil total, with $14.5 team options in 2020 and 2021. They wouldn't trade their 2 best position players for a pitcher when they have the money to go out and buy 1 if not 2 aces if needed.

Ok, this is where I struggle to understand the outrage when the mere mention of trading Sale is raised.

 

If we can go to market and buy 1 if not 2 aces, why is the idea met with such universal disdain?

[thxfrthmmrs]

Well, I admitted it would be unpopular, and I certainly don't mind getting bashed. As you alluded to, I think it is important to consider things like this, despite their unpopularity. One thing I will say is that the "bashers" don't usually come back and admit they were wrong when the minority opinion was correct.

 

As for Sale, a trade would not necessarily have to be entirely for prospects, per se. Honestly, what if the deal was Sale for Rizzo/Bryant/High ceiling A-ball prospect? Doubtful the Cubs would consider that, but I don't think that is soooo incredibly out of the realm of possibilities if another team were to put together some pieces like that...

 

I commend you for going against the popular believe. For the record, I start a thread on this last year and was bashed pretty bad as well.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=89048

 

Being where we are at now, I'd still do Taveras, Wacha, Martinez and Wong for Sale.

[iamshack]

I commend you for going against the popular believe. For the record, I start a thread on this last year and was bashed pretty bad as well.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=89048

 

Being where we are at now, I'd still do Taveras, Wacha, Martinez and Wong for Sale.

You'll see I chimed in that I would trade basically anyone for the right package.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Ok, this is where I struggle to understand the outrage when the mere mention of trading Sale is raised.

 

If we can go to market and buy 1 if not 2 aces, why is the idea met with such universal disdain?

 

Chris Sale is making 1/5th of what he'd be worth in the open market between now and 2019.

 

For me, the logic is, if Sale couldn't make it through a season healthy at this stage of his career, throwing for as hard as he throws for 200 innings a year for the next 3 years of .500 baseball is going to be a huge risk for the Sox. Therefore I will capitalize on his team friendly contract and let a team pay a boatload of prospects for him. But others prefer an ace with a team friendly contract and also a question mark that hasn't gone away.

Edited September 17, 2014 by thxfrthmmrs

[iamshack]

Chris Sale is making 1/5th of what he'd be worth in the open market between now and 2019.

Right, so that is rolled into his value as an asset. A team trading for him would acquire that value, which they would not be able to capture on the open market.

[cabiness42]

I wonder how many teams have had players lead the league in both ERA and OPS in the same season, and of those what is the largest number of games said team lost that season?