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2014 FIFA World Cup


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QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jun 22, 2014 -> 08:11 PM)
Just hope for a one goal game between Ghana/Portugal at least. And we don't lose by more then 2 goals. right?

 

 

 

If Ghana wins by 1 and the US loses by 1 but Ghana scores 2 more goals than the US(GHA wins 3-2,US loses 2-1) then Ghana will move on.

 

If we lose by the same scoreline as Ghana wins by, then we move on.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jun 22, 2014 -> 05:57 PM)
Michael Bradley sigh

 

Bradley was better today, but that late giveaway was very, very costly. He's still by far the most important guy in a US jersey (and he shouldn't get criticism for the ball that was cleared off the line... goalie out of the net, put it on frame with pace... which he did - great play by the defender to keep the ball out). And give credit to Ronaldo... that last cross was brilliant.

 

I would have taken a draw at halftime if offered. But that was a gut wrenching way to earn a point.

 

Lot of options to get through still. Ghana-Portugal draw is the best case scenario. Portugal needs to make up 5 goals in GD. And the US is +1 vs. Ghana in goals scored (helpful in the event Ghana beats Portugal by 1 and the US loses to Germany by 1). Would have been phenomenal to get through today though. Thursday can't get here soon enough...

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 22, 2014 -> 08:28 PM)
This is why Germany not beating Ghana hurt the US so much. Had Germany won, we'd be into the next round without much of an issue.

 

 

 

well Germany coming back to tie was huge of the US...

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QUOTE (zenryan @ Jun 22, 2014 -> 07:31 PM)
well Germany coming back to tie was huge of the US...

 

Klose had a few chances to give Germany the lead after that goal.

 

You kind of also expect Germany to beat Ghana.

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USA and Germany should just kick the ball around for 90 minutes Thursday and finish with a 0-0 draw.

 

They will never go so far as to blatantly collude, but if the game gets past the 60' mark and is tied, I do believe that both teams will become much more conservative. Especially Germany, since even a fluke late goal to give the US a 1-goal win won't hurt Germany unless Ghana manages to blast Portugal by 4+ goals.

 

Most likely outcomes (draws and one goal wins) and what they mean:

 

US/Germany draw, any Portugal/Ghana outcome: Germany wins group over US on goal differential tiebreaker, US second

 

Germany beats US 2-1, Ghana beats Portugal 2-1: Germany wins group, US second over Ghana on head-to-head tiebreaker

Germany beats US 1-0, Ghana beats Portugal 2-1: Germany wins group, Ghana second over US on goals scored tiebreaker <--- worst possible outcome that has a reasonable chance of happening.

Germany beats US 2-1, Ghana beats Portugal 1-0: Germany wins group, US second over Ghana on goals scored tiebreaker

Germany beats US by any score, Ghana/Portugal draw: Germany wins group, US second

Germany beats US 1-0 or 2-1, Portugal beats Ghana 2-1, 1-0 or 2-0: Germany wins group, US second over Portugal on goal differential tiebreaker

 

US beats Germany 2-1, 1-0 or 2-0, Ghana beats Portugal 2-1, 1-0 or 2-0: US wins group, Germany second over Ghana on goal differential tiebreaker

US beats Germany by any score, Ghana/Portugal draw: US wins group, Germany second

US beats Germany 2-1, 1-0 or 2-0, Portugal beats Ghana 2-1, 1-0 or 2-1: US wins group, Germany second over Portugal on goal differential tiebreaker

 

Less likely outcomes:

 

Germany beats US and Ghana beats Portugal and at least one of the games is decided by more than one goal: Germany wins group and Ghana second over US on goal differential tiebreaker

 

Germany beats US and Portugal beats Ghana and the combined margins in the two games is more than five: Germany wins group and Portugal second over US on goal differential tiebreaker

 

Germany beats US and Portugal beats Ghana and the combined margins in the two games is exactly five: Germany wins group and US-Portugal go to goals scored tiebreaker. If that is the same (for example, Germany beats US 3-0 and Portugal beats Ghana 2-0), then a coin flip decides who gets second place.

 

US beats Germany and Ghana beats Portugal and the combined margins in the two games is more than five: US wins group and Ghana second over Germany on goal differential tiebreaker

 

US beats Germany and Portugal beats Ghana and the combined margins in the two games is more than eight: US wins group and Portugal second over Germany on goal differential tiebreaker

Edited by HickoryHuskers
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Too bad there isn't a way to fade that action. I'd do it in a heartbeat. It is like taking money from people betting on the Cubs to win the WS.

 

Numbers Never Lie ‏@ESPN_Numbers 9m

 

Odds of #USMNT winning World Cup (via @Sportsbook_com): Before Ghana match: 200/1 Before Portugal match: 80/1 RIGHT NOW: 40/1

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There is a screen shot on Twitter yesterday of Bradley alone with the ball, 94:21 on the clock, just 39 seconds from victory if you just keep the ball away from Portugal and kick towards their end. Unbelievable they blew it, just a straight choke job. Luckily, they are still in a good position, but would have been nice to have clinched already and possibly avoided Belgium.

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Too bad there isn't a way to fade that action. I'd do it in a heartbeat. It is like taking money from people betting on the Cubs to win the WS.

 

Numbers Never Lie ‏@ESPN_Numbers 9m

 

Odds of #USMNT winning World Cup (via @Sportsbook_com): Before Ghana match: 200/1 Before Portugal match: 80/1 RIGHT NOW: 40/1

 

40/1 right now is a terrible price, but 80/1 yesterday was actually a decent price. If I had known that I might have put down $20 on that. Based on Nate Silver's SPI, actual odds right now are around 80/1 and yesterday they were around 100/1.

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There is a screen shot on Twitter yesterday of Bradley alone with the ball, 94:21 on the clock, just 39 seconds from victory if you just keep the ball away from Portugal and kick towards their end. Unbelievable they blew it, just a straight choke job. Luckily, they are still in a good position, but would have been nice to have clinched already and possibly avoided Belgium.

 

Watch the full 5 second clip here instead of just the screen shot.

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/world-cu...at-we-did-draw/

 

Bradley got a very high pass that is not easy to control with one touch. The screen shot shows the ball on his foot, but the screen shot doesn't tell you that the ball had just come down at a high angle with pace. Now, his first touch got farther away from him than he wanted and that lost him the ball, but it wasn't like he was making a bad decision. The bad decision was not having two guys glued to Ronaldo, with at least one of them fouling him as soon as the ball headed his way. Free kick would have been too far away to be much of a chance to score.

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US had a bunch of bad turnovers in that game. Were really lucky not to have lost it earlier.

 

Cameron's turnover that led to the first goal was awful, but Portugal also got very lucky with all the shots they dodged. Had the keeper completely out of the net and got one saved off a defender's knee.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 23, 2014 -> 10:09 AM)
Cameron's turnover that led to the first goal was awful, but Portugal also got very lucky with all the shots they dodged. Had the keeper completely out of the net and got one saved off a defender's knee.

 

Or when Bradley kicked it at the defender on the goal line instead of the open net. That should have been a goal.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jun 23, 2014 -> 09:11 AM)
Or when Bradley kicked it at the defender on the goal line instead of the open net. That should have been a goal.

 

Bradley hitting that first time was absolutely correct. The keeper is out. Don't mess around with a bouncing ball and try to pick a corner. Don't take an extra touch to give the defense time to recover. Hit it first time, with pace, on frame. Bradley did that. Tip your cap to the defender making a hell of a play and move on.

 

Bradley was a lot better yesterday. He controlled the midfield in the first half (to the point that Portugal had to make a change at the half). Bradley and Dempsey combined really well a number of times in the first half. He ran more than anyone else on the roster and completed 87% of his passes. Yes, the last turnover was bad (though not nearly as bad as people are making it out to be), but there's plenty of blame to go around on the last goal (Bradley, Beckerman for not tracking back, Beasley for not closing Ronaldo down, Cameron and Fabian Johnson for not tracking the run, and Klinnsman for taking off the wing on that side - Zusi - to bring on Omar Gonzalez leaving Beasley on an island).

 

 

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Whoever ends up coming out of group A is going to have a tough first round match up against either of these teams (Netherlands, Chile) both very tough. Impressive.

 

I think the Group A and B winners will both be favorites to get through to the semifinals. Groups C/D aren't terribly strong.

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