There needs to be a name for Buehrle-type pitchers

[southsider2k5]

Who, Harold? I don't understand how anybody can't be a HUGE Buehrle fan and not as upset as me that the Sox let him go. To me his greatness is a no brainer.

 

No one wanted to see Buehrle leave until they saw that contract. Then people realized that is was a f***ing stupid contract, and wished him well.

[Balta1701]

An average #1 starter puts up about 6 fWAR per year. That's a reasonable definition of an ace to me. Just under 4 war was the average for a #2.

 

Burgle pitched like an ace in 2005 and has otherwise generally been a solid #2 starter, often an above average number 2.

[greg775]

No one wanted to see Buehrle leave until they saw that contract. Then people realized that is was a f***ing stupid contract, and wished him well.

Yet as the one person pointed out, he's lived up to his contract. I know you didn't bring up other bad contracts, but I shall invoke the name of Adam Dunn here. If only Buehrle had been given THAT chunk of money instead of the big fella.

[Balta1701]

Yet as the one person pointed out, he's lived up to his contract. I know you didn't bring up other bad contracts, but I shall invoke the name of Adam Dunn here. If only Buehrle had been given THAT chunk of money instead of the big fella.

Then he still would have left because the Marlins offered a lot more than that.

[witesoxfan]

An average #1 starter puts up about 6 fWAR per year. That's a reasonable definition of an ace to me. Just under 4 war was the average for a #2.

 

Burgle pitched like an ace in 2005 and has otherwise generally been a solid #2 starter, often an above average number 2.

 

It's really a point of semantics, but you will typically see fWARs of 5 while 6 is saved for the truly elite. In the majors last year, only 6 guys had an fWAR of 6 and 10 had an fWAR of 5. I also like to take ERA into account for all of those cases too, and guys like Javier Vazquez were putting up fWARs of 5 too simply because he had really good peripherals, but he was never an ace quality pitcher with the Sox.

[Balta1701]

It's really a point of semantics, but you will typically see fWARs of 5 while 6 is saved for the truly elite. In the majors last year, only 6 guys had an fWAR of 6 and 10 had an fWAR of 5. I also like to take ERA into account for all of those cases too, and guys like Javier Vazquez were putting up fWARs of 5 too simply because he had really good peripherals, but he was never an ace quality pitcher with the Sox.

Numbers were not picked at random.

[southsider2k5]

Yet as the one person pointed out, he's lived up to his contract. I know you didn't bring up other bad contracts, but I shall invoke the name of Adam Dunn here. If only Buehrle had been given THAT chunk of money instead of the big fella.

 

The Dunn contract was given out at a different time than the Buehrle one. They aren't really able to be compared because of the differing financial circumstances of the team at those points in time.

[witesoxfan]

Numbers were not picked at random.

 

Those are pretty arbitrary numbers he uses and I don't know that I agree with his logic. He's also not using fWAR as he clearly indicates he is using B-R's Play Index tool, not that it matters a lot either way.

 

The mean RA9-WAR (bWAR) for the top 30 pitchers in the majors last year was 5 (5.01667, to be exact). The mean fWAR for the top 30 pitchers last year was 4.62. How is that information any less useful or applicable than the information he provided?

 

This is also when people misuse the WAR statistic. You see a guy put up a WAR of 4.8 and say "nope, he's not an ace," when there could be any number of different circumstances surrounding that. Jose Fernandez put up an ERA of 2.19 last year with great peripherals all around, but because he only threw 172 innings, as opposed to 200, his fWAR was 4.2. You are going to have a hell of a tough time convincing me that Jose Fernandez was not an ace.

 

Maybe the best way to look at it is through some sort of lens of productivity where you find out WAR/9 to find out who is the most productive per inning pitched. Clayton Kershaw led all pitchers with a 6.5 WAR last year, but his WAR/9 was 0.2479. Matt Harvey, on the other hand, threw about 60 fewer innings but had a similarly good 6.1 fWAR, which equated to a 0.3079 WAR/9.

 

I don't know exactly, we can mess with it any way we want to. I strongly believe that there are more than 6 aces in the game, which is why I will strongly disagree with Joe Aiello's reasoning and methodology.

Edited June 3, 2014 by witesoxfan

[greg775]

Then he still would have left because the Marlins offered a lot more than that.

 

I just think it's kind of sad that all that money that's gone to Dunn could have gone to Mark. Arguably having a stud like him in the rotation would have kept the Sox in contention during this "rebuilding." All Dunn has provided is ... well, I won't go into that again.

[Balta1701]

I just think it's kind of sad that all that money that's gone to Dunn could have gone to Mark. Arguably having a stud like him in the rotation would have kept the Sox in contention during this "rebuilding." All Dunn has provided is ... well, I won't go into that again.

I'll grant you that Dunn has been way overpaid, but having Mark in the rotation wouldn't have helped keep the Sox in contention. Last year's pitching staff was decently solid as it was and there wasn't room for him; they lost 2 starters during the year with Peavy and Floyd and still put together decent numbers. In 2012 he'd have been useful but Jose Quintana did a pretty good job of filling in the rotation spot that opened when Danks got hurt.

 

You'd have a better case if you said the Sox should have traded away Danks or Floyd and kept Mark instead.

[southsider2k5]

I'll grant you that Dunn has been way overpaid, but having Mark in the rotation wouldn't have helped keep the Sox in contention. Last year's pitching staff was decently solid as it was and there wasn't room for him; they lost 2 starters during the year with Peavy and Floyd and still put together decent numbers. In 2012 he'd have been useful but Jose Quintana did a pretty good job of filling in the rotation spot that opened when Danks got hurt.

 

You'd have a better case if you said the Sox should have traded away Danks or Floyd and kept Mark instead.

 

If Buehrle was here, there is a pretty distinct chance that Quintana doesn't make his MLB debut for a much longer period of time. Remember he was an emergency call up because of injuries and none of the other people who were in that spot in the rotation were guys the Sox wanted to callup. He was pitching in Birmingham, and had only made 9 starts down there, after having no starts above A before that season. The plan was for an emergency start and to send him back to Birmingham.

 

When you factor in how few innings he had in a season under his belt (102 was his previous season high), plus his complete lack of experience in the minors, there is a real argument to be made that he might not have made his major league debut until something like middle to late 2013 if another starter was in the rotation to block Quintana's move to the majors.

[witesoxfan]

If Buehrle was here, there is a pretty distinct chance that Quintana doesn't make his MLB debut for a much longer period of time. Remember he was an emergency call up because of injuries and none of the other people who were in that spot in the rotation were guys the Sox wanted to callup. He was pitching in Birmingham, and had only made 9 starts down there, after having no starts above A before that season. The plan was for an emergency start and to send him back to Birmingham.

 

When you factor in how few innings he had in a season under his belt (102 was his previous season high), plus his complete lack of experience in the minors, there is a real argument to be made that he might not have made his major league debut until something like middle to late 2013 if another starter was in the rotation to block Quintana's move to the majors.

 

Even given the fact that the Sox organization as a whole liked Quintana's arm, they have gotten incredibly lucky with him. What a coup.

[southsider2k5]

Even given the fact that the Sox organization as a whole liked Quintana's arm, they have gotten incredibly lucky with him. What a coup.

 

You really can't write a better script than Jose Quintana for the White Sox. They got the kid for nothing, as a minor league free agent. They didn't pay him a signing bonus or anything. Then they get him to sign a steal of a long term contract extension with multiple cheap option years.

[coco1997]

What a *Coop.

 

Fixed.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

Did Buehrle and Quintana have any roster overlap? Would be interested to see what Jose could have gleaned from Buehrle in regards to TWTW and all that non-statistical bulls***.

[Balta1701]

Did Buehrle and Quintana have any roster overlap? Would be interested to see what Jose could have gleaned from Buehrle in regards to TWTW and all that non-statistical bulls***.

Any idea that Quintana could somehow have had a better learning curve than what we've seen from him isn't one I'll agree with.

[Donny Lucy's Avocado Farm]

Any idea that Quintana could somehow have had a better learning curve than what we've seen from him isn't one I'll agree with.

 

I don't think my attempt at humor made it through written word.

[southsider2k5]

Did Buehrle and Quintana have any roster overlap? Would be interested to see what Jose could have gleaned from Buehrle in regards to TWTW and all that non-statistical bulls***.

 

Buehrle signed with Florida on Dec 9, 2011. Quintana signed a minor league deal with the Sox on November 9, 2011. They were never in a spring training, or anything like that, together. Odds are near 100% they were never in any activities together as members of the White Sox.

[witesoxfan]

Did Buehrle and Quintana have any roster overlap? Would be interested to see what Jose could have gleaned from Buehrle in regards to TWTW and all that non-statistical bulls***.

 

Jose Quintana gained strength through Quetzalcoatl. Now, he must learn TWTW through the Hawk.

[Eminor3rd]

I just think it's kind of sad that all that money that's gone to Dunn could have gone to Mark. Arguably having a stud like him in the rotation would have kept the Sox in contention during this "rebuilding." All Dunn has provided is ... well, I won't go into that again.

 

Dunn had a chance to propel the franchise into the playoffs, Mark was a declining mid-rotation starter. It's extremely easy to see why those moves were made. That they didn't work out doesn't change the validity of the decisions. There was ALWAYS a chance they'd work out or not work out, and I'd prefer my team go for the win every time in that situation. The immediate, worst-case scenario collapse of Dunn's career was far less likely an outcome than that of him continuing his career production along a normal trajectory.

 

It also needs to be noted that Buerhle's success right now is almost entirely a result of an extremely flukey HR/FB rate. I'm not saying that HR/FB is all "luck," but his current rate isn't sustainable by anyone ever and it's almost 10% lower than his career level. This is another situation (like Flowers and his BABIP) where unless you think he's changed something this year that's made him the best of alltime at HR prevention, you have to acknowledge that it is not going to last and very likely would not have occurred under different circumstances.

[Quin]

Mark's not an ace, he's a workhorse.

 

But he is rare even then. Workstallion? Workunicorn?

[greg775]

Mark's not an ace, he's a workhorse.

 

But he is rare even then. Workstallion? Workunicorn?

 

Who is an ace and how many teams have had them?? Shields, for example, is no more an ace than Buehrle. How many teams have aces? I guarantee you not many, or you could argue that many guys you might pick are not aces. Remember Cliff Lee? Some years he was an ace; some years he sucked. I contend there are not many clear cut aces in baseball since Buehrle emerged as a stellar pitcher.

Edited June 5, 2014 by greg775

[Kyyle23]

Who is an ace and how many teams have had them?? Shields, for example, is no more an ace than Buehrle. How many teams have aces? I guarantee you not many, or you could argue that many guys you might pick are not aces. Remember Cliff Lee? Some years he was an ace; some years he sucked. I contend there are not many clear cut aces in baseball since Buehrle emerged as a stellar pitcher.

 

Which years were these? After he came up for good and had his 22-3 season, he was pretty damn good

[witesoxfan]

Who is an ace and how many teams have had them?? Shields, for example, is no more an ace than Buehrle. How many teams have aces? I guarantee you not many, or you could argue that many guys you might pick are not aces. Remember Cliff Lee? Some years he was an ace; some years he sucked. I contend there are not many clear cut aces in baseball since Buehrle emerged as a stellar pitcher.

Cliff Lee's ERA per season, starting in 2008

 

2008 - 2.54

2009 - 3.22

2010 - 3.18

2011 - 2.40

2012 - 3.16

2013 - 2.87

2014 - 3.18

 

 

[LittleHurt05]

CLINAA