The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox

[caulfield12]

http://www.nbcsports.com/baseball/mlb/oakland-way

 

Great article, long, but as always with Posnanski, worth reading.

 

 

1) They don't invest in toolsy outfielders who strike out way too many times compared to their walk rates...they have brought in players like Cespedes, Crisp and Gentry at the major league level with lots of athleticism, but they don't try to make athletes into ballplayers as a consistent drafting/development philosophy.

 

2) They aren't afraid to use platoons and make back-up plans, even when those guys are hitting as well as Moss (see the trade for Kyle Blanks example) this season.

 

3) With pitching, target strikethrowers and "outs getters" more than being overly concerned with radar guns and K's, especially in stadiums with lots of foul territory and dead fog nights where the ball doesn't carry. That would lead to the White Sox taking either Aiken or Nola over the likes of Rodon/Kolek. It might also have something to do with what's going on with Beck and Danish. See examples of Kazmir and Millone, who throws the same velocity-wise as Buehrle and Chen. Pitch movement/effectiveness, etc.

 

"I would say there are three or four things that we concentrate on when it comes to pitching," Zaidi says. He then lists off what he readily admits are relatively basic things that you will hear from most teams -- stuff like command and intelligence and a proven track record of performance (and building a strong defense that can help a pitcher prevent runs). He talks about the talent A's pitching coach Curt Young has for helping pitchers find effective ways of getting batters out.

 

4) Don't use the bullpen in conventional ways or follow the textbook...be imaginative (or the opposite of Ventura for much of his time in Chicago). Also, be willing to admit you're wrong with guys like Johnson and be willing to go with an untested Doolittle (and quickly).

 

5) The biggest lesson, perhaps...not getting discouraged with one or two failures at the major league level, but having longer-lasting confidence in their original assessments on players and their AA/AAA results (see Donaldson, Josh). Don't get too discouraged or give up too quickly on a Marcus Semien when he gets overmatched and has a lot of traits you like in his minor league statistics (pitch taking/working the count, OBP, low K/BB ratios, even to the point where there are more BB's than walks).

 

6) No matter how ugly a guy's scouting profile or lack of tools, does he get on base? Does he limit the number of outs he gives up to the opposition? The White Sox are 5th in the majors in runs scored and 15th in OBP (.319). Meanwhile, Oakland is first (.340).

 

7) Keep trying to figure out ways to improve the defensive metrics...a long ways to go in that area. Control runs allowed.

 

8) Core of position players getting 60-65% of your at-bats or more in the 25-31 age range. CHECK.

Edited June 2, 2014 by caulfield12

[Jake]

Nobody's given up on Semien except Soxtalk. It was clear as day before the season that he needed more than a 30-day trial in AAA and that remains true today.

[ptatc]

http://www.nbcsports.com/baseball/mlb/oakland-way

 

Great article, long, but as always with Posnanski, worth reading.

 

 

1) They don't invest in toolsy outfielders who strike out way too many times compared to their walk rates...they have brought in players like Cespedes, Crisp and Gentry at the major league level with lots of athleticism, but they don't try to make athletes into ballplayers as a consistent drafting/development philosophy.

 

2) They aren't afraid to use platoons and make back-up plans, even when those guys are hitting as well as Moss (see the trade for Kyle Blanks example) this season.

 

3) With pitching, target strikethrowers and "outs getters" more than being overly concerned with radar guns and K's, especially in stadiums with lots of foul territory and dead fog nights where the ball doesn't carry. That would lead to the White Sox taking either Aiken or Nola over the likes of Rodon/Kolek. It might also have something to do with what's going on with Beck and Danish. See examples of Kazmir and Millone, who throws the same as Buehrle and Chen.

 

4) Don't use the bullpen in conventional ways or follow the textbook...be imaginative (or the opposite of Ventura for much of his time in Chicago). Also, be willing to admit you're wrong with guys like Johnson and be willing to go with an untested Doolittle (and quickly).

 

5) The biggest lesson, perhaps...not getting discouraged with one or two failures at the major league level, but having longer-lasting confidence in their original assessments on players and their AA/AAA results (see Donaldson, Josh). Don't get too discouraged or give up too quickly on a Marcus Semien when he gets overmatched and has a lot of traits you like in his minor league statistics (pitch taking/working the count, OBP, low K/BB ratios, even to the point where there are more BB's than walks).

 

6) No matter how ugly a guy's scouting profile or lack of tools, does he get on base? Does he limit the number of outs he gives up to the opposition?

7) Play to the averages so you can win against many poor teams in the regular season but lose in the post season.

[chitownsportsfan]

eh, if it was so easy everyone would do it. Donaldson is like an 7-8 WAR player, that's a pretty f***ing good foundation. Basically it comes down to "find really good players". I mean, giving Donaldson 160 some PA before he went "poof, 8 war player" is some sort of guide?

 

I RTFA and I just don't see it, so much of this stuff is just hindsight bias.

 

The A's are really good at finding guys good at baseball. That's a combination of scouting, sabermetrics and luck, with luck being perhaps the most important -- see every playoff series since Beane took over. His s*** doesn't work in the playoffs, and most team's s*** doesn't work in teh regular season without a good deal of luck. Especially when you're working on the margins as a mid to small market team.

Edited June 2, 2014 by chitownsportsfan

[ptatc]

eh, if it was so easy everyone would do it. Donaldson is like an 7-8 WAR player, that's a pretty f***ing good foundation. Basically it comes down to "find really good players".

Correct.

[Balta1701]

eh, if it was so easy everyone would do it. Donaldson is like an 7-8 WAR player, that's a pretty f***ing good foundation. Basically it comes down to "find really good players".

Traded, I might add, as a low level minor league throw in from the Cubs in the Rich Harden deal.

 

That is one I think is important. When you trade away guys, steal some lottery tickets from a team's lowest minor league levels.

[caulfield12]

Traded, I might add, as a low level minor league throw in from the Cubs in the Rich Harden deal.

 

That is one I think is important. When you trade away guys, steal some lottery tickets from a team's lowest minor league levels.

 

 

Or ones that are "stuck" (due to injuries or non-performance or veteran depth in front of them) at higher levels, like Quentin, Eaton, Garcia and Davidson...in the case of the White Sox, fans aren't going to be allow them to go through five long years of searching for solutions like the A's went through, even though they never bottomed out and lost more than 90 games in any season.

 

Don't buy into the idea of rebuilding or starting over. Always fight and compete each season.

[southsider2k5]

There are a lot of teams around baseball that wish they could create pitching the way that the White Sox do.

[chitownsportsfan]

Traded, I might add, as a low level minor league throw in from the Cubs in the Rich Harden deal.

 

That is one I think is important. When you trade away guys, steal some lottery tickets from a team's lowest minor league levels.

 

I certainly think that you have to have a philosophy as an organization about the type of player you think you can work with and those that you can't. Chicago seemingly just realized they can't take every toolsy football player and teach him baseball. On the flip side, taking hard throwers and turning them into pitchers -- they've had a lot of success there.

 

Agree that you have to give yourself a bunch of lotto tickets and the Sox are doing better with that by signing the latin guys. Only 1 in 20 might pan out but if you strike a superstar on that 1 guy it's totally worth it. In a way, that's what they've been trying to do with all the toolsy outfielders they've drafted but you have to wonder if the Sox are doing something wrong wrt to player development if none of those guys pans out -- certainly Hawkins will be a litmus test.

 

I mean look at the Royals, those guys make the Sox' track record on position player development look downright Bean esque. They had the top rated farm system for seemingly half a decade and hardly any of those guys developed.

[caulfield12]

eh, if it was so easy everyone would do it. Donaldson is like an 7-8 WAR player, that's a pretty f***ing good foundation. Basically it comes down to "find really good players". I mean, giving Donaldson 160 some PA before he went "poof, 8 war player" is some sort of guide?

 

I RTFA and I just don't see it, so much of this stuff is just hindsight bias.

 

The A's are really good at finding guys good at baseball. That's a combination of scouting, sabermetrics and luck, with luck being perhaps the most important -- see every playoff series since Beane took over. His s*** doesn't work in the playoffs, and most team's s*** doesn't work in teh regular season without a good deal of luck. Especially when you're working on the margins as a mid to small market team.

 

 

 

Still, the theories are correct, especially for a small market team with limited revenues.

 

We can say the same thing about the Atlanta Braves, and yet who wouldn't want to experience their level of success all those seasons?

 

In order to get to the World Series and win it, you have to put yourself in playoff position on a consistent basis (see Detroit Tigers).

 

PLUS, we just had absolutely EVERYTHING go our way in 2005, it's not nearly as easy as we made it look that year...not even so easy to get back to the playoffs for the White Sox, let alone making it 2 of 3 years or 3 of 4.

Edited June 2, 2014 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

I certainly think that you have to have a philosophy as an organization about the type of player you think you can work with and those that you can't. Chicago seemingly just realized they can't take every toolsy football player and teach him baseball. On the flip side, taking hard throwers and turning them into pitchers -- they've had a lot of success there.

Agree that you have to give yourself a bunch of lotto tickets and the Sox are doing better with that by signing the latin guys. Only 1 in 20 might pan out but if you strike a superstar on that 1 guy it's totally worth it. In a way, that's what they've been trying to do with all the toolsy outfielders they've drafted but you have to wonder if the Sox are doing something wrong wrt to player development if none of those guys pans out -- certainly Hawkins will be a litmus test.

 

I mean look at the Royals, those guys make the Sox' track record on position player development look downright Bean esque. They had the top rated farm system for seemingly half a decade and hardly any of those guys developed.

 

 

Examples?

 

I assume you're talking about pitchers we've brought in from other organizations, moreso than the pitchers the White Sox have drafted over the Don Cooper years.

 

Jenks and Santos, Floyd, Danks (pre-surgery), Contreras, Sale? Santiago? (Certainly hasn't worked with Paulino or Cleto).

 

Our biggest success story of the last five years is Quintana, who profiles more like an A's pitching find, even though he does throw 92-93, which is very solid for a lefty.

Edited June 2, 2014 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Examples?

 

I assume you're talking about pitchers we've brought in from other organizations, moreso than the pitchers the White Sox have drafted over the Don Cooper years.

 

Jenks and Santos, Floyd, Danks (pre-surgery), Contreras, Sale? Santiago? (Certainly hasn't worked with Paulino or Cleto).

 

Our biggest success story of the last five years is Quintana, who profiles more like an A's pitching find, even though he does throw 92-93, which is very solid for a lefty.

 

Thornton, Sale, Contreras, Hector, Santos, Jenks, Jones, Edwin Jackson off the top of my head.

 

Jackson was actually pretty damn good his season under Cooper then went back to being the exact same guy after he left.

[caulfield12]

Thornton, Sale, Contreras, Hector, Santos, Jenks, Jones, Edwin Jackson off the top of my head.

 

Jackson was actually pretty damn good his season under Cooper then went back to being the exact same guy after he left.

 

 

Jackson had one really solid season for the Tigers before tapering off and he has been "decent" this year with the Cubs, but he probably owes Cooper about 1/3rd of that deal Epstein gave him.

 

As far as Nate Jones goes, the jury is still out.

 

Another name you could add to the list would be Damaso Marte, FWIW.

 

 

Edited June 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Oh yea Marte. Also while doing some research for this thread I ran across the name: Mike MacDougal. Also, Nick Massett was a thing for a minute. Coop can't fix'em all -- but overall the Sox have acquired so much low cost above replacement pitching it's kept them afloat and papered over a really bad position player development history.

[caulfield12]

Oh yea Marte. Also while doing some research for this thread I ran across the name: Mike MacDougal. Also, Nick Massett was a thing for a minute. Coop can't fix'em all -- but overall the Sox have acquired so much low cost above replacement pitching it's kept them afloat and papered over a really bad position player development history.

 

 

There were actually four guys with differing pedigrees (and potentially-dominant stuff) who "failed" with the White Sox at right around the same time (2007-2008)...

 

Aardsma, MacDougal, Massett and Sisco

[cabiness42]

The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox

 

You want the Sox to start losing every single playoff series they're ever in?

[chitownsportsfan]

There were actually four guys with differing pedigrees (and potentially-dominant stuff) who "failed" with the White Sox at right around the same time (2007-2008)...

 

Aardsma, MacDougal, Massett and Sisco

 

Yea, those were the halycon days of "doesn't matter how bad the dude was before Chicago, Cooper will fix 'em". Found out the limits of that plan.

[chitownsportsfan]

You want the Sox to start losing every single playoff series they're ever in?

 

Gotta pay to play. I'd take getting there 4 or 5 times every decade and going from there.

[ptatc]

Still, the theories are correct, especially for a small market team with limited revenues.

 

We can say the same thing about the Atlanta Braves, and yet who wouldn't want to experience their level of success all those seasons?

 

In order to get to the World Series and win it, you have to put yourself in playoff position on a consistent basis (see Detroit Tigers).

 

PLUS, we just had absolutely EVERYTHING go our way in 2005, it's not nearly as easy as we made it look that year...not even so easy to get back to the playoffs for the White Sox, let alone making it 2 of 3 years or 3 of 4.

The problem with this is that the theory is based on a player using the averages such as OBP to be succeesful. This works in the regular season where you get to face average or below average pitchers. This type of player has less of a chance in the playoffs against good to great pitchers which the playoff teams typically have. This is why they don't do as well in the playoffs.

 

In a 7 game series the talent wins not playing the averages. Of course, going by the averages occasinally they do win.

[cabiness42]

Gotta pay to play. I'd take getting there 4 or 5 times every decade and going from there.

 

I'll take one pennant and World Series championship over zero.

[caulfield12]

The problem with this is that the theory is based on a player using the averages such as OBP to be succeesful. This works in the regular season where you get to face average or below average pitchers. This type of player has less of a chance in the playoffs against good to great pitchers which the playoff teams typically have. This is why they don't do as well in the playoffs.

 

In a 7 game series the talent wins not playing the averages. Of course, going by the averages occasinally they do win.

 

Right.

 

The only way around this fact is simply to be so good at scouting and drafting/development that you can have 4-5 Josh Donaldson's on your team in their cost-controlled years.

 

Those early 2000's A's teams had the pitching (Mulder/Zito/Hudson) but not quite enough clutch hitting, despite the presence of Giambi, Eric Chavez, Damon, Dye and perennial-MVP candidate Miguel Tejada. Nick Swisher, later on.

 

 

Part of it was freaky bad luck, or just talent, or however you want to describe it...the Jeter/Jeremy Giambi play at the plate, for example.

 

It's also a bit ironic that those A's and Twins teams of that era, the only team they could beat was each other in the playoffs.

Edited June 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

I'll take one pennant and World Series championship over zero.

 

1>0

[caulfield12]

However, if you put Beane in Chicago, where he would have significant revenue advantages, getting to the playoffs more often would provide him a significant amount of payroll leeway to fix whatever holes they have. Same with Friedman of the Rays.

 

We'll probably never know the answer to how he/they would do with the White Sox.

 

We do, on the other hand, have a pretty good idea what will happen when you have PEDs testing and the inability to spend $175 million or so every season like the Red Sox/Epstein. Mistakes like JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Edgar Renteria, Carl Crawford, Dice-K, Beckett or Lackey weren't automatic death sentences like the Edwin Jackson one.

 

 

The Red Sox won two World Series during his tenure, but those are achievements that will largely be associated with those year's players and the now departed Terry Francona.

 

Epstein's legacy is far more mixed. He's leaving a mess behind him as he leaves Fenway for Wrigley.

 

Theo will be remembered for his gutsy trading of Nomar and his wooing of Curt Schilling. He'll be remembered as the guy who drafted Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

But he'll also be the guy linked to a litany of poor free-agency decisions.

 

Did any one tell Theo that the Cubs are plain terrible? He's going to have his work cut out for him in Chicago.

 

If the local boy really wanted to do good, he would not have left. And certainly not now.

 

As it is, few are complaining that he's gone.

bleacherreport.com

 

[southsider2k5]

However, if you put Beane in Chicago, where he would have significant revenue advantages, getting to the playoffs more often would provide him a significant amount of payroll leeway to fix whatever holes they have. Same with Friedman of the Rays.

 

We'll probably never know the answer to how he/they would do with the White Sox.

 

We do, on the other hand, have a pretty good idea what will happen when you have PEDs testing and the inability to spend $175 million or so every season like the Red Sox/Epstein. Mistakes like JD Drew, Julio Lugo, Edgar Renteria, Carl Crawford, Dice-K, Beckett or Lackey weren't automatic death sentences like the Edwin Jackson one.

 

 

The Red Sox won two World Series during his tenure, but those are achievements that will largely be associated with those year's players and the now departed Terry Francona.

 

Epstein's legacy is far more mixed. He's leaving a mess behind him as he leaves Fenway for Wrigley.

 

Theo will be remembered for his gutsy trading of Nomar and his wooing of Curt Schilling. He'll be remembered as the guy who drafted Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

But he'll also be the guy linked to a litany of poor free-agency decisions.

 

Did any one tell Theo that the Cubs are plain terrible? He's going to have his work cut out for him in Chicago.

 

If the local boy really wanted to do good, he would not have left. And certainly not now.

 

As it is, few are complaining that he's gone.

bleacherreport.com

 

I remember hearing the same thing about Andy McFail.

[Harry Chappas]

Oakland has a home field advantage unlike any other in sports. It would be like the black hawks doubling the size of the ice.