The Oakland Way, and how it can be applied to Sox

[caulfield12]

Perhaps not being 3rd in the majors in errors and 5th in unearned runs would help as well.

 

 

I can't remember where I saw something recently about how the White Sox are infamous for making it easier for their hitters to bunt down the lines (since we haven't had any really good bunters since Guillen and Karkovice)...just thought it was funny in this day and age for someone to bring it up like it actually gave the Sox an advantage over the last 20 years or so.

 

For groundskeeper Gene Bossard, lending the Chicago White Sox an underhanded hand was the family business. Gene managed the turf at Comiskey Park from 1940 to 1983, and when he stepped down, his son Roger took over operations. Together, the Bossards were known for doctoring and dampening the diamond to give the Sox a true home field advantage. In fact, opposing teams took to calling the infield "Bossard's Swamp," because Gene kept it watered down to benefit the Sox's sinkerball pitchers and to slow opposing baserunners.

 

Bossard's most infamous trick, however, seems to be inventing the "frozen baseball." Perhaps Roger Bossard explained the phenomenon best: "In the bowels of the old stadium my dad had an old room where the humidifier was constantly going. By leaving the balls in that room for 10 to 14 days, they became a quarter- to a half-ounce heavier." The Sox manager during the frozen ball era in the late 1960s? Number 7 on this list, Eddie Stanky.

neatorama.com

Edited June 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[oldsox]

Oh yea Marte. Also while doing some research for this thread I ran across the name: Mike MacDougal. Also, Nick Massett was a thing for a minute. Coop can't fix'em all -- but overall the Sox have acquired so much low cost above replacement pitching it's kept them afloat and papered over a really bad position player development history.

Other teams have gotten pitchers off the scrap heap who helped.

[Y2Jimmy0]

http://www.nbcsports.com/baseball/mlb/oakland-way

 

Great article, long, but as always with Posnanski, worth reading.

 

 

1) They don't invest in toolsy outfielders who strike out way too many times compared to their walk rates...they have brought in players like Cespedes, Crisp and Gentry at the major league level with lots of athleticism, but they don't try to make athletes into ballplayers as a consistent drafting/development philosophy.

 

2) They aren't afraid to use platoons and make back-up plans, even when those guys are hitting as well as Moss (see the trade for Kyle Blanks example) this season.

 

3) With pitching, target strikethrowers and "outs getters" more than being overly concerned with radar guns and K's, especially in stadiums with lots of foul territory and dead fog nights where the ball doesn't carry. That would lead to the White Sox taking either Aiken or Nola over the likes of Rodon/Kolek. It might also have something to do with what's going on with Beck and Danish. See examples of Kazmir and Millone, who throws the same velocity-wise as Buehrle and Chen. Pitch movement/effectiveness, etc.

 

"I would say there are three or four things that we concentrate on when it comes to pitching," Zaidi says. He then lists off what he readily admits are relatively basic things that you will hear from most teams -- stuff like command and intelligence and a proven track record of performance (and building a strong defense that can help a pitcher prevent runs). He talks about the talent A's pitching coach Curt Young has for helping pitchers find effective ways of getting batters out.

 

4) Don't use the bullpen in conventional ways or follow the textbook...be imaginative (or the opposite of Ventura for much of his time in Chicago). Also, be willing to admit you're wrong with guys like Johnson and be willing to go with an untested Doolittle (and quickly).

 

5) The biggest lesson, perhaps...not getting discouraged with one or two failures at the major league level, but having longer-lasting confidence in their original assessments on players and their AA/AAA results (see Donaldson, Josh). Don't get too discouraged or give up too quickly on a Marcus Semien when he gets overmatched and has a lot of traits you like in his minor league statistics (pitch taking/working the count, OBP, low K/BB ratios, even to the point where there are more BB's than walks).

 

6) No matter how ugly a guy's scouting profile or lack of tools, does he get on base? Does he limit the number of outs he gives up to the opposition? The White Sox are 5th in the majors in runs scored and 15th in OBP (.319). Meanwhile, Oakland is first (.340).

 

7) Keep trying to figure out ways to improve the defensive metrics...a long ways to go in that area. Control runs allowed.

 

8) Core of position players getting 60-65% of your at-bats or more in the 25-31 age range. CHECK.

 

Good article. I think Beane is a really good GM but a lot of that stuff is done out of necessity. I wish Beane would have taken the Boston job in hindsight so I could see how he would GM a team with unlimited resources. He is very good at finding inefficiencies in the market and getting everything he can out of players. He has to though. Bob Melvin is a really good manager and Oakland is great at platoons but I feel like they have to do the platoon thing because they just don't have the resources to do anything else.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Traded, I might add, as a low level minor league throw in from the Cubs in the Rich Harden deal.

 

That is one I think is important. When you trade away guys, steal some lottery tickets from a team's lowest minor league levels.

 

 

Donaldson was also a catcher at the time of that trade.

[Y2Jimmy0]

You want the Sox to start losing every single playoff series they're ever in?

 

 

No but i'd like to be there as often as they are.

[Balta1701]

Donaldson was also a catcher at the time of that trade.

One of the things that infuriated me about Kenny is he didn't seem to understand how valuable guys like that could be. He gave up David Holmberg as a throw-in and then a couple years later he turned into a fairly touted prospect for the D-Backs. Hasn't had big league success yet but could have been a great chip for the White Sox to use in a trade. Then there's the Molina trade; gave up Santos, got a single prospect back, that guy busted and so basically the return for Sergio was 0.

[southsider2k5]

One of the things that infuriated me about Kenny is he didn't seem to understand how valuable guys like that could be. He gave up David Holmberg as a throw-in and then a couple years later he turned into a fairly touted prospect for the D-Backs. Hasn't had big league success yet but could have been a great chip for the White Sox to use in a trade. Then there's the Molina trade; gave up Santos, got a single prospect back, that guy busted and so basically the return for Sergio was 0.

 

I've never seen Homberg deemed as a throw in by either side.

[caulfield12]

It's not like platoons can't work.

 

At one point, we were looking at going into the season with DeAza/Viciedo, Dunn/Konerko and maybe Semien/Gillaspie at 3B...and not sure how long Flowers would survive receiving 80% of the playing time, either.

 

That said, none of those hitters are in the same area code right now as the incredible numbers that B.Moss is putting up this season.

 

We also never anticipated having Garcia, Eaton, Gillaspie, Beckham and Abreu all getting injured, and DeAza completely falling off the map.

Edited June 3, 2014 by caulfield12

[LittleHurt05]

The problem with this is that the theory is based on a player using the averages such as OBP to be succeesful. This works in the regular season where you get to face average or below average pitchers. This type of player has less of a chance in the playoffs against good to great pitchers which the playoff teams typically have. This is why they don't do as well in the playoffs.

 

In a 7 game series the talent wins not playing the averages. Of course, going by the averages occasinally they do win.

 

That's interesting. The baseball playoffs can be such a crapshoot and I hate to make judgements off such small sample sizes. That being said, something has to give if Oakland consistently loses in the playoffs, it might be more than luck and randomness.

 

Of course I would take the Sox WS title over the A's zero titles in recent years, but given that the Sox have only made the playoffs one other time in 13 seasons, I can't really say that the Sox way is better than Oakland's.

[witesoxfan]

The problem with this is that the theory is based on a player using the averages such as OBP to be succeesful. This works in the regular season where you get to face average or below average pitchers. This type of player has less of a chance in the playoffs against good to great pitchers which the playoff teams typically have. This is why they don't do as well in the playoffs.

 

In a 7 game series the talent wins not playing the averages. Of course, going by the averages occasinally they do win.

 

 

That's interesting. The baseball playoffs can be such a crapshoot and I hate to make judgements off such small sample sizes. That being said, something has to give if Oakland consistently loses in the playoffs, it might be more than luck and randomness.

 

Of course I would take the Sox WS title over the A's zero titles in recent years, but given that the Sox have only made the playoffs one other time in 13 seasons, I can't really say that the Sox way is better than Oakland's.

 

It's not the craziest theory I've ever read.

 

2014 - 20-8 .500

2013 - 56-32 .500

2012 - 47-24 .500

2010 - 44-28 .500

 

[Eminor3rd]

Every team is worse against good player than they are against bad players. The "OBP only works in large samples" thing is totally bonkers -- OBP is strongly correlated with winning, all the good teams have good OBP no matter how they're built. There isn't anything remotely close to enough data to make any conclusion about the "Oakland way" working or not working in the postseason. There are lots of hypotheses, and people should feel free to cling to them, but they should also know that there aren't facts to back those hypotheses up.

[ptatc]

Every team is worse against good player than they are against bad players. The "OBP only works in large samples" thing is totally bonkers -- OBP is strongly correlated with winning, all the good teams have good OBP no matter how they're built. There isn't anything remotely close to enough data to make any conclusion about the "Oakland way" working or not working in the postseason. There are lots of hypotheses, and people should feel free to cling to them, but they should also know that there aren't facts to back those hypotheses up.

It's correlated to winning against all teams and pitchers including the bad to average ones.

 

If you take away the bad to average pitchers who give up more walk and hits the average hitter will not fair as well. However, the highly talented player has a better chance. This is what happens in the playoffs.

 

It doesn't always workout of course as all players have bad games and series. However, the Oakland practice of less talented players but with the high OBP and such has a lesser chance to succeed than the talented player.

 

Now in Oakland Beane needs to do this a with his payroll. He needs to take these chances and make the team look good during the season to maximize his earnings from the fan base.

This doesn't mean that all teams should adopt this model that do not have his same limitations.

[Eminor3rd]

It's correlated to winning against all teams and pitchers including the bad to average ones.

 

If you take away the bad to average pitchers who give up more walk and hits the average hitter will not fair as well. However, the highly talented player has a better chance. This is what happens in the playoffs.

 

It doesn't always workout of course as all players have bad games and series. However, the Oakland practice of less talented players but with the high OBP and such has a lesser chance to succeed than the talented player.

 

Now in Oakland Beane needs to do this a with his payroll. He needs to take these chances and make the team look good during the season to maximize his earnings from the fan base.

This doesn't mean that all teams should adopt this model that do not have his same limitations.

 

The Beane model isn't necessarily about OBP, though, it's about punting skills that the market values and hoarding skills that the market ignores. It's about accepting (and finding a way to mitigate) a player's flaws for the sake of acquiring his strengths at a discount. That OBP happened to be undervalued when Moneyball was written was just coincidence.

[ptatc]

The Beane model isn't necessarily about OBP, though, it's about punting skills that the market values and hoarding skills that the market ignores. It's about accepting (and finding a way to mitigate) a player's flaws for the sake of acquiring his strengths at a discount. That OBP happened to be undervalued when Moneyball was written was just coincidence.

I agree, OBP was just the example that you said was correlated to winning. However, it applies to everything he uses as well. He uses data based on all of the games played. Which as I stated before includes the poorer teams and pitchers. It works in the regular season but it is not the same sample that occurs during the post season. This is only the good teams or players

 

This is why I think it doesn't necessarily apply to being successful in the post-season.

 

 

edit: you could look at the players in a retrospective study and see how they do against only the top 20 pitchers or so. This may tell you more about the validity of the process, if post season success is your goal.

Edited June 3, 2014 by ptatc

[iamshack]

I think there is something else at work in Oakland as well, and it is a positive symptom of their limited resources. As a result of Oakland's limited resources, they very rarely can afford to enter into large contracts. While this forces them to find players with some warts, it insulates them from two things: 1) disastrous long-term contracts, and 2) over-reliance on particular players due to those long-term contracts. Thus, Oakland always has contingency plans. They've always got another guy that can step in because they don't have prohibitive favorites at many positions. This allows for a more flexible roster, it probably creates better team chemistry, and it keeps them better prepared to address the unexpected or unknown. They aren't married to any particular method of doing things, because they can't afford to; their only chance of success demands being able to acclimate on the fly.

[Dick Allen]

They are winning by getting on base, hitting homers and having a pitching staff with a team ERA under 3.00. Beane has definitely picked his roster well, but I wouldn't say he has reinvented the wheel in regards to how and why they win. Josh Donaldson busts out into one of the better players in the game as a 27 year old. Kudos to Beane for sticking with him and having him the organization, but there is also a little luck there as well.

Edited June 3, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Eminor3rd]

I agree, OBP was just the example that you said was correlated to winning. However, it applies to everything he uses as well. He uses data based on all of the games played. Which as I stated before includes the poorer teams and pitchers. It works in the regular season but it is not the same sample that occurs during the post season. This is only the good teams or players

 

This is why I think it doesn't necessarily apply to being successful in the post-season.

 

 

edit: you could look at the players in a retrospective study and see how they do against only the top 20 pitchers or so. This may tell you more about the validity of the process, if post season success is your goal.

 

That would indeed be an interesting study. I'd guess it would mirror that of most players. It seems to me that only the very elite are hitting well against high end pitching. But that could be enough of a difference that the $200m spenders could have a conceivable advantage.

[caulfield12]

It's correlated to winning against all teams and pitchers including the bad to average ones.

 

If you take away the bad to average pitchers who give up more walk and hits the average hitter will not fair as well. However, the highly talented player has a better chance. This is what happens in the playoffs.

 

It doesn't always workout of course as all players have bad games and series. However, the Oakland practice of less talented players but with the high OBP and such has a lesser chance to succeed than the talented player.

 

Now in Oakland Beane needs to do this a with his payroll. He needs to take these chances and make the team look good during the season to maximize his earnings from the fan base.

This doesn't mean that all teams should adopt this model that do not have his same limitations.

 

 

Well, one writer with the Detroit Free Press is apparently blaming their playoff problems on two specific positions in the batting order...not pitching, not shaky bullpen or fielding issues.

 

 

The Tigers are 27th in the majors in OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) from the fifth spot in the batting order. Their RBI production ranks 18th overall in the majors. They rank 28th in RBI production and OPS from the sixth spot.

 

That’s the biggest problem with this team. That’s why they lost Tuesday.

 

It’s why they’ve failed in the playoffs the past two years.

 

As great as the Prince Fielder trade was for the Tigers in unloading a bad contract — as well as acquiring Ian Kinsler — it created another hole in a batting order that already was challenged at providing run production. Victor Martinez has performed at an All-Star level replacing Fielder in the cleanup spot behind Miguel Cabrera. But it created another hole in the lineup that Austin Jackson and others haven’t adequately filled.

 

Blaming the bullpen for the Tigers’ recent inconsistencies might make the panicked feel a little better, but it doesn’t address the real issues facing this team if they’re indeed a serious championship contender.

 

Drew Sharp (freep.com/sports)

Edited June 4, 2014 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

Well, one writer with the Detroit Free Press is apparently blaming their playoff problems on two specific positions in the batting order...not pitching, not shaky bullpen or fielding issues.

 

 

The Tigers are 27th in the majors in OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) from the fifth spot in the batting order. Their RBI production ranks 18th overall in the majors. They rank 28th in RBI production and OPS from the sixth spot.

 

That’s the biggest problem with this team. That’s why they lost Tuesday.

 

It’s why they’ve failed in the playoffs the past two years.

 

As great as the Prince Fielder trade was for the Tigers in unloading a bad contract — as well as acquiring Ian Kinsler — it created another hole in a batting order that already was challenged at providing run production. Victor Martinez has performed at an All-Star level replacing Fielder in the cleanup spot behind Miguel Cabrera. But it created another hole in the lineup that Austin Jackson and others haven’t adequately filled.

 

Blaming the bullpen for the Tigers’ recent inconsistencies might make the panicked feel a little better, but it doesn’t address the real issues facing this team if they’re indeed a serious championship contender.

 

Drew Sharp (freep.com/sports)

Ok. So he pointed out they have poor production from a single spot in the batting order. That's his opinion as to why the run production is down. It really has nothing to do with acquiring "lesser talented" players in favor of the model that Oakland follows.

[Dick Allen]

Well, one writer with the Detroit Free Press is apparently blaming their playoff problems on two specific positions in the batting order...not pitching, not shaky bullpen or fielding issues.

 

 

The Tigers are 27th in the majors in OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) from the fifth spot in the batting order. Their RBI production ranks 18th overall in the majors. They rank 28th in RBI production and OPS from the sixth spot.

 

That’s the biggest problem with this team. That’s why they lost Tuesday.

 

It’s why they’ve failed in the playoffs the past two years.

 

As great as the Prince Fielder trade was for the Tigers in unloading a bad contract — as well as acquiring Ian Kinsler — it created another hole in a batting order that already was challenged at providing run production. Victor Martinez has performed at an All-Star level replacing Fielder in the cleanup spot behind Miguel Cabrera. But it created another hole in the lineup that Austin Jackson and others haven’t adequately filled.

 

Blaming the bullpen for the Tigers’ recent inconsistencies might make the panicked feel a little better, but it doesn’t address the real issues facing this team if they’re indeed a serious championship contender.

 

Drew Sharp (freep.com/sports)

He is saying the failed in the playoffs because of the 5th and 6th spot in the order? Or is he saying the line up is too weak? Just looking at the stats from the ALCS where the Tigers were eliminated last year, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta were batting in those spots. Victor put up an .841 OPS in the series, Peralta around .750.

[witesoxfan]

He is saying the failed in the playoffs because of the 5th and 6th spot in the order? Or is he saying the line up is too weak? Just looking at the stats from the ALCS where the Tigers were eliminated last year, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta were batting in those spots. Victor put up an .841 OPS in the series, Peralta around .750.

 

And this is why I love statistics. I'm not trying to bring anything up, but this guy is probably going to say that they failed in "clutch" spots, but the fact of the matter is, those guys did well, period. What does he want them to do, get base hits in every at bat? That's simply not plausible.

 

The Tigers lost in the playoffs because Leyland managed the bullpen like horses***. There's really no other reason.

[caulfield12]

Ok. So he pointed out they have poor production from a single spot in the batting order. That's his opinion as to why the run production is down. It really has nothing to do with acquiring "lesser talented" players in favor of the model that Oakland follows.

 

 

Using the phrase "lesser talented" is a bit dangerous. Moss is 8th in the majors in OPS, Seth Smith (the quintessential A's player, even though he's now on the Padres) is 9th and Donaldson is 16th but 2nd in WAR to Tulowitzki.

 

Arguably, Cespedes is as talented as any player in the game.

 

If we use "lesser talented" to mean one or two tool players...or incorrectly assessed...or "undervalued," that's a whole different type of discussion.

 

You're right though, the recent examples of Kazmir and Bartolo Colon (two more undervalued/"lesser talented" starters), when compared to the top of the line free agent line starters, or even Santana/Jimenez/Garza...support/reinforce this prevailing idea that the A's will never never outbid the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers.

 

The only counter-example, once again, is Cespedes, and he has a very unique contract that lets him become a free agent after just 4 seasons.

 

 

 

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/i...eat-team-exists

 

Casey McGehee has been the cleanup hitter behind all-universe Giancarlo Stanton, and while he's driven in 36 runs he also has one home run. The Marlins are trying to compete with a cleanup hitter who has one home run. In 2014, that doesn't even sound that silly, but it's also a warning: He's not going to keep hitting .426 with runners in scoring position. (sounds a lot like Conor Gillaspie!)

 

The Mariners beat the Braves 7-5 as the bullpen tossed six scoreless innings against the hitting-impaired Braves (that's the first-place Braves). The Mariners are 30-28, essentially tied with the 29-27 Orioles for the second wild card. This is a team whose DHs are hitting .189 and its first basemen .218. And they have a better run differential than the Tigers. It's that kind of season.

 

A week ago, every Mets fan was fed up and wanted manager Terry Collins and GM Sandy Alderson fired. The Mets were a win away from reaching .500 on Tuesday before suffering a walk-off loss to the Cubs. Now Mets fans are asking who they should be going after at the trade deadline instead of who they should be trading away. It is that kind of season, where one good week makes a team interesting again.

 

Like the Indians. A little five-game winning streak has pushed them up to 29-30. That means they're in the playoff race. They beat the World Series champion Red Sox, who featured a lineup with first baseman Brock Holt, right fielder Alex Hassan and shortstop Jonathan Herrera. The Red Sox are 27-30 and happy to be there after that 10-game losing streak.

 

And so on. The Royals have two home runs combined from their first basemen and DHs (mostly Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler) and yet they're 28-30 after beating the Cardinals 8-7. That's the 30-29 Cardinals, a team barely better than a team that has two home runs from first base and DH. Yes, that kind of season.

 

 

Parity or mediocrity? Do you like it? In some ways, isn't this what the sabermetric revolution has wrought? As front offices match each other on multiple fronts -- evaluating players correctly, spending money in an efficient manner -- and Selig has chipped away at some of the financial advantages of the bigger markets, isn't this the inevitable result? That playoff berths will be determined by whether Casey McGehee hits well all season with runners in scoring position?

 

I'm reminded of what a friend told me about the Mets-Phillies games this weekend, when they played consecutive games of 14, 14 and 11 innings. I asked him if it was exciting baseball. "It was terrible baseball," he said.

 

In the midst of all this are the Oakland A's. The A's just creamed the second-place Angels in three straight games and Tuesday night they played a good game at Yankee Stadium, scoring a run in the eighth off nearly untouchable Dellin Betances to tie it and then three more in the 10th. Brandon Moss led off the 10th with a home run, his second of the game and the A's would tack on two more runs.

 

To me, the A's -- even more than the Giants -- are the one team in baseball without an obvious weakness. Moss is a legit masher in the middle of the lineup, with 15 home runs and a .598 slugging percentage. Third baseman Josh Donaldson is an MVP candidate. Scott Kazmir, who pitched well in this game, has been great in the rotation behind Sonny Gray. The defense is solid, the bullpen is good (other than deposed closer Jim Johnson) and the manager doesn't do ridiculous things like bat Endy Chavez leadoff or Wil Nieves second.

 

In this season of parity, we may have just one great team.

Edited June 4, 2014 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

And this is why I love statistics. I'm not trying to bring anything up, but this guy is probably going to say that they failed in "clutch" spots, but the fact of the matter is, those guys did well, period. What does he want them to do, get base hits in every at bat? That's simply not plausible.

 

The Tigers lost in the playoffs because Leyland managed the bullpen like horses***. There's really no other reason.

 

 

And there's now an "anti-Prince Fielder" bug catching in the Detroit media after the comments he's made, both after last season's disappointing playoffs and this year before the two teams (Rangers and Tigers) played recently and there was a possibility Prince might play at that time still.

 

It's quite convenient to blame everything on a Fielder/Bonds/A-Rod type villain.

Edited June 4, 2014 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

And there's now an "anti-Prince Fielder" bug catching in the Detroit media after the comments he's made, both after last season's disappointing playoffs and this year before the two teams (Rangers and Tigers) played recently and there was a possibility Prince might play at that time still.

 

It's quite convenient to blame everything on a Fielder/Bonds/A-Rod type villain.

Even more convenient when that player is no longer playing for the local team.

[Kyyle23]

Using the phrase "lesser talented" is a bit dangerous. Moss is 8th in the majors in OPS, Seth Smith (the quintessential A's player, even though he's now on the Padres) is 9th and Donaldson is 16th but 2nd in WAR to Tulowitzki.

 

 

He spent a majority of his career in Colorado