2014 White Sox draft pick thread

[Baron]

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/20...g-with-jackson/

 

Looks like the Mariners made some progress with Jackson. They are using the same strategy we are.

[maggsmaggs]

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/20...g-with-jackson/

 

Looks like the Mariners made some progress with Jackson. They are using the same strategy we are.

Also interesting because Jackson is represented by Boras.

[Y2Jimmy0]

So what does the consensus think on Rodon: 1. Boras is just delaying because he's Boras. 2. Boras is holding out for the entire bonus pool plus the overage. 3. The Sox are trying to keep around $500,000-$600,000 for Montes de Oca.

 

I believe that Rodon will sign. Even though there isn't much leverage, I could see it going awhile just because Boras is Boras though. If the holdup is Reinsdorf not paying an overage that is technically allowed though, he should just sell the team. I have nothing to prove that that would be the reason but not going over because they've never done it before is ass backwards logic. Especially when you dumped salary last year and just ate Jeff Keppinger's contract.

[oldsox]

So what does the consensus think on Rodon: 1. Boras is just delaying because he's Boras. 2. Boras is holding out for the entire bonus pool plus the overage. 3. The Sox are trying to keep around $500,000-$600,000 for Montes de Oca.

 

I believe that Rodon will sign. Even though there isn't much leverage, I could see it going awhile just because Boras is Boras though. If the holdup is Reinsdorf not paying an overage that is technically allowed though, he should just sell the team. I have nothing to prove that that would be the reason but not going over because they've never done it before is ass backwards logic. Especially when you dumped salary last year and just ate Jeff Keppinger's contract.

I can sympathize with Reinsdorf a bit, if that is the case above. The slot amount is there for a reason, and it was negotiated as part of the CBA. The two higher picks went under their slots. No need for Sox to go way over, just because it's Boras on the other end. It's not like we lose the pick; we get similar pick next year if he doesn't sign.

[oneofthemikes]

Any new info for us today, Rock?

[cabiness42]

So what does the consensus think on Rodon: 1. Boras is just delaying because he's Boras. 2. Boras is holding out for the entire bonus pool plus the overage. 3. The Sox are trying to keep around $500,000-$600,000 for Montes de Oca.

 

I believe that Rodon will sign. Even though there isn't much leverage, I could see it going awhile just because Boras is Boras though. If the holdup is Reinsdorf not paying an overage that is technically allowed though, he should just sell the team. I have nothing to prove that that would be the reason but not going over because they've never done it before is ass backwards logic. Especially when you dumped salary last year and just ate Jeff Keppinger's contract.

 

No, not even close. It's not about whether or not ownership is willing to part with an extra $500K. It's about how this negotiation impacts another current negotiation (de Oca) and setting a precedent for future negotiations. Why should Rodon feel like he's entitled to be paid over slot when nobody else in the first round is getting it?

[southsider2k5]

So what does the consensus think on Rodon: 1. Boras is just delaying because he's Boras. 2. Boras is holding out for the entire bonus pool plus the overage. 3. The Sox are trying to keep around $500,000-$600,000 for Montes de Oca.

 

I believe that Rodon will sign. Even though there isn't much leverage, I could see it going awhile just because Boras is Boras though. If the holdup is Reinsdorf not paying an overage that is technically allowed though, he should just sell the team. I have nothing to prove that that would be the reason but not going over because they've never done it before is ass backwards logic. Especially when you dumped salary last year and just ate Jeff Keppinger's contract.

 

If you expect that, you are rooting for the wrong team.

[Y2Jimmy0]

If you expect that, you are rooting for the wrong team.

 

 

Okay great thanks for the tip.

[southsider2k5]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 1m

 

3rd-rder Jakson Reetz signs w/@Nationals for $800k (pick 93 value = $567,300). Best all-around HS C in @MLBDraft

 

FWIW, that is only $40k more than Jace Fry, the Sox 3rd round pick. It will be interesting to see how that one works out.

[southsider2k5]

The board's consensus favorite player in the draft outside of the big names.

 

That is exactly why I mentioned it.

[southsider2k5]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 5m

 

No. 6 overall pick Alex Jackson agrees to terms w/@Mariners. Trying to pin down exact $ (north of $4 mil). Pick value = $3,575,900 @MLBDraft

[maggsmaggs]

Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 5m

 

No. 6 overall pick Alex Jackson agrees to terms w/@Mariners. Trying to pin down exact $ (north of $4 mil). Pick value = $3,575,900 @MLBDraft

Looks like the Mariners will be paying an overage.

[bmags]

Looks like the Mariners will be paying an overage.

 

Yeah, but on the other hand...High Schooler.

[caulfield12]

The board's consensus favorite player in the draft outside of the big names.

 

 

Seems like their experience with Ayala is convincing them they don't have 4-5 years of time to wait development-wise.

 

Maybe...that said, if you have anything close to a playable bat to go with solid catching/leadership skills, it's clear-sailing on the fast-track to the big leagues.

[southsider2k5]

Everytime I see a new post in this thread I click it hoping to see Rodon signed. When it isn't the latest post. It makes me sad.

[GGajewski18]

Everytime I see a new post in this thread I click it hoping to see Rodon signed. When it isn't the latest post. It makes me sad.

 

I get the same feeling

[oneofthemikes]

Pretty sure everyone is dealing with that right now. This is brutal.

[knightni]

Hahn: No Update In Rodon Negotiations

[witesoxfan]

Really, they're playing a game of chicken, and Boras will eventually lose. If Rodon returns to school, he's risking $6 million to try and potentially earn an additional $2.5 mill, and he could lose as much as all of that $6 mill (though it likely be closer to losing $2-4 mill).

 

Had this been prior to the last CBA, there's no way the Sox would have drafted Rodon because Boras would have been asking for $12 mill and he could have let it known well before the draft. The Sox likely would have taken Nola or Hoffman. With the slot, the Sox are likely offering the full slot value to Rodon while Boras is asking for $6.5-7 mill (or something along those lines) and both sides say "we're not moving." Boras realizes how important it is for his client to get the most and safest possible contract, but he also realizes that the White Sox badly want his client under contract. The Sox could likely wait until the very last second and Rodon would eventually sign, but they may cave a little to get him under contract sooner("if he signs by July 4th, we'll give him $6.25 mill, but that offer will be withdrawn beyond that date and will revert to a slot valued deal beyond that").

 

Either way, there's still a 99.999% chance of getting it done.

 

[caulfield12]

Really, they're playing a game of chicken, and Boras will eventually lose. If Rodon returns to school, he's risking $6 million to try and potentially earn an additional $2.5 mill, and he could lose as much as all of that $6 mill (though it likely be closer to losing $2-4 mill).

 

Had this been prior to the last CBA, there's no way the Sox would have drafted Rodon because Boras would have been asking for $12 mill and he could have let it known well before the draft. The Sox likely would have taken Nola or Hoffman. With the slot, the Sox are likely offering the full slot value to Rodon while Boras is asking for $6.5-7 mill (or something along those lines) and both sides say "we're not moving." Boras realizes how important it is for his client to get the most and safest possible contract, but he also realizes that the White Sox badly want his client under contract. The Sox could likely wait until the very last second and Rodon would eventually sign, but they may cave a little to get him under contract sooner("if he signs by July 4th, we'll give him $6.25 mill, but that offer will be withdrawn beyond that date and will revert to a slot valued deal beyond that").

 

Either way, there's still a 99.999% chance of getting it done.

 

 

It would be interesting to see how much the policy that Scherzer took out against that $144 million he passed on would pay him if he went down with labrum/shoulder surgery and never was the same again...there's just no way that Rodon could get an insurance policy (let's say, worth $7 million) where it would make sense to ensure against injury for a rate that wouldn't cost more than what he's going to lose if he doesn't sign for $6.1 million, for example.

 

Let's say the insurance policy was $900,000 against that $7 million in future salary/signing bonus and he ended up with a career-threatening surgery next season at NC State. That would still be a pretty crazy risk.

 

According to Boras' research, most of the pitchers going down with TJ surgery are in their first four years in the big leagues. Once a pitcher passes that point without having had an major problems, the odds are dramatically lower for a 1st TJ (at least that's the argument he's selling teams interested in a long-term deal with Scherzer).

[TheTruth05]

Really, they're playing a game of chicken, and Boras will eventually lose. If Rodon returns to school, he's risking $6 million to try and potentially earn an additional $2.5 mill, and he could lose as much as all of that $6 mill (though it likely be closer to losing $2-4 mill).

 

Had this been prior to the last CBA, there's no way the Sox would have drafted Rodon because Boras would have been asking for $12 mill and he could have let it known well before the draft. The Sox likely would have taken Nola or Hoffman. With the slot, the Sox are likely offering the full slot value to Rodon while Boras is asking for $6.5-7 mill (or something along those lines) and both sides say "we're not moving." Boras realizes how important it is for his client to get the most and safest possible contract, but he also realizes that the White Sox badly want his client under contract. The Sox could likely wait until the very last second and Rodon would eventually sign, but they may cave a little to get him under contract sooner("if he signs by July 4th, we'll give him $6.25 mill, but that offer will be withdrawn beyond that date and will revert to a slot valued deal beyond that").

 

Either way, there's still a 99.999% chance of getting it done.

 

I think i've seen you explain this like 15 times already , but this basically sums it up in my mind

[oldsox]

Really, they're playing a game of chicken, and Boras will eventually lose. If Rodon returns to school, he's risking $6 million to try and potentially earn an additional $2.5 mill, and he could lose as much as all of that $6 mill (though it likely be closer to losing $2-4 mill).

 

Had this been prior to the last CBA, there's no way the Sox would have drafted Rodon because Boras would have been asking for $12 mill and he could have let it known well before the draft. The Sox likely would have taken Nola or Hoffman. With the slot, the Sox are likely offering the full slot value to Rodon while Boras is asking for $6.5-7 mill (or something along those lines) and both sides say "we're not moving." Boras realizes how important it is for his client to get the most and safest possible contract, but he also realizes that the White Sox badly want his client under contract. The Sox could likely wait until the very last second and Rodon would eventually sign, but they may cave a little to get him under contract sooner("if he signs by July 4th, we'll give him $6.25 mill, but that offer will be withdrawn beyond that date and will revert to a slot valued deal beyond that").

 

Either way, there's still a 99.999% chance of getting it done.

You don't know what you are talking about, just guessing. You said the same thing a week ago, IIRC. Odds get lower every day. Frankly, I wish Sox would take a portion of that money and throw it at de Oca. Sox have plenty of leverage, since they get #4 next year if Rodon does not sign. Boras won't hesitate to send him back to NC State next fall -- he has done it before

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Anyone know what the consensus was that Mark Appel would sign after the 2012 draft? He was picked #8 overall by the Pirates, was/is advised by Scott Boras, and Boras got the kid to stay in college another year and it ended up earning him the #1 overall pick in 2013. I wonder if he is going to suggest the same strategy to Rodon.

 

EDIT: Here is what Pirate's GM said after they drafted Appel in 2012..... "We're very optimistic we have a legitimate shot to sign Mark."

 

Sounds kind of like Hahn? Boras made a comment after the deadline passed saying that the Pirates would have needed to offer their ENTIRE draft pool to sign Appel, more than double the assigned value of the 8th pick.

Edited June 20, 2014 by Chilihead90

[fathom]

You don't know what you are talking about, just guessing. You said the same thing a week ago, IIRC. Odds get lower every day. Frankly, I wish Sox would take a portion of that money and throw it at de Oca. Sox have plenty of leverage, since they get #4 next year if Rodon does not sign. Boras won't hesitate to send him back to NC State next fall -- he has done it before

 

de Orca might be the most overrated draft pick in the history of White Sox baseball. He's an intriguing prospect, but you absolutely cannot go after him until you know the outcome of Rodon.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

de Orca might be the most overrated draft pick in the history of White Sox baseball. He's an intriguing prospect, but you absolutely cannot go after him until you know the outcome of Rodon.

 

He's not being overrated, he is just the only tough sign that we have, therefore he gets a lot of attention from us. We have no one else to talk about other than Rodon and MDO.