2014 White Sox draft pick thread

[southsider2k5]

Anyone know what the consensus was that Mark Appel would sign after the 2012 draft? He was picked #8 overall by the Pirates, was/is advised by Scott Boras, and Boras got the kid to stay in college another year and it ended up earning him the #1 overall pick in 2013. I wonder if he is going to suggest the same strategy to Rodon.

 

EDIT: Here is what Pirate's GM said after they drafted Appel in 2012..... "We're very optimistic we have a legitimate shot to sign Mark."

 

Sounds kind of like Hahn? Boras made a comment after the deadline passed saying that the Pirates would have needed to offer their ENTIRE draft pool to sign Appel, more than double the assigned value of the 8th pick.

 

Find me any GM who said he just drafted a guy who he didn't think he could sign with his #1 pick.

[oldsox]

Appel and Drew were #1's that Boras controlled who did not sign. Were there any others?

[Dick Allen]

Anyone know what the consensus was that Mark Appel would sign after the 2012 draft? He was picked #8 overall by the Pirates, was/is advised by Scott Boras, and Boras got the kid to stay in college another year and it ended up earning him the #1 overall pick in 2013. I wonder if he is going to suggest the same strategy to Rodon.

 

EDIT: Here is what Pirate's GM said after they drafted Appel in 2012..... "We're very optimistic we have a legitimate shot to sign Mark."

 

Sounds kind of like Hahn? Boras made a comment after the deadline passed saying that the Pirates would have needed to offer their ENTIRE draft pool to sign Appel, more than double the assigned value of the 8th pick.

The story is Appel was offered below slot to go #1 by the Astros in 2012. They supposedly offered him $6 million. Best case scenerio he goes #1 in 2013 and winds up signing 18% below slot for $6.35 million. He made a little money, but he had to go #1 to make it, and is now struggling. It's possible Boras goes that route again, but very doubtful. The Sox can throw a lot more money at Rodon than the Pirates could with the #8 pick. He'll sign, but when does Boras have guys sign quickly? It serves HIM no purpose to have guys sign for near slot right away. It would be as if they really didn't need him.

[Dick Allen]

Appel and Drew were #1's that Boras controlled who did not sign. Were there any others?

Matt Harrington, Bobby Seay.

 

It would be extremely dumb for Rodon not to sign unless he just doesn't want to play for the White Sox under any circumstance. His risk is not worth any possible reward.

 

Kris Bryant was a Boras guy. He signed a day or 2 before the deadline for just above slot. Don't be surprised if you see the same thing here. It really is no big deal Rodon gets a break from pitching. It may be a blessing. There is really nothing to suggest he won't sign. The rules have changed. There is no huge windfall to be had playing another year in college. If anything it may slow his advancement. See Appel for instance. Maybe if he signs in 2012, he doesn't have his current struggles and he is a year or 2 ahead of his current schedule to make huge money.

[BlackSox13]

I think Wite is spot on with the Rodon/Borass business. Let's face it, the Sox really are in a better position. If Rodon walks, he carries this draft baggage with him next year and has to try to improve upon a #3 draft status. The Sox would get the #4 pick next year plus they are currently a top ten team for next years draft which could leave them with two top ten picks in 2015. Two top ten picks for a rebuilding team combined with negotiating with Boras might enough for the Sox to give Boras and Rodon both the finger.

 

Edit: just to clarify. When I say give Boras and Rodon the finger, Im saying draw a line in the sand and not budge. I really think Rodon has more to lose than the Sox.

Edited June 20, 2014 by StRoostifer

[ChiSoxJon]

Well we can either sign prime TJS candidate Rodon and pray he stays healthy and can start by 2015 and pitch outta the 'pen this year or screw Rodon and sign MDO, get the no. 4 overall pick next year, and load up our system

[witesoxfan]

You don't know what you are talking about, just guessing. You said the same thing a week ago, IIRC. Odds get lower every day. Frankly, I wish Sox would take a portion of that money and throw it at de Oca. Sox have plenty of leverage, since they get #4 next year if Rodon does not sign. Boras won't hesitate to send him back to NC State next fall -- he has done it before

 

No, I know exactly what I'm talking about and you are a conspiracy pessimist who believes that Murphy's Law plays out true more often then common f***ing sense.

 

Until the day he doesn't sign, there's a 99.999% chance he signs. I'll even upgrade it to 99.9999%, just for you.

[Dick Allen]

Basically trading Rodon for de Oca and the #4 pick next year is a horrible trade.

[witesoxfan]

Basically trading Rodon for de Oca and the #4 pick next year is a horrible trade.

 

Failing to sign Rodon would signify a mega failure on the White Sox front office.

[BlackSox13]

Failing to sign Rodon would signify a mega failure on the White Sox front office.

Failure as in the Sox drafting a guy in the first round they can't sign?

[witesoxfan]

Failure as in the Sox drafting a guy in the first round they can't sign?

 

Not can't. If they offered him slot value, he'd sign eventually. It would be insanity if he didn't.

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

It really makes no sense for Rodon not to sign. For argument's sake, if he does not sign he goes into the draft next year as a college SR with absolutely zero leverage. The team drafting him could offer him basically whatever they wanted (within reason) and he either has to take it or not play baseball

[BlackSox13]

Not can't. If they offered him slot value, he'd sign eventually. It would be insanity if he didn't.

OK, I see. If the Sox are offering slot value ( im sure they are) and Rodon is willing to accept slot or a tick above, then this really is a non issue. Just need to be patient. I really don't see Rodon turning away from 6M, Boras or not.

[NorthSideSox72]

Appel and Rodon are not the same. One factor people aren't mentioning here is, Rodon was taken #3 overall. That means, to have it make sense to not sign and go next year, you have to take everything into account risk-wise, with the only possible reward to occur if he goes #2 or #1 next year. Think about how much risk there is, for a reward that is very unlikely to occur (being the #1 or #2 pick)... and as a senior that year he'd have nearly zero leverage and probably have to sign below slot anyway, thus reducing or eliminating that reward if it were to even occur.

 

Rodon turning down slot would be an epic failure on his part.

 

[Feeky Magee]

Appel and Rodon are not the same. One factor people aren't mentioning here is, Rodon was taken #3 overall. That means, to have it make sense to not sign and go next year, you have to take everything into account risk-wise, with the only possible reward to occur if he goes #2 or #1 next year. Think about how much risk there is, for a reward that is very unlikely to occur (being the #1 or #2 pick)... and as a senior that year he'd have nearly zero leverage and probably have to sign below slot anyway, thus reducing or eliminating that reward if it were to even occur.

 

Rodon turning down slot would be an epic failure on his part.

I agree with most of your analysis, but why is it "very unlikely" that Rodon would be the #1 or #2 pick next year?

[maggsmaggs]

Appel and Rodon are not the same. One factor people aren't mentioning here is, Rodon was taken #3 overall. That means, to have it make sense to not sign and go next year, you have to take everything into account risk-wise, with the only possible reward to occur if he goes #2 or #1 next year. Think about how much risk there is, for a reward that is very unlikely to occur (being the #1 or #2 pick)... and as a senior that year he'd have nearly zero leverage and probably have to sign below slot anyway, thus reducing or eliminating that reward if it were to even occur.

 

Rodon turning down slot would be an epic failure on his part.

And it is definitely not in his best interest to be pitching 150 pitches per start while throwing sliders as the majority of those pitchers.

 

It is still SUPER early in the signing process. There shouldn't be any worry until we are one week away from the signing deadline and he is not in the fold.

[royoung]

Appel and Rodon are not the same. One factor people aren't mentioning here is, Rodon was taken #3 overall. That means, to have it make sense to not sign and go next year, you have to take everything into account risk-wise, with the only possible reward to occur if he goes #2 or #1 next year. Think about how much risk there is, for a reward that is very unlikely to occur (being the #1 or #2 pick)... and as a senior that year he'd have nearly zero leverage and probably have to sign below slot anyway, thus reducing or eliminating that reward if it were to even occur.

 

Rodon turning down slot would be an epic failure on his part.

 

I agree, which disappoints me that he didn't sign for slot quickly and include a spot on the 40 man roster or something. At least that way Boras could spin it that he did something for the guy. With the longer he hold outs, in my mind the less likely he signs for slot because what the hell was he waiting for then?

[Feeky Magee]

I'd rather we paid overslot than included a deal to fast track him to the bullpen. By all accounts he needs to work on his changeup to become a truly effective starter, and after a year of barely using it at NC State, I wouldn't want him straight in the bullpen and working exclusively fastball-slider.

[ptatc]

I agree, which disappoints me that he didn't sign for slot quickly and include a spot on the 40 man roster or something. At least that way Boras could spin it that he did something for the guy. With the longer he hold outs, in my mind the less likely he signs for slot because what the hell was he waiting for then?

He is trying to get every penny he can. The thing most people aren't looking at is what if he sucks as an MLB pitcher? Starting his clock early makes no difference if he is no good. You get all the money you can because you don't know how you will be later. This needs to be the mind set right now.

[NorthSideSox72]

I agree with most of your analysis, but why is it "very unlikely" that Rodon would be the #1 or #2 pick next year?

Well, consider the scenario that gets him there. In addition to having to beat out all but maybe 1 of the entire field of other players who will be available (which is already a long-odds event anyway), he also has to stay healthy, improve his performance and skills, and there is no telling what the field will look like next June. Also, how many players have a college year strong enough to be the #3 pick and then have an even stronger year the next? Seems obvious to me the chances of that are slim.

 

But again, even if he does make the slim chance occurs, his leverage is now gone as a college senior. He'd end up probably taking below slot, thus not making much more money (if any) anyway, even in that ideal scenario.

 

What I think is more likely here is some combination of: Sox offering below slot at first, and the Rodon/Boras camp asking for above slot hoping to get the number to move up before the deadline. It means we lose a month or so of Rodon's professional development, but honestly with him having pitched a full college season already, that isn't a huge loss.

 

 

[ptatc]

I'd rather we paid overslot than included a deal to fast track him to the bullpen. By all accounts he needs to work on his changeup to become a truly effective starter, and after a year of barely using it at NC State, I wouldn't want him straight in the bullpen and working exclusively fastball-slider.

That is pretty much what everyone does. Most relief pitchers go with the number 1 and 2 pitches exclusively. Most of the time that is why they are in the pen.

The obvious advantage here is that he could work with Cooper, Thigpen and Salas on the change up if he was with the Sox.

[Feeky Magee]

Well, consider the scenario that gets him there. In addition to having to beat out all but maybe 1 of the entire field of other players who will be available (which is already a long-odds event anyway), he also has to stay healthy, improve his performance and skills, and there is no telling what the field will look like next June. Also, how many players have a college year strong enough to be the #3 pick and then have an even stronger year the next? Seems obvious to me the chances of that are slim.

 

But again, even if he does make the slim chance occurs, his leverage is now gone as a college senior. He'd end up probably taking below slot, thus not making much more money (if any) anyway, even in that ideal scenario.

 

What I think is more likely here is some combination of: Sox offering below slot at first, and the Rodon/Boras camp asking for above slot hoping to get the number to move up before the deadline. It means we lose a month or so of Rodon's professional development, but honestly with him having pitched a full college season already, that isn't a huge loss.

Again, I agree with most of it, but I wouldn't see it as a very slim chance he goes #1 or #2. He was the consensus number 1 prospect heading into this year, had a year which was seen as relatively disappointing and still was considered by most as the #2 prospects, sliding to #3 after a surprise pick at #2, in what was considered a good draft.

 

In fact, the fact that his leverage is way lower as a senior makes it even more likely he'd go #1 or #2, you'd get a premium talent and the probability of an underslot deal.

 

I'm nitpicking really, I agree with the premise that he should sign.

 

That is pretty much what everyone does. Most relief pitchers go with the number 1 and 2 pitches exclusively.

That was my point.

[BlackSox13]

That is pretty much what everyone does. Most relief pitchers go with the number 1 and 2 pitches exclusively. Most of the time that is why they are in the pen.

The obvious advantage here is that he could work with Cooper, Thigpen and Salas on the change up if he was with the Sox.

Look what the change up has done for Sale's game. Rodon, take note!

[Dick Allen]

Again, I agree with most of it, but I wouldn't see it as a very slim chance he goes #1 or #2. He was the consensus number 1 prospect heading into this year, had a year which was seen as relatively disappointing and still was considered by most as the #2 prospects, sliding to #3 after a surprise pick at #2, in what was considered a good draft.

 

In fact, the fact that his leverage is way lower as a senior makes it even more likely he'd go #1 or #2, you'd get a premium talent and the probability of an underslot deal.

 

I'm nitpicking really, I agree with the premise that he should sign.

 

 

That was my point.

He would pretty much have to go 1 or 2 to get anywhere near what the Sox will give him this year. A lot can go wrong. One thing which I just read a couple of days ago, the White Sox could collapse, get one of those top picks, and would need Rodon's permission to draft him again. They probably wouldn't bother. Wite's not always right, but his odds of Rodon signing with the White Sox before July 18th are correct IMO. It makes zero sense not to sign, you just have to go through the Boras song and dance for a while.

[royoung]

He is trying to get every penny he can. The thing most people aren't looking at is what if he sucks as an MLB pitcher? Starting his clock early makes no difference if he is no good. You get all the money you can because you don't know how you will be later. This needs to be the mind set right now.

 

It's a small gamble now (difference of maybe a couple hundred thousand) that could impact millions of dollars for him later. He could be a ineffective sure, but it's basically betting on yourself and he seems like a confident kid. The big money for him is going to earned in the majors.